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Frunobulax
the last thread about the importance of arm strenght in the outfield was really an eye-opener. For this, it is straightforward (though cumbersome) to verify the impact of arm strenght: For every single hit to an outfielder with a runner on 1st, check the number of times the runner advances to 3rd against the arm strength of the outfielder compared to the speed of the runner. If arm is significant (as it obviously is), there will be a strong correlation here.
Now, the natural question is how range affects defensive performance. One can assume that a high-range outfielder will field more balls, reducing the number of hits, or keep the number of extra-base hits down. However, I have no clue how one would verify the impact of range in the outfield - one would not only have to take the range values of all players into consideration, but also the stadium layout and the number of right-handed/left-handed hitters faced. Any ideas?
Assuming the players with the good gloves are moved to the IF, average outfielders drafted at OS18/OS19 reach defensive splits of A+/C+, A+/B-, A/B-, A/B, B/B+ and the like.
The question is basically: Should one prefer high-range or high-arm outfielders? If you can choose between a C+ arm, A+ range OF and A+ arm, C+ range RF, whom would you prefer?
For arm, one could quantify the effect (given some extensive research) - say a C+ arm RF will allow 80 more runners per season to advance from 1st to 3rd than an A+ arm RF. But if the A+ range RF can catch 40 more fly balls, preventing extra base hits, and maybe field another 40 hits for singles that would have been extra base hits with the C+ range RF, it would be clear that the A+ range RF is better than the A+ arm OF... But again, I have no idea how to estimate these values, even from watching a lot of games.
Regards, F.
[Edited on 6-4-2015 by Frunobulax]
Another Q for Veteran Owners Who Pay Attention to Defense
June 04, 2015 at 05:04AM View BBCode
Hi,the last thread about the importance of arm strenght in the outfield was really an eye-opener. For this, it is straightforward (though cumbersome) to verify the impact of arm strenght: For every single hit to an outfielder with a runner on 1st, check the number of times the runner advances to 3rd against the arm strength of the outfielder compared to the speed of the runner. If arm is significant (as it obviously is), there will be a strong correlation here.
Now, the natural question is how range affects defensive performance. One can assume that a high-range outfielder will field more balls, reducing the number of hits, or keep the number of extra-base hits down. However, I have no clue how one would verify the impact of range in the outfield - one would not only have to take the range values of all players into consideration, but also the stadium layout and the number of right-handed/left-handed hitters faced. Any ideas?
Assuming the players with the good gloves are moved to the IF, average outfielders drafted at OS18/OS19 reach defensive splits of A+/C+, A+/B-, A/B-, A/B, B/B+ and the like.
The question is basically: Should one prefer high-range or high-arm outfielders? If you can choose between a C+ arm, A+ range OF and A+ arm, C+ range RF, whom would you prefer?
For arm, one could quantify the effect (given some extensive research) - say a C+ arm RF will allow 80 more runners per season to advance from 1st to 3rd than an A+ arm RF. But if the A+ range RF can catch 40 more fly balls, preventing extra base hits, and maybe field another 40 hits for singles that would have been extra base hits with the C+ range RF, it would be clear that the A+ range RF is better than the A+ arm OF... But again, I have no idea how to estimate these values, even from watching a lot of games.
Regards, F.
[Edited on 6-4-2015 by Frunobulax]
max_fischer
June 04, 2015 at 06:56PM View BBCode
I thought range solely had an impact on errors and +/- plays.
tm4559
All this stuff , the hit to whatever player to whatever field, the error or the great play or the double by, all is pure narrative.
There is a matchup between pitcher and hitter. This numerical comparison leads to a dice roll that gives one of three results. Hit, out or walk. Everything else follows from that.
The hit can be single, double, triple, home run, according to the ratings and luck. Then the statistical stuff kicks in, determining where the ball "goes." Using distributions from real life, the hits and outs are allocated around the diamond. The range comes in then, better range will make fewer errors, take away hits, etc and worse range will do worse. All this is of course tempered by luck. The stealing and stretching and not stealing and not stretching and throwing and all that nonsense goes on, influenced by the speed and arms and luck and all that.
And before we go into one of these stupid show me the threads and let's have admin confirm it, I can only tell you Tyson discussed all this stuff out in the open when he contemplated a grid system where the action would have been, I suppose, more dynamic or whatever, but he decided and most everyone agreed, it wasn't worth the trouble.
All of the above is somewhat oversimplified but essentially true to my recollection and any errors that might be there are my own and I apologize for them, if they exist.
[Edited on 6-4-2015 by tm4559]
June 04, 2015 at 11:09PM View BBCode
That is all. It is tempting to think that a high range would lead to more plays. But the ball does not go anywhere. There is no movement of players,no movemement of a ball. This stuff was explained long ago, and many folks have come on board since.All this stuff , the hit to whatever player to whatever field, the error or the great play or the double by, all is pure narrative.
There is a matchup between pitcher and hitter. This numerical comparison leads to a dice roll that gives one of three results. Hit, out or walk. Everything else follows from that.
The hit can be single, double, triple, home run, according to the ratings and luck. Then the statistical stuff kicks in, determining where the ball "goes." Using distributions from real life, the hits and outs are allocated around the diamond. The range comes in then, better range will make fewer errors, take away hits, etc and worse range will do worse. All this is of course tempered by luck. The stealing and stretching and not stealing and not stretching and throwing and all that nonsense goes on, influenced by the speed and arms and luck and all that.
And before we go into one of these stupid show me the threads and let's have admin confirm it, I can only tell you Tyson discussed all this stuff out in the open when he contemplated a grid system where the action would have been, I suppose, more dynamic or whatever, but he decided and most everyone agreed, it wasn't worth the trouble.
All of the above is somewhat oversimplified but essentially true to my recollection and any errors that might be there are my own and I apologize for them, if they exist.
[Edited on 6-4-2015 by tm4559]
WillyD
After seeing the results loonatic posted, I'll take the A+ arm/C+ range over the inverse.
June 05, 2015 at 12:33AM View BBCode
Tim is correct. Range in the OF makes less fielding errors, and makes more plus plays (taking doubles away), and less minus plays (letting singles drop in, or double past them).After seeing the results loonatic posted, I'll take the A+ arm/C+ range over the inverse.
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