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Frunobulax
it's time for the very first issue of the CDL power rankings.
I've got a request to continue my power rankings for the new league. OK, here we go :)
For those of you not from the BLL, I do these power rankings once a season (if I get around to doing them, I'm afraid). To create them I use a program that I have developed over the years that rates players and predicts their development. (Yes, I have a very sabermetric approach to this game.) It's pretty much automated so all values I post are what they are, an approximation of the team value that has served me well over the years, but certainly not 100% accurate. I always add the disclaimer that I might rank my team as too strong, because I try to optimize team value according to these ratings.
Full explaination of the algorithm is at the bottom of the text. You should know that I place a lot of value on the top 3 starting pitchers, as they will start 6 of 7 playoff games, and I value contact batting and speed more than other managers, which has served me well in the past. The values are not drawn out of a hat, but a result of a sabermetric analysis from a large nummber of league statistics. Another thing is that the rankings assume that any team plays the best players, which disregards the fact that many rebuilding teams will use younger, weaker players. So if I have say Cleveland at #2 in the AL West, they might in fact finish much lower if they start their youngsters.
I should also note that I do track player development to get a more accurate estimate on player strength. As I have not monitored the JBL in the past, I can only go from the grades. Data should become more accurate after a few years, if I continue to do these previews.
Playoff predictions:
1970: NYA over TOR, NYN over STL. WS: NYA over NYN
1971: NYA over TOR, STL over NYN. WS: NYA over STL
1972: NYA over TOR, STL over ARI. WS: NYA over STL
1973: NYA over BOS, STL over MIA. WS: NYA over STL
Analysis
========
I've predicted a subway series in the BBL and was wrong. I will predict another subway series, but might be wrong as well :)
=============================================================================================================================================
American league:
=============================================================================================================================================
My rankings have 3 of the old BBL occupying in the playoff slots. New York has finished its rebuild and most of their players are entering their prime, so NY is a good bet to win a ring for many years to come. My Yellowjackets are still occupying #2, having declined a bit from previous glory and will soon fade a bit further, but they still have a few good players in their prime. The Boston Bums are sitting at #3. with a rock solid team that will keep them in contention for a number of years, and the Seattle Martians have the #4 spot, another team that will contendig for a while, but looks to get a bit weaker with time. And there is quite a gap to the rest of the team, with Chicago, Cleveland and Oakland already pretty far away and ABE would really have to help them to make the playoffs.
The Minnesota Mavericks and the Baltimore Skipjacks are rebuilding, with Minnesota lookin like the team of the future right now.
=======
AL East
=======
1. New York Navigators
======================
The Navigators were the strongest team in the BBL, and are now the strongest team in the JBL, period. I have no idea why they missed the playoffs in the last 2 seasons - ABE was not smiling on them, that's for sure. They have 4 great starters that could be #1 for almost any other team (Quintana, Lanning, Radonovich, Martin) with plenty of depth behind them (Hanzo, Tweksbury and Schwall). The oldest player in this group is just OS31. On the batting side, 7 players rank as great or above average, with no glaring weakness in the lineup. 2 players are OS33, the rest is younger. This team is my #1 pick to win a ring for the next 3-4 seasons.
The minors look a bit depleted, but still contain a few nice prospects. The Navigators do not look like a team that will flame out quickly.
2. Toronto Yellowjackets
========================
My team has been to 5 straight world series in the BBL, even though we managed to win only one ring. Age is beginning to show a bit, and there are a few holes in the roster.
The rotation still features very strong 1-2-3 slots (and will continue to do so, as the oldest in the group is OS32), which will give my team a decent chance to win in the playoffs, if I make it this far. Only one more pitcher is above average though, we have no closer to speak of and the bullpen in general will be weak.
The batting lineup looks better, with 8 above-average players they appear to be the strongest group in the league. 3 players are OS33, the rest is younger. We'll have a good window of opportunity for 3 more years, maybe 4, before a rebuild is looming.
The minors are looking a bit thin. LaRoss and Mejias will become good pitchers, but that's pretty much it.
