tysonlowery
Stealing Modifications
May 11, 2003 at 10:27PM View BBCode
I have made some changes to stolen bases.
Your manager prefs for Speed will be weighed twice as high as other factors. So you take 1 part base & outs, 1 part score, 1 part inning, and 2 parts runner speed to determine whether to run or not.
I may look to give you direct control over this in the future as an enhancement.
Also, I took Chris's suggestion and made it more difficult to steal bases if you are being aggressive, and less difficult if you are being conservative.
Overall, I slightly increased the chance that a guy would steal, and slightly decreased the chances that he would be successful.
Let me know how this plays out with your teams.
Bob
May 12, 2003 at 03:49PM View BBCode
So far in 4 games my team has been successful stealing 2 out of 8 times. I'd classify my settings as generally aggressive, but not overly so. 3 of the games were against a catcher with a C+ arm and 1 against a B arm. The speed rating of the successful guys: A and B+. Speed of the guys who got caught: A-, A-, A-, B+, C+ and C-. So, for 6 attempts by guys rated B+ or above, only 2 were successful. Seems a little extreme, particularly since all these were against a C+ arm.
My opponents have been successful 12 out of 16 attempts. My primary catcher has a B arm and my backup a B-. An average of 4 attempts per games seems excessive, even for a very aggressive team. Also a 75% success rate seems a tad high, particularly against above-average arms.
Essentially, we've got conflicting data -- likely due to the too small sample size. The one thing I would conclude so far is that there are way too many attempts being made.
hcboomer
May 12, 2003 at 04:24PM View BBCode
The new tweaks would have kicked in beginning with which games?
Also, since I am now in full rebuilding mode I'm open to any kind of experimentation with the preferences. Right now I've got everything ratcheted to ultra aggressive to see what happens, and I can definitely see that there is a poor enough success rate that no team would want to do that across the board, even with a fast team. Don't know yet whether that tendency is increasing with the changes, but I'll keep an eye on it.
If there's any mix of preferences that Tyson or someone else would particularly like to see the effects of, let me know and I'll make my team the guinea pig.
BC
May 12, 2003 at 07:06PM View BBCode
I'm not sure when this started either, but in my last five games my team is 5 of 17 stealing. Those 12 times caught stealing are about 40% of my season total. My pitcher was thrown out twice and my D- speed catcher was thrown out once. Outside of those players, I have nobody in my starting lineup under a B for speed.
I went in and adjusted the steal settings. We'll see how that affects things.
My opponents in those series vs. my B armed catcher were 11 of 18 stealing. Three+ steals per game does seem very high. Only KC and Washington average close to that at this point with just under 2.5 steal attempts per game.
tysonlowery
May 12, 2003 at 07:16PM View BBCode
They may have been in effect for the 6:15 game yesterday, I can't remember. Definitely for the games today though.
I'll probably do another statistical analyisis of different speeds and strategies to see what the results are.
FiveToolPlayer
May 12, 2003 at 07:17PM View BBCode
Wow, Chicago AL is 137 for 149 in the stollen base department. That's impressive / not realistic.
andrew
May 12, 2003 at 08:19PM View BBCode
This most recent game my team went 5 for 11 in SB tries.
I can tell that you made those changes ;)
http://www.simdynasty.com/beta/boxscore.jsp?boxscoreid=11012&cityid=3
FiveToolPlayer
May 12, 2003 at 08:27PM View BBCode
Yeah, it looks like my squad is the go-go Matrix right now. Everyone is running.
FiveToolPlayer
May 12, 2003 at 08:33PM View BBCode
On a different note, I still think there should be another option that says "Never Attempt To Steal". I don't care how fast a guy is, I don't want him trying to steal third with two outs.
Here is an example:
Inning: 9 Washington
Fred Beckmann grounds out to the second baseman. Max Niland grounds out to the second baseman. Cal Huston doubles. Cal Huston is out trying to steal third.
Here's the game [url=http://www.simdynasty.com/beta/boxscore.jsp?boxscoreid=10972&cityid=8]link[/url]
BC
May 13, 2003 at 01:42PM View BBCode
I want to post a follow up on this discussion. I have a new catcher and he is sloooow (D- speed). I never want him to run. His job is to be like Edgar, get on and run 90 feet at a time.
Back to back games vs. a poor catcher.
Inning: 6 Philadelphia
John Cudworth flies out to the left fielder. Steve Owen singles. Beany Lafata singles. Steve Owen advances to third on the hit. Shaun Potter walks. Jamie Curtis grounds into a force play to the third baseman. Steve Owen is out at home. Hal Rollings singles. Beany Lafata scores. Shaun Potter scores. Jamie Curtis is out trying to steal third.
With Bataan at bat, I don't think my slow catcher should try to steal and kill the rally. I have settings at "Moderate" on 6th inning or before, "moderate" with two outs, and "Ultra Conservative" for D speed players.
Next game:
Inning: 6 Philadelphia
Johnny Ellis strikes out. Jamie Curtis walks. Jamie Curtis is out trying to steal second. Bernie Murray flies out to the right fielder.
The pitcher was up next. I would rather see Curtis wait for Murray to bat, if he gets on, then the pitcher could sacrifice. If not, let the pitcher bat so that the leadoff hitter can start the next inning, not my pitcher. Again, Curtis is slow.
Curtis now has 4 steals and 6 CS on the season. I want to put a leash on players like this.
These are games 65 and 66.
Hope this helps a little.
And thanks for correcting the spelling of "receive" on the post page.
hcboomer
May 13, 2003 at 03:08PM View BBCode
I agree that some sort of "never steal" option needs to be incorporated. Certainly that's realistic in a baseball sense -- plenty of players never even try to steal, or have a red light under plenty of specific game conditions. Maybe the "never" shouldn't precisely translate to never, but rather some very small percentage chance of running in certain situations, otherwise there will be an entire league's worth of D-speed runners with no attempts at all. But it makes sense to want to chain certain guys to the base.
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