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tysonlowery
I only looked at away teams because the home team doesn't always bat in the 9th inning.
From the database, we had 30,065 occassions where a tired pitcher was pitching in the 9th inning. They gave up a total of 24,364 runs (earned and unearned). A tired pitcher is defined as someone who is tired in that game - not a pitcher that comes into the game with less than 5 bars.
We had 68,340 occassions where no tired pitchers appeared in the 9th inning. 36,255 runs were scored in that scenario.
Here are the stats for the rest of the innings. Using only the Away team and non-tired situations:
1st Inning
98,386 times a non tired pitcher pitched
57,719 runs allowed
ERA: 5.27
2nd Inning
98,289 times
43,208 runs allowed
ERA: 3.95
3rd Inning
98,010 times
47,354 runs allowed
ERA: 4.34
4th Inning
97,009 times
45,339 runs allowed
ERA: 4.20
5th Inning
94,799 times
43,320 runs allowed
ERA: 4.11
6th Inning
90,131 times
41,524 runs allowed
ERA: 4.14
7th Inning
76,132 times
34,798 runs allowed
ERA: 4.11
8th Inning
62,120 times
30,784 runs
ERA: 4.46
9th Inning
68,340 times
36,255 runs
ERA: 4.77
*********
Some notes on this. It looks like the data is pretty dependant on the chances the pitcher is going to bat in the inning. This might explain why the 3rd thru 7th innings are fairly close. And also why there is a jump in the 8th and 9th innings - pitchers don't get as many at bats because they are PH for. And you might see some favorable batter-for-batter PHs as well.
I wonder what NL ERAs look like by inning in real MLB?
I'd like to hear what others think. It seems to me that the late inning heroics/blowups seem to be caused by tired pitchers still in the game.
************
I'm going to post the stats for tired pitchers now too - in case people want to see that data. Note that this was taken about 20 minutes after the above data - hence the 9th inning numbers changed from the above text.
1st Inning
44 Times
54 Runs
11.04 ERA
2nd Inning
149 Times
188 Runs
11.35 ERA
3rd Inning
435 Times
624 Runs
12.91 ERA
4th Inning
1444 Times
1520 RUns
9.47 ERA
5th Inning
3662 Times
3747 Runs
9.20 ERA
6th Inning
8345 Times
7913 Runs
8.53 ERA
7th Inning
22359 Times
18119 Runs
7.29 ERA
8th Inning
36418 Times
28389 Runs
7.01 ERA
9th Inning
30140 Times
24416 Runs
7.29 ERA
[Edited on 4-5-2006 by tysonlowery]
Late Inning Data
April 05, 2006 at 09:42PM View BBCode
We have some data available now to show some scoring patterns in late innings.I only looked at away teams because the home team doesn't always bat in the 9th inning.
From the database, we had 30,065 occassions where a tired pitcher was pitching in the 9th inning. They gave up a total of 24,364 runs (earned and unearned). A tired pitcher is defined as someone who is tired in that game - not a pitcher that comes into the game with less than 5 bars.
We had 68,340 occassions where no tired pitchers appeared in the 9th inning. 36,255 runs were scored in that scenario.
Here are the stats for the rest of the innings. Using only the Away team and non-tired situations:
1st Inning
98,386 times a non tired pitcher pitched
57,719 runs allowed
ERA: 5.27
2nd Inning
98,289 times
43,208 runs allowed
ERA: 3.95
3rd Inning
98,010 times
47,354 runs allowed
ERA: 4.34
4th Inning
97,009 times
45,339 runs allowed
ERA: 4.20
5th Inning
94,799 times
43,320 runs allowed
ERA: 4.11
6th Inning
90,131 times
41,524 runs allowed
ERA: 4.14
7th Inning
76,132 times
34,798 runs allowed
ERA: 4.11
8th Inning
62,120 times
30,784 runs
ERA: 4.46
9th Inning
68,340 times
36,255 runs
ERA: 4.77
*********
Some notes on this. It looks like the data is pretty dependant on the chances the pitcher is going to bat in the inning. This might explain why the 3rd thru 7th innings are fairly close. And also why there is a jump in the 8th and 9th innings - pitchers don't get as many at bats because they are PH for. And you might see some favorable batter-for-batter PHs as well.