3. Seattle Martians
====================
The Martians managed to win the BBL last season, which came as a minor surprise to me. That makes 2 years in a row where they surprised me, my power rankings and (maybe most important) the Navigators, the team that I would have expected to win it all. Will they do it for a third time? My predictions have them as the 3rd strongest team in the old BBL, and not far behind New York and Boston.
The Martians have a very good and deep pitching staff. Even though they're missing an ace, I count no less than 8 good to above average pitchers, and only 2 are OS33 or older. The pitching should be excellent and able to compensate for a few injuries.
The batting group is somewhat weaker. I really like Elmore, Shore and Velazquez, but there is not much depth behind them. Four of their 8 starters are OS33 or older, so this group won't become stronger with time. However, if they shore their batter group up they would be right in the thick of things. Maybe now is the time to sacrifice a bit of youth, or to trade a veteran pitcher for 1-2 veteran batters?
The minors contain 2 players that will help the team soon (Hermanson and Papi) and some depth.
4. Chicago Pale Hose
====================
Chicago has a very respectable rotation, with Schrecongost, McConnell and Wolfgang, plus Armbruster as closer. The batting lineup however can't keep up with the pitching, and will be the reason why Chicago looks at the playoffs from the outside in. I like Schalk and Gandil, Blackburne is OK, but the rest is below average.
The minors contain a few nice pieces but are not exactly loaded. Chicago might be a candidate that trades some veterans for quality prospects, because with system 5 there is certainly room there.
5. Baltimore Skipjacks
======================
The Skipjacks have recently entered a rebuilding phase and are far away from contention. They have a very solid group of pitching prospects, and a handful of batters, but will need to assemble a lot more batters to complete the rebuild. I can see them returning to the spotlight in maybe 5 seasons.
6. Minnesota Mavericks
======================
The Mavericks are another rebuilding team, and I really like the quality of their youngsters. They have a large number of excellent prospects between OS19 and OS24. These players will need a few years to mature, but if I'd have to pick a 1976 champion it would be the Mavericks.
=======
AL West
=======
1. Boston Bums
==============
Boston is yet another team with a strong pitching staff. And the best thing about them is, most of them are just entering their prime. Their best 3 starters (Taylor, Richardson and Davis/Jones) are a tad below the starters in New York and Toronto though, so the advantage goes to NY and TOR in the playoffs.
The batting group is built around 4 strong players with Salmon, Frink, Sanders and Block. Some decent players round out the group, but there is one weakness at catcher that should be addressed if they really want a ring.
The minors contain only one player I really like (Manning), but that's OK as none of their starters is old.
2. Cleveland Lumberjacks
========================
The Lumberjacks might occupy #2, but they're a rebuilding team. Their remaining strength comes from a group of OS34 and older pitchers, and I really see 2 good veterans on the roster in Mattick and Lamb, who should be sold to contending teams. Guerrero also has some trade value at catcher, even though he's only average.
The minors don't look too strong, which would indicate that the rebuild has just started. Another argument to ship the remaining good players.
3. Oakland Panthers
===================
Oakland is another team sitting on the median of my power rankings. They have kind of a generatin problem: They have 4 good, young pitchers who are OS23 to OS29, while their batting lineup is predominantly in the OS31-OOS33 group, with not a lot of talent coming up there. So Oakland will need to do something to avoid mediocrity for the next few years.
4. Washington Generals
======================
Washington has several pitchers in the OS24-OS28 age range that need a bit time to mature. The batting lineup has a few solid pieces, but also some below average players. The problem is that I don't see even close to 8 good batters that will be there once those young pitchers are ready, so Washington is another team that should think about either moving a few players.
5. Anaheim Twins
================
Anaheim is a rebuilding team. I see some good young players already, but they will have to rebuild for some more years before that roster is complete.
6. Texas Tornado
================
Texas is another rebuilding team, in a very similar situation as Anaheim. Some young players are there, some are missing, the future will show where the road leads.
=============================================================================================================================================
National league:
=============================================================================================================================================
The national league appears to be more open to the american league. The Giants and Fury look set up to win their division, and behind them are Arizona, San Diego, Chicago and Brooklyn, with Colorado, Miami and Pittsburgh having a shot too. This may be the last shot the Giants have though with their aging team. I must admit I like the talent level in the AL better, while the AL has some very good teams and some teams that look as if they may become very good, the NL has a lot of teams that appear to hover around .500 for the next few years.
