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maxthesax
A few players had eye opening seasons in 05 - for example:
Closer Jeff Mullin: one of 5 A rated relievers (he's A,A) finished 27 in the league in ERA (and as there are 21 A- or better pitchers, this means that 6 B+ rated pitchers outperformed an A rated pitcher) - but it gets worse!!! His whip ranked 29th in the league.
Not to be outdone - my #2 reliever Angel Warner, an A- overall (A,B) ranked 59th in era - meaning just about every B+ rated reliever out performed him. His Whip wasn't much better as he ranked #37.
Let's compare Warner to 2 other A,B relievers: Schwabe and Quarles (both from the same division). Warner's ERA 4.50, Schwabe 3.83, Quarles 2.95
And look at Mullin vs the other A rated relievers - Mullin 3.71 and a 1.29 whip... the other 3 had ERA of 2.60,2.09,1.78 - yeah baby well over 1 run more per game (and in one case almost 2).
Whip wise that 1.29 sucked as well - compare to 1.20,1.04, and 0.94
the other huge area of concern - stolen bases:
the AL caught 28.8% of runner trying to steal (and this includes nailing B rated guys) - and yet..... Danny Alvarez - with A+ rated speed was caught 11x out of 31 attempts (caught 36%) and Danny Clark, also with A+ speed was caught 18 out of 47 (caught 39%)
let's compare those lovely pcts with some of the other basestealers in the AL: some A+ guys: Niarhos 40/49 (18.4% caught), Buford 29/34 (15%) Gerhart 31/38 (19%) - yeah, my guys were caught twice as often!!!
And here's some A rated stealers for good measure: Osborne 43/53 (19%), Maddox 29/40 (27.5).
And how about an A- speed: Doubleday 33/41 (20%) (yep, Clark was caught twice as much as a guy with A- speed... and I should mention that, based on his imp points I know that Clark's actual number is at minimum 96/100!
Of course the underachievers don't stop there - in the outfield, Larry Track a C+(48) A+(100) righty, B+(73) A+(99) lefty hit a whopping 230 with a 423 Slgpct.
Compare to Hofstetter a C+A+ from both sides of the plate: 264 with a 460 slg.
Or Dave Hook same B+A+ lefty and a B+ A- Righty - 283 with 33 hrs and a 498 slg pct
or: Cy Lopez, double B+ righty and A-, A lefty: yeah baby, 307 with 25 homers and a 503 slg pct.
And saving the best until last: my lovely starting rotation.
there are 41 A- or better rated pitchers and 94 rated B+ or better. my A(89),B(66) (A- overall) ranked 65th in whip and 44 in era (cool, half the B+ rated pitchers did better)!. (my other A- with the same A,B came in with an acceptable 14 in whip and 24th in ERA). One of my B+ pitchers, who is on the verge of A- (74,78 ) finished 70th in whip and 73rd in ERA.
I should also mention that these pitchers were actually helped by a defense that was #2 in least errors and #4 in +/- - otherwise these chumps would have been even worse.
watching this season go down the tubes I was amused the all the times when A rated fielders failed to make plays in critical situations, while coming up with web gems in blowout games - or all the times my A+ steal guys would get nailed by mediocre armed catchers, only to have the next batter hit what would have been a run scoring hit - and of course the clincher - all the times when Warner and Mullin would get the first two batters in a save situation and then cough up 3 or 4 straight hits... I'm just wondering if the law of averages will ever catch up, or if Balt will continue to be cursed.
autopsy of a failed season (or, why I love SD)
July 09, 2013 at 06:45PM View BBCode
In 2001, with a bunch of young players on the roster, Balt finished at 69-93. in 2002,2003,and 2004 Balt had the most imp points in the league. Where did all this improvement get them... 80-82 exactly for 3 years running. Now, coming into 2005, Balt had the 2nd most imp points... and finished a lovely 72-90... so an improving team (improving more than the other teams in the AL) actually played worse!A few players had eye opening seasons in 05 - for example:
Closer Jeff Mullin: one of 5 A rated relievers (he's A,A) finished 27 in the league in ERA (and as there are 21 A- or better pitchers, this means that 6 B+ rated pitchers outperformed an A rated pitcher) - but it gets worse!!! His whip ranked 29th in the league.
