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tysonlowery
I'm curious to see what the effect of bad prefs really has. Does anyone want to help me set up a test for this? What I would do is run 2 seasons. In the first season, we'll set the manager prefs at the best possible settings for one team in the AL, and one in the NL. We'll then replay the same season with the worst possible settings on each of these teams. We can then compare the win totals and see what it produces.
If you're interested in helping out, let me know. I basically need some ideas from you on what are the best settings and what would be the absolute worst settings.
How much of an effect do bad manager prefs really have?
November 18, 2004 at 04:55PM View BBCode
hcboomer posted this in another thread:But I think what we also want to try to elminate -- or at least reduce -- is teams trying to lose through their managerial preferences, substitutions etc. You won't lose every game that way, of course, but let's say you've got a 60-65 win caliber team, and yet there's an actual advantage to winning 40 instead (because of the factors mentioned in other posts). Then you may try to get that team down to 40. So if we can prevent that, so much the better.
I'm curious to see what the effect of bad prefs really has. Does anyone want to help me set up a test for this? What I would do is run 2 seasons. In the first season, we'll set the manager prefs at the best possible settings for one team in the AL, and one in the NL. We'll then replay the same season with the worst possible settings on each of these teams. We can then compare the win totals and see what it produces.
If you're interested in helping out, let me know. I basically need some ideas from you on what are the best settings and what would be the absolute worst settings.
ME
For pinch hitting and such, you are taking your starters out of the lineup, reducing their PAs for improves and mentoring.
November 18, 2004 at 05:03PM View BBCode
As for stolen bases, the worst possible situation would be super agressive settings for all players, to max caught stealings. But this would also have the effect of causing extra outs without providing extra PAs (for improves), so the total number of improves goes down.For pinch hitting and such, you are taking your starters out of the lineup, reducing their PAs for improves and mentoring.
DeVeau31
Bottom line is it coems down to the players you have.
I am willing to help in a test if you'd like.
November 18, 2004 at 05:09PM View BBCode
If you're talking about tanking, sure, bad prefs could do that. But why? Like ME said, you're bringing down your IC's by doing this most of the time. As for pitchers, you could pitch the hell out of your SP's, but then your RP's suffer, and vice versa.Bottom line is it coems down to the players you have.
I am willing to help in a test if you'd like.
chekwsl
A couple of subtle things like that could cost a team several W's per season at the expense of very little in improvements. However, some of thos "little" things might move one up a notch or 2 in the draft.
November 18, 2004 at 05:49PM View BBCode
I'm ready if needed. I don't think bad prefs cost as much in improves as you might think. Giving away just one-half out per game on average will cost a team several losses over the course of a season. How about if you could arrange for your SP to face just 1 hitter every game after he's tired?A couple of subtle things like that could cost a team several W's per season at the expense of very little in improvements. However, some of thos "little" things might move one up a notch or 2 in the draft.
DeVeau31
November 18, 2004 at 05:54PM View BBCode
it could work either way. If you want to lose without it being noticed, just start your best guys and use your prefs to get them out. If your best guys are young guys, you are costing yourself IC's. Conversely, if your best guys are older guys, you would be gaining IC's. Like I said earlier, it all depends on your team.
youngallstar
November 18, 2004 at 05:58PM View BBCode
Tyson, ill help you out if need be. Just let me know how you want my prefs to be set.
tysonlowery
Good prefs:
Pitchers
Effectiveness:
Need help on this one - any thoughts?
Stamina:
Pull RP the instant they become tired. Always PH for tired pitchers. Pull a tired SP unless he has a shutout going.
PH for pitchers:
PH only if there is a RP available in the pen.
PH for RP in the 6th inning or later.
PH in the 8th inning or later if the winning or tying run is ondeck.
Bullpen
Rotation:
Skip starters in the rotation
Bullpen Use:
Bring in the closer except if its a no hitter ??? I'm not sold that this is the best strategy.
The rest of this is common sense and I would just put in something reasonable.
Substitutions
Bring in PH when the score is fairly close (within 3 runs) in the 7th inning or later
Don't PH for any stud batters (3-5 spots perhaps)
Only bring in a PH if he is Somewhat better than the guy on the bench.
Only bring in a PH if there is a guy on the bench that "Is Breathing"
PH talent: Speed 10, Power 52, Contact 38.
