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JoeyMac08
The system basically give you points based on your record, wins over winning teams, division wins, and lose points for losses against losing teams.
1. Minnesota 346.25
2. New England 331.25
3. Pittsburgh 318.75
4. Tennessee 270.00
T5. San Antonio 263.75
T5. San Francisco 263.75
7. Denver 258.75
8. Anaheim 256.25
9. Washington 235.00
10. British Columbia 222.50
Team Rankings
May 12, 2016 at 01:21AM View BBCode
I've been tinkering with a formula to rank the teams for about half the season now. I think I've got a decent system here. Ill post the final results below and we can see how they end up. This isn't to predict winners, more on how tough a team is to play against. I guess its kind of like the BCS rankings in college. Any input is welcomed. If you guys like it ill roll it out next season around week 7.The system basically give you points based on your record, wins over winning teams, division wins, and lose points for losses against losing teams.
1. Minnesota 346.25
2. New England 331.25
3. Pittsburgh 318.75
4. Tennessee 270.00
T5. San Antonio 263.75
T5. San Francisco 263.75
7. Denver 258.75
8. Anaheim 256.25
9. Washington 235.00
10. British Columbia 222.50
groovynusicman
May 12, 2016 at 01:45AM View BBCode
outstanding thanks for the great effort. good luck everyone in the playoffs.
replayer2012
May 12, 2016 at 10:16AM View BBCode
i guess I would have been higher if I didn't lose those last two games. turnovers killed my teams so I guess it time to change that
JoeyMac08
May 12, 2016 at 03:52PM View BBCode
They actually didn't hurt you too bad since they were against winning teams. You lost out on win percentage points.
max_fischer
May 12, 2016 at 04:30PM View BBCode
So I have the fourth-best team in the league but missed the playoffs by two games? Did I just have a much tougher schedule than others?
redsoxrule
May 12, 2016 at 04:54PM View BBCode
Do you think there's a way to incorporate points for and against. Maybe come up with a formula for winning percentage times points for and against so as not to get crazy for the teams blowing out the bad teams, but would be rewarded based on the score of beating a better team? Not sure how to work it, but just throwing something out there to think about!!
geosfreddy
I think that's where the strength of opponents plays a key role. The PF/PA
pass totals and run totals on the D and the O can be very very miss leading.
for example TEN - faced Min and SA 2 times each -- not a very desired double double whammy and so on.
Lest we forget the AC - North blood baths---
May 12, 2016 at 05:09PM View BBCode
Originally posted by redsoxrule
Do you think there's a way to incorporate points for and against. Maybe come up with a formula for winning percentage times points for and against so as not to get crazy for the teams blowing out the bad teams, but would be rewarded based on the score of beating a better team? Not sure how to work it, but just throwing something out there to think about!!
I think that's where the strength of opponents plays a key role. The PF/PA
pass totals and run totals on the D and the O can be very very miss leading.
for example TEN - faced Min and SA 2 times each -- not a very desired double double whammy and so on.
Lest we forget the AC - North blood baths---
Cueball899
I'm 8th with a 13-3 record, 2nd highest net points, 2nd fewest points against, 4th most points scored. 5-1 division record, 10-2 conf. record.
I think pa and pf or np at least against playoff teams or winning teams should be added.
May 12, 2016 at 05:42PM View BBCode
Originally posted by max_fischer
So I have the fourth-best team in the league but missed the playoffs by two games? Did I just have a much tougher schedule than others?
I'm 8th with a 13-3 record, 2nd highest net points, 2nd fewest points against, 4th most points scored. 5-1 division record, 10-2 conf. record.
I think pa and pf or np at least against playoff teams or winning teams should be added.
JoeyMac08
You are the perfect example this season. Yes you had a 13-3 record but who did you beat? You had a soft schedule. That's why you're at 8th. To gain points you need to beat teams with winning records. It's not your fault you didn't play a tougher schedule. Like every formula, it will have its flaws. This isn't saying you aren't a good team, it's just judging results compared to each team.
Tennessee got a real boost by playing a tough schedule. They beat both Min and SA which was major win points. Losing to winning teams will not hurt your score.
Doing PF/PA is misleading. Blowing out bad teams shouldn't raise your score. They should get beat bad. I'll look into PF/PA and see if there is a way to incorporate it that seems fit.
Keep the comments coming! All good stuff. Remember this isn't to put any team down. Just a new wrinkle. If you are in the playoffs, you have a legit chance to win it all! Good luck to all!