=======
NL east
=======
1. New York Giants
==================
The Giants dominated the BBL for the last few years, but they're getting old. The top pitchers are 4 players at age OS36, OS36, OS37 and OS33. In the batting group, only 4 players are good, and they're an old group too. New York will compete for one more year, maybe 2 if they're very lucky with retirement and aging, and then head for a lengthy rebuild.
2. Arizona Desert Dogs
======================
The Desert Dogs look to have a good shot at the playoffs. They have a clear ace in Gowdy,a solid #2 and #3 and a decent closer, plus some batters that I like, and most of them have a few more good years ahead of them. That's the good news. The bad news is that there are some holes on the roster too, as they could use at least another good starter and 1-2 more good batters, and I don't see those players in the minors. Those holes will be tough to overcome in the playoffs, as there are a few teams around that don't have similar holes.
3. Colorado Corruption
======================
Colorado is a young team, and I see a lot of potential in their minors. The pitching staff is already quite good with Moraetes, Lopez and Douglas, but the batting lineup is a ragtag group of veterans that just warm the bench for the youngsters that need a few more years in the minors. We'll see where that leaves the team. But I should also point out that Colorado might consider trading Moraetes and Lopez, as they will be near retirement once the young batters are ready.
4. Pittsburgh Crew Dogs
=======================
The Crew Dogs have a few decent players near the end of their career. Many of their batters look like they'll need dentures soon. That translates into a looming full rebuild. The Crew Dogs are still good enough to have a shot at the playoffs, but maybe the better strategy would be to sell whatever they can sell, and go for the rebuild.
5. Montreal Royals
==================
Things are easier for Montreal. They are rebuilding, and will be fore some more years. I like the young pitching group, and they've also acquired a few good batters, if they continue this path they'll be back in contention soon.
6. Cincinnati Red Dogs
======================
The Red Dogs are rebuilding, too. Looks like they've got most of their pieces together already, and are just waiting for the young guys to mature. They should be in the playoff hunt in just a few seasons.
=======
NL west
=======
1. St. Louis Fury
=================
If you look at the pitching staff, STL looks like a championship team, and all those guys are entering their prime. The batting lineup shows a few holes though, and some of their best players will decline soon. The Fury looks to be strong enough for a shot at the championship, this year and a number of years to come, but their odds were a lot better if they could add a batter or two.
2. San Diego Surfers
====================
San Diego is a solid team, with two excellent pitchers that will both decline next year. However, that may be exactly their problem: The pitching staff is solid, the batters are solid, but they lack the stars and the pitching ace to get them to the world series. My predictions have them in the middle of the pack for the next few years (and a bit better this year due to the two old pitchers), so to break mediocrity they'll have to make some moves.
3. Chicago Skyscrapers
======================
Chicago looks a bit like a scrapbook - Irvine and Schatzeder are good pitchers, but the rest of the pitchers are pedestrian. They also have 5 pretty good batters, but that's not enough to field a team. As a consequence, I see them around .500 this season, and probably a rebuild coming up.
4. Brooklyn Trolley Dodgers
===========================
The Trolley Dodgers are another team that centers around .500 for the next few seasons. They have some good young pitchers, a group that I'd gladly build a team around, but the current pitching staff is weak. Conversely, they have a few good batters, but also some holes and not a lot of young guys h. Something needs to be done about that I'm afraid, unless .500 is good enough.
5. Miami Terra Sol
==================
Yet another team that looks like it's gonna end up around .500. Teach is the lone wolf in a pitching staff that has some young guys that might become good given time. The batting lineup lacks a star, and has just 3 players that I would consider average. My predicions see the team improving a bit over the next few years, but not enough to be contending.
San Francisco Chicken Rats
==========================
San Fran is obviously rebuilding. There are some good young players in the team already, some more will have to be drafted before the team returns to the playoffs.
