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Kicking

June 05, 2011 at 04:40PM View BBCode

The new field goal/PAT code is in. Incidences of missed PAT's or short field goals should drop by quite a bit.

--Chris
Fulla

June 05, 2011 at 05:20PM View BBCode

Was the code in before the first preseason game? Cuz LA blocked a PAT in the Oakland game.
Admin

June 05, 2011 at 05:29PM View BBCode

For example, a kicker with 50 power, 50 accuracy and 50 execution is now 99.7% likely to make an extra point with no wind. In fact, running a test with 100,000 kicks, he is 100% on extra points with perfect holds, 99.99% with good holds (missed 2 of 70,768 test kicks), 99.63% on poor holds (missed 39 of 10,675) and 96.0% with bad holds (missed 181 of 4,587). Since few teams will field a kicker with less than 50 accuracy, a miss should now only occur on a block, or rarely on poor or bad holds, a windy day, or an out of position kicker.

This same (poor) kicker now gets:

77.5% from the 20
55.4% from the 30
15.7% from the 40

With the old code, he was:

69.1% from the 20
47.8% from the 30
12.5% from the 40

A more reasonable kicker, with 75 power, 75 accuracy, and 50 execution, gets:

89.4% from the 20
69.5% from the 30
38.5% from the 40
8.7% from the 50


With the old code, he was:

84.4% from the 20
65.3% from the 30
34.6% from the 40
7.5% from the 50

Good kickers with 85 or above accuracy aren't as affected by this change; the lower the Accuracy, the more likely the changes will have an effect (basically reducing the difference between the best and the worst kickers.

Kickers with less than 40 Execution or kicking out of position will get about 66% of the improvements seen here.

--Chris
Admin

June 05, 2011 at 05:38PM View BBCode

Originally posted by Fulla
Was the code in before the first preseason game? Cuz LA blocked a PAT in the Oakland game.


These changes mainly affect missed kicks due to inaccuracy. There is actually a slight chance for an increase in blocked kicks on windy days with this code but not much (maybe 1 or 2 more per season leaguewide) due to the lower target angle when kicking into or across wind.

--Chris

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