Not to be outdone - my #2 reliever Angel Warner, an A- overall (A,B) ranked 59th in era - meaning just about every B+ rated reliever out performed him. His Whip wasn't much better as he ranked #37.
Let's compare Warner to 2 other A,B relievers: Schwabe and Quarles (both from the same division). Warner's ERA 4.50, Schwabe 3.83, Quarles 2.95
And look at Mullin vs the other A rated relievers - Mullin 3.71 and a 1.29 whip... the other 3 had ERA of 2.60,2.09,1.78 - yeah baby well over 1 run more per game (and in one case almost 2).
Whip wise that 1.29 sucked as well - compare to 1.20,1.04, and 0.94
the other huge area of concern - stolen bases:
the AL caught 28.8% of runner trying to steal (and this includes nailing B rated guys) - and yet..... Danny Alvarez - with A+ rated speed was caught 11x out of 31 attempts (caught 36%) and Danny Clark, also with A+ speed was caught 18 out of 47 (caught 39%)
let's compare those lovely pcts with some of the other basestealers in the AL: some A+ guys: Niarhos 40/49 (18.4% caught), Buford 29/34 (15%) Gerhart 31/38 (19%) - yeah, my guys were caught twice as often!!!
And here's some A rated stealers for good measure: Osborne 43/53 (19%), Maddox 29/40 (27.5).
And how about an A- speed: Doubleday 33/41 (20%) (yep, Clark was caught twice as much as a guy with A- speed... and I should mention that, based on his imp points I know that Clark's actual number is at minimum 96/100!
Of course the underachievers don't stop there - in the outfield, Larry Track a C+(48) A+(100) righty, B+(73) A+(99) lefty hit a whopping 230 with a 423 Slgpct.
Compare to Hofstetter a C+A+ from both sides of the plate: 264 with a 460 slg.
Or Dave Hook same B+A+ lefty and a B+ A- Righty - 283 with 33 hrs and a 498 slg pct
or: Cy Lopez, double B+ righty and A-, A lefty: yeah baby, 307 with 25 homers and a 503 slg pct.
And saving the best until last: my lovely starting rotation.
there are 41 A- or better rated pitchers and 94 rated B+ or better. my A(89),B(66) (A- overall) ranked 65th in whip and 44 in era (cool, half the B+ rated pitchers did better)!. (my other A- with the same A,B came in with an acceptable 14 in whip and 24th in ERA). One of my B+ pitchers, who is on the verge of A- (74,78 ) finished 70th in whip and 73rd in ERA.
I should also mention that these pitchers were actually helped by a defense that was #2 in least errors and #4 in +/- - otherwise these chumps would have been even worse.
watching this season go down the tubes I was amused the all the times when A rated fielders failed to make plays in critical situations, while coming up with web gems in blowout games - or all the times my A+ steal guys would get nailed by mediocre armed catchers, only to have the next batter hit what would have been a run scoring hit - and of course the clincher - all the times when Warner and Mullin would get the first two batters in a save situation and then cough up 3 or 4 straight hits... I'm just wondering if the law of averages will ever catch up, or if Balt will continue to be cursed.
spicoli306
As for pitching, yeah, your closer/setup guy regressed. However, the fact that your starters aren't where they need to be is what really made the difference. Vico and Abbott are still below average arms (and might not get much better). McGraner, Nielsen, and Shepherd are decent, but you still lack the 1 or 2 ace pitchers that Washington and Seattle have.
