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cheflonster
The results were fairly even
Heres the analysis from the 10$ penalty on 110 losses
1. 10 year avg is almost spot on
2. worst 4 teams got 8/10 #1's
3. team 10 and 12 got the other 2
In the 2nd 10 year study
same 2
3. team 11 got the other 2
1. deviation from their original spot was a little worse but still not off by too much
and heres the analysis on the 20% penalty
1. the 10 yr avg has alot more deviation than the previous
2. worst 4 teams got ony 4 and 3 #1 picks on the 2 simulations, extemely different than 8
Not gonna run a 30% penalty simulation, instead gonna run a 15% penalty, because i think the etra 10% was way too harsh, the worst team only got 1 #1 in each 10 yr study
20% penalty-lottery simulation
September 09, 2017 at 05:14AM View BBCode
SO I ran 2 10 year ping pong ball lottery systems.The results were fairly even
Heres the analysis from the 10$ penalty on 110 losses
1. 10 year avg is almost spot on
2. worst 4 teams got 8/10 #1's
3. team 10 and 12 got the other 2
In the 2nd 10 year study
same 2
3. team 11 got the other 2
1. deviation from their original spot was a little worse but still not off by too much
and heres the analysis on the 20% penalty
1. the 10 yr avg has alot more deviation than the previous
2. worst 4 teams got ony 4 and 3 #1 picks on the 2 simulations, extemely different than 8
Not gonna run a 30% penalty simulation, instead gonna run a 15% penalty, because i think the etra 10% was way too harsh, the worst team only got 1 #1 in each 10 yr study
FrosteeTBear
September 10, 2017 at 02:22AM View BBCode
I thought they were not supposed to get the #1 pick if they were losing 110 games. Swope and I run two different leagues and we make it simple by just saying that a team that loses 110 games cannot pick 1st or 2nd--I think it works great?!
rickskbc
Genius. Simple is as simple does. Now that is a compromise for anti tanking that takes as much objectivity as you can possibly take out. That seems to be a fair fix with keeping the current rules intact.
[Edited on 9-10-2017 by rickskbc]
September 10, 2017 at 02:50AM View BBCode
FrosteeTbearGenius. Simple is as simple does. Now that is a compromise for anti tanking that takes as much objectivity as you can possibly take out. That seems to be a fair fix with keeping the current rules intact.
[Edited on 9-10-2017 by rickskbc]
cheflonster
1. In the 1st set, 8/10 for the worst team is 1st or 2nd pick
2. In the 1st set 8/10 top picks are with the worst 4 teams
3. After i ran this sim. the 10% penalty seems really harsh I will try a 5% penalty and see the effects
no penalty results
September 10, 2017 at 05:08AM View BBCode
here is the no penalty 10 yr simulation and analysis1. In the 1st set, 8/10 for the worst team is 1st or 2nd pick
2. In the 1st set 8/10 top picks are with the worst 4 teams
3. After i ran this sim. the 10% penalty seems really harsh I will try a 5% penalty and see the effects
cheflonster has attached this file: FHL draft lottery 0%.xlsx (application/vnd.openxmlformats-officedocument.spreadsheetml.sheet)
swope81
I agree with Frostee as well, our EOL system is simple and works.
September 10, 2017 at 06:52PM View BBCode
Originally posted by rickskbc
FrosteeTbear
Genius. Simple is as simple does. Now that is a compromise for anti tanking that takes as much objectivity as you can possibly take out. That seems to be a fair fix with keeping the current rules intact.
[Edited on 9-10-2017 by rickskbc]
I agree with Frostee as well, our EOL system is simple and works.
swope81
I know some guys will balk at any change whatsoever so I doubt it will go through. But keep in mind, the rules target everyone, not just one or two guys.
I hate when guys use the excuse that it will keep the good teams on top or 'It will hurt my team and I'll just leave the league'. First off, no it won't hurt your team and secondly, aren't the good owners on top most of the time anyway? Regardless of what system is employed. That is of course why they are considered the good owners.
September 10, 2017 at 08:48PM View BBCode
That being said, I'm all about trying a more drastic system. I think it could be fun.I know some guys will balk at any change whatsoever so I doubt it will go through. But keep in mind, the rules target everyone, not just one or two guys.
