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Deterioration curves aren't by position (except RB), they are by skill.
There are two separate issues: A player gets a number of decline chances based on his age, so the two issues are 1) which skills to those chances land on and 2) how likely is that skill to actually decline.
Age 24: 45 decline chances
Age 25: 49 decline chances
Age 26: 54 decline chances
Age 27: 59 decline chances
Age 28: 64 decline chances
Age 29: 69 decline chances
Age 30: 74 decline chances
Age 31: 79 decline chances
Age 32: 85 decline chances
Age 33: 90 decline chances
Age 34: 96 decline chances
Age 35: 102 decline chances
Age 36: 108 decline chances
Age 37: 114 decline chances
Age 38: 120 decline chances
Age 39: 126 decline chances
Age 40: 132 decline chances
For most skills, the chances of a decline being "successful" are:
Under age 28: 1.0%
Age 28: 1.5%
Age 29: 2.5%
Age 30: 7.5%
Age 31: 12.0%
Age 32: 25.0%
Age 33: 35.0%
Age 34: 50.0%
Age 35: 67.5%
Age 36: 80.0%
Over age 36: 90%
RB's are a bit different, their skills deteriorate faster because of the wear and tear they get:
Under age 26: 1.0%
Age 26: 3.0%
Age 27: 5.0%
Age 28: 7.5%
Age 29: 12.5%
Age 30: 37.5%
Age 31: 60.0%
Over age 31 : 90.0%
As far as which skills are more likely to be selected, let's consider the average chance of a skill to be selected to be 100% (i.e "normal"). Skills that are different are:
Throw Acc: 40%
Throw Power: 80%
Carrying: 120% (220% for RB's over 25)
Break tackle: 110%
Jumping: 120%
Speed: 160% (310% for RB's over 25)
Kick power: 120%
Kick accuracy: 75%
Agility: 130% (250% for RB's over 25)
Catching: 80%
Pass cover: 90%
Kck return: 80%
So it's these distributions that cause various player roles to have longer or shorter careers.
Declines are a percentage of the total score ranging from .5% to 2.5%. Because of this, very high scores will fall off faster. The minimum decline is a half a point; the maximum is 2.5 points. (Thus, a player with a score of 50 who gets lucky and catches the minimum decline of .5% should fall .25 points but as there is a minimum .5 point drop he goes to 49.5.
Note that Attitude and Potential have no effect on declines.
Finally, there is one very important point: All of these ages are average ages. Some players age or decline as if they were a year or two older or younger, and a handful of players like they are two years younger or older. "Improve age" and "Decline age" are set separately for each player, causing some players to have more compressed careers and some to have more elongated careers. Right now, the only way to tell if your players have shorter or longer career curves is to observe their improvement and decline rates.
--Chris
About declines
August 03, 2011 at 04:41AM View BBCode
lanceriesen posted a question about declines in another thread, but the answer is important enough that it merits its own thread.Originally posted by lancereisen
Is the deterioration curve for WR, CB and QB less/slower and maybe start at a later age?
Deterioration curves aren't by position (except RB), they are by skill.
There are two separate issues: A player gets a number of decline chances based on his age, so the two issues are 1) which skills to those chances land on and 2) how likely is that skill to actually decline.
Age 24: 45 decline chances
Age 25: 49 decline chances
Age 26: 54 decline chances
Age 27: 59 decline chances
Age 28: 64 decline chances
Age 29: 69 decline chances
Age 30: 74 decline chances
Age 31: 79 decline chances
Age 32: 85 decline chances
Age 33: 90 decline chances
Age 34: 96 decline chances
Age 35: 102 decline chances
Age 36: 108 decline chances
Age 37: 114 decline chances
Age 38: 120 decline chances
Age 39: 126 decline chances
Age 40: 132 decline chances
For most skills, the chances of a decline being "successful" are:
Under age 28: 1.0%
Age 28: 1.5%
Age 29: 2.5%
Age 30: 7.5%
Age 31: 12.0%
Age 32: 25.0%
Age 33: 35.0%
Age 34: 50.0%
Age 35: 67.5%
Age 36: 80.0%
Over age 36: 90%
RB's are a bit different, their skills deteriorate faster because of the wear and tear they get:
Under age 26: 1.0%
Age 26: 3.0%
Age 27: 5.0%
Age 28: 7.5%
Age 29: 12.5%
Age 30: 37.5%
Age 31: 60.0%
Over age 31 : 90.0%
As far as which skills are more likely to be selected, let's consider the average chance of a skill to be selected to be 100% (i.e "normal"). Skills that are different are:
Throw Acc: 40%
Throw Power: 80%
Carrying: 120% (220% for RB's over 25)
Break tackle: 110%
Jumping: 120%
Speed: 160% (310% for RB's over 25)
Kick power: 120%
Kick accuracy: 75%
Agility: 130% (250% for RB's over 25)
Catching: 80%
Pass cover: 90%
Kck return: 80%
So it's these distributions that cause various player roles to have longer or shorter careers.
Declines are a percentage of the total score ranging from .5% to 2.5%. Because of this, very high scores will fall off faster. The minimum decline is a half a point; the maximum is 2.5 points. (Thus, a player with a score of 50 who gets lucky and catches the minimum decline of .5% should fall .25 points but as there is a minimum .5 point drop he goes to 49.5.
Note that Attitude and Potential have no effect on declines.
Finally, there is one very important point: All of these ages are average ages. Some players age or decline as if they were a year or two older or younger, and a handful of players like they are two years younger or older. "Improve age" and "Decline age" are set separately for each player, causing some players to have more compressed careers and some to have more elongated careers. Right now, the only way to tell if your players have shorter or longer career curves is to observe their improvement and decline rates.
--Chris
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