I wonder what NL ERAs look like by inning in real MLB?
I'd like to hear what others think. It seems to me that the late inning heroics/blowups seem to be caused by tired pitchers still in the game.
************
I'm going to post the stats for tired pitchers now too - in case people want to see that data. Note that this was taken about 20 minutes after the above data - hence the 9th inning numbers changed from the above text.
1st Inning
44 Times
54 Runs
11.04 ERA
2nd Inning
149 Times
188 Runs
11.35 ERA
3rd Inning
435 Times
624 Runs
12.91 ERA
4th Inning
1444 Times
1520 RUns
9.47 ERA
5th Inning
3662 Times
3747 Runs
9.20 ERA
6th Inning
8345 Times
7913 Runs
8.53 ERA
7th Inning
22359 Times
18119 Runs
7.29 ERA
8th Inning
36418 Times
28389 Runs
7.01 ERA
9th Inning
30140 Times
24416 Runs
7.29 ERA
[Edited on 4-5-2006 by tysonlowery]
CaseyStengel
I know that I often skip ahead to the 7th inning when viewing my teams as thats when all the action seems to take place.
April 05, 2006 at 09:50PM View BBCode
Another reason (possibly) for the jump in the 8th and 9th innings is that the RPs may not be as good as the pitchers they replaced.I know that I often skip ahead to the 7th inning when viewing my teams as thats when all the action seems to take place.
rnznsmn
It DOES still beg the question, though, of whether it is "manageable" under the SD system to actually field non-tired pitchers in the late innings with consistency. In other words, if the regular late-inning blowups really ARE due to tired pitchers, that still doesn't answer the question of whether excessive tired pitching in late innings is due to "mismanagement" or an underlying flaw in how the game is constructed that leads to this problem.
As a sidenote, does anyone have data to evaluate how these averages compare to real life MLB data, either on an inning-by-inning basis or overall SD "average" ERA to MLB "average" ERA across all leagues?
April 05, 2006 at 09:54PM View BBCode
The data for non-tired pitchers follows the exact pattern I would have expected, including peak ERA in the 1st inning, a drop in the 2nd inning, and a gradual increase in the 8th and 9th innings due to batter-for-batter and batter-for-pitcher pinch hitting.It DOES still beg the question, though, of whether it is "manageable" under the SD system to actually field non-tired pitchers in the late innings with consistency. In other words, if the regular late-inning blowups really ARE due to tired pitchers, that still doesn't answer the question of whether excessive tired pitching in late innings is due to "mismanagement" or an underlying flaw in how the game is constructed that leads to this problem.
As a sidenote, does anyone have data to evaluate how these averages compare to real life MLB data, either on an inning-by-inning basis or overall SD "average" ERA to MLB "average" ERA across all leagues?
rnznsmn
Actually, I would expect the opposite to be true on average. The best RP is typically the closer, who is often better than one or several of the starters, and always appears (if at all) in late innings. For teams that have "weaker" bullpens, the weak pitchers tend to be in the long/middle positions, and get gradually better as you move towards the closer.
So I would expect the RP pitcher effect to cause a modest decline in late innings (although apparently this is still offset by other effects).
April 05, 2006 at 09:56PM View BBCode
Originally posted by CaseyStengel
Another reason (possibly) for the jump in the 8th and 9th innings is that the RPs may not be as good as the pitchers they replaced.
Actually, I would expect the opposite to be true on average. The best RP is typically the closer, who is often better than one or several of the starters, and always appears (if at all) in late innings. For teams that have "weaker" bullpens, the weak pitchers tend to be in the long/middle positions, and get gradually better as you move towards the closer.
So I would expect the RP pitcher effect to cause a modest decline in late innings (although apparently this is still offset by other effects).
redcped
Does each "time" equal a full inning pitched by someone? Or is a "time" an occasion where any individual pitcher was tired in that inning?
The difference seems big to me, because the ERAs calculated are based on each time being equal to one full inning, whereas a reliever with 2 bars could come in, get no outs, give up a couple runs and be pulled, etc. and count as a "time" because he was a tired pitcher.
There could, theoretically, be way more "times" than innings. And the data might then be skewed.
