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tysonlowery
The way the system used to work, players would retire if they failed to meet a certain atbats / innnings innings pitched requirement for their age. They would also retire if they failed to hit a certain level of batting average or ERA for their age. The older the age, the higher the levels needed to stave off retirement.
I changed this so that its far less linear. Players will now have a chance of retiring each season (from 0 to 100%). The way I programmed it, if a player is younger than 30 I don't think he'll even have a chance above 0% to retire. But there may be an occassional young player who retires (we'll have to see how it plays out). So a player may have a 30% chance of retiring due to the factors in play.
Here's what will affect retirement:
Difference in plate appearances, or games + IP, for the current season verses recent career numbers.
Switching to a new team in the season will cause guys to retire more frequently.
Older players are more likely to retire than younger players (obviously this is still the most important factor).
World Series Stuff:
Having won the most recent WS will cause guys to retire more frequently. Having never won a WS will cause guys to retire less frequently. The more career WS a guy has won, the greater chance he has in retiring.
Career Milestones have NOT yet been added in. But I plan on doing this in the first couple seasons.
Here's what I would like to do. I wrote a little program to calculate the chances of retirements for any given player on the main site. Please provide me with some players to run and we can discuss the results. Post a link to the player card and the players name and I'll give some stats. Please also indicate whether the player has won a WS Ring in his career (if you can remember). Since we don't have a lot of stats yet for WS rings, the program is treating every player like they haven't won a WS before - so I'll adjust by hand for our discussion. I might tone down the effects of WS rings when we go live with this - at least for 8-10 months - to give leagues a chance to accumulate some statistics in this area.
One thing to keep in mind. If a player has a 30% chance of retiring in the given season, I consider that relatively high. If you think about it, lets say a guy's chances are as follows:
Age - chance of retiring
32 - 4%
33 - 13%
34 - 20%
35 - 28%
36 - 31%
A statistician would provide a more accurate number and description of this phenomena, but for simplicities sake add those numbers up and you'll see that it equals 96%. More likely than not, he'll retire by the time he reaches 36 years old.
New Retirement Logic
November 15, 2004 at 08:55PM View BBCode
I have a basic version of the new retirement logic ready to go. This should make the retirements a bit more random. I included most of what was in the other post for suggestions, but left out a few things to start.The way the system used to work, players would retire if they failed to meet a certain atbats / innnings innings pitched requirement for their age. They would also retire if they failed to hit a certain level of batting average or ERA for their age. The older the age, the higher the levels needed to stave off retirement.
I changed this so that its far less linear. Players will now have a chance of retiring each season (from 0 to 100%). The way I programmed it, if a player is younger than 30 I don't think he'll even have a chance above 0% to retire. But there may be an occassional young player who retires (we'll have to see how it plays out). So a player may have a 30% chance of retiring due to the factors in play.
Here's what will affect retirement:
Difference in plate appearances, or games + IP, for the current season verses recent career numbers.
Switching to a new team in the season will cause guys to retire more frequently.
Older players are more likely to retire than younger players (obviously this is still the most important factor).
World Series Stuff:
Having won the most recent WS will cause guys to retire more frequently. Having never won a WS will cause guys to retire less frequently. The more career WS a guy has won, the greater chance he has in retiring.
Career Milestones have NOT yet been added in. But I plan on doing this in the first couple seasons.
Here's what I would like to do. I wrote a little program to calculate the chances of retirements for any given player on the main site. Please provide me with some players to run and we can discuss the results. Post a link to the player card and the players name and I'll give some stats. Please also indicate whether the player has won a WS Ring in his career (if you can remember). Since we don't have a lot of stats yet for WS rings, the program is treating every player like they haven't won a WS before - so I'll adjust by hand for our discussion. I might tone down the effects of WS rings when we go live with this - at least for 8-10 months - to give leagues a chance to accumulate some statistics in this area.
One thing to keep in mind. If a player has a 30% chance of retiring in the given season, I consider that relatively high. If you think about it, lets say a guy's chances are as follows:
Age - chance of retiring
32 - 4%
33 - 13%
34 - 20%
35 - 28%
36 - 31%
A statistician would provide a more accurate number and description of this phenomena, but for simplicities sake add those numbers up and you'll see that it equals 96%. More likely than not, he'll retire by the time he reaches 36 years old.
ballplayer
Regards, Mike
November 15, 2004 at 09:55PM View BBCode
Tyson, you should have at least some chance of retiring for players of every age. Sometimes players get retired 6 feet under ground, and this is independant of age. If every player had a 0.1% chance of kicking the bucket each year, we would have a funeral for a Major League player every 2.5 years.Regards, Mike
CaseyStengel
I looked up every player on the 1972 New York Yankee team to determine the age real players started in the majors and the age they retired. Interestingly there were 12 player that retired UNDER the age of 30 and 6 players who retired OVER the age of 34. The average age a player retired was 32.