Don't PH if a player has 999 HR or 999 Hits
Defensive Replacements (not sold on this section either):
Use when winning by 2-4 runs
Use replacements that are moderately better
8th inning or later
Keep at least 3 players on the bench
Blow out PH:
Turn this off
Stealing
2nd with 0 outs: Moderate
2nd with 1 outs: Moderate
2nd with 2 outs: Ultra Agressive
Runner on third, stealing:
2nd with 0 outs: Moderate
2nd with 1 outs: Conservative
2nd with 2 outs: Ultra Conservative
Stealing 3rd with 0 outs: Conservative
Stealing 3rd with 1 outs: Moderate
Stealing 3rd with 2 outs: Conservative
Rated A: Ultra Agressive
Rated B: Aggressive
Rated C: Moderate
Rated D: Ultra Conservative
Rated F: Ultra Conservative
Innings: don't think this matters much
Score: if winning by a lot, conservative, if losing by 1 run, aggressive
Catcher Arm A: Conservative
Catcher Arm A: Moderate
C, D, F: Ultra Agressive
Decision Weight:
Speed - 35
Situation - 35
Inning - 0
Score - 5
Catcher Arm - 25
November 18, 2004 at 06:10PM View BBCode
Well let me start the discussion so you guys can help out. I'll post what I would view to be good prefs, and then what I would view to be bad prefs. I'll leave out anything that I think doesn't apply:Good prefs:
Pitchers
Effectiveness:
Need help on this one - any thoughts?
Stamina:
Pull RP the instant they become tired. Always PH for tired pitchers. Pull a tired SP unless he has a shutout going.
PH for pitchers:
PH only if there is a RP available in the pen.
PH for RP in the 6th inning or later.
PH in the 8th inning or later if the winning or tying run is ondeck.
Bullpen
Rotation:
Skip starters in the rotation
Bullpen Use:
Bring in the closer except if its a no hitter ??? I'm not sold that this is the best strategy.
The rest of this is common sense and I would just put in something reasonable.
Substitutions
Bring in PH when the score is fairly close (within 3 runs) in the 7th inning or later
Don't PH for any stud batters (3-5 spots perhaps)
Only bring in a PH if he is Somewhat better than the guy on the bench.
Only bring in a PH if there is a guy on the bench that "Is Breathing"
PH talent: Speed 10, Power 52, Contact 38.
Don't PH if a player has 999 HR or 999 Hits
Defensive Replacements (not sold on this section either):
Use when winning by 2-4 runs
Use replacements that are moderately better
8th inning or later
Keep at least 3 players on the bench
Blow out PH:
Turn this off
Stealing
2nd with 0 outs: Moderate
2nd with 1 outs: Moderate
2nd with 2 outs: Ultra Agressive
Runner on third, stealing:
2nd with 0 outs: Moderate
2nd with 1 outs: Conservative
2nd with 2 outs: Ultra Conservative
Stealing 3rd with 0 outs: Conservative
Stealing 3rd with 1 outs: Moderate
Stealing 3rd with 2 outs: Conservative
Rated A: Ultra Agressive
Rated B: Aggressive
Rated C: Moderate
Rated D: Ultra Conservative
Rated F: Ultra Conservative
Innings: don't think this matters much
Score: if winning by a lot, conservative, if losing by 1 run, aggressive
Catcher Arm A: Conservative
Catcher Arm A: Moderate
C, D, F: Ultra Agressive
Decision Weight:
Speed - 35
Situation - 35
Inning - 0
Score - 5
Catcher Arm - 25
tysonlowery
Pitchers
Effectiveness:
Need help on this one - any thoughts?
Stamina:
Never pull for stamina reasons
PH for pitchers:
PH and use a SP out of the pen if necessary
PH for RP in the 10th inning or later.
Don't use this rule
Bullpen
Rotation:
Put your rotation in order of worst to best. Then use the rotation strategy of Skip Starters.
Bullpen Use:
Always bring in the closer. Organize pen from worst to best.
Set it up so that when you are close to winning or keeping the lead, your worst RP come into the game.
Substitutions
Well for the worst strategy, I'm going to assume that you are simply trying to lose games and not trying to gain ICs. Just want to see how much difference it could really make:
So I would set it up so that PH are used liberally - but the settings for who is a good PH is backwards.
Don't PH for guys in the 4th through 3rd spots in the order (ph for everyone)
Only bring in a PH if he is at all better than the guy on the bench.
Only bring in a PH if there is a guy on the bench that "Is Breathing"
PH talent: Speed 70 Contact 30 Power 0
Don't PH if a player has 999 HR or 999 Hits
Defensive Replacements:
Could either turn this off, or try to waste players this way. Probably try to use it liberally.
Blow out PH:
Use it from the 1st inning onwards, for any score
Stealing
I would probably make each of these exactly opposite as the ones above with the same decision weights.
