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tysonlowery
My analysis. Seems like we had too few A players in the initial draft - and maybe we need some more youngish A players in the initial draft - as well as some B+ type guys who will be around to take their place when the older guys start retiring in the mid 1950's. The overall talent of the long term beta league actually dropped between 1954 and 1956. The composition of the LT Beta league in 1956 is about on par with the BRL in 1956 - so looks like we have some more work to do.
If you want to add your comments, please keep the discussion to the topic - specifically altering the initial draft talent to more closely resemble where leagues stand in 1960's.
Talent Inflation Report
May 24, 2004 at 04:41PM View BBCode
I have updated this report. Remember, the goal in the beta league was to create an initial talent pool that more closely resembled where leagues ended up in the late 1950's, early 1960's when talent inflation tends to level off.My analysis. Seems like we had too few A players in the initial draft - and maybe we need some more youngish A players in the initial draft - as well as some B+ type guys who will be around to take their place when the older guys start retiring in the mid 1950's. The overall talent of the long term beta league actually dropped between 1954 and 1956. The composition of the LT Beta league in 1956 is about on par with the BRL in 1956 - so looks like we have some more work to do.
If you want to add your comments, please keep the discussion to the topic - specifically altering the initial draft talent to more closely resemble where leagues stand in 1960's.
tysonlowery has attached this file: Talent Inflation.xls (application/octet-stream)
Jack1
I think carrying out the talent level to a longer age worked, as I drafted older and have stayed competitive longer.
I think a few more "A" talented players may have made a few more teamms competitive earlier, but those players would have had to have been younger in age. It seems the majority of owners in single season drafted for younger talent in the initial draft.
Just my observation.
Jack1
I agree with your appraisal.
May 24, 2004 at 08:25PM View BBCode
The overall talent level seems lower than most leagues.I think carrying out the talent level to a longer age worked, as I drafted older and have stayed competitive longer.
I think a few more "A" talented players may have made a few more teamms competitive earlier, but those players would have had to have been younger in age. It seems the majority of owners in single season drafted for younger talent in the initial draft.
Just my observation.
Jack1
hobos
Not sure about the LT league, but I like where the ST is. We don't need more A players in the draft, especially younger ones. My C+ 2B is doing very good for me. I want this to continue. I like playing with competitive C+ players. Most of the good teams are old, the ST league figures to go into a full-scale rebuild. I can't wait for it, it would be very exciting for C+ or B- players to be league leaders. I know that there will still plenty be several B+ and higher guys, but there are way too many in some of the leagues
I don't think the talent will increase like the BRL did. Too many of the A guys are in their 30s and will soon retire. Talent inflation in the BRL is partly due to young guys in the initial draft, which were very scarce in the beta drafts. Give it another 5 years, I think the results will be very good
May 24, 2004 at 11:56PM View BBCode
Originally posted by tysonlowery
My analysis. Seems like we had too few A players in the initial draft - and maybe we need some more youngish A players in the initial draft - as well as some B+ type guys who will be around to take their place when the older guys start retiring in the mid 1950's.
Not sure about the LT league, but I like where the ST is. We don't need more A players in the draft, especially younger ones. My C+ 2B is doing very good for me. I want this to continue. I like playing with competitive C+ players. Most of the good teams are old, the ST league figures to go into a full-scale rebuild. I can't wait for it, it would be very exciting for C+ or B- players to be league leaders. I know that there will still plenty be several B+ and higher guys, but there are way too many in some of the leagues
The overall talent of the long term beta league actually dropped between 1954 and 1956. The composition of the LT Beta league in 1956 is about on par with the BRL in 1956 - so looks like we have some more work to do.
I don't think the talent will increase like the BRL did. Too many of the A guys are in their 30s and will soon retire. Talent inflation in the BRL is partly due to young guys in the initial draft, which were very scarce in the beta drafts. Give it another 5 years, I think the results will be very good
celamantia
--Chris
May 25, 2004 at 12:09AM View BBCode
I think it's too early to draw conclusions. If you did drop in a couple of A players, I'd put them between 29 and 33 so they hold down the fort until the kids grow up without unbalancing the league later.--Chris
ME
May 25, 2004 at 01:37AM View BBCode
I think soem of this has to do with the fact that there was a huge talent increase for 27-34 year olds, but no increase for 23-26 year olds, so the oldies remain good for a lot longer and there is no one to immediately fill in for them. There should probably be a small increase in talent to 23-26 year olds so added with teh improvements that they can stll get they will emerge as talented guys when the initial superstars get into the mid-30s.
tysonlowery
May 25, 2004 at 01:46AM View BBCode
I'm not sure why I didn't think of this before. But there are 3-4 leagues in the mid 1960s and beyond where talent has stabilized. I should emulate the talent levels in those leagues to a T and make that the talent level for the initial draft.
celamantia
There's still the probleem of over-drafting youth, though. Would it be so bad if players under 24 weren't eligible for the first 20 rounds or so of the draft?