The youngest was 24 when he retired and the oldest was 39.
The point is that many players do not make it into their 30s before throwing in the towel and the average age for retirement is early 30s. this was true for one team. If this is accurate for the entire league, SD players retire much later than in "real life."
November 15, 2004 at 11:07PM View BBCode
In sim dynasty I generally do not think a player will retire until after the age of 34 and typically after age 36 if they are active. Just look at [url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=426627]Buddy Lively[/url] (3 World Series Rings). He is still playing at age 38. The oldest player in I experienced in SD was 42 when he finely retired.I looked up every player on the 1972 New York Yankee team to determine the age real players started in the majors and the age they retired. Interestingly there were 12 player that retired UNDER the age of 30 and 6 players who retired OVER the age of 34. The average age a player retired was 32.
The youngest was 24 when he retired and the oldest was 39.
The point is that many players do not make it into their 30s before throwing in the towel and the average age for retirement is early 30s. this was true for one team. If this is accurate for the entire league, SD players retire much later than in "real life."
Age Age
Batters Started Retired
Thurman Munson 22 32
Felipe Alou 23 39
Horace Clarke 25 34
Celerino Sanchez 28 29
Gene Michael 28 37
Roy White 21 35
Bobby Murcer 19 37
Johnny Callison 19 34
Ron Blomberg 20 29
Bernie Allen 23 34
Rusty Torres 22 31
John Ellis 20 32
Rich McKinney 23 30
Jerry Kenney 22 28
Ron Swoboda 21 29
Hal Lanier 21 30
Charlie Spikes 21 29
Frank Tepedino 19 27
Average Age 22 32
Pitchers
Mel Stollemeyer 22 32
Fritz Peterson 24 34
Steve Kline 22 29
Mike Kekich 20 32
Rob Gardner 20 28
Sparky Lyle 22 37
Lindy McDaniel 19 39
Fred Beene 25 32
Jim Roland 19 29
Ron Klimkowski 25 28
Rich Hinton 24 32
Casey Cox 24 31
Larry Gowell 24 24
Jack Aker 23 33
Steve Blateric 27 31
Al Closer 23 30
Doc Medich 23 33
Average Age 23 31
chekwsl
November 15, 2004 at 11:36PM View BBCode
On average, you're probably right. What we don't get is the early retiree and rarely get the very late retiree.
barterer2002
November 16, 2004 at 12:31AM View BBCode
On the other hand, SD has a number of players who aren't retired but rather relaguated to minor league play. I guess part of the question I have for the 1972 Yankees is how many of those younger retirees didn't actually retire, just couldn't find a major league job for themselves. That happens to players all the time-especially those under 30. Many players under 30 come up to the majors play some then are sent back to the minors where they play for many more seasons without ever returning to "the show". I'm not saying that players shouldn't retire younger than they do in SD-because I think that the possibility of a 27 year old retiring is real-especially if he's being sent back to the minors. The question is, what is the difference between a player who "retires" and one who just doesn't get any major league playing time. Semantics- yes and no. In practice there is no difference in the two groups of people but in our minds there is a great difference-especially in SD as the latter group can linger on the free agent pool for many seasons without getting a job.
celamantia
Although I think that these adjustments are good, age shift will help create that occasional player that burns out at 27 or pitches until he's 49.
November 16, 2004 at 12:38AM View BBCode
Will someone hurt me if I say "age shift" at this point?Although I think that these adjustments are good, age shift will help create that occasional player that burns out at 27 or pitches until he's 49.
tysonlowery
I'm not ready to work on changes that don't have a direct impact on tanking or competitive balance. Age shift may be realistic, as are a lot of suggestions, but I'm not ready to work on things that are realistic but don't solve problems.
Surprised nobody had any players for me to give stats on?
November 16, 2004 at 06:18AM View BBCode
Yes, I'll hurt you :)I'm not ready to work on changes that don't have a direct impact on tanking or competitive balance. Age shift may be realistic, as are a lot of suggestions, but I'm not ready to work on things that are realistic but don't solve problems.
Surprised nobody had any players for me to give stats on?
tysonlowery
I'll start with Buddy Lively - which league is this Casey?