May 12, 2016 at 06:01PM View BBCode
CueYou are the perfect example this season. Yes you had a 13-3 record but who did you beat? You had a soft schedule. That's why you're at 8th. To gain points you need to beat teams with winning records. It's not your fault you didn't play a tougher schedule. Like every formula, it will have its flaws. This isn't saying you aren't a good team, it's just judging results compared to each team.
Tennessee got a real boost by playing a tough schedule. They beat both Min and SA which was major win points. Losing to winning teams will not hurt your score.
Doing PF/PA is misleading. Blowing out bad teams shouldn't raise your score. They should get beat bad. I'll look into PF/PA and see if there is a way to incorporate it that seems fit.
Keep the comments coming! All good stuff. Remember this isn't to put any team down. Just a new wrinkle. If you are in the playoffs, you have a legit chance to win it all! Good luck to all!
replayer2012
May 12, 2016 at 07:08PM View BBCode
so is the rankings only base on who had the tougher schedule cause I'm tied for fifth with San Francisco but their numbers are better than mines. in fact they are the best offenses team in the league, top 5 in sacks and top 10 in ints. they may not have the best record (which they did last season) but their still a deadly team to play. I haven't play them yet so I don't know first hand but I wouldn't look forward to playing them
JoeyMac08
Teams are given a score based on their record. If you are 10-6 your team score is 40. 10-6 is 4 times 10 is how you get to 40.
If you are 6-10 you are a -40.
If you beat a team with a positive score, aka a team with a winning record, you get their team score. So in the above example if you beat a 10-6 team you get 40 pts. If you lose to that team, you don't gain or lose any points.
If you beat a 6-10 team, you get no bonus points. If you lose to a 6-10 team, you get deducted 20 pts. For losses you lose half of their score. So a 6-10 team has a rating of -40. Take half of that and subtract it from your total score.
You also get points based on your winning percent out of 100.
You get 15pts per division win regardless of the teams record.
So each week every teams score will change. If you beat a team in week 1, you will end up getting the same points for that win as a team that beats them in week 9 and week 17.
So teams playing better teams will score higher than a team playing average teams. This isn't really a ranking of which team is better. It's more of a rating on how hard a team is to beat compared to the league average.
May 12, 2016 at 08:21PM View BBCode
Here is the gist of the ranking formula.Teams are given a score based on their record. If you are 10-6 your team score is 40. 10-6 is 4 times 10 is how you get to 40.
If you are 6-10 you are a -40.
If you beat a team with a positive score, aka a team with a winning record, you get their team score. So in the above example if you beat a 10-6 team you get 40 pts. If you lose to that team, you don't gain or lose any points.
If you beat a 6-10 team, you get no bonus points. If you lose to a 6-10 team, you get deducted 20 pts. For losses you lose half of their score. So a 6-10 team has a rating of -40. Take half of that and subtract it from your total score.
You also get points based on your winning percent out of 100.
You get 15pts per division win regardless of the teams record.
So each week every teams score will change. If you beat a team in week 1, you will end up getting the same points for that win as a team that beats them in week 9 and week 17.
So teams playing better teams will score higher than a team playing average teams. This isn't really a ranking of which team is better. It's more of a rating on how hard a team is to beat compared to the league average.
JoeyMac08
May 12, 2016 at 08:25PM View BBCode
Just looked at the results. Each game was won by the team with the higher rating in my rankings. And they were all the lower seed. Not sure if that means anything.
Cueball899
Meaning if you beat a 15-1 team 31- 14 would give you more points then if you beat a 15-1 team 21-20.
PF and PA against teams with losing records don't matter at all.
May 12, 2016 at 08:28PM View BBCode
I understand what your trying to do. Just think we should find a way to input PA and PF against winning teams. To truly find out who was the toughest team to play.Meaning if you beat a 15-1 team 31- 14 would give you more points then if you beat a 15-1 team 21-20.
PF and PA against teams with losing records don't matter at all.
JoeyMac08
May 12, 2016 at 08:34PM View BBCode
I could add 17pts for beat the 15-1 as opposed to adding 1 if you won 21-20. What do you suggest?
Cueball899
Offense
Passing index= (passer rating/15.83)+(yards per attempt/incompletions per game)
Offensive line index= rushing first downs per game/sacks per game
Defense
Coverage index=(incompletions per game/yards per attempt)-(passer rating/15.83)
Defensive line index= sacks per game/rushing first downs per game
Overall= Points scored per game- points allowed per game+ turnover margin per game
Rank index=passing index+OL index+ coverage index+DL index+ overall
Then add your schedule rank and the rank index.
Don't know if it will work, just found it online for NFL Power Rankings from Bleeding Green Nation.