Decision Weight:
Speed - 35
Situation - 35
Inning - 0
Score - 5
Catcher Arm - 25
November 18, 2004 at 06:23PM View BBCode
Bad Prefs:Pitchers
Effectiveness:
Need help on this one - any thoughts?
Stamina:
Never pull for stamina reasons
PH for pitchers:
PH and use a SP out of the pen if necessary
PH for RP in the 10th inning or later.
Don't use this rule
Bullpen
Rotation:
Put your rotation in order of worst to best. Then use the rotation strategy of Skip Starters.
Bullpen Use:
Always bring in the closer. Organize pen from worst to best.
Set it up so that when you are close to winning or keeping the lead, your worst RP come into the game.
Substitutions
Well for the worst strategy, I'm going to assume that you are simply trying to lose games and not trying to gain ICs. Just want to see how much difference it could really make:
So I would set it up so that PH are used liberally - but the settings for who is a good PH is backwards.
Don't PH for guys in the 4th through 3rd spots in the order (ph for everyone)
Only bring in a PH if he is at all better than the guy on the bench.
Only bring in a PH if there is a guy on the bench that "Is Breathing"
PH talent: Speed 70 Contact 30 Power 0
Don't PH if a player has 999 HR or 999 Hits
Defensive Replacements:
Could either turn this off, or try to waste players this way. Probably try to use it liberally.
Blow out PH:
Use it from the 1st inning onwards, for any score
Stealing
I would probably make each of these exactly opposite as the ones above with the same decision weights.
Decision Weight:
Speed - 35
Situation - 35
Inning - 0
Score - 5
Catcher Arm - 25
tysonlowery
November 18, 2004 at 06:25PM View BBCode
Finally, after we run these two team settings, I'd probably like to run a 3rd season where the prefs are somewhat similar to the bad prefs - but assume you want to get your starting players as many appearances as possible.
youngallstar
November 18, 2004 at 06:26PM View BBCode
Im going to do the bad preferances. I also would like to get rid of all my vets to see the effect that has on things.
DeVeau31
Use Sp when necessary
SP - 6 - 16 - 4
SP - 7 - 16 - 6
SP - 5 - 16 - 8
SP - 4 - 16 - 9
RP - 3 - 8 - 2
RP - 2 - 5 - 1
Looking at those, they don't look right, however I have never had a complaint on what ABE was doing and I am almost always high up in team pitching, so I stay with it.
Bullpen:
Bring in closer unless SP has a shutout seems to work best for me.
Substitutions:
I think Moderately Better is better than somewhat better.
Defensive Substitutions:
Use when winning by 3-10 runs
Moderately Better
8th inning
1 guy on the bench
Stealing:
I won't give mine as I am usually not as aggressive as I plan to be and also not as successful. However, my decision weight has been good and it is:
Situation - 10
Speed - 50
Inning - 0
Score - 0
Catcher Arm - 40
November 18, 2004 at 06:30PM View BBCode
For pitcher effectiveness, I use:Use Sp when necessary
SP - 6 - 16 - 4
SP - 7 - 16 - 6
SP - 5 - 16 - 8
SP - 4 - 16 - 9
RP - 3 - 8 - 2
RP - 2 - 5 - 1
Looking at those, they don't look right, however I have never had a complaint on what ABE was doing and I am almost always high up in team pitching, so I stay with it.
Bullpen:
Bring in closer unless SP has a shutout seems to work best for me.
Substitutions:
I think Moderately Better is better than somewhat better.
Defensive Substitutions:
Use when winning by 3-10 runs
Moderately Better
8th inning
1 guy on the bench
Stealing:
I won't give mine as I am usually not as aggressive as I plan to be and also not as successful. However, my decision weight has been good and it is:
Situation - 10
Speed - 50
Inning - 0
Score - 0
Catcher Arm - 40
tysonlowery
I need help figuring out how to set the best and worst settings though.
November 18, 2004 at 06:35PM View BBCode
Im going to do the bad preferances. I also would like to get rid of all my vets to see the effect that has on things.I'll just run the results and let you guys now what happens. Please don't use these in the Beta league - I have a seperate league that I'll be running these in. Also, changing around the players used won't be done - I want to use the same players in both experiments to see what the effect of manager settings and only manager settings has on the performance of the team.