Don't mean to come off as annoying to you. Just trying to give you some unbiased perspective. :)
July 10, 2013 at 12:50AM View BBCode
You did have some bad luck this season, as your pythagorean had you at a 78-84. Of course, if you had been on the other side of luck, you could have probably finished with 84 or so wins. Even so, at the end of the day, Baltimore is competing with the top teams in the AL. Both Washington and Seattle are just better teams. Your hitters struggled because they're just not that good yet (even with all their past improvements). Roberts (.680 OPS), Melillo (.681), and Guzman (.732) are all still developing and haven't reached their peaks yet. Overcoming that lack of offense is more of a liability than some bad luck on the base paths.As for pitching, yeah, your closer/setup guy regressed. However, the fact that your starters aren't where they need to be is what really made the difference. Vico and Abbott are still below average arms (and might not get much better). McGraner, Nielsen, and Shepherd are decent, but you still lack the 1 or 2 ace pitchers that Washington and Seattle have.
Don't mean to come off as annoying to you. Just trying to give you some unbiased perspective. :)
maxthesax
Maybe it's just semantics, but when you are referring to Vico and Abbott as "below average"... you're probably referring to the fact that there are 41 A or A- starters in the league. Since there are 80 starting spots available, that would perforce mean that half the pitchers making starts are B+ or worse - making B+ the "average". As I mentioned, Vico's numerical grades have him on the verge of being an A- - he just doesn't pitch like it ;)
putting this another way - while the elite teams may have 4 or even 5 A- or better starters, most will have at least their 4th or 5th starters being B+. I certainly anticipated better improvements from my starting pitchers (most of my imp points seem to have gone to hitters - not that THEY are showing said improvements) - but since they haven't improved nearly as much as some other pitchers on other teams, this is what I'm saddled with (and yet here's another interesting stat from this season - my starting pitching compiled a really nice 70% quality starts (6 innings, 3 runs or less) - that alone should have made the team competitive). Throw in that my relievers were at 71% in not allowing inherited runs to score, and were at 75% in throwing shutout innings when they started an inning and yet I still had 2 pitchers in the top 10 in blown saves.
And as a final touch - should also point out that Roberts missed 1/3 of the season with injuries, and Clark 1/4 (and Mowe, my starting catcher lucked out by having a 41 game injury on the 2nd to last game of the season - thanks Abe!)
July 10, 2013 at 03:25PM View BBCode
I certainly respect your perspective, and on paper it would seem that Wash and Seattle have more horses, but what I find amusing (and frustrating) is that while I've garnered more imp points than anyone by a goodly margin these past 4 years, the players have yet to show those improvements, while a player like Dennis Smith still performs at close to his prime level at age 37 - I know for sure if he was in Balt, he'd be toast by now. Just the way the cookie crumbles.Maybe it's just semantics, but when you are referring to Vico and Abbott as "below average"... you're probably referring to the fact that there are 41 A or A- starters in the league. Since there are 80 starting spots available, that would perforce mean that half the pitchers making starts are B+ or worse - making B+ the "average". As I mentioned, Vico's numerical grades have him on the verge of being an A- - he just doesn't pitch like it ;)
putting this another way - while the elite teams may have 4 or even 5 A- or better starters, most will have at least their 4th or 5th starters being B+. I certainly anticipated better improvements from my starting pitchers (most of my imp points seem to have gone to hitters - not that THEY are showing said improvements) - but since they haven't improved nearly as much as some other pitchers on other teams, this is what I'm saddled with (and yet here's another interesting stat from this season - my starting pitching compiled a really nice 70% quality starts (6 innings, 3 runs or less) - that alone should have made the team competitive). Throw in that my relievers were at 71% in not allowing inherited runs to score, and were at 75% in throwing shutout innings when they started an inning and yet I still had 2 pitchers in the top 10 in blown saves.
And as a final touch - should also point out that Roberts missed 1/3 of the season with injuries, and Clark 1/4 (and Mowe, my starting catcher lucked out by having a 41 game injury on the 2nd to last game of the season - thanks Abe!)
maxthesax
Also - once again (every year except 1 since the +/- was added to SD) Baltimore was robbed of hits far beyond the league average (which was a -9.57 in the AL this season) - you would think that the law of averages would at least allow Balt to benefit half the time - but nope, every year but one, while the league gives away more hits than it robs, Balt ends up with more hits robbed from them than hits gifted.
and yeah, I may be crazy, but I do track this stuff... as each game is played I look at the play by play description - when it says "great play by the..." that's a takeaway (+ to the fielding stat), while a "base hit PAST the ..." is a giveaway (a - to the fielding stat).