Here are his chances of retiring in a few select seasons. This assumes he had at least his 1st WS ring before the 67 season, I'm going to assume he won 2 of his 3 rings before the 67 season.:
OffSeason after this season - chance %
1967 - 2%
1968 - 11%
1969 - 26%
1970 - 36%
1971 - 38%
1972 - 53%
Any thoughts? 1972 is incomplete, but that number won't move much more than 5-10% down unless he significantly lowers his WHIP.
November 16, 2004 at 04:55PM View BBCode
I guess the general point is that the entire retirement system is being re-written and it should be easier to create more randomness. You are right - players tend to retire at very specific ages - we now have the means to adjust that. But we'll need to get a dialogue going on players so I can get an idea of what people think.I'll start with Buddy Lively - which league is this Casey?
Here are his chances of retiring in a few select seasons. This assumes he had at least his 1st WS ring before the 67 season, I'm going to assume he won 2 of his 3 rings before the 67 season.:
OffSeason after this season - chance %
1967 - 2%
1968 - 11%
1969 - 26%
1970 - 36%
1971 - 38%
1972 - 53%
Any thoughts? 1972 is incomplete, but that number won't move much more than 5-10% down unless he significantly lowers his WHIP.
CaseyStengel
Two WS Rings
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=1090889]Elston Howard[/url]
One WS Ring
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=906620]Tom Schlei[/url]
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=796016]Ken Boyer[/url]
No WS Rings
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=1468409]Ed Figueroa[/url]
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=1170579]Al McBean[/url]
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=1052842]Manny Mota[/url]
November 16, 2004 at 07:32PM View BBCode
Here are links to some random cards from the New York Yankees, Yogi Berra League. The Yankees are currently in 6th place (rebuilding) after 7 seasons of being in the top 3 spots.Two WS Rings
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=1090889]Elston Howard[/url]
One WS Ring
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=906620]Tom Schlei[/url]
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=796016]Ken Boyer[/url]
No WS Rings
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=1468409]Ed Figueroa[/url]
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=1170579]Al McBean[/url]
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=1052842]Manny Mota[/url]
tysonlowery
pre 1970 - 0% chance of retiring
1970 - 7%
1971 - 0%
1972 - 7%
Schlei:
1966 - 44%
1967 - 7%
1968 - 9%
1969 - 15%
1970 - 33%
1971 - 10%
1972 - 31%
That's a pretty interesting one. His numbers are more sporatic than most. He saw a lot of action in 1971 with pretty good results, so his chance went down. But this year he stunk up the place so he went back up. And 1966 looked like the end of the ropes for him - he might have snuck through though. He was traded that season, and had horrible numbers. The 1967 and 1968 numbers may need some tweaking - he didn't have any stats for those years, there may be a bug in my equations.
Boyer:
1967 - 16%
1968 - 0%
1969 - 0%
1970 - 0%
1971 - 0%
1972 - 0%
Another interesting one. This player seems to appreciate that he's getting more playing time than he got early in his career so he's going to stick around.
Figuero is going to be a 0%.
McBean:
1967 - 2%
All other years - 0%
He's having better success than he did earlier in his career - and he's never won a WS ring.
Mota:
1970 - 13%
All other years - 0%
He was coming off a trade in 1970 and had a slight drop in playing time. Plus the worst OPS of his career was that season. Otherwise, he wants to stick around.
What do you guys think of these numbers?
November 16, 2004 at 08:19PM View BBCode
For Howard:pre 1970 - 0% chance of retiring
1970 - 7%
1971 - 0%
1972 - 7%
Schlei:
1966 - 44%
1967 - 7%
1968 - 9%
1969 - 15%
1970 - 33%
1971 - 10%
1972 - 31%
That's a pretty interesting one. His numbers are more sporatic than most. He saw a lot of action in 1971 with pretty good results, so his chance went down. But this year he stunk up the place so he went back up. And 1966 looked like the end of the ropes for him - he might have snuck through though. He was traded that season, and had horrible numbers. The 1967 and 1968 numbers may need some tweaking - he didn't have any stats for those years, there may be a bug in my equations.
Boyer:
1967 - 16%
1968 - 0%
1969 - 0%
1970 - 0%
1971 - 0%
1972 - 0%
Another interesting one. This player seems to appreciate that he's getting more playing time than he got early in his career so he's going to stick around.
Figuero is going to be a 0%.
McBean:
1967 - 2%
All other years - 0%
He's having better success than he did earlier in his career - and he's never won a WS ring.