April 05, 2006 at 09:59PM View BBCode
Curious about the math ...Does each "time" equal a full inning pitched by someone? Or is a "time" an occasion where any individual pitcher was tired in that inning?
The difference seems big to me, because the ERAs calculated are based on each time being equal to one full inning, whereas a reliever with 2 bars could come in, get no outs, give up a couple runs and be pulled, etc. and count as a "time" because he was a tired pitcher.
There could, theoretically, be way more "times" than innings. And the data might then be skewed.
tysonlowery
Tired pitcher is defined as someone who is "in-game" tired. Not someone who entered the game with less than 5 bars.
April 05, 2006 at 11:09PM View BBCode
Does each "time" equal a full inning pitched by someone? Or is a "time" an occasion where any individual pitcher was tired in that inning?Basically, I get a tally of how many runs were scored in each inning, and whether a tired pitcher appeared in that inning. So it represents innings.
Tired pitcher is defined as someone who is "in-game" tired. Not someone who entered the game with less than 5 bars.
redcped
April 05, 2006 at 11:19PM View BBCode
Sounds good to me. I'll leave it to the statisticians among us here to tell us what it all really means, though.
tysonlowery
If you have tired pitchers, your ERA ranges from 7.01 to 7.59.
If you don't have tired pitchers, the ERA ranges from 3.95 to 5.27.
Note that this isn't really ERA because it includes some unearned runs.
April 06, 2006 at 02:20PM View BBCode
Generically, if you throw out the small sample innings, its interesting what the ranges are.If you have tired pitchers, your ERA ranges from 7.01 to 7.59.
If you don't have tired pitchers, the ERA ranges from 3.95 to 5.27.
Note that this isn't really ERA because it includes some unearned runs.
Closer
And why would anyone expect a high ERA in the 1st inning? Just because the top of the lineup is up?
April 06, 2006 at 02:51PM View BBCode
I think rnznsmn hit on a real issue. Is it mismanagement or is it out of the manager's hands? What can be done besides setting a SP to come out "as soon as tired"? Must we set SP's to come out on very low run allowed settings?And why would anyone expect a high ERA in the 1st inning? Just because the top of the lineup is up?
Closer
Also seems like a big jump from non to tired. A whole run and a half not accounted for. Maybe batters should get a little tired in the late innings also when their bars are slipping.
April 06, 2006 at 02:55PM View BBCode
If you have tired pitchers, your ERA ranges from 7.01 to 7.59.
If you don't have tired pitchers, the ERA ranges from 3.95 to 5.27.
Note that this isn't really ERA because it includes some unearned runs.
Also seems like a big jump from non to tired. A whole run and a half not accounted for. Maybe batters should get a little tired in the late innings also when their bars are slipping.
rnznsmn
High ERA in the 1st inning because it's always the top of the lineup. I forget the exact disparity, but this has been shown to occur in real life MLB as well. Likewise, the 2nd inning ERA averages lower, because it's the MOST likely inning to NOT have the top of the lineup anywhere in reach. The 2nd inning most often bats something like 5-6-7 or 6-7-8 (assuming your top of the lineup got on base once on average) and is most consistently the weakest inning.
April 06, 2006 at 02:58PM View BBCode
Originally posted by Closer
And why would anyone expect a high ERA in the 1st inning? Just because the top of the lineup is up?
High ERA in the 1st inning because it's always the top of the lineup. I forget the exact disparity, but this has been shown to occur in real life MLB as well. Likewise, the 2nd inning ERA averages lower, because it's the MOST likely inning to NOT have the top of the lineup anywhere in reach. The 2nd inning most often bats something like 5-6-7 or 6-7-8 (assuming your top of the lineup got on base once on average) and is most consistently the weakest inning.
MBAdam
In my experiences, this is the oppisite of what I see in SimD, but exactly what I see in MLB. Many people set their preferences so that their best rp comes in first no matter what on the theory that it dosnt help to have the best in the bp waiting to come in if your gonna just blow it before he can get there. I use this method myself. You cant always go by what they are listed as (long or closer), but you have to look at who comes in first. I'm sure both ways are used a lot, and maybe I'm biased because I use the best first, but I do think based on watching the games play out that the better rp's come in first more often than they come in last.
