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Frunobulax
I was wondering what exactly contributes to the CS% percentage. I have some teams where I am a healthy 15% behind the league leaders, even though I have catchers with maxed arm (100) and fielders with very good range (A or A+ at 2B and SS).
Of course I expect some random fluctuation from season to season. Still, is there anything beside catcher arm that influences the success rate of stealing?
Regards, F.
How to prevent stolen bases?
July 29, 2015 at 07:23AM View BBCode
Hi,I was wondering what exactly contributes to the CS% percentage. I have some teams where I am a healthy 15% behind the league leaders, even though I have catchers with maxed arm (100) and fielders with very good range (A or A+ at 2B and SS).
Of course I expect some random fluctuation from season to season. Still, is there anything beside catcher arm that influences the success rate of stealing?
Regards, F.
ballmark
? Situation
? Speed
? Inning
? Score
? Catcher Arm
Whether or not a codebit makes the decision to attempt a steal will be driven by however many of these factors have been weighted by the opposing manager, and then by however many of those situations are created within each game's simulation.
The only thing you can really control to stop a running game is use the backstop with the best arm and roster a stable of quality SP that will keep opposing runners off the bases.
July 29, 2015 at 08:22AM View BBCode
I believe - looking at the Manager Prefs for Baserunning - there are actually *five* factors that contribute to the Stolen Base situation:? Situation
? Speed
? Inning
? Score
? Catcher Arm
Whether or not a codebit makes the decision to attempt a steal will be driven by however many of these factors have been weighted by the opposing manager, and then by however many of those situations are created within each game's simulation.
The only thing you can really control to stop a running game is use the backstop with the best arm and roster a stable of quality SP that will keep opposing runners off the bases.
WillyD
July 29, 2015 at 04:56PM View BBCode
There's one more thing you both forgot...the pitcher's arm rating.
tm4559
July 30, 2015 at 06:34PM View BBCode
well yeah. if the runner gets picked off, he obviously can't steal. its a fun play, but it doesn't happen very often.
WillyD
It affects more than that. They way I understand it, it can actually help prevent a runner from trying to steal.
It might even contribute to the factoring of the actual attempt (not sure about this).
July 30, 2015 at 09:19PM View BBCode
Originally posted by tm4559
well yeah. if the runner gets picked off, he obviously can't steal. its a fun play, but it doesn't happen very often.
It affects more than that. They way I understand it, it can actually help prevent a runner from trying to steal.
It might even contribute to the factoring of the actual attempt (not sure about this).
tm4559
July 31, 2015 at 12:51PM View BBCode
we were told at one point that the pitcher was only involved in the pickoff play. perhaps it was changed.
tm4559
http://www.simdynasty.com/oldforum-viewthread.jsp?tid=50678#pid292787
July 31, 2015 at 01:34PM View BBCode
here you go.http://www.simdynasty.com/oldforum-viewthread.jsp?tid=50678#pid292787
WillyD
July 31, 2015 at 09:48PM View BBCode
So if that's still true then it doesn't affect the actual steal attempt (other than sometimes picking off the runner), but I still remember reading somewhere that arm can help hold the runners.
paulcaraccio
July 31, 2015 at 10:36PM View BBCode
something must have changed since then. I've never seen a runner get picked off at 3rd. Steals and pickoffs are somehow intertwined. You'll never see a guy get picked off if it wasn't a potential stealing situation according to your mgr prefs, i.e., if you have B+ Speed set to "Never Steal", B+ Speed runners will never get picked off either.
tm4559
July 31, 2015 at 10:53PM View BBCode
The no fun factor of these discussions approaches infinity with a shockingly small number of trials.
paulcaraccio
August 01, 2015 at 05:06AM View BBCode
tm, I think you neglected to accurately define the thread's "fun factor" expectation. Fromnambulox was looking for help, not "fun" 11-year-old conversations.
tm4559
You Don't remember a pickoff at third base. How does this mean it doesn't happen? There are hundreds of thousands of plays you never see or hear about.