=============================================================================================================================
The numbers are calculated fully automated by a little program I use, the analysis is done by hand obviously.A player has a numerical value for the current skills and the
potential value (just like win shares, runs created/saved and so on) so that I can order them from best to worst. The ability to compare teams is a byproduct of this, but
not really a focus. The input is the csv document that you can download at the team stats pages (that do contain the ratings), or the downloadable draft spreadsheet.
The ranking algorithm is rather easy: I rank the current value of a player using linear weights - for pitchers its basically C1*CON + C2*VEL + C3*END, with some constants
C1, C2, C3, for batters I calculate batting power C1*CON + C2*PWR + C3*SPD, take 75% vsR and 25% vsL to get an overall batting power, and assign a bonus/penalty for defense.
For the pitchers, the 5 starters are now weighted 120% for the best 3, 90% for the 4th and 50% for the 5th starter. This is due to the fact that the top 3 will start 2 games
in playoffs, and pitch a few more games in the regular season (a #5 starter usually gets about 22-24 games, while a #1 guy will get about 36). In the bullpen, I value the 4
best pitchers, with the best reliever (closer) getting 140%, the 2nd reliever 120%, and the other 2 guys 70%. (Personally, that's how I use my pitchers - 1-2 guys to handle
all the close games, and the remaining pitchers usually don't pitch a whole lot, and only when the games are not close.
For the batting value I choose the 8 best batters. I do not consider health (in the playoffs no players have to rest, and for the regular season I just ignore it so far), or
that a manager may sit players to develop younger ones or chooses players with good mentoring value over better players that are no good mentors. The system works as this: I
calculate a batting rating for a player that is independent of his position. Then I calculate a defensive ability for each position - a catcher or an outfielder needs a good
arm, an infielder good range. For example, at 1B I rank the defense at 95% range, 5% arm, while a SS has 80% range, 20% arm. (This follows some discussion in the forum a few
months ago, where it turned out that Arm rating in SimD seems to be almost insignificant in the infield.) Then I calculate an overall value at this position with a weighted
average between defense and offense. Value at SS is taken at 70% batting, 30% defense, while an outfielder is 95% batting, 5% defense.
Now, I try to fill the 8 positions, starting with the catcher. Then I loop through the remaining remaining positions, trying to find the best match for that position. Since
the infield players are harder to find, I go in the order SS, 2B, 3B, 1B, CF, RF, LF. Catcher is the only position where I do consider qualifications, that is, my algorithm
will never choose a fielder to play at the catcher position as long as there is a catcher on the roster. (But it may very well play a second catcher in the field once the
catcher position is filled.) In all other positions I will place players regardless of qualification, so I assume that each owner will have players change positions as
necessary, and I ignore the penalty for playing out of position.
Example: The best Catcher on my team is Weaver. Then, at SS the best player is Conger. The best remaining player for 2B is Caldwell, the best remaining 3B is Henry, and so
on. Going through the other positions I end up with a roster that is in most cases different from my true lineup, but looks quite reasonable:
C Matt Weaver 105,4 26
1B Rich Rojas 105,4 24
2B Rip Caldwell 110,0 31
3B Frank Henry 112,9 33
SS John Conger 114,7 33
LF Bob Gonzalez 103,6 31
CF Carmona Harzenburg 109,3 33
RF Rod Roth 105,9 26
All values are then normalized such that 100 would represent an average player in our league. As our league is a bit stronger than most dynasty leagues, that means roughly a
3% penalty for all players.So yeah, a rating of 100 makes an average team, as you would expect. A team with a 105 average rating can usually expect 90-100 wins, depending on
the competition in the league, a team with a 95 rating faces the threat of a 100 loss season.
1970 CDL power rankings
September 17, 2017 at 01:13PM View BBCode
Hi,it's time for the very first issue of the CDL power rankings.
I've got a request to continue my power rankings for the new league. OK, here we go :)
For those of you not from the BLL, I do these power rankings once a season (if I get around to doing them, I'm afraid). To create them I use a program that I have developed over the years that rates players and predicts their development. (Yes, I have a very sabermetric approach to this game.) It's pretty much automated so all values I post are what they are, an approximation of the team value that has served me well over the years, but certainly not 100% accurate. I always add the disclaimer that I might rank my team as too strong, because I try to optimize team value according to these ratings.