Adam
April 12, 2006 at 04:33AM View BBCode
Originally posted by rnznsmn
Originally posted by CaseyStengel
Another reason (possibly) for the jump in the 8th and 9th innings is that the RPs may not be as good as the pitchers they replaced.
Actually, I would expect the opposite to be true on average. The best RP is typically the closer, who is often better than one or several of the starters, and always appears (if at all) in late innings. For teams that have "weaker" bullpens, the weak pitchers tend to be in the long/middle positions, and get gradually better as you move towards the closer.
So I would expect the RP pitcher effect to cause a modest decline in late innings (although apparently this is still offset by other effects).
In my experiences, this is the oppisite of what I see in SimD, but exactly what I see in MLB. Many people set their preferences so that their best rp comes in first no matter what on the theory that it dosnt help to have the best in the bp waiting to come in if your gonna just blow it before he can get there. I use this method myself. You cant always go by what they are listed as (long or closer), but you have to look at who comes in first. I'm sure both ways are used a lot, and maybe I'm biased because I use the best first, but I do think based on watching the games play out that the better rp's come in first more often than they come in last.
Adam
rkinslow19
I'm not sure I agree with this (the 1st inning statement, following MLB trends). Runs tend to be scored in the middle innings in real life because a batter is facing the starting pitcher for the third time, and is more familiar with his stuff.
[Edited on 4-12-2006 by rkinslow19]
April 12, 2006 at 06:29AM View BBCode
Originally posted by rnznsmn
Originally posted by Closer
And why would anyone expect a high ERA in the 1st inning? Just because the top of the lineup is up?
High ERA in the 1st inning because it's always the top of the lineup. I forget the exact disparity, but this has been shown to occur in real life MLB as well. Likewise, the 2nd inning ERA averages lower, because it's the MOST likely inning to NOT have the top of the lineup anywhere in reach. The 2nd inning most often bats something like 5-6-7 or 6-7-8 (assuming your top of the lineup got on base once on average) and is most consistently the weakest inning.
I'm not sure I agree with this (the 1st inning statement, following MLB trends). Runs tend to be scored in the middle innings in real life because a batter is facing the starting pitcher for the third time, and is more familiar with his stuff.
[Edited on 4-12-2006 by rkinslow19]
lvnwrth
In real life, the first inning is the highest scoring inning of the game. There are several possible reasons for that, including:
1. It is the only inning of the game where the offensive manager has complete control over who he sends to the plate, and it is generally assumed that a manager constructs his lineup optimally (not always true).
2. The pitcher is not fully loose yet.
3. The pitcher, catcher are still trying to figure out where the umpires strike zone is that night, and so the pitcher is apt to throw more "hittable" pitches in the first inning.
In any event, in SD the 1st inning being the highest scoring, for whatever reason does mirror real life.
April 12, 2006 at 01:31PM View BBCode
Originally posted by Closer
I think rnznsmn hit on a real issue. Is it mismanagement or is it out of the manager's hands? What can be done besides setting a SP to come out "as soon as tired"? Must we set SP's to come out on very low run allowed settings?
And why would anyone expect a high ERA in the 1st inning? Just because the top of the lineup is up?
In real life, the first inning is the highest scoring inning of the game. There are several possible reasons for that, including:
1. It is the only inning of the game where the offensive manager has complete control over who he sends to the plate, and it is generally assumed that a manager constructs his lineup optimally (not always true).
2. The pitcher is not fully loose yet.
3. The pitcher, catcher are still trying to figure out where the umpires strike zone is that night, and so the pitcher is apt to throw more "hittable" pitches in the first inning.
In any event, in SD the 1st inning being the highest scoring, for whatever reason does mirror real life.
lvnwrth
Statistically, mathematically, sabremetrically...whatever -ly you want to use...this is the best use of your bullpen. Numerous studies have showed that the present use of "defined role" bullpens (long man, middle man, setup man, closer) does nothing to improve the chances of a team winning a game, and in fact, may cost a team slightly, for exactly the reason you note here.
If you're protecting a one-run lead in the sixth inning, why would you bring in your long reliever, with an ERA of 5.00? Well, because it's the sixth inning and that calls for the long reliever. Bad reason. Or, as Bill James is quoted as saying, "Using your closer to protect a three-run lead is like a business sending their CEO to negotiate a fire insurance policy."