August 01, 2015 at 03:59PM View BBCode
The pitcher arm is used for the pickoffs. He as good as says that is all its good for. He implies if it was used for something else, like in stealing, he would have it in the settings. See? Is all subtlety lost on you?You Don't remember a pickoff at third base. How does this mean it doesn't happen? There are hundreds of thousands of plays you never see or hear about.
paulcaraccio
I said I've never seen a pickoff at third base. I didn't say it doesn't happen, but I don't think it does, or I'd have seen it. I had my steal-home settings jacked up for entire seasons, they never run. If you have seen pickoffs at third in the past 6 or 7 years, I'd enjoy checking it out.
August 01, 2015 at 04:32PM View BBCode
That 2004 thread clearly implies that pickoffs and steals are related, try reading it one more time. Tyson says the lack of a setting "might be a problem". Another guy says he wants to steal against pitchers with bad Arm, but not against the pitcher with good Arm. That's because you only get picked off when you're trying to steal.I said I've never seen a pickoff at third base. I didn't say it doesn't happen, but I don't think it does, or I'd have seen it. I had my steal-home settings jacked up for entire seasons, they never run. If you have seen pickoffs at third in the past 6 or 7 years, I'd enjoy checking it out.
Frunobulax
Not sure if the pitchers arm has got something to do with that. I have a bunch of B/A+ starters in one league, and I'm doing extremely well picking off runners of in that one.
Regards, F.
August 01, 2015 at 06:57PM View BBCode
Originally posted by WillyD
There's one more thing you both forgot...the pitcher's arm rating.
Not sure if the pitchers arm has got something to do with that. I have a bunch of B/A+ starters in one league, and I'm doing extremely well picking off runners of in that one.
Regards, F.
paulcaraccio
[Edited on 8-1-2015 by paulcaraccio]
August 01, 2015 at 07:07PM View BBCode
do you mean B/A+ in Velocity/Control? I don't think either of those skills influence pickoffs. It's just the Arm, and your opponent's stealing aggressiveness.[Edited on 8-1-2015 by paulcaraccio]
WillyD
So you're asking if something else knows if there's anything else that affects steals, and I mention the pitcher's arm, and now you say I'm wrong. You seem to have all figured out for a guy that asks for help all the time. Is it the only 7+ years of SimD experience, or the lack of titles on my part, that makes you discount my advice? Going forward, I'll not waste your time.
Regards, W.
August 01, 2015 at 11:10PM View BBCode
Originally posted by Frunobulax
Originally posted by WillyD
There's one more thing you both forgot...the pitcher's arm rating.
Not sure if the pitchers arm has got something to do with that. I have a bunch of B/A+ starters in one league, and I'm doing extremely well picking off runners of in that one.
Regards, F.
So you're asking if something else knows if there's anything else that affects steals, and I mention the pitcher's arm, and now you say I'm wrong. You seem to have all figured out for a guy that asks for help all the time. Is it the only 7+ years of SimD experience, or the lack of titles on my part, that makes you discount my advice? Going forward, I'll not waste your time.
Regards, W.
Hamilton2
Would anyone actually like an on-topic answer?
Here it is:
Get a catcher with a very high arm within his letter grade.
All those other factors only influence whether a steal is attempted or not. The success of a steal is pretty much 100% the speed of the runner vs. the arm of the catcher. That's it. It really, really is.
So ... which is better, a catcher with a 93 arm or a 91? (Note, A+ starts at 92.)
You actually want the guy at a 91. Since the base stealing prefs are controlled based in part on the catcher's arm and most people get more aggressive as the arm is lower, you will actually have a higher caught stealing % for a guy with a very high A arm than a very low A+ arm.
Facts. Gotta love 'em.
(Also note, most catchers get to A+ arm, so you really, really want one that will just max that thing out.) Still, having a guy at A or A- isn't the worst thing in the world, IF he is high within that individual grade.
That is how you prevent stolen bases.
[Edited on 8-2-2015 by Hamilton2]
August 02, 2015 at 01:05AM View BBCode
So ... the original question was this "How to prevent stolen bases?"Would anyone actually like an on-topic answer?
Here it is:
Get a catcher with a very high arm within his letter grade.