May 12, 2016 at 08:55PM View BBCode
I just found this power rankings.Offense
Passing index= (passer rating/15.83)+(yards per attempt/incompletions per game)
Offensive line index= rushing first downs per game/sacks per game
Defense
Coverage index=(incompletions per game/yards per attempt)-(passer rating/15.83)
Defensive line index= sacks per game/rushing first downs per game
Overall= Points scored per game- points allowed per game+ turnover margin per game
Rank index=passing index+OL index+ coverage index+DL index+ overall
Then add your schedule rank and the rank index.
Don't know if it will work, just found it online for NFL Power Rankings from Bleeding Green Nation.
JoeyMac08
Pittsburgh beat Denver 2 out of 3 times this year including in the playoffs.
Pitt had a NP of 24
Den NP of 135.
Pitt won by 13 and 10 lose by 3.
My rankings clearly have Pitt better. Net points isnt even close in Denvers favor.
Take it for what it's worth. Let's see how they work out for a year first before we kill it.
May 12, 2016 at 09:05PM View BBCode
This does not take into consideration quality of opponents at all. Plus I believe passer rating is way off in the sim. Better teams score more points and give up less. It's pretty much a given.Pittsburgh beat Denver 2 out of 3 times this year including in the playoffs.
Pitt had a NP of 24
Den NP of 135.
Pitt won by 13 and 10 lose by 3.
My rankings clearly have Pitt better. Net points isnt even close in Denvers favor.
Take it for what it's worth. Let's see how they work out for a year first before we kill it.
Prideco
I think you might have stumbled across a formula for coming up with DPOY. Good job
May 12, 2016 at 11:02PM View BBCode
Originally posted by Cueball899
I just found this power rankings.
Offense
Passing index= (passer rating/15.83)+(yards per attempt/incompletions per game)
Offensive line index= rushing first downs per game/sacks per game
Defense
Coverage index=(incompletions per game/yards per attempt)-(passer rating/15.83)
Defensive line index= sacks per game/rushing first downs per game
Overall= Points scored per game- points allowed per game+ turnover margin per game
Rank index=passing index+OL index+ coverage index+DL index+ overall
Then add your schedule rank and the rank index.
Don't know if it will work, just found it online for NFL Power Rankings from Bleeding Green Nation.
I think you might have stumbled across a formula for coming up with DPOY. Good job
Cueball899
Didn't even think about that. Might just work.
May 13, 2016 at 01:07AM View BBCode
Originally posted by Prideco
Originally posted by Cueball899
I just found this power rankings.
Offense
Passing index= (passer rating/15.83)+(yards per attempt/incompletions per game)
Offensive line index= rushing first downs per game/sacks per game
Defense
Coverage index=(incompletions per game/yards per attempt)-(passer rating/15.83)
Defensive line index= sacks per game/rushing first downs per game
Overall= Points scored per game- points allowed per game+ turnover margin per game
Rank index=passing index+OL index+ coverage index+DL index+ overall
Then add your schedule rank and the rank index.
Don't know if it will work, just found it online for NFL Power Rankings from Bleeding Green Nation.
I think you might have stumbled across a formula for coming up with DPOY. Good job
Didn't even think about that. Might just work.
Cueball899
May 13, 2016 at 01:10AM View BBCode
It would take a lot of work to figure out, say Corner X and how many incompletions per game and the passer rating for each game.
geosfreddy
Right now 1-2-3-5-6-8 ranked teams are still in it.... that's 6 of the top 10
#3 defeated #7 and # 5 defeated # 10 today --- more tomorrow
PA-PF --- what about the teams that like to control the clock with a 4th qtr 2 score lead? etc... and or the 1 or 2 games with possible second strigers coming in with a huge lead probably leading to junky TD's against etc... again too much work to do with too many variables.
May 13, 2016 at 01:27AM View BBCode
If we complicate things to much it will be too much to handle over a period of time with 32 teams etc...Right now 1-2-3-5-6-8 ranked teams are still in it.... that's 6 of the top 10
#3 defeated #7 and # 5 defeated # 10 today --- more tomorrow
PA-PF --- what about the teams that like to control the clock with a 4th qtr 2 score lead? etc... and or the 1 or 2 games with possible second strigers coming in with a huge lead probably leading to junky TD's against etc... again too much work to do with too many variables.
max_fischer
May 13, 2016 at 02:17PM View BBCode
I like what you're doing joey. Thanks for putting in the work.
JoeyMac08
May 13, 2016 at 03:27PM View BBCode
Through halftime, all 4 games are being won by the higher "rated" team. Still a lot of time left tho. 2 games by 1 score and another is a 10pt difference. Pittsburgh is in a tough spot. They have more completions to NE, 4 than to its own team, 1. The weather is really killing Pitt.Pages: 1 2