 |
View Old Forum Thread
Old Forum Index » Sim Forums » Other Comments » contact vs strikeouts
maxthesax
I now have a player who for the last 2 seasons has been a 86 contact against righties, and an honest to god 100 contact against lefties.
In real life, there have been mlb players who k'd less than 50x per season - I would assume that this would be your benchmark (ie 100 rating).
Now, my guy: he's 86/54 against rhp, which ain't great, but a 100/66 against lefties - so how many k's would you expect this guy to have against lhp? how about a 1 in 5 k ratio. Yep, so overall this guy who is an A contact rhp and an A+++ against lefties, has managed to strike out over 100x in each of the last two seasons. (and over 90 the year before that).
I would sure like to see something where a player with such a wand for a bat wouldn't be whiffing quite as often.
http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=9021944
[Edited on 3-12-2013 by maxthesax]
[Edited on 3-12-2013 by maxthesax]
contact vs strikeouts
March 12, 2013 at 11:03PM View BBCode
I keep track of all my player's development so I can say that these actual numbers are accurate (tracked from when a player received a dev point that increased his Alpha rating).I now have a player who for the last 2 seasons has been a 86 contact against righties, and an honest to god 100 contact against lefties.
In real life, there have been mlb players who k'd less than 50x per season - I would assume that this would be your benchmark (ie 100 rating).
Now, my guy: he's 86/54 against rhp, which ain't great, but a 100/66 against lefties - so how many k's would you expect this guy to have against lhp? how about a 1 in 5 k ratio. Yep, so overall this guy who is an A contact rhp and an A+++ against lefties, has managed to strike out over 100x in each of the last two seasons. (and over 90 the year before that).
I would sure like to see something where a player with such a wand for a bat wouldn't be whiffing quite as often.
http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=9021944
[Edited on 3-12-2013 by maxthesax]
[Edited on 3-12-2013 by maxthesax]
paulcaraccio
March 12, 2013 at 11:35PM View BBCode
yeah, everyone strikes out 100 times if they play the whole season. I'd also like to see a wider range.
maxthesax
while that may be true, it doesn't make it right. Glad you agree with me - there should be no way that the pinnacle of achievement (a 100 rating) should still guarantee you 100+ k's.
March 13, 2013 at 09:43PM View BBCode
Originally posted by paulcaraccio
yeah, everyone strikes out 100 times if they play the whole season. I'd also like to see a wider range.
while that may be true, it doesn't make it right. Glad you agree with me - there should be no way that the pinnacle of achievement (a 100 rating) should still guarantee you 100+ k's.
tm4559
the first outcome (given by the comparison of the batter's ratings to the pitcher's) is out, hit or walk. in other words, the batting average and obp comes from here. the contact rating, in this outcome, (besides its influence in the ratings comparison for the hit) increases the probability of the walk.
the second outcome is where the ratings of the hitter and historical stuff comes into play.
(what i call the "second outcome" is not another coin flip, but more a query, i believe, of the historical data base with the results of that query-what i call the second outcome- colored by certain ratings of the hitter).
if the first outcome is a hit, then, it can be a single, double, triple, home run or a great play by a fielder, a hit turned into an out. infield singles, the double, the triple, the home run, these are all with the hitter (more speed, triple, more power, home run, etc, and also there is stretching for doubles and triples).
the strikeout (when the first outcome is an out) mostly follows from (real life historical) data that relates the distribution of different outcomes that are outs. a certain percentage are fly outs, a certain percentage are ground outs, a certain percentage are ground outs and so on.
the ratings of the hitter are also in there. more contact means more ground outs and fly outs than strikeouts. more power means more stirkeouts.
but the driving force really is the number of outs. all batters make lots of outs. and a certain percentage (in a certain range, where the ratings vary it some) are going to be striketouts. so the high power hitter (with 600 or whatever at bats) might sttrike out 150 times. the high contact hitters with similar at bats strikes out 100 times.
the simulation isn't great at giving back outliers, like hitters that strike out very little, or low batting average hitters that hit lots of home runs and walk a lot. in the aggregate, the stats work out very close to real life.
May 30, 2013 at 01:21PM View BBCode
the strikeouts are really more about the second outcome than the first.the first outcome (given by the comparison of the batter's ratings to the pitcher's) is out, hit or walk. in other words, the batting average and obp comes from here. the contact rating, in this outcome, (besides its influence in the ratings comparison for the hit) increases the probability of the walk.
the second outcome is where the ratings of the hitter and historical stuff comes into play.
(what i call the "second outcome" is not another coin flip, but more a query, i believe, of the historical data base with the results of that query-what i call the second outcome- colored by certain ratings of the hitter).
if the first outcome is a hit, then, it can be a single, double, triple, home run or a great play by a fielder, a hit turned into an out. infield singles, the double, the triple, the home run, these are all with the hitter (more speed, triple, more power, home run, etc, and also there is stretching for doubles and triples).
the strikeout (when the first outcome is an out) mostly follows from (real life historical) data that relates the distribution of different outcomes that are outs. a certain percentage are fly outs, a certain percentage are ground outs, a certain percentage are ground outs and so on.
the ratings of the hitter are also in there. more contact means more ground outs and fly outs than strikeouts. more power means more stirkeouts.
but the driving force really is the number of outs. all batters make lots of outs. and a certain percentage (in a certain range, where the ratings vary it some) are going to be striketouts. so the high power hitter (with 600 or whatever at bats) might sttrike out 150 times. the high contact hitters with similar at bats strikes out 100 times.
the simulation isn't great at giving back outliers, like hitters that strike out very little, or low batting average hitters that hit lots of home runs and walk a lot. in the aggregate, the stats work out very close to real life.
tworoosters
While this type of realism would be nice it's not really that high on my personal list, an out is an out and I don't even look at how they happened any more.
May 30, 2013 at 03:56PM View BBCode
tm is correct, it would be nice to have the highs and lows but the sim doesn't have guys strikeout 200 times a year so it's not likely to have regulars strike out 50 times a year either.While this type of realism would be nice it's not really that high on my personal list, an out is an out and I don't even look at how they happened any more.
paulcaraccio
May 30, 2013 at 10:13PM View BBCode
I thought infield singles were minus plays...outs turned into hits by a defensive miscue that's not an error...no?Pages: 1