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tworoosters
In the NFL the average receiving % for WRs has been pretty constant around 58% for the past few years but WRs in the sim are way over that and the top ones are catching 100+ balls a year at rates well over 70%.
Looking at ratings there are 82 WRs with red letter "catch" ability and 27 at 90 or better .
Passes caught percentage
October 03, 2011 at 04:17PM View BBCode
Just looked at receiving totals, in the GFL the average % caught last season was 70.8% which is too high but more alarming is the % by WRs.In the NFL the average receiving % for WRs has been pretty constant around 58% for the past few years but WRs in the sim are way over that and the top ones are catching 100+ balls a year at rates well over 70%.
Looking at ratings there are 82 WRs with red letter "catch" ability and 27 at 90 or better .
redcped
Is it safe to assume that the numbers were closer to 58% in the first few years and then started shooting up when the passing numbers skyrocketed?
October 03, 2011 at 04:24PM View BBCode
Have you tracked this year over year?Is it safe to assume that the numbers were closer to 58% in the first few years and then started shooting up when the passing numbers skyrocketed?
Admin
My guess would be that tired WR's can still perform too well, which means that probably too much of the equation is on the QB's side rather than the receiver's side.
--Chris
October 03, 2011 at 05:02PM View BBCode
Originally posted by tworoosters
In the NFL the average receiving % for WRs has been pretty constant around 58% for the past few years but WRs in the sim are way over that and the top ones are catching 100+ balls a year at rates well over 70%.
My guess would be that tired WR's can still perform too well, which means that probably too much of the equation is on the QB's side rather than the receiver's side.
--Chris
tworoosters
Unfortunately the receiving stats don't easily break out WR vs. RB and TE but the overall numbers have been rising from a probably too low 58% overall to a much too high 70.1% in the past year.
The fatigue factor certainly seems to come into play plus the low injury rates for WRs. My top two WRs last year combined to catch 250 of 323 passes (77.4%) without any injury, add in 93 of 113 to my TE and you have three players combining to catch 78.7 of the passes thrown their way.
Additionally despite higher than "par" fatigue sub levels, out at 70% return at 85%, these three had 72.6% of all passes directed their way which is way too high again.
[Edited on 10-3-2011 by tworoosters]
October 03, 2011 at 05:48PM View BBCode
Originally posted by redcped
Have you tracked this year over year?
Is it safe to assume that the numbers were closer to 58% in the first few years and then started shooting up when the passing numbers skyrocketed?
Unfortunately the receiving stats don't easily break out WR vs. RB and TE but the overall numbers have been rising from a probably too low 58% overall to a much too high 70.1% in the past year.
The fatigue factor certainly seems to come into play plus the low injury rates for WRs. My top two WRs last year combined to catch 250 of 323 passes (77.4%) without any injury, add in 93 of 113 to my TE and you have three players combining to catch 78.7 of the passes thrown their way.
Additionally despite higher than "par" fatigue sub levels, out at 70% return at 85%, these three had 72.6% of all passes directed their way which is way too high again.
[Edited on 10-3-2011 by tworoosters]
Goldambre
That being said, this is great information. Thanks for doing it.
October 04, 2011 at 05:43AM View BBCode
While this is symptomatic of our current offensive juggernaut, I am not sure there should be a lot of corrective work until there are more defensive plays. Adding a 3-4 or a Dime may be the fix.That being said, this is great information. Thanks for doing it.
Admin
My concern here is that receivers should be getting conditioning hits and thus being tired, yet they are still catching a lot of balls. This would imply that receiver skill is much less important than quarterback skill, meaning with a good quarterback any receiver can be successful, which shouldn't be the case.
--Chris
October 04, 2011 at 08:27AM View BBCode
Originally posted by Goldambre
While this is symptomatic of our current offensive juggernaut, I am not sure there should be a lot of corrective work until there are more defensive plays. Adding a 3-4 or a Dime may be the fix.
That being said, this is great information. Thanks for doing it.
My concern here is that receivers should be getting conditioning hits and thus being tired, yet they are still catching a lot of balls. This would imply that receiver skill is much less important than quarterback skill, meaning with a good quarterback any receiver can be successful, which shouldn't be the case.
--Chris
Goldambre
I am not questioning the need to correct the problem of receivers tiring. No matter what other changes are added, they should flag over time. I was merely concerned about making receiver specific skill changes that may have an impact down the road.
As a side note, I believe that NFL history is full of examples of good quarterbacks making adequate receivers appear above average. Look at the Manning-less Colts for a current example.
October 04, 2011 at 03:19PM View BBCode
Originally posted by Admin
My concern here is that receivers should be getting conditioning hits and thus being tired, yet they are still catching a lot of balls. This would imply that receiver skill is much less important than quarterback skill, meaning with a good quarterback any receiver can be successful, which shouldn't be the case.
--Chris
I am not questioning the need to correct the problem of receivers tiring. No matter what other changes are added, they should flag over time. I was merely concerned about making receiver specific skill changes that may have an impact down the road.
As a side note, I believe that NFL history is full of examples of good quarterbacks making adequate receivers appear above average. Look at the Manning-less Colts for a current example.
redcped
This is a good point, but we have to ask whether Willie Spooge is a Manning, or whether he is not really better than the other top QBs.
And since we have seen AZ achieve phenomenal results from less skilled receivers, we should be wondering why that is the case.
I expected to get great results from my WR, who were all higher rated than Arizona's. But I also had a higher-rated QB.
There were 7 QBs with 100 accuracy, and Spooge had the highest power of those at 95. Most of the others had higher Execution, however.
And I think we can all agree that Flash did not have exceptional receiving skills yet still put up remarkable numbers:
http://footballbeta.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=126935
October 04, 2011 at 05:01PM View BBCode
Originally posted by Goldambre
Originally posted by Admin
My concern here is that receivers should be getting conditioning hits and thus being tired, yet they are still catching a lot of balls. This would imply that receiver skill is much less important than quarterback skill, meaning with a good quarterback any receiver can be successful, which shouldn't be the case.
--Chris
I am not questioning the need to correct the problem of receivers tiring. No matter what other changes are added, they should flag over time. I was merely concerned about making receiver specific skill changes that may have an impact down the road.
As a side note, I believe that NFL history is full of examples of good quarterbacks making adequate receivers appear above average. Look at the Manning-less Colts for a current example.
This is a good point, but we have to ask whether Willie Spooge is a Manning, or whether he is not really better than the other top QBs.
And since we have seen AZ achieve phenomenal results from less skilled receivers, we should be wondering why that is the case.
I expected to get great results from my WR, who were all higher rated than Arizona's. But I also had a higher-rated QB.
There were 7 QBs with 100 accuracy, and Spooge had the highest power of those at 95. Most of the others had higher Execution, however.
And I think we can all agree that Flash did not have exceptional receiving skills yet still put up remarkable numbers:
http://footballbeta.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=126935
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