July 10, 2013 at 03:39PM View BBCode
I should also mention that I wasn't anticipating winning the AL this season, but to continually watch players who "improved" during the off season actually put up worse numbers than 2 or 3 years ago is head scratching. That's my point.Also - once again (every year except 1 since the +/- was added to SD) Baltimore was robbed of hits far beyond the league average (which was a -9.57 in the AL this season) - you would think that the law of averages would at least allow Balt to benefit half the time - but nope, every year but one, while the league gives away more hits than it robs, Balt ends up with more hits robbed from them than hits gifted.
and yeah, I may be crazy, but I do track this stuff... as each game is played I look at the play by play description - when it says "great play by the..." that's a takeaway (+ to the fielding stat), while a "base hit PAST the ..." is a giveaway (a - to the fielding stat).
spicoli306
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=10071412&statsorimps=stats[/url]Case 1[/url]
His stats were best in the 2003 season even though he has improved quite a bit over the course of his development. Since 2003, he's improved almost exactly 1.5 grades in both CvR & PvR and 2 grades in both CvL & PvL. Add in about a full grade in Speed. So why is he not better??? Because his grades are still overmatched versus the superior pitching. The truth of the matter is developing players suck 90% of the time. Only once they fully develop can you expect them to be valuable.
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=10273199&statsorimps=stats]Case 2[/url]
Looks like [url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=9681173]Melillo[/url] and [url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=9804778]Roberts[/url] have hit the tipping point. Is this a realistic simulation of major league hitters? I don't think it should always happen this way, but there are many examples of young MLB hitters struggling to provide a valuable bat until right around their 27th birthday. If you compare SimDynasty to this, it makes it a little easier for me to deal with struggling young players.
On another note, [url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=9021965]Maloney[/url] was a significant upgrade from Vico even if his numbers don't show it yet.
August 02, 2013 at 03:03AM View BBCode
More proof that improvements don't always lead to better stats:[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=10071412&statsorimps=stats[/url]Case 1[/url]
His stats were best in the 2003 season even though he has improved quite a bit over the course of his development. Since 2003, he's improved almost exactly 1.5 grades in both CvR & PvR and 2 grades in both CvL & PvL. Add in about a full grade in Speed. So why is he not better??? Because his grades are still overmatched versus the superior pitching. The truth of the matter is developing players suck 90% of the time. Only once they fully develop can you expect them to be valuable.
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=10273199&statsorimps=stats]Case 2[/url]
Looks like [url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=9681173]Melillo[/url] and [url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=9804778]Roberts[/url] have hit the tipping point. Is this a realistic simulation of major league hitters? I don't think it should always happen this way, but there are many examples of young MLB hitters struggling to provide a valuable bat until right around their 27th birthday. If you compare SimDynasty to this, it makes it a little easier for me to deal with struggling young players.
On another note, [url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=9021965]Maloney[/url] was a significant upgrade from Vico even if his numbers don't show it yet.
maxthesax
You make a very interesting point - I wonder if SD has instituted a variable for "experience" - wherein a 24 year old hitter with the same grade as a 27 year old will not perform as well. Makes sense in mirroring MLB (not everyone is Buster Posey) - and yet odd in a statistical numerically based game.
August 02, 2013 at 03:17PM View BBCode
agreed, Maloney certainly should be a significant upgrade, that's why I dealt my all star catcher plus vico to get him.You make a very interesting point - I wonder if SD has instituted a variable for "experience" - wherein a 24 year old hitter with the same grade as a 27 year old will not perform as well. Makes sense in mirroring MLB (not everyone is Buster Posey) - and yet odd in a statistical numerically based game.
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