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tysonlowery

Draft Just Ran, But I'm Rerunning it

August 28, 2002 at 03:52PM View BBCode

The draft was still too weak. I'm deleting it and giving it another try.
tysonlowery

August 28, 2002 at 04:02PM View BBCode

Okay, what do you think, still too weak? Or just right? Gotta love that Number 1 pick though.
FiveToolPlayer

August 28, 2002 at 04:04PM View BBCode

WOW!!! That pitcher is a stud and he's 17!!!! Glad I have him.
FiveToolPlayer

August 28, 2002 at 04:07PM View BBCode

Actually, why is everyone so old? I would think that in the 50s, probably 75% of draftees would be high school kids. Maybe more. In this draft, only 2 of the 16 first rounders are under 20.
hcboomer

August 28, 2002 at 04:15PM View BBCode

I think it's still too weak. If we still had the 15-player minors, I'd probably toss all but the first pick -- and even that guy doesn't have much of a future.
DougPaz

August 28, 2002 at 04:37PM View BBCode

I got a big nothing in the draft and I'm the 6th team to pick. (1st round = C+ 21 yr old 2B) There is nothing available in the waiver wire. I had two guys retire and a couple more that should have and I still have no way of improving. :P
dawgfan

August 28, 2002 at 05:10PM View BBCode

Still too weak IMO, unless changes are made to the player improvement algorithms to speed up development. I also think we need to really re-evaluate young pitchers - given the steady progression of ability within this game, a 17 year-old kid that's already a B- or higher as a pitcher is going to be a Hall-of-Famer by 25. I think surefire stud young pitchers should be very rare.
hcboomer

August 28, 2002 at 05:28PM View BBCode

That's a key point in all this -- without changes in how players develop, in terms of speed or perhaps random spikes for certain players, you can pretty much look at this draft, like the one before the '53 season, look at the ratings and ages, and immediately toss out all but your first pick. 20-year-old C- guys have no chance to be anything worthwhile. Seems like the first two or three rounds should be stocked with players who are at least developable -- long-term maybe, but with a chance to be somewhat useful several seasons down the road. And I think the first third to first half of the first round should have players with at least some immediate value.

What would worry me about the paid leagues is that someone with a poor team seeing an amateur draft providing no useful new talent will not stick around for the long haul, feeling there's little chance to lift that team up. There actually is a chance, but it takes a lot of maneuvering -- and plenty of players may not want to put that kind of work into it.
Bob

August 28, 2002 at 05:35PM View BBCode

I agree that it seems a little weak -- particularly in the first round. I would guess the first 4 picks should be "B" level, the next 8 "B-" level and the final four picks of the 1st round should be "C+" level. For the 2nd round, I would aim for all "C+" players. For round 3, I'd target 8 "C+" players and 8 "C" players. Round 4 would be all C players. The first 10 picks of round 5 would be "C" players and the last 6 picks would be "C-" players.

To look at it another way, I would suggest the draft should have:

4 "B" players
8 "B-" players
28 "C+" players
34 "C" players
and the rest "C-" or lower

This would mean the team with the worst record would end up with players rated B, C+, C+, C and C. The team picking 9th wouild get B-, C+, C, C and C players. The team picking last would get C+, C+, C, C and C- players.

This strikes me as about the right balance, and this draft (and the last one) seem to fall a bit short.
Anonymous

August 28, 2002 at 05:37PM View BBCode

Maybe some random improvements after year one would be helpful. Maybe a few younger guys jump from a C or C+ to a B (attribute it to extra training in the offseason or steroids in the offseason or whatever). There are always a few guys like this in the majors (Shea Hillenbrand is a prime example).
FiveToolPlayer

August 28, 2002 at 05:39PM View BBCode

That last post was from me.
DougPaz

August 28, 2002 at 05:55PM View BBCode

CHoosing 6th I got:

1st = C+
2nd = C
3rd = C
4th = D+
5th = D+

None of these players will help me for a minimum of 4 to 5 years in the minors. Even then, they will just be average players. So now I have an aging team with no prospects of getting better without raping and pillaging someone with a trade that somehow is devised.
hcboomer

August 28, 2002 at 06:13PM View BBCode

An offshoot problem from this is that there is less and less young talent for rebuilding teams to trade FOR from other teams. If every team has a couple of good young prospects, some can be had for a bad team trading away veterans. But the last two amateur drafts have brought precious little new talent into the league. So everyone's getting older, there are few new young prospects coming into the league, and the poor teams will have that much more difficulty climbing to respectability unless they're already very young.

The draft before the '51 season was much too rich in talent -- in that case most every team was getting 4-5 roster-worthy guys. Fifth-rounders in that draft would be among the top 5 picks in the most recent drafts. The optimum talent level is somewhere in between. Bob's breakdown above seems about right.
geoffrey13

coaching points

August 28, 2002 at 06:32PM View BBCode

with the extra 5 players added and the low quality available in the draft we really should have more coaching points available. I think 30 is a good number...that way maybe some of these kids will get better. As it is with 3 or more kids taking 5 points each there's no way of improving.:(
FiveToolPlayer

August 28, 2002 at 07:59PM View BBCode

If it was 30 coaching points, it would still be hard to improve unless somebody improves almost every game. If one person improves every few games, it would take a long time to improve your squad.
FiveToolPlayer

August 28, 2002 at 08:03PM View BBCode

Are we keeping this draft?
tysonlowery

August 28, 2002 at 09:16PM View BBCode

That's a good idea. Let me tweak it up a bit and try again. Give me 20 minutes or so.
tysonlowery

August 28, 2002 at 09:26PM View BBCode

I just ran it, but I'm trying it again. I just found something that looks a bit funny in the code that might be causing the unpredictable behavior.
tysonlowery

August 28, 2002 at 09:42PM View BBCode

Okay, I ran the draft about 8 more times. I'm fairly happy with the way it turned out this time. Comments?

I'm not going to start the next season until we get the draft right, so don't do any trades with the draft picks because the draft might be rerun again.
dawgfan

August 28, 2002 at 10:00PM View BBCode

This one seems better - more fair distribution, more guys that hold some potential for help in coming seasons. I'd be fine keeping this one.
FiveToolPlayer

August 28, 2002 at 10:33PM View BBCode

Looks like a bunch of these guys could start today but I can live with it. Granted, none are stars but they all seem pretty decent.
DougPaz

August 28, 2002 at 11:31PM View BBCode

Looks alot better.;)
geoffrey13

better....but

August 28, 2002 at 11:51PM View BBCode

Still would like more coaching points!
andrew

August 29, 2002 at 12:53AM View BBCode

I argee with getting more coaching points. It would make the minors usefull. Right now I only try to keep a few young guys in the minors. The rest of the guys I want to develope have to be inserted into the lineup.
DougPaz

August 29, 2002 at 01:26AM View BBCode

I third that...more coaching points. Perhaps 30?!?:o

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