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Admin
Looking more closely at this, I think the overall base percentages are still too high for hitting events. There are too many singles, doubles, triples, and walks. I'm going to adjust the base percentages again and we'll look at another season of data.
I'm also going to slow the league down a bit, and also try to get some new owners in place. I think a better approach is to go with 12-15 games per day, then I can sim an entire season when I'm ready to take a look at the data. Starting now, we will sim 3 games at each of the following times: 5AM, 2PM, 7PM, 10PM.
I'm going to work on getting my team cleaned up and work on cleaning up the other teams in anticipation of getting some good data for the 2126 season. I will also be adjusting the percentages over the next day or two.
Tyson
Revisiting Batter/Pitcher and slowing down the league
April 17, 2012 at 09:23PM View BBCode
Ok, I'm looking into this again. I took a look at the top 8 players per team (by plate appearances) and compared to MLB data from 2011. The average OPS was almost a full .100 higher.Looking more closely at this, I think the overall base percentages are still too high for hitting events. There are too many singles, doubles, triples, and walks. I'm going to adjust the base percentages again and we'll look at another season of data.
I'm also going to slow the league down a bit, and also try to get some new owners in place. I think a better approach is to go with 12-15 games per day, then I can sim an entire season when I'm ready to take a look at the data. Starting now, we will sim 3 games at each of the following times: 5AM, 2PM, 7PM, 10PM.
I'm going to work on getting my team cleaned up and work on cleaning up the other teams in anticipation of getting some good data for the 2126 season. I will also be adjusting the percentages over the next day or two.
Tyson
Admin
Also, I just realized that my analysis of batter distribution can still be done by looking at the variance within each set of batters (MLB vs. SD), while disregarding the averages. I will post more on this after I've done some analysis.
Tyson
April 17, 2012 at 09:34PM View BBCode
Ok, percentages have been updated.Also, I just realized that my analysis of batter distribution can still be done by looking at the variance within each set of batters (MLB vs. SD), while disregarding the averages. I will post more on this after I've done some analysis.
Tyson
ballplayer3
You are doing the right thing by cleaning up all the teams. That needs to be done to really get a good idea of the stats. Right now, teams are padding their hitting stats when playing St. Louis; the lowest ERA on the SL team is 7.41.
Regards,
Mike
April 20, 2012 at 03:28PM View BBCode
Tyson,You are doing the right thing by cleaning up all the teams. That needs to be done to really get a good idea of the stats. Right now, teams are padding their hitting stats when playing St. Louis; the lowest ERA on the SL team is 7.41.
Regards,
Mike
Admin
I've come to the same realization. I've also come up with a much better approach for testing this. I'm going to copy some of the real leagues to beta, then just run seasons and analyze the data on my own. I'll keep you guys in the loop when I make changes.
I've changed things back a bit today to add more hitting to the sim. I'm going to run another season in one of my test leagues and see how it turns out and take a closer look at distribution.
Tyson
April 24, 2012 at 09:27PM View BBCode
Hi Mike,I've come to the same realization. I've also come up with a much better approach for testing this. I'm going to copy some of the real leagues to beta, then just run seasons and analyze the data on my own. I'll keep you guys in the loop when I make changes.
I've changed things back a bit today to add more hitting to the sim. I'm going to run another season in one of my test leagues and see how it turns out and take a closer look at distribution.
Tyson
tm4559
(just a question/suggestion really. i am sure you know what you want to do.)
April 25, 2012 at 09:31PM View BBCode
is it not possible, in your analysis, to simply drop all the games that include oakland and st louis, and anyalyze what remains?(just a question/suggestion really. i am sure you know what you want to do.)
Shaheen
April 26, 2012 at 11:07AM View BBCode
How much does the stadiums affect this? I've noticed many of the teams have a small ballpark and I don't know if that also is inflating some of the numbers.
tworoosters
April 26, 2012 at 02:56PM View BBCode
Wouldn't it be easier to clone a real league, a competitive one without the tank like the BHL perhaps, to provide the data ?
tm4559
April 26, 2012 at 05:10PM View BBCode
i am sure it would. if he cloned a tanksome league, he would get results no different from what we have now, although they might differ in degree. most leagues have three or four awful teams at any given time.
Admin
Tyson
April 26, 2012 at 07:55PM View BBCode
Cloning leagues is the way to go, I've done two leagues so far and it makes it easy to collect data. I can run a 162 game season in 20 minutes, then dive into the data. The variances are still off, which I'm looking at today - for instance, the percentage of singles for a given batter vary more in SD than they do in MLB.Tyson
tworoosters
I realize that one of the fundamental tenets of the Sim is that power trumps contact but Kreevich's contact numbers are embarrassing yet his stats are very good.