I need help figuring out how to set the best and worst settings though.
tysonlowery
November 18, 2004 at 06:40PM View BBCode
Also, I'll be running the same season twice (or three times) in my test league. So it will play the 1950 season over and over again. Otherwise, our control group wouldn't be consistant.
barterer2002
Personally I don't bring in a reliever when my pitcher is tired-not til there is a runner on second base. Not sure if that's a good setting or not but I wonder how many complete games a pitcher can throw without pitching a little bit when tired.
November 18, 2004 at 06:44PM View BBCode
When pinch hitting I never look at the speed of the hitter. I'm presuming that I just want a guy to get on base so I just look at how he hits and set speed to 0. I ususally split it 60/40 power/contact.Personally I don't bring in a reliever when my pitcher is tired-not til there is a runner on second base. Not sure if that's a good setting or not but I wonder how many complete games a pitcher can throw without pitching a little bit when tired.
hcboomer
For testing purposes, the interesting part is going be what Tyson mentioned with prefs similar to the "worst" prefs but when you're also trying to maximize appearances/improvements, because that's the kind of pref tweaking we'd actually be likely to see.
I don't think ANYONE is going to simply go for the worst imaginable prefs that maximize use of your worst players. Even the most aggressively tanking teams do it for a reason -- to get maximum use/iimprovements out of young players. It's not just having the worst record and the 1st pick.
Here's what I've done myself in the past:
1) Keep starting pitchers in as long as possible. Make them have to get hammered before they're yanked. That way you're getting the most innings out of them for improvements, and you're keeping lousy pitchers in longer.
2) Line up the bullpen prefs across the board to assure you're maxing out improvements for those you want to develop most. So, for instance, you have your middle reliever first in every scenario, setup man, setup/closer, whatever -- just plug the right guys into those spots. BUT, make sure your closer is awful and make sure he's getting in there in closing situations -- that way more games might be blown late.
3) Reverse your usual base-stealing tendencies to encourage slow runners to run against catchers with good arms etc. You can split the decision 50-50 between Arm and Speed, have your runners be ultra aggressive against A arms and work your way down -- ultra conservative against D and F arms. For speed, go ultra conservative with the A and B guys, and ultra aggressive with the D and F guys. This will all certainly wreak havoc on the base stealing percentage.
4) Never pinch hit, never bring in defensive replacements. Presumably you'll be wanting to maximize the use of your starters, so keep those bench showings to a minimum.
November 18, 2004 at 07:28PM View BBCode
Stating the obvious, I guess, the key is the bad prefs. There is a reasonable range of good prefs within which there probably isn't too much of an effect either way.For testing purposes, the interesting part is going be what Tyson mentioned with prefs similar to the "worst" prefs but when you're also trying to maximize appearances/improvements, because that's the kind of pref tweaking we'd actually be likely to see.
I don't think ANYONE is going to simply go for the worst imaginable prefs that maximize use of your worst players. Even the most aggressively tanking teams do it for a reason -- to get maximum use/iimprovements out of young players. It's not just having the worst record and the 1st pick.
Here's what I've done myself in the past:
1) Keep starting pitchers in as long as possible. Make them have to get hammered before they're yanked. That way you're getting the most innings out of them for improvements, and you're keeping lousy pitchers in longer.
2) Line up the bullpen prefs across the board to assure you're maxing out improvements for those you want to develop most. So, for instance, you have your middle reliever first in every scenario, setup man, setup/closer, whatever -- just plug the right guys into those spots. BUT, make sure your closer is awful and make sure he's getting in there in closing situations -- that way more games might be blown late.
3) Reverse your usual base-stealing tendencies to encourage slow runners to run against catchers with good arms etc. You can split the decision 50-50 between Arm and Speed, have your runners be ultra aggressive against A arms and work your way down -- ultra conservative against D and F arms. For speed, go ultra conservative with the A and B guys, and ultra aggressive with the D and F guys. This will all certainly wreak havoc on the base stealing percentage.
4) Never pinch hit, never bring in defensive replacements. Presumably you'll be wanting to maximize the use of your starters, so keep those bench showings to a minimum.
tysonlowery
Let me set up the two teams and the league and start setting prefs. I think I can sim the season in a few hours.
November 18, 2004 at 07:40PM View BBCode
Yeah, I agree that someone isn't going to try to lose without trying to gain improvements in the process. I wanted to look at the extremes first though without concern to improvements. If the difference is only 10 games or something, its probably not worth investigating further.Let me set up the two teams and the league and start setting prefs. I think I can sim the season in a few hours.
tysonlowery
November 18, 2004 at 07:48PM View BBCode
I guess what I'm trying to say is this. If a team with optimal prefs wins say 85 games, and the same team with the worst possible prefs wins 70 games , the team with the worst possible prefs that is also trying to max ICs will win somewhere between 70 and 85 games.
chekwsl
Stealing 3rd w/0 or w/2 out - ULTRA Conservative.
