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Hamilton2
What gives?
March 15, 2011 at 09:29PM View BBCode
My play calling on 1st down is not doing what I want it to do. In the week 7 game against OAK, we called 12 runs and 11 passes on 1st down. My settings are put to call runs on 80% of 1st down plays.
Admin
--Chris
March 15, 2011 at 09:40PM View BBCode
That means 6 pass plays went the opposite direction of probability. Unusual, but if it is restricted to week 7 I'm goiing to call "Small sample size." Unfortunately, my detailed logs of the playcalling logic only go back one full game. There may be a way to extract the data from the main database though; I'll see if I can pull some numbers.--Chris
Hamilton2
March 15, 2011 at 09:45PM View BBCode
It's fine. I'm just venting because I should have beaten OAK but we kept passing with a 6-3 lead and they keyed off of it 4 times when it was highly improbable that we would even be calling that play to begin with. 2 4th quarter INT's led to my 13-6 loss.
tworoosters
March 15, 2011 at 09:49PM View BBCode
I can't figure out why my defense didn't "key in" on the fact that Washington ran the ball every time on 1st down but at least we still won.
Admin
Keying only works on pass plays because there isn't enough variety in run options and because the risk/reward ratio of runs doesn't leave them open to abuse.
--Chris
March 15, 2011 at 09:54PM View BBCode
Originally posted by tworoosters
I can't figure out why my defense didn't "key in" on the fact that Washington ran the ball every time on 1st down but at least we still won.
Keying only works on pass plays because there isn't enough variety in run options and because the risk/reward ratio of runs doesn't leave them open to abuse.
--Chris
Admin
That is extremely odd and unlikely unless there is a bug in the system
Looking at all games this season, including preseason, you ran 92 runs and 62 passes on 1st down at home and 99 runs vs. 91 passes on 1st down on the road. That's only 55% runs, if my math is right. And the multiple attempts to select a play in keying situations should have virtually assured a run.
--Chris
March 15, 2011 at 09:58PM View BBCode
Originally posted by Hamilton2
It's fine. I'm just venting because I should have beaten OAK but we kept passing with a 6-3 lead and they keyed off of it 4 times when it was highly improbable that we would even be calling that play to begin with. 2 4th quarter INT's led to my 13-6 loss.
That is extremely odd and unlikely unless there is a bug in the system
Looking at all games this season, including preseason, you ran 92 runs and 62 passes on 1st down at home and 99 runs vs. 91 passes on 1st down on the road. That's only 55% runs, if my math is right. And the multiple attempts to select a play in keying situations should have virtually assured a run.
--Chris
Hamilton2
I've messed with my setting between games. The 80% running on first down thing should have only applied to the last 2 games, 55% on the year is probably about right.
March 15, 2011 at 10:00PM View BBCode
The keyed plays occured on downs other than 1st down, but the 1st down passes in the 4th quarter definitely impacted the play count and frequency toward "keying."I've messed with my setting between games. The 80% running on first down thing should have only applied to the last 2 games, 55% on the year is probably about right.
Admin
--Chris
March 15, 2011 at 10:09PM View BBCode
Are you set to 80/20 across all your strategy tabs?--Chris
Hamilton2
March 15, 2011 at 10:11PM View BBCode
No, just the base offense. However, I never had the ball in the yellow or red zone and my 2-minute offense doesn't kick in until 150 seconds. Also, in each of the default settings in all of those tabs, running is about 50%. I don't see any reason for the results that we got vs. OAK. I should have run the ball on 1st down at least 15:8 instead of 12:11 times.Pages: 1