April 26, 2012 at 09:28PM View BBCode
Looking very briefly at beta it seems the high power/low contact guys are still too valuable, a guy like [url=http://beta.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?playername=nobody&mode=stats&id=69772]Kreevich[/url], for example shouldn't have a career OPS over .900 while someone like [url=http://beta.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?playername=nobody&mode=stats&id=69601]Maglie[/url] struggles to top .800.I realize that one of the fundamental tenets of the Sim is that power trumps contact but Kreevich's contact numbers are embarrassing yet his stats are very good.
Hamilton2
April 28, 2012 at 10:15PM View BBCode
I can take a team if it helps. I'm not around every day, but more often than not, and it would be a lot easier to try to manage a team in the long term beta than the salary disaster.
Hamilton2
April 28, 2012 at 10:15PM View BBCode
(Not saying that the salary system is a disaster, just my beta team.)
Admin
I've found that pitchers in Sim Dynasty don't hit with enough power compared to their MLB equivalents. For example, in MLB 0.47% of pitcher plate appearances result in a HR. For the league I just ran, we didn't have a single pitcher HR. I'm not sure if I'll adjust that or not, or how I would, but it is important to throw out those results when looking at data.
Tyson
April 30, 2012 at 09:15PM View BBCode
I took a pretty basic SD league and ran a season, compared to data from MLB in 2011. I only looked at non-pitchers. Things look too hitter-friendly still. I've just made some adjustments.I've found that pitchers in Sim Dynasty don't hit with enough power compared to their MLB equivalents. For example, in MLB 0.47% of pitcher plate appearances result in a HR. For the league I just ran, we didn't have a single pitcher HR. I'm not sure if I'll adjust that or not, or how I would, but it is important to throw out those results when looking at data.
Tyson
tworoosters
I mean the DH skews both offensive and pitching numbers and no DH in Sim means AL numbers are pretty much irrelevant .
April 30, 2012 at 10:33PM View BBCode
Shouldn't you only use National League MLB data ?I mean the DH skews both offensive and pitching numbers and no DH in Sim means AL numbers are pretty much irrelevant .
Admin
I'm making my first tweaks to try to get variance correct. I'm going to run a season of data now and see what transpires. It could be ugly, we shall see.
Tyson
May 07, 2012 at 10:16PM View BBCode
Ideally I'd do that, but with the dataset I'm working with there isn't a real easy way to eliminate it and I don't know how much the DH matters. But maybe I will revisit this when I get closer.I'm making my first tweaks to try to get variance correct. I'm going to run a season of data now and see what transpires. It could be ugly, we shall see.
Tyson
lvnwrth
May 08, 2012 at 04:34AM View BBCode
I've noticed that K's for the high velocity guys have jumped back up.
lvnwrth
:puzzled::puzzled::puzzled:
June 10, 2012 at 11:46PM View BBCode
What's happening? I've been a long-time proponent of "red" velocity pitchers getting more K's, but now there are NINE teams whose pitchings staffs are averaging better than 1 K/IP. And it's happening in a context when power seems to be down, yet scoring is up.:puzzled::puzzled::puzzled:
tm4559
(i guess its too many. maybe it isn't? maybe it is?)
June 11, 2012 at 06:18PM View BBCode
it isn't just the high velocity things really (although they have a lot) its all of them, blue/red pitchers got too many too.(i guess its too many. maybe it isn't? maybe it is?)
tworoosters
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/oldforum-viewthread.jsp?tid=335690]It is !![/url], trust me it is.
The funny thing is that the offensive numbers aren't down very much, it;'s just that strikeouts have gone berserk .
June 12, 2012 at 09:22PM View BBCode
Originally posted by tm4559
(i guess its too many. maybe it isn't? maybe it is?)
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/oldforum-viewthread.jsp?tid=335690]It is !![/url], trust me it is.
The funny thing is that the offensive numbers aren't down very much, it;'s just that strikeouts have gone berserk .
tm4559
June 12, 2012 at 10:33PM View BBCode
lolz. its way too many. its kind of hard to see where they're falling on the hitters. there are so many of them. i guess all of them have many more than they usually do, like, the baseline is just raised right on up. since the offensive numbers aren't down much (if any) he must just be getting strikeouts instead of other kinds of outs, no? something that should be easily tweakable.
Admin
I will let you all know when I'm ready to proclaim it complete.
Tyson
June 15, 2012 at 09:21PM View BBCode
I've been tinkering with the engine roughly twice an hour during the day for the last 3 weeks, so you're bound to see some odd things or some odd games.I will let you all know when I'm ready to proclaim it complete.
Tyson
tm4559
July 08, 2012 at 03:23PM View BBCode
um. every team has more strikeouts by the pitchers than innings pitched. in real baseball, does any team's pitching staff strike the opponents out at that rate?
lvnwrth
Correspondingly, or so it seems, low contact-high power guys now seem to be struggling to hit.
July 08, 2012 at 06:28PM View BBCode
I noticed they went down for a while, but this season they've really gone through the roof.Correspondingly, or so it seems, low contact-high power guys now seem to be struggling to hit.