May 25, 2004 at 02:15AM View BBCode
Originally posted by tysonlowery
I'm not sure why I didn't think of this before. But there are 3-4 leagues in the mid 1960s and beyond where talent has stabilized. I should emulate the talent levels in those leagues to a T and make that the talent level for the initial draft.
There's still the probleem of over-drafting youth, though. Would it be so bad if players under 24 weren't eligible for the first 20 rounds or so of the draft?
celamantia
Oops, sorry, that was off-topic.
May 25, 2004 at 02:17AM View BBCode
Originally posted by celamantia
Originally posted by tysonlowery
I'm not sure why I didn't think of this before. But there are 3-4 leagues in the mid 1960s and beyond where talent has stabilized. I should emulate the talent levels in those leagues to a T and make that the talent level for the initial draft.
There's still the probleem of over-drafting youth, though. Would it be so bad if players under 24 weren't eligible for the first 20 rounds or so of the draft?
Oops, sorry, that was off-topic.
tysonlowery
I'm working on some better data and spreadsheets that looks at league talent.
May 25, 2004 at 03:43AM View BBCode
Yes, its a different issue with a different solution.I'm working on some better data and spreadsheets that looks at league talent.
tysonlowery
[Edited on 5-25-2004 by tysonlowery]
May 25, 2004 at 10:22PM View BBCode
This document shows the talent of 4 leagues in different stages. I have charts and everything. This is just for batters. I'll be working on pitchers next. Then I'm going to try to create the parameters for setting up an initial draft to match this. In other words, figure out how many players of each age should be at each rating.[Edited on 5-25-2004 by tysonlowery]
tysonlowery
May 25, 2004 at 10:44PM View BBCode
Oops - this doesn't take into account guys on the waiverwire. Let me rework it...
geoffrey13
As for the long term league, I drafted quite young and still havent' been able to compete because the talent level of the younger players was so crappy. If this was a pay league I'd probably have dropped out after season 2. That's why some sort of standardizing should be put into place.
May 25, 2004 at 11:14PM View BBCode
I like the idea of somewhat standardizing the initial draft process in all leagues, I think it would work well and not create those weird looking teams that sometimes happen (25 minor league OF's)As for the long term league, I drafted quite young and still havent' been able to compete because the talent level of the younger players was so crappy. If this was a pay league I'd probably have dropped out after season 2. That's why some sort of standardizing should be put into place.
andrew
May 25, 2004 at 11:26PM View BBCode
Well I drafted young and my team is a playoff team now 3 years running. I think the key was not drafting too young... and getting Gallager (I know that is spelled wrong :rolleyes: ) #3 overall helped :D
DougB
I'm sorry - go back to the discussion. Just my 2 cents.
May 26, 2004 at 01:08AM View BBCode
I wish the beta was studying how to reduce improvements (or include a potential for decline in abilities when long term injuries happen?) rather than make players even higher rated. The leagues are far more interesting in the early 50's when the players are not all A- or A in every category.I'm sorry - go back to the discussion. Just my 2 cents.
tysonlowery
May 26, 2004 at 01:50AM View BBCode
That will be one of several dozen things we will be looking at.
hcboomer
I understand that we're trying to lift the initial talent to the level that it will later become. And it seems the approach has evolved to where we will attempt to match that initial talent level to where it has stabilized in several leagues.
But is that level where it stabilized desirable? Or are we more or less accepting the fact that the game's structure will invariably generate those talent levels, and therefore that's the base from which should be working?
My point here is that if we're focusing on how to raise the initial draft talent to the level of a mature league's talent, we'd better make sure those levels are right/healthy for the game. They may well be -- but it seems like that's also a question that needs to be addressed here.
May 26, 2004 at 03:55PM View BBCode
Something relevant is missing here, though. What level of talent SHOULD there be in the league?I understand that we're trying to lift the initial talent to the level that it will later become. And it seems the approach has evolved to where we will attempt to match that initial talent level to where it has stabilized in several leagues.
But is that level where it stabilized desirable? Or are we more or less accepting the fact that the game's structure will invariably generate those talent levels, and therefore that's the base from which should be working?