I hate when guys use the excuse that it will keep the good teams on top or 'It will hurt my team and I'll just leave the league'. First off, no it won't hurt your team and secondly, aren't the good owners on top most of the time anyway? Regardless of what system is employed. That is of course why they are considered the good owners.
rodrayha
September 10, 2017 at 10:57PM View BBCode
I tend to agree with Swope..and unfortunately Frostee. I think if you lose 110 games you should drop and if more than one team loses 110 then they all drop. With a 12 team league (EOL) we drop to 3rd, so in a 24 team league I think you should drop to 5th or 6th. good owners tend to find a way to make it work.
cheflonster
Feedback please.
September 11, 2017 at 01:02AM View BBCode
5th or 6th is drastic, i think my 10% scheme is drastic compared to no penalty, but what i might be inclined to is 5% penalty for 110 losses; 10% penalty on 120 losses and a drop no more than 3 in the lottery. on 130 losses 15% penalty and a drop no more than 4, keep subtracting every 10 losses.Feedback please.
swope81
5th or 6th in a 24 man league isn't as drastic as it sounds. Keep in mind that the draft classes for a 24 man league are also much bigger. And with a higher chance for multiple stud prospects.
September 11, 2017 at 01:50AM View BBCode
Originally posted by cheflonster
5th or 6th is drastic, i think my 10% scheme is drastic compared to no penalty, but what i might be inclined to is 5% penalty for 110 losses; 10% penalty on 120 losses and a drop no more than 3 in the lottery. on 130 losses 15% penalty and a drop no more than 4, keep subtracting every 10 losses.
Feedback please.
5th or 6th in a 24 man league isn't as drastic as it sounds. Keep in mind that the draft classes for a 24 man league are also much bigger. And with a higher chance for multiple stud prospects.
swope81
:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:
You don't even know how hard I'm laughing over here.
September 11, 2017 at 01:52AM View BBCode
Originally posted by rodrayha
I tend to agree with Swope..and unfortunately Frostee.
:lol::lol::lol::lol::lol::lol:
You don't even know how hard I'm laughing over here.
rodrayha
** Better analogy.. If I could act and talk like Frostee and still date the Prom queen (or King in his case) 8 nights out of 10 I wouldn't feel deterred at all. I look at your scenario as a draft lottery and not an anti tanking rule.
September 11, 2017 at 02:22AM View BBCode
If under the 10% model has the worst teams getting the top pick 80% of the time how is that going to impact tanking? if you told me that by losing I would still have the top pick 80% of the time I wouldn't change anything.** Better analogy.. If I could act and talk like Frostee and still date the Prom queen (or King in his case) 8 nights out of 10 I wouldn't feel deterred at all. I look at your scenario as a draft lottery and not an anti tanking rule.
cheflonster
no penalty=8/10 and 5/10= 1 of the top 2 picks
10% penalty=7/10 and 5/10
20% penalty=6/10 and 3/10
the real penalty comes that these penalized teams that drafted 3 might have been at 4. All it takes is one time losing out on a 21OS A/A with A end and u would start to think twice about the make up of ur team.
September 11, 2017 at 05:12AM View BBCode
how bout this comparison for the worst teamno penalty=8/10 and 5/10= 1 of the top 2 picks
10% penalty=7/10 and 5/10
20% penalty=6/10 and 3/10
the real penalty comes that these penalized teams that drafted 3 might have been at 4. All it takes is one time losing out on a 21OS A/A with A end and u would start to think twice about the make up of ur team.
FrosteeTBear
[Edited on 9-12-2017 by FrosteeTBear]
September 12, 2017 at 01:16AM View BBCode
Run some stupid penalty draft scenario based on the day of the week or some shitt and you can count me gone--if you want to do something different run the wheel draft where everyone gets the draft order based on what year --they pick #1 one year-then they pick 16 the next and so on--that will shake things up![Edited on 9-12-2017 by FrosteeTBear]
cheflonster
September 13, 2017 at 01:25AM View BBCode
I say if the day of the draft has an s or t in it then frosteeeee drafts last
bostonhitz
September 13, 2017 at 01:51PM View BBCode
This made my brain hurt. I like the simple scenario where if you lose 110 games you can't pick 1 or 2. As long as everyone is on board with that, I am okay too.
radicalhapa
September 14, 2017 at 03:45AM View BBCode
lets vote using ranked voting! and whatever has the most (including keep current system) wins...
cheflonster
1. drop to 2nd
2. drop to 5th
September 14, 2017 at 09:48AM View BBCode
ranked already won, i dont want to rush into a penalty i am looking for a few options for a penalty. i believe other than mine we have 2.1. drop to 2nd
2. drop to 5th
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