Newver steal when you're more than 1 run down. I make score the most important decision making criteria.
November 18, 2004 at 08:32PM View BBCode
On base stealing - The good prefs:Stealing 3rd w/0 or w/2 out - ULTRA Conservative.
Newver steal when you're more than 1 run down. I make score the most important decision making criteria.
hcboomer
One other thing, though -- the quality of the teams being tested with the preferences should be on the lousy side, because my guess would be that the differences will be magnified. If, for example, you've got a pretty deep staff, then all of the pref changes in the world aren't going to hurt THAT much. But if you've got some real stinkers in there, AND you fiddle with the prefs to make sure the worst guys pitch a lot -- and in key spots -- the effects are going to be exaggerated.
November 18, 2004 at 09:37PM View BBCode
Tyson's point is well taken. If, all other things being equal, the difference between the best possible prefs and worst possible prefs (the latter of which would pretty much never be used) is 15-20 games, then there's no problem. If it's a much larger gap, then maybe there's something to be addressed.One other thing, though -- the quality of the teams being tested with the preferences should be on the lousy side, because my guess would be that the differences will be magnified. If, for example, you've got a pretty deep staff, then all of the pref changes in the world aren't going to hurt THAT much. But if you've got some real stinkers in there, AND you fiddle with the prefs to make sure the worst guys pitch a lot -- and in key spots -- the effects are going to be exaggerated.
tysonlowery
Both teams finished 94-68.
I'm going to reset the league and the prefs to be horrible and see what happens.
November 18, 2004 at 11:14PM View BBCode
The teams that I used were above average. The fact that I set their lineups probably helped a bit. Each team had a mix of good and bad pitchers. Most of the other teams in the league didn't have their prefs set at all.Both teams finished 94-68.
I'm going to reset the league and the prefs to be horrible and see what happens.
tysonlowery
Two ways I see to combat this in my mind. The first way would be to make sure the mentor bonus for winning games doesn't favor the teams with the worst records.
The other way is to maybe increase the risk of injury when a team leaves a pitcher out to dry. I probably won't work on injury stuff yet, but that's something that should be added (he should have a career-altering injury).
November 19, 2004 at 12:35AM View BBCode
Wow, I'm glad I went through this exercise. The bad prefs has quite an effect on the teams. Through 72 games, one of the teams is 32-40 (works out to 72-90 over the season) and the other team is 34-38 (works out to 76-86). I'll run the rest of the season at some point and give you the full results.Two ways I see to combat this in my mind. The first way would be to make sure the mentor bonus for winning games doesn't favor the teams with the worst records.
The other way is to maybe increase the risk of injury when a team leaves a pitcher out to dry. I probably won't work on injury stuff yet, but that's something that should be added (he should have a career-altering injury).
hcboomer
Certainly the whole idea of more pitcher injuries would be great down the road, since that's certainly one of the more important things that's still "missing" from the game. But on this issue that's only one part of the problem anyway.
I'm not clear exactly how the wins bonuses work, but it seems like some sort of a cap or restrictions on how much in bonuses bottom dwellers can get would do the job in some fashion.
November 19, 2004 at 03:21AM View BBCode
And my guess is that if you did the same exercise with lousy teams -- which would typically be the types of teams that would be messing with bad prefs -- the effect would be even greater.Certainly the whole idea of more pitcher injuries would be great down the road, since that's certainly one of the more important things that's still "missing" from the game. But on this issue that's only one part of the problem anyway.
I'm not clear exactly how the wins bonuses work, but it seems like some sort of a cap or restrictions on how much in bonuses bottom dwellers can get would do the job in some fashion.
chekwsl
November 19, 2004 at 11:51AM View BBCode
Just have to be sure we don't take anything away from the bad teams trying to dig their way out. Just looking for ways to control the tankers.
gmclaws
November 20, 2004 at 08:49PM View BBCode
For base stealing I use 50 arm and 50 speed. But that depends on the type of team I have. When you have 7 position players in the starting lineup with A- or better speed it only makes sense to take advantage of it. With teams that doesn't have that kind of speed then I change the preferences. It just depends to me on the type of players that I have on my team. With a young pitching staff I tweak the settings to get them as many innings as possible. I've seen this in most of the leagues I'm in. In the HCL we had a owner with 150 complete games for a season. You can't tell me he wasn't overpitching his pitchers.Pages: 1 2