Full explaination of the algorithm is at the bottom of the text. You should know that I place a lot of value on the top 3 starting pitchers, as they will start 6 of 7 playoff games, and I value contact batting and speed more than other managers, which has served me well in the past. The values are not drawn out of a hat, but a result of a sabermetric analysis from a large nummber of league statistics. Another thing is that the rankings assume that any team plays the best players, which disregards the fact that many rebuilding teams will use younger, weaker players. So if I have say Cleveland at #2 in the AL West, they might in fact finish much lower if they start their youngsters.
I should also note that I do track player development to get a more accurate estimate on player strength. As I have not monitored the JBL in the past, I can only go from the grades. Data should become more accurate after a few years, if I continue to do these previews.
Playoff predictions:
1970: NYA over TOR, NYN over STL. WS: NYA over NYN
1971: NYA over TOR, STL over NYN. WS: NYA over STL
1972: NYA over TOR, STL over ARI. WS: NYA over STL
1973: NYA over BOS, STL over MIA. WS: NYA over STL
Analysis
========
I've predicted a subway series in the BBL and was wrong. I will predict another subway series, but might be wrong as well :)
=============================================================================================================================================
American league:
=============================================================================================================================================
My rankings have 3 of the old BBL occupying in the playoff slots. New York has finished its rebuild and most of their players are entering their prime, so NY is a good bet to win a ring for many years to come. My Yellowjackets are still occupying #2, having declined a bit from previous glory and will soon fade a bit further, but they still have a few good players in their prime. The Boston Bums are sitting at #3. with a rock solid team that will keep them in contention for a number of years, and the Seattle Martians have the #4 spot, another team that will contendig for a while, but looks to get a bit weaker with time. And there is quite a gap to the rest of the team, with Chicago, Cleveland and Oakland already pretty far away and ABE would really have to help them to make the playoffs.
The Minnesota Mavericks and the Baltimore Skipjacks are rebuilding, with Minnesota lookin like the team of the future right now.
=======
AL East
=======
1. New York Navigators
======================
The Navigators were the strongest team in the BBL, and are now the strongest team in the JBL, period. I have no idea why they missed the playoffs in the last 2 seasons - ABE was not smiling on them, that's for sure. They have 4 great starters that could be #1 for almost any other team (Quintana, Lanning, Radonovich, Martin) with plenty of depth behind them (Hanzo, Tweksbury and Schwall). The oldest player in this group is just OS31. On the batting side, 7 players rank as great or above average, with no glaring weakness in the lineup. 2 players are OS33, the rest is younger. This team is my #1 pick to win a ring for the next 3-4 seasons.
The minors look a bit depleted, but still contain a few nice prospects. The Navigators do not look like a team that will flame out quickly.
2. Toronto Yellowjackets
========================
My team has been to 5 straight world series in the BBL, even though we managed to win only one ring. Age is beginning to show a bit, and there are a few holes in the roster.
The rotation still features very strong 1-2-3 slots (and will continue to do so, as the oldest in the group is OS32), which will give my team a decent chance to win in the playoffs, if I make it this far. Only one more pitcher is above average though, we have no closer to speak of and the bullpen in general will be weak.
The batting lineup looks better, with 8 above-average players they appear to be the strongest group in the league. 3 players are OS33, the rest is younger. We'll have a good window of opportunity for 3 more years, maybe 4, before a rebuild is looming.
The minors are looking a bit thin. LaRoss and Mejias will become good pitchers, but that's pretty much it.
3. Seattle Martians
====================
The Martians managed to win the BBL last season, which came as a minor surprise to me. That makes 2 years in a row where they surprised me, my power rankings and (maybe most important) the Navigators, the team that I would have expected to win it all. Will they do it for a third time? My predictions have them as the 3rd strongest team in the old BBL, and not far behind New York and Boston.
The Martians have a very good and deep pitching staff. Even though they're missing an ace, I count no less than 8 good to above average pitchers, and only 2 are OS33 or older. The pitching should be excellent and able to compensate for a few injuries.