My point here is that if we're focusing on how to raise the initial draft talent to the level of a mature league's talent, we'd better make sure those levels are right/healthy for the game. They may well be -- but it seems like that's also a question that needs to be addressed here.
tysonlowery
The reasons I would like to address talent inflation in this way:
1) It will fit in nicely with existing leagues. A major overhaul to the percentages in the improvement system will have a profound effect on the 50 existing leagues.
2) It should be a fairly straightforward solution in that we're only modifying one of the variables. Its much more difficult to bulid an initial draft class, subsequent amateur draft classes, and an improvement system that will get players to the proper level by say 1963. By only changing the initial draft, we are only changing one of the factors.
3) Talent inflation is a medium issue in my mind. It needs to be fixed for sure. Making changes to all three factors to get the proper balance could take years to get right. I'd rather get a solution in place that works, then move on to other things like anti-tanking.
May 26, 2004 at 04:43PM View BBCode
I agree that the players need to be less homogenous which will be addressed with a modifcation to the improvement system (we discussed this in another thread).The reasons I would like to address talent inflation in this way:
1) It will fit in nicely with existing leagues. A major overhaul to the percentages in the improvement system will have a profound effect on the 50 existing leagues.
2) It should be a fairly straightforward solution in that we're only modifying one of the variables. Its much more difficult to bulid an initial draft class, subsequent amateur draft classes, and an improvement system that will get players to the proper level by say 1963. By only changing the initial draft, we are only changing one of the factors.
3) Talent inflation is a medium issue in my mind. It needs to be fixed for sure. Making changes to all three factors to get the proper balance could take years to get right. I'd rather get a solution in place that works, then move on to other things like anti-tanking.
tysonlowery
The Spreadsheet
May 26, 2004 at 04:44PM View BBCode
This spreadsheet charts batter talent over 4 different leagues. I'm not sure if I'm looking for any particular feedback from any of you - but I thought I would share it.tysonlowery has attached this file: Inflation Batters.xls (application/vnd.ms-excel)
tysonlowery
My plan is to get several of these changes ready in the next few months. Once the new Initial draft is ready, I will most likely start the Short Term beta league over to test the Initial draft. We will most likely run several drafts over the course of a couple weeks. Once some of the other things are ready, I will start the Long term beta league over as well. We'll probably run at a hyper-accelerated pace to get both leagues into the 1960s within a reasonable timeframe (probably about 30 games per day). I may slow down the short term beta league at times if there are day-to-day things that need testing.
May 26, 2004 at 04:50PM View BBCode
Oh, one other thing. I am planning on reworking the initial draft so that the talent levels are slightly less than what we see in these leagues. This is mainly because I will be making some slight modifications to the improvement logic and I also believe some of the anti-tanking measures could slow down inflation.My plan is to get several of these changes ready in the next few months. Once the new Initial draft is ready, I will most likely start the Short Term beta league over to test the Initial draft. We will most likely run several drafts over the course of a couple weeks. Once some of the other things are ready, I will start the Long term beta league over as well. We'll probably run at a hyper-accelerated pace to get both leagues into the 1960s within a reasonable timeframe (probably about 30 games per day). I may slow down the short term beta league at times if there are day-to-day things that need testing.
Grobby
May 27, 2004 at 02:46AM View BBCode
I like the tallent level we have experienced thus far, I have to agree that its still too early to make a really good analysis at this point. Much improved over the private leagues I been in as we enter the 5-10 years. Its definitly not as high as other leagues I been in, but honestly I think more enjoyable thus far. I'll weigh in on this after a couple more years expire to see if my opinion changes.
jer2911
I've got the rankings for '50 and '55, if I get a chance I'll do something similar to what I did for Beta III talent inflation tracking.
*curses the need to make money in the "real" world* :mad:
May 27, 2004 at 04:48AM View BBCode
I feel as though the talent level has been deflating a bit... but maybe that's just me.I've got the rankings for '50 and '55, if I get a chance I'll do something similar to what I did for Beta III talent inflation tracking.
*curses the need to make money in the "real" world* :mad:
tysonlowery
May 27, 2004 at 02:30PM View BBCode
Yeah, if you look at the first spreadsheet you'll see that many of the A players retired in LT Beta between 54 and 56 (check out both sheets).
tysonlowery
Pitchers Report
May 27, 2004 at 06:33PM View BBCode
Here is the report I created for pitchers. I'm going to be analyzing this data this afternoon.tysonlowery has attached this file: Inflation Pitchers.xls (application/vnd.ms-excel)
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