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Admin
Here is what I've done so far:
- Infield singles are broken out from regular singles. Speed is no longer a factor for regular singles or regular doubles.
- I've taken a percentage of singles and doubles and placed those into a new category that I call stretchable. Whether a batter stretches a single into a double will be dependent mostly on his speed but power factors in too. On the defensive side, it will depend mostly on the outfielder's arm, but also a bit on his range as well. You'll notice these in the boxscore as "legs out a double" or "hits a long single".
- I've rewritten the function for determining whether baserunners take an extra base on hits/errors. Everything will be treated the same (assuming my code isn't buggy). Except for a few cases.... on an error, runners won't be able to take an extra base unless there are 2 outs (since presumably they will be holding to see what happens). Runners will not be able to score from 1st on a legged out double.
- This code uses the new ratios for batter/pitcher influence on events. This means batters will have more influence on most of the outcomes. The dominant pitcher code is in effect though, so a very good pitcher will have more control over the outcomes than a weak pitcher.
I'm going to run some games in the salary league and look at the percentages in the logs to see how they match up.
The next steps will be:
- Stretching Doubles into Triples
- Revisit Strikeout numbers
- Add "kills" for stretching singles into doubles, and doubles into triples
- Add kills for baserunners taking an extra base on a hit.
- Add manager preferences so you can set how aggressive you want to be in these situations.
- I may look to revisit the plus/minus code too.
Please help me out by reading the boxscores and looking for problems.
Thanks!
Tyson
[Edited on 12-13-2011 by Admin]
Batter/Pitcher Changes and Stretching
October 19, 2011 at 08:27PM View BBCode
I've turned on the new system for the Salary League. I've left the regular beta league alone for the timebeing so we can make sure these changes don't impact that league.Here is what I've done so far:
- Infield singles are broken out from regular singles. Speed is no longer a factor for regular singles or regular doubles.
- I've taken a percentage of singles and doubles and placed those into a new category that I call stretchable. Whether a batter stretches a single into a double will be dependent mostly on his speed but power factors in too. On the defensive side, it will depend mostly on the outfielder's arm, but also a bit on his range as well. You'll notice these in the boxscore as "legs out a double" or "hits a long single".
- I've rewritten the function for determining whether baserunners take an extra base on hits/errors. Everything will be treated the same (assuming my code isn't buggy). Except for a few cases.... on an error, runners won't be able to take an extra base unless there are 2 outs (since presumably they will be holding to see what happens). Runners will not be able to score from 1st on a legged out double.
- This code uses the new ratios for batter/pitcher influence on events. This means batters will have more influence on most of the outcomes. The dominant pitcher code is in effect though, so a very good pitcher will have more control over the outcomes than a weak pitcher.
I'm going to run some games in the salary league and look at the percentages in the logs to see how they match up.
The next steps will be:
- Stretching Doubles into Triples
- Revisit Strikeout numbers
- Add "kills" for stretching singles into doubles, and doubles into triples
- Add kills for baserunners taking an extra base on a hit.
- Add manager preferences so you can set how aggressive you want to be in these situations.
- I may look to revisit the plus/minus code too.
Please help me out by reading the boxscores and looking for problems.
Thanks!
Tyson
[Edited on 12-13-2011 by Admin]
Admin
Tyson
October 19, 2011 at 08:34PM View BBCode
I'm going to turn off the "higher batter influence" thing for the moment so we can test one thing at a time.Tyson
Admin
I'm starting to think about and work on "kills".
Tyson
October 20, 2011 at 09:32PM View BBCode
Ok, I've turned back on the higher batter influence thing, as well as the pitcher dominance factor. I've also added in stretchable doubles.I'm starting to think about and work on "kills".
Tyson
Admin
Tyson
October 24, 2011 at 09:57PM View BBCode
Ok, I've added kills on players trying to stretch singles into doubles, and doubles into triples. There isn't a way for you to set the aggressiveness yet, but I've left a place in the code to take that into account. Defender Arm, Range, and runner speed factor into whether a guy is out stretching.Tyson
tworoosters
Inning: 2 Texas
Brian Faszholz is out trying to stretch a double into a triple, thrown out by the center fielder.
Yeah Baby !!!!!!!
I can't wait for kills at home plate, that will really be "da bidness" .
October 25, 2011 at 02:44AM View BBCode
Game #158 ASL:Inning: 2 Texas
Brian Faszholz is out trying to stretch a double into a triple, thrown out by the center fielder.
Yeah Baby !!!!!!!
I can't wait for kills at home plate, that will really be "da bidness" .
Admin
I looked at data in MLB from 1995 to 2008. Here's what I found:
Single with runner on 2nd (not including bunt or infield hits)
Runner attempted to score 69% of the time
Out of those attempts, he was thrown out 4.4% of the time.