The batting group is somewhat weaker. I really like Elmore, Shore and Velazquez, but there is not much depth behind them. Four of their 8 starters are OS33 or older, so this group won't become stronger with time. However, if they shore their batter group up they would be right in the thick of things. Maybe now is the time to sacrifice a bit of youth, or to trade a veteran pitcher for 1-2 veteran batters?
The minors contain 2 players that will help the team soon (Hermanson and Papi) and some depth.
4. Chicago Pale Hose
====================
Chicago has a very respectable rotation, with Schrecongost, McConnell and Wolfgang, plus Armbruster as closer. The batting lineup however can't keep up with the pitching, and will be the reason why Chicago looks at the playoffs from the outside in. I like Schalk and Gandil, Blackburne is OK, but the rest is below average.
The minors contain a few nice pieces but are not exactly loaded. Chicago might be a candidate that trades some veterans for quality prospects, because with system 5 there is certainly room there.
5. Baltimore Skipjacks
======================
The Skipjacks have recently entered a rebuilding phase and are far away from contention. They have a very solid group of pitching prospects, and a handful of batters, but will need to assemble a lot more batters to complete the rebuild. I can see them returning to the spotlight in maybe 5 seasons.
6. Minnesota Mavericks
======================
The Mavericks are another rebuilding team, and I really like the quality of their youngsters. They have a large number of excellent prospects between OS19 and OS24. These players will need a few years to mature, but if I'd have to pick a 1976 champion it would be the Mavericks.
=======
AL West
=======
1. Boston Bums
==============
Boston is yet another team with a strong pitching staff. And the best thing about them is, most of them are just entering their prime. Their best 3 starters (Taylor, Richardson and Davis/Jones) are a tad below the starters in New York and Toronto though, so the advantage goes to NY and TOR in the playoffs.
The batting group is built around 4 strong players with Salmon, Frink, Sanders and Block. Some decent players round out the group, but there is one weakness at catcher that should be addressed if they really want a ring.
The minors contain only one player I really like (Manning), but that's OK as none of their starters is old.
2. Cleveland Lumberjacks
========================
The Lumberjacks might occupy #2, but they're a rebuilding team. Their remaining strength comes from a group of OS34 and older pitchers, and I really see 2 good veterans on the roster in Mattick and Lamb, who should be sold to contending teams. Guerrero also has some trade value at catcher, even though he's only average.
The minors don't look too strong, which would indicate that the rebuild has just started. Another argument to ship the remaining good players.
3. Oakland Panthers
===================
Oakland is another team sitting on the median of my power rankings. They have kind of a generatin problem: They have 4 good, young pitchers who are OS23 to OS29, while their batting lineup is predominantly in the OS31-OOS33 group, with not a lot of talent coming up there. So Oakland will need to do something to avoid mediocrity for the next few years.
4. Washington Generals
======================
Washington has several pitchers in the OS24-OS28 age range that need a bit time to mature. The batting lineup has a few solid pieces, but also some below average players. The problem is that I don't see even close to 8 good batters that will be there once those young pitchers are ready, so Washington is another team that should think about either moving a few players.
5. Anaheim Twins
================
Anaheim is a rebuilding team. I see some good young players already, but they will have to rebuild for some more years before that roster is complete.
6. Texas Tornado
================
Texas is another rebuilding team, in a very similar situation as Anaheim. Some young players are there, some are missing, the future will show where the road leads.
=============================================================================================================================================
National league:
=============================================================================================================================================
The national league appears to be more open to the american league. The Giants and Fury look set up to win their division, and behind them are Arizona, San Diego, Chicago and Brooklyn, with Colorado, Miami and Pittsburgh having a shot too. This may be the last shot the Giants have though with their aging team. I must admit I like the talent level in the AL better, while the AL has some very good teams and some teams that look as if they may become very good, the NL has a lot of teams that appear to hover around .500 for the next few years.
=======
NL east
=======
1. New York Giants
==================
The Giants dominated the BBL for the last few years, but they're getting old. The top pitchers are 4 players at age OS36, OS36, OS37 and OS33. In the batting group, only 4 players are good, and they're an old group too. New York will compete for one more year, maybe 2 if they're very lucky with retirement and aging, and then head for a lengthy rebuild.