Go ahead. Use that long reliever to protect the one-run lead in the sixth. Then try to figure out exactly what good it does to bring in your best reliever (closer) when you're trailing by two in the eighth.
According to one study, there have been exactly two closers in the last ten years who actually improve their teams chances of winning by a significant margin (over historic norms) by being used in the traditional closer role. Care to guess who? It's really pretty obvious. Eric Gagne and Mariano Rivera. That's it. Two.
Approach I'm now taking with SD bullpen: Use your best relief pitcher first out of the pen, pitch him as long as you can, and worry about tomorrow tomorrow.
April 12, 2006 at 01:41PM View BBCode
Originally posted by MBAdam
Many people set their preferences so that their best rp comes in first no matter what on the theory that it dosnt help to have the best in the bp waiting to come in if your gonna just blow it before he can get there. I use this method myself. Adam
Statistically, mathematically, sabremetrically...whatever -ly you want to use...this is the best use of your bullpen. Numerous studies have showed that the present use of "defined role" bullpens (long man, middle man, setup man, closer) does nothing to improve the chances of a team winning a game, and in fact, may cost a team slightly, for exactly the reason you note here.
If you're protecting a one-run lead in the sixth inning, why would you bring in your long reliever, with an ERA of 5.00? Well, because it's the sixth inning and that calls for the long reliever. Bad reason. Or, as Bill James is quoted as saying, "Using your closer to protect a three-run lead is like a business sending their CEO to negotiate a fire insurance policy."
Go ahead. Use that long reliever to protect the one-run lead in the sixth. Then try to figure out exactly what good it does to bring in your best reliever (closer) when you're trailing by two in the eighth.
According to one study, there have been exactly two closers in the last ten years who actually improve their teams chances of winning by a significant margin (over historic norms) by being used in the traditional closer role. Care to guess who? It's really pretty obvious. Eric Gagne and Mariano Rivera. That's it. Two.
Approach I'm now taking with SD bullpen: Use your best relief pitcher first out of the pen, pitch him as long as you can, and worry about tomorrow tomorrow.
mikes14
April 12, 2006 at 02:17PM View BBCode
That is fine if you want to use that strategy, but for the owners that play SD to simulate real life baseball it poses a problem. I just can't let my self put my closer in the 6th or 7th inning. Call it a problem I have or whatever, but the bottom line is in my opinion there are far too many games where 40%-50% of the games total runs come in the 8th and 9th innings and I think most of it is due to manager preferences. I'm not sure anything can be done to solve this problem as it certainly has been disussed in length.
arturo
RSL, WDL, SCL, JML
April 12, 2006 at 02:38PM View BBCode
The "bring in your best early" strategy might work IF your best RP has got C- endurance, but my best are usually D or D- and can only pitch one inning. If he comes in in the sixth, what do I do for the rest of the game? I can't get a 120 IP/year out of a D- pitcher, even tho he's the best I've got. I've got to save him for the 8th and 9th, IMO, because as Mikes14 said, that's when all the runs are scored. ArturoRSL, WDL, SCL, JML
lvnwrth
Saves, ERA
36, 6.62
40, 6.89
34, 5.08
41, 5.26
42, 4.97
38, 5.72
29, 5.71
39, 4.78
38, 4.62
33, 5.15
43, 4.88
These seasons were all "all-star" seasons for the pitcher who posted them...based on number of saves. It sure can't be based on ERA.
If you have EXACTLY a one-run lead, it might matter who's pitching your ninth. With more than a one run lead, almost any pitcher is going to protect that lead almost every time. He may give up a run in the process, but he'll get the save. (But...that's talking real life.) In SD, I don't think it makes any difference who's out there late, because they're going to get drilled, regardless of their rating.
[Edited on 4-12-2006 by lvnwrth]
April 12, 2006 at 03:05PM View BBCode
Anecdotal evidence that it doesn' t matter who closes in SD:Saves, ERA
36, 6.62
40, 6.89
34, 5.08
41, 5.26
42, 4.97
38, 5.72
29, 5.71
39, 4.78
38, 4.62
33, 5.15
43, 4.88
These seasons were all "all-star" seasons for the pitcher who posted them...based on number of saves. It sure can't be based on ERA.