Single with runner on 1st, but not 2nd
Runner attempted to go to 3rd 30% of the time
Out of those attempts, he was thrown out 2.2% of the time.
So they don't try as often, but are more successful when they do try. This makes sense, you don't want to make the 1st or 3rd out at 3rd base and there is less incentive to try to get to 3rd than score an actual run.
Double with runner on 1st
Runners attempted to score 45% of the time
Out of those attempts, 6.4% were thrown out.
So they try less often than singles with a guy on 2nd, but are less successful. This might be due to doubles coming in a wider variety of shapes and sizes than non-infield singles. There's also probably a sabermetric spin on this about whether managers are too aggressive/timid in these situations.
I'll update you when I've put this data to use.
Tyson
October 27, 2011 at 10:25PM View BBCode
Ok, I'm revisiting stretching by baserunners so I can add kills to that, and use the same functions I wrote for runners.I looked at data in MLB from 1995 to 2008. Here's what I found:
Single with runner on 2nd (not including bunt or infield hits)
Runner attempted to score 69% of the time
Out of those attempts, he was thrown out 4.4% of the time.
Single with runner on 1st, but not 2nd
Runner attempted to go to 3rd 30% of the time
Out of those attempts, he was thrown out 2.2% of the time.
So they don't try as often, but are more successful when they do try. This makes sense, you don't want to make the 1st or 3rd out at 3rd base and there is less incentive to try to get to 3rd than score an actual run.
Double with runner on 1st
Runners attempted to score 45% of the time
Out of those attempts, 6.4% were thrown out.
So they try less often than singles with a guy on 2nd, but are less successful. This might be due to doubles coming in a wider variety of shapes and sizes than non-infield singles. There's also probably a sabermetric spin on this about whether managers are too aggressive/timid in these situations.
I'll update you when I've put this data to use.
Tyson
Admin
The next step will be to add a manager preference section for stretching.
Tyson
October 31, 2011 at 09:57PM View BBCode
Ok, I've updated the code to use these percentages. I haven't thoroughly tested the percentages yet, but the code is working.The next step will be to add a manager preference section for stretching.
Tyson
tm4559
November 30, 2011 at 02:56PM View BBCode
can we stop with this injury code? it has been tested. it has been proved to be absolutely annoying. if that was what we were going for, it is just the most smashing of sucesses. it is not possible we can prove it to be more profoundly annoying.
Admin
I haven't hooked these up to the game code yet, I'll be working on that next.
I didn't put anything in for baserunner speed or outfielder arm - those are already taken into account by the code automatically. You're basically in charge of telling Abe whether to try for the extra base in the borderline cases.
I also need to set these up in the Simple manager prefs, and put it into the copy manager prefs code too.
Let me know if you have any feedback.
Tyson
December 07, 2011 at 09:27PM View BBCode
I've added manager prefs for stretching. They are on the same page as the stealing prefs, I've changed the name of this page to baserunning.I haven't hooked these up to the game code yet, I'll be working on that next.
I didn't put anything in for baserunner speed or outfielder arm - those are already taken into account by the code automatically. You're basically in charge of telling Abe whether to try for the extra base in the borderline cases.
I also need to set these up in the Simple manager prefs, and put it into the copy manager prefs code too.
Let me know if you have any feedback.
Tyson
Toadfish
December 07, 2011 at 10:11PM View BBCode
do you need any more testers Tyson? I would be willing to take part if there are any spots available.
tworoosters
The first choice is: If its my team's last at bat:
1) Only stretch if the runner is the tying run
2) do nothing different
#1 should read "only steal if the runner is the tying run"
Also I'd likethat option to be tying or winning run
December 08, 2011 at 01:25AM View BBCode
The wording under the "Stealing/Stop Sign" area is wrong.The first choice is: If its my team's last at bat:
1) Only stretch if the runner is the tying run
2) do nothing different
#1 should read "only steal if the runner is the tying run"
Also I'd likethat option to be tying or winning run
Shaheen
Stop Sign
If its <- should be it's
For the pull-down, the last option is Never Steal, should be Never Stretch. Looks like it was cut/paste from the Stealing section.
How is the code going to handle multiple runners? If it is a person on 1st and there is a hit to the outfield. The runner from second could stretch to third. Is running on first going to go to second if the throw is to third? Will Abe let the runner go to third and have the defense throw the ball to second to keep a double play in tack?
The same thing will happen with someone stretching for home and the defense may not want to throw the ball home if the other runners will get a base. There is a lot of options here that can take place and I'm just wondering what the ideas were on the implementation.
(Guess that is from my 20+ years of playing and coaching baseball and my 15+ years of software engineering)
December 08, 2011 at 03:38PM View BBCode
Originally posted by Admin
I've added manager prefs for stretching. They are on the same page as the stealing prefs, I've changed the name of this page to baserunning.