All those other factors only influence whether a steal is attempted or not. The success of a steal is pretty much 100% the speed of the runner vs. the arm of the catcher. That's it. It really, really is.
So ... which is better, a catcher with a 93 arm or a 91? (Note, A+ starts at 92.)
You actually want the guy at a 91. Since the base stealing prefs are controlled based in part on the catcher's arm and most people get more aggressive as the arm is lower, you will actually have a higher caught stealing % for a guy with a very high A arm than a very low A+ arm.
Facts. Gotta love 'em.
(Also note, most catchers get to A+ arm, so you really, really want one that will just max that thing out.) Still, having a guy at A or A- isn't the worst thing in the world, IF he is high within that individual grade.
That is how you prevent stolen bases.
[Edited on 8-2-2015 by Hamilton2]
WillyD
August 02, 2015 at 01:24AM View BBCode
I think he wanted to know what else affects CS% besides catcher arm.
paulcaraccio
So I'd recommened the 93 over the 91.
August 02, 2015 at 02:31AM View BBCode
you can't change your aggressiveness from A to A+, you can only set it for "A" which covers 76-100.So I'd recommened the 93 over the 91.
Hamilton2
Sorry. Change the numbers to 75 and 77.
August 02, 2015 at 02:47AM View BBCode
They seriously never fiXed that?Sorry. Change the numbers to 75 and 77.
Frunobulax
Oi, a catcher with B+ arm? :)
Yeah, I am wondering about the CS% ratio. With a 100 catcher arm I wouldn't expect to be 15% behind other teams in my division in CS% and 15% ahead in other leagues, both with a season near the end. But maybe it's just random fluctuation.
Also, base stealing is one area where moneyballers can have fun, given that we have some detailed manager options there. If I assume an average run value of .25 for SB and -.50 for CS, and the opposing teams attempt 200 steals a season, then a difference between a 25% CS and 40%CS is +12.5 runs to -10 runs, or about 2 wins per season. So it's clearly wórth to do some tweaking there.
Regards, F.
August 02, 2015 at 07:38AM View BBCode
Originally posted by Hamilton2
They seriously never fiXed that?
Sorry. Change the numbers to 75 and 77.
Oi, a catcher with B+ arm? :)
Yeah, I am wondering about the CS% ratio. With a 100 catcher arm I wouldn't expect to be 15% behind other teams in my division in CS% and 15% ahead in other leagues, both with a season near the end. But maybe it's just random fluctuation.
Also, base stealing is one area where moneyballers can have fun, given that we have some detailed manager options there. If I assume an average run value of .25 for SB and -.50 for CS, and the opposing teams attempt 200 steals a season, then a difference between a 25% CS and 40%CS is +12.5 runs to -10 runs, or about 2 wins per season. So it's clearly wórth to do some tweaking there.
Regards, F.
WillyD
A thread Tim was so kind to find: [url]http://www.simdynasty.com/oldforum-viewthread.jsp?tid=34074[/url]
August 02, 2015 at 01:24PM View BBCode
Originally posted by Hamilton2
The speed of the baserunner. That's it.
A thread Tim was so kind to find: [url]http://www.simdynasty.com/oldforum-viewthread.jsp?tid=34074[/url]
Hamilton2
Also, none of those other factors (situation, inning, number of other base runners, score, etc.) have any bearing on the success of the attempt either. When a runner goes it is his speed vs. the catcher's arm. That's pretty much it.
August 02, 2015 at 02:18PM View BBCode
Willy, that wasn't the question. The arm rating of the pitcher influences whether a steal is attempted or not; not the actual success of the individual attempt. (Unless pick-offs count as CS?) Someone find a boxscore with a pick-off and see if it is added to the team CS%. I think that it is not.Also, none of those other factors (situation, inning, number of other base runners, score, etc.) have any bearing on the success of the attempt either. When a runner goes it is his speed vs. the catcher's arm. That's pretty much it.
WillyD
Baserunner Speed
Catcher Arm
Pitcher Arm
August 02, 2015 at 04:22PM View BBCode
Maybe not, but there are three skills that affect the running game, that all SimD owners should know. They are (in order of importance):Baserunner Speed
Catcher Arm
Pitcher Arm
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