If you have EXACTLY a one-run lead, it might matter who's pitching your ninth. With more than a one run lead, almost any pitcher is going to protect that lead almost every time. He may give up a run in the process, but he'll get the save. (But...that's talking real life.) In SD, I don't think it makes any difference who's out there late, because they're going to get drilled, regardless of their rating.
[Edited on 4-12-2006 by lvnwrth]
tysonlowery
I'm confident that the data shows nothing fishy is going on in the late innings. No matter the inning, a tired pitcher is going to be less effective.
April 12, 2006 at 04:22PM View BBCode
This discussion seems to have gone to a new topic.I'm confident that the data shows nothing fishy is going on in the late innings. No matter the inning, a tired pitcher is going to be less effective.
mikes14
I agree with what you are saying, but in my opinion it should matter who closes a game. If it doesn't then why have a title or role for each relief pitcher? Just call them reliever #1, reliever #2, etc.
[Edited on 4-12-2006 by mikes14]
April 12, 2006 at 04:34PM View BBCode
lvnwrth,I agree with what you are saying, but in my opinion it should matter who closes a game. If it doesn't then why have a title or role for each relief pitcher? Just call them reliever #1, reliever #2, etc.
[Edited on 4-12-2006 by mikes14]
BleedRed
See above, please. The data was compiled and posted by Tyson to start this thread.
April 12, 2006 at 04:36PM View BBCode
Originally posted by mikes14
Tyson,
A while back (sorry, can't find the post) you said you were going to compile some data regarding this issue. I know there are more important things to be done, but just was curious if anything was found or if you just haven't had the time to do it.
See above, please. The data was compiled and posted by Tyson to start this thread.
lvnwrth
That's exactly what I'd do. The fact that modern managers have given titles and roles to different pitchers doesn't make it right...it just makes it common.
April 12, 2006 at 04:57PM View BBCode
"If it doesn't then why have a title or role for each relief pitcher? Just call them reliever #1, reliever #2, etc."That's exactly what I'd do. The fact that modern managers have given titles and roles to different pitchers doesn't make it right...it just makes it common.
lvnwrth
I think this may have asked the wrong question, then. In terms of figuring out how to manage our bullpens so that ABE doesn't beat the crap out of them in the late innings, we need to figure out what happens when that "A" closer comes in, but only has four bars.
I'm guessing that using these guys who are technically "not tired", but at less that peak effectiveness is a bigger factor in late inning beatings, than the guy who is simply tired for that game.
April 12, 2006 at 05:02PM View BBCode
From Tyson's explanation of the data parsed: "A tired pitcher is defined as someone who is tired in that game - not a pitcher that comes into the game with less than 5 bars."I think this may have asked the wrong question, then. In terms of figuring out how to manage our bullpens so that ABE doesn't beat the crap out of them in the late innings, we need to figure out what happens when that "A" closer comes in, but only has four bars.
I'm guessing that using these guys who are technically "not tired", but at less that peak effectiveness is a bigger factor in late inning beatings, than the guy who is simply tired for that game.
max_fischer
It was my understanding that a reliever with less than five bars only suffers a proportionate reduction in his endurance for that game, not for his effectiveness (vel/ctl).
April 12, 2006 at 05:54PM View BBCode
Originally posted by lvnwrth
From Tyson's explanation of the data parsed: "A tired pitcher is defined as someone who is tired in that game - not a pitcher that comes into the game with less than 5 bars."
I think this may have asked the wrong question, then. In terms of figuring out how to manage our bullpens so that ABE doesn't beat the crap out of them in the late innings, we need to figure out what happens when that "A" closer comes in, but only has four bars.
I'm guessing that using these guys who are technically "not tired", but at less that peak effectiveness is a bigger factor in late inning beatings, than the guy who is simply tired for that game.
It was my understanding that a reliever with less than five bars only suffers a proportionate reduction in his endurance for that game, not for his effectiveness (vel/ctl).
lvnwrth
April 12, 2006 at 05:58PM View BBCode
Maybe that's true. I really have no good handle on how ABE deals with the fatigue/effectiveness issue.