I haven't hooked these up to the game code yet, I'll be working on that next.
I didn't put anything in for baserunner speed or outfielder arm - those are already taken into account by the code automatically. You're basically in charge of telling Abe whether to try for the extra base in the borderline cases.
I also need to set these up in the Simple manager prefs, and put it into the copy manager prefs code too.
Let me know if you have any feedback.
Tyson
Stop Sign
If its <- should be it's
For the pull-down, the last option is Never Steal, should be Never Stretch. Looks like it was cut/paste from the Stealing section.
How is the code going to handle multiple runners? If it is a person on 1st and there is a hit to the outfield. The runner from second could stretch to third. Is running on first going to go to second if the throw is to third? Will Abe let the runner go to third and have the defense throw the ball to second to keep a double play in tack?
The same thing will happen with someone stretching for home and the defense may not want to throw the ball home if the other runners will get a base. There is a lot of options here that can take place and I'm just wondering what the ideas were on the implementation.
(Guess that is from my 20+ years of playing and coaching baseball and my 15+ years of software engineering)
Admin
I still need to work out some of the implementation. Take a look at the boxscores and let me know where you find things that don't look right.
Tyson
December 12, 2011 at 10:29PM View BBCode
Thanks for the corrections on the spelling. I think I have it right now.I still need to work out some of the implementation. Take a look at the boxscores and let me know where you find things that don't look right.
Tyson
Admin
Tyson
December 13, 2011 at 10:58PM View BBCode
Ok, I've taken a stab at linking this preference page up with the game code. Please change your prefs around and let me know what you find. I'll be running games this week and looking at the game logs to see how the calculations are working out behind the scenes.Tyson
tworoosters
This is cool though:
Ike White singles.
Al Orengo walks.
Mike Moore strikes out.
Axel Mussina singles.
Ike White scores.
Al Orengo is thrown out at third by the right fielder.
Though I think for emphasis it could read "Al Orengo is thrown out trying to advance to third by the right fielder" which would more clearly indicate the stretching consequence.
December 14, 2011 at 01:45AM View BBCode
So are the "legs out" doubles stretches ? If so I think that "stretches out" would be better terminology.This is cool though:
Ike White singles.
Al Orengo walks.
Mike Moore strikes out.
Axel Mussina singles.
Ike White scores.
Al Orengo is thrown out at third by the right fielder.
Though I think for emphasis it could read "Al Orengo is thrown out trying to advance to third by the right fielder" which would more clearly indicate the stretching consequence.
Admin
I was not sure what to do in case of a runner on 1st with a double. If he's thrown out at the plate, should the guy that hit the double automatically get 3rd?
Tyson
December 16, 2011 at 05:41PM View BBCode
I think this is now ready to go. I put in one final change today where if you have runners on 1st and 2nd and the guy at 2nd gets thrown out at the plate, the runner at 1st will automatically advance to 3rd.I was not sure what to do in case of a runner on 1st with a double. If he's thrown out at the plate, should the guy that hit the double automatically get 3rd?
Tyson
tworoosters
I would say not automatically, it's a very different play than with runners already on base who have leadoffs and running starts.
December 16, 2011 at 06:15PM View BBCode
Originally posted by Admin
I was not sure what to do in case of a runner on 1st with a double. If he's thrown out at the plate, should the guy that hit the double automatically get 3rd?
Tyson
I would say not automatically, it's a very different play than with runners already on base who have leadoffs and running starts.
tworoosters
I don't recall seeing the "long" adjective previously.
December 20, 2011 at 07:12PM View BBCode
So does this Earl Chelini hits a long single to the left fielder. indicate a hit which could have been stretched but wasn't ?I don't recall seeing the "long" adjective previously.
Admin
Tyson
December 20, 2011 at 11:38PM View BBCode
Long single means it was stretchable, but wasn't stretched.Tyson
lvnwrth
Did the changes do all this, or has something else changed?
December 21, 2011 at 06:16AM View BBCode
I'm not sure if anything besides stretching and taking extra bases has changed, but the league stats have sure changed. There are nine teams batting over .300 as teams, and a tenth at .299. Meanwhile, a tidy 4.91 staff ERA leads the league.Did the changes do all this, or has something else changed?
tm4559
December 21, 2011 at 02:54PM View BBCode
its going to be like that i believe lvnwrth. its new code for the batter-pitcher matchup. that is my understanding anyway.
Admin
Tyson
December 21, 2011 at 04:43PM View BBCode
It is the new batter-pitcher matchup stuff. We may have some tweaking to do. Let's see how things look after a season or two.Tyson
tm4559
(last game at 9:48? did it hang up a little?)
December 21, 2011 at 05:30PM View BBCode
awesome.(last game at 9:48? did it hang up a little?)
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