2. Arizona Desert Dogs
======================
The Desert Dogs look to have a good shot at the playoffs. They have a clear ace in Gowdy,a solid #2 and #3 and a decent closer, plus some batters that I like, and most of them have a few more good years ahead of them. That's the good news. The bad news is that there are some holes on the roster too, as they could use at least another good starter and 1-2 more good batters, and I don't see those players in the minors. Those holes will be tough to overcome in the playoffs, as there are a few teams around that don't have similar holes.
3. Colorado Corruption
======================
Colorado is a young team, and I see a lot of potential in their minors. The pitching staff is already quite good with Moraetes, Lopez and Douglas, but the batting lineup is a ragtag group of veterans that just warm the bench for the youngsters that need a few more years in the minors. We'll see where that leaves the team. But I should also point out that Colorado might consider trading Moraetes and Lopez, as they will be near retirement once the young batters are ready.
4. Pittsburgh Crew Dogs
=======================
The Crew Dogs have a few decent players near the end of their career. Many of their batters look like they'll need dentures soon. That translates into a looming full rebuild. The Crew Dogs are still good enough to have a shot at the playoffs, but maybe the better strategy would be to sell whatever they can sell, and go for the rebuild.
5. Montreal Royals
==================
Things are easier for Montreal. They are rebuilding, and will be fore some more years. I like the young pitching group, and they've also acquired a few good batters, if they continue this path they'll be back in contention soon.
6. Cincinnati Red Dogs
======================
The Red Dogs are rebuilding, too. Looks like they've got most of their pieces together already, and are just waiting for the young guys to mature. They should be in the playoff hunt in just a few seasons.
=======
NL west
=======
1. St. Louis Fury
=================
If you look at the pitching staff, STL looks like a championship team, and all those guys are entering their prime. The batting lineup shows a few holes though, and some of their best players will decline soon. The Fury looks to be strong enough for a shot at the championship, this year and a number of years to come, but their odds were a lot better if they could add a batter or two.
2. San Diego Surfers
====================
San Diego is a solid team, with two excellent pitchers that will both decline next year. However, that may be exactly their problem: The pitching staff is solid, the batters are solid, but they lack the stars and the pitching ace to get them to the world series. My predictions have them in the middle of the pack for the next few years (and a bit better this year due to the two old pitchers), so to break mediocrity they'll have to make some moves.
3. Chicago Skyscrapers
======================
Chicago looks a bit like a scrapbook - Irvine and Schatzeder are good pitchers, but the rest of the pitchers are pedestrian. They also have 5 pretty good batters, but that's not enough to field a team. As a consequence, I see them around .500 this season, and probably a rebuild coming up.
4. Brooklyn Trolley Dodgers
===========================
The Trolley Dodgers are another team that centers around .500 for the next few seasons. They have some good young pitchers, a group that I'd gladly build a team around, but the current pitching staff is weak. Conversely, they have a few good batters, but also some holes and not a lot of young guys h. Something needs to be done about that I'm afraid, unless .500 is good enough.
5. Miami Terra Sol
==================
Yet another team that looks like it's gonna end up around .500. Teach is the lone wolf in a pitching staff that has some young guys that might become good given time. The batting lineup lacks a star, and has just 3 players that I would consider average. My predicions see the team improving a bit over the next few years, but not enough to be contending.
San Francisco Chicken Rats
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San Fran is obviously rebuilding. There are some good young players in the team already, some more will have to be drafted before the team returns to the playoffs.
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The numbers are calculated fully automated by a little program I use, the analysis is done by hand obviously.A player has a numerical value for the current skills and the
potential value (just like win shares, runs created/saved and so on) so that I can order them from best to worst. The ability to compare teams is a byproduct of this, but
not really a focus. The input is the csv document that you can download at the team stats pages (that do contain the ratings), or the downloadable draft spreadsheet.
The ranking algorithm is rather easy: I rank the current value of a player using linear weights - for pitchers its basically C1*CON + C2*VEL + C3*END, with some constants
C1, C2, C3, for batters I calculate batting power C1*CON + C2*PWR + C3*SPD, take 75% vsR and 25% vsL to get an overall batting power, and assign a bonus/penalty for defense.