Mota:
1970 - 13%
All other years - 0%
He was coming off a trade in 1970 and had a slight drop in playing time. Plus the worst OPS of his career was that season. Otherwise, he wants to stick around.
What do you guys think of these numbers?
ME
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?mode=player&playername=nobody&id=1207312]Ken Blyzka[/url]
He has won 3 World Series (1951, 1953, 1958)
November 16, 2004 at 08:28PM View BBCode
What about this guy?[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?mode=player&playername=nobody&id=1207312]Ken Blyzka[/url]
He has won 3 World Series (1951, 1953, 1958)
chekwsl
November 16, 2004 at 08:36PM View BBCode
I like the "I seriously thought about going to work in the family business, but my wife convinced me to give it one more try" kind of career. This will create the occasional guy with the "good card" who has a bad season at 28 and quits and opens a bicycle shop.
DeVeau31
November 16, 2004 at 08:36PM View BBCode
I like the numbers, but what I don't like is you kinda get penalized for winning a lot. If I have a great team and have won 3 WS rings and have a bunch of 35 year olds, I'll lose a lot more of them than if I had not won a WS. I guess it's good and bad.
tysonlowery
1950: 0%
1951: 38%
1952: 12%
1953: 37%
1954: 37%
1955: 44%
1956: 54%
1957: 53%
1958: 73%
Blyzda has high risk in 1951 because his numbers were down somewhat, and he had just won the WS (going on on top effect).
This guy would have retired by now under the new system I would say. Probably by 1955 or 1956. Where should he have retired? I'm not sure, but I would say 1958 at a minmum.
November 16, 2004 at 09:00PM View BBCode
Blyzda:1950: 0%
1951: 38%
1952: 12%
1953: 37%
1954: 37%
1955: 44%
1956: 54%
1957: 53%
1958: 73%
Blyzda has high risk in 1951 because his numbers were down somewhat, and he had just won the WS (going on on top effect).
This guy would have retired by now under the new system I would say. Probably by 1955 or 1956. Where should he have retired? I'm not sure, but I would say 1958 at a minmum.
chekwsl
November 16, 2004 at 09:18PM View BBCode
The good side of the team with a dynasty is that it is likely to break up a little sooner. More owners get a chance to win, more enthusiasm for SD.
CaseyStengel
Schlei - sat in the minors in 67 and 68 as I had an awesome pitching staff.
November 16, 2004 at 09:45PM View BBCode
That's a pretty interesting one. His numbers are more sporatic than most. He saw a lot of action in 1971 with pretty good results, so his chance went down. But this year he stunk up the place so he went back up. And 1966 looked like the end of the ropes for him - he might have snuck through though. He was traded that season, and had horrible numbers. The 1967 and 1968 numbers may need some tweaking - he didn't have any stats for those years, there may be a bug in my equations.
Schlei - sat in the minors in 67 and 68 as I had an awesome pitching staff.
tysonlowery
Please keep a close eye on this for Monday's offseason (I think it will run on Monday). If my changes for this are way off, I might un-retire some players and tweak things for next time around.
November 28, 2004 at 04:56PM View BBCode
*bump*Please keep a close eye on this for Monday's offseason (I think it will run on Monday). If my changes for this are way off, I might un-retire some players and tweak things for next time around.
gmclaws
http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=1016116
November 28, 2004 at 07:43PM View BBCode
How about Jake Jacobs of the YBL. Seems to of been living on borrowed time.http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=1016116
jrspc4
When will you run the off-season for LT Beta?
When will the 1951 season start?
[Edited on 11-29-2004 by jrspc4]
November 28, 2004 at 11:00PM View BBCode
TysonWhen will you run the off-season for LT Beta?
When will the 1951 season start?
[Edited on 11-29-2004 by jrspc4]
tysonlowery
Something to keep in mind with retirements - a lot of the logic doesn't apply for the first season because there are no historical stats to go off of. I might need to make some changes to how things work in 1950. If you see some players that retired or didn't retire and are curious about the new system, let me know and I will provide you with the chances they had of retiring this season.
November 29, 2004 at 04:17PM View BBCode
jeff - the offseason just ran. draft will be around 6PM tonight and the season should start up again tomorrow.Something to keep in mind with retirements - a lot of the logic doesn't apply for the first season because there are no historical stats to go off of. I might need to make some changes to how things work in 1950. If you see some players that retired or didn't retire and are curious about the new system, let me know and I will provide you with the chances they had of retiring this season.
tysonlowery
November 29, 2004 at 05:53PM View BBCode
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