For the pitchers, the 5 starters are now weighted 120% for the best 3, 90% for the 4th and 50% for the 5th starter. This is due to the fact that the top 3 will start 2 games
in playoffs, and pitch a few more games in the regular season (a #5 starter usually gets about 22-24 games, while a #1 guy will get about 36). In the bullpen, I value the 4
best pitchers, with the best reliever (closer) getting 140%, the 2nd reliever 120%, and the other 2 guys 70%. (Personally, that's how I use my pitchers - 1-2 guys to handle
all the close games, and the remaining pitchers usually don't pitch a whole lot, and only when the games are not close.
For the batting value I choose the 8 best batters. I do not consider health (in the playoffs no players have to rest, and for the regular season I just ignore it so far), or
that a manager may sit players to develop younger ones or chooses players with good mentoring value over better players that are no good mentors. The system works as this: I
calculate a batting rating for a player that is independent of his position. Then I calculate a defensive ability for each position - a catcher or an outfielder needs a good
arm, an infielder good range. For example, at 1B I rank the defense at 95% range, 5% arm, while a SS has 80% range, 20% arm. (This follows some discussion in the forum a few
months ago, where it turned out that Arm rating in SimD seems to be almost insignificant in the infield.) Then I calculate an overall value at this position with a weighted
average between defense and offense. Value at SS is taken at 70% batting, 30% defense, while an outfielder is 95% batting, 5% defense.
Now, I try to fill the 8 positions, starting with the catcher. Then I loop through the remaining remaining positions, trying to find the best match for that position. Since
the infield players are harder to find, I go in the order SS, 2B, 3B, 1B, CF, RF, LF. Catcher is the only position where I do consider qualifications, that is, my algorithm
will never choose a fielder to play at the catcher position as long as there is a catcher on the roster. (But it may very well play a second catcher in the field once the
catcher position is filled.) In all other positions I will place players regardless of qualification, so I assume that each owner will have players change positions as
necessary, and I ignore the penalty for playing out of position.
Example: The best Catcher on my team is Weaver. Then, at SS the best player is Conger. The best remaining player for 2B is Caldwell, the best remaining 3B is Henry, and so
on. Going through the other positions I end up with a roster that is in most cases different from my true lineup, but looks quite reasonable:
C Matt Weaver 105,4 26
1B Rich Rojas 105,4 24
2B Rip Caldwell 110,0 31
3B Frank Henry 112,9 33
SS John Conger 114,7 33
LF Bob Gonzalez 103,6 31
CF Carmona Harzenburg 109,3 33
RF Rod Roth 105,9 26
All values are then normalized such that 100 would represent an average player in our league. As our league is a bit stronger than most dynasty leagues, that means roughly a
3% penalty for all players.So yeah, a rating of 100 makes an average team, as you would expect. A team with a 105 average rating can usually expect 90-100 wins, depending on
the competition in the league, a team with a 95 rating faces the threat of a 100 loss season.
MNRebel
September 17, 2017 at 01:56PM View BBCode
Ask and we receive!! Great job again Fru...always a fun read. Did Carl do a team rating every season in the JBL? This whole thing originated from Carl in the BBL so it very fitting that we have a CDL power ranking!
reddogs
Very interesting reading.
I always enjoy managing beyond the mathematical. Or mismanaging, whatever the case may be. ( and in case of the latter I blame ABE) LOL
September 17, 2017 at 10:16PM View BBCode
He used to do one, but had not done one for a while. I always looked forward to them every season. I am thankful that Frunobulax has taken the time and effort to produce this format.Very interesting reading.
I always enjoy managing beyond the mathematical. Or mismanaging, whatever the case may be. ( and in case of the latter I blame ABE) LOL
SIRKERRETH
September 17, 2017 at 10:29PM View BBCode
I've seen this done before on the message boards, but never been in a league that has had anyone do it. I think it's awesome, so thanks for taking the time. I'm a little dissapointed in the evaluation, but you can't argue with numbers. Right now it's bulletin board material. LoL Thanks again and I'm already looking forward to next seasons. KW
Lyrici17
September 19, 2017 at 04:25AM View BBCode
Wow, thanks for all the work that went into this.... Now to go back and really take it all in...Pages: 1