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redcped
Is it possible that the chances of making those should be better?
I have a studly K who should be able to make some of these if given the chance, but we often punt in this range. So I'm dropping my settings to 25% chance of making it, just to see if we might try one or two.
But it still leaves the question of why [url=http://football.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=12759]this kicker[/url] with A+ power and A accuracy doesn't think a 50-yard field goal is at least 40% makeable.
Curious what others' experiences are like and whether the difficulty of 50-yarders needs to be revisited in the coding.
Long field goals
February 26, 2011 at 04:15PM View BBCode
We are in Week 10, and as yet no one has attempted a single FG of 50+ yards. Not a single attempt.Is it possible that the chances of making those should be better?
I have a studly K who should be able to make some of these if given the chance, but we often punt in this range. So I'm dropping my settings to 25% chance of making it, just to see if we might try one or two.
But it still leaves the question of why [url=http://football.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=12759]this kicker[/url] with A+ power and A accuracy doesn't think a 50-yard field goal is at least 40% makeable.
Curious what others' experiences are like and whether the difficulty of 50-yarders needs to be revisited in the coding.
Admin
The usual answer when I look at these is crosswinds. Also, make sure you have a good Holder, as good holds are more important to the success of longer kicks.
If you have a specific game example where you think the kick should have been taken (and if the quarter it happened in was within the last 24 hours) I can look at the game logs and see exactly what the percentage was.
--Chris
February 26, 2011 at 06:16PM View BBCode
Greater than 50 yarders are very makeable, perhaps too much so, especially when kicking with the wind.The usual answer when I look at these is crosswinds. Also, make sure you have a good Holder, as good holds are more important to the success of longer kicks.
If you have a specific game example where you think the kick should have been taken (and if the quarter it happened in was within the last 24 hours) I can look at the game logs and see exactly what the percentage was.
--Chris
Admin
Longest dist: 91 yds
Average dist: 69.5 yds
Average angle: 46 deg
Good: 5581 (55%)
Short: 613 (6%)
Wide Left: 2083 (20%)
Wide Right: 2113 (21%)
Holder:
Perfect Hold: 1401 (14%)
Good Hold: 7003 (70%)
Poor Hold: 1123 (11%)
Bad Hold: 473 (4%)
Good with Perfect Hold: 924 (65%)
Good with Good Hold: 4029 (57%)
Good with Poor Hold: 486 (43%)
Good with Bad Hold: 142 (30%)
Now, assuming Bob Tautolo is your Holder, I've plugged in your players' exact numbers and come up with the following:
Longest: 91 yds
Average: 72.2 yds
Average angle: 46 deg
Good: 6216 (62%)
Short: 425 (4%)
Wide Left: 1769 (17%)
Wide Right: 1915 (19%)
Holder:
Perfect Hold: 1418 (14%)
Good Hold: 7025 (70%)
Poor Hold: 1082 (10%)
Bad Hold: 475 (4%)
Good with Perfect Hold: 1124 (79%)
Good with Good Hold: 4451 (63%)
Good with Poor Hold: 518 (47%)
Good with Bad Hold: 123 (25%)
If I add in a 10mph crosswind, his success drops 8%; it drops 10% in a 10mph headwind. Adding light rain drops it another 6%; dropping the temperature 20 degrees drops success another 8%. So at these distances a lot of little factors could be conspiring together. But if you have the rate set at 50% I would expect at least some attempts with that kicker.
--Chris
[Edited on 2-26-2011 by Admin]
February 26, 2011 at 06:28PM View BBCode
I just ran my test page, simulating 10,000 kicks with a kicker with 90 Power, 80 Accuracy and 80 Execution, with a holder with 80 Hands and 80 Execution, from the 35 yard line (a 52 yard kick) with no wind on a 70 degree clear day, and here are the results:Longest dist: 91 yds
Average dist: 69.5 yds
Average angle: 46 deg
Good: 5581 (55%)
Short: 613 (6%)
Wide Left: 2083 (20%)
Wide Right: 2113 (21%)
Holder:
Perfect Hold: 1401 (14%)
Good Hold: 7003 (70%)
Poor Hold: 1123 (11%)
Bad Hold: 473 (4%)
Good with Perfect Hold: 924 (65%)
Good with Good Hold: 4029 (57%)
Good with Poor Hold: 486 (43%)
Good with Bad Hold: 142 (30%)
Now, assuming Bob Tautolo is your Holder, I've plugged in your players' exact numbers and come up with the following:
Longest: 91 yds
Average: 72.2 yds
Average angle: 46 deg
Good: 6216 (62%)
Short: 425 (4%)
Wide Left: 1769 (17%)
Wide Right: 1915 (19%)
Holder:
Perfect Hold: 1418 (14%)
Good Hold: 7025 (70%)
Poor Hold: 1082 (10%)
Bad Hold: 475 (4%)
Good with Perfect Hold: 1124 (79%)
Good with Good Hold: 4451 (63%)
Good with Poor Hold: 518 (47%)
Good with Bad Hold: 123 (25%)
If I add in a 10mph crosswind, his success drops 8%; it drops 10% in a 10mph headwind. Adding light rain drops it another 6%; dropping the temperature 20 degrees drops success another 8%. So at these distances a lot of little factors could be conspiring together. But if you have the rate set at 50% I would expect at least some attempts with that kicker.
--Chris
[Edited on 2-26-2011 by Admin]
redcped
I want to make sure you understood that it's not just my team. Not one 50-yarder has been attempted in the entire league yet. And these were the warmer months with dry weather, so we would expect percentages to be more favorable at those times.
February 26, 2011 at 06:35PM View BBCode
Thanks for the analysis, Chris.I want to make sure you understood that it's not just my team. Not one 50-yarder has been attempted in the entire league yet. And these were the warmer months with dry weather, so we would expect percentages to be more favorable at those times.
Admin
If within [30] yards of the goal line and the estimated chance of making a field goal is at least [50]%, attempt a field goal
If within [40] yards of the goal line and the estimated chance of making a field goal is at least [75]%, attempt a field goal
So under those settings I would not expect many 50-yard attempts with the average kicker. Are these settings too conservative, perhaps?
--Chris
February 26, 2011 at 06:43PM View BBCode
The default strategy settings are:If within [30] yards of the goal line and the estimated chance of making a field goal is at least [50]%, attempt a field goal
If within [40] yards of the goal line and the estimated chance of making a field goal is at least [75]%, attempt a field goal
So under those settings I would not expect many 50-yard attempts with the average kicker. Are these settings too conservative, perhaps?
--Chris
redcped
So I think somewhere between coding and strategy, we should be seeing each team trying somewhere in the range of 4 a year and making about half. Here are the NFL stats:
http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?season=2010&seasonType=REG&d-447263-o=2&tabSeq=0&statisticCategory=FIELD_GOALS&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=KICKING_FG_ATT_MADE_50PLUS&d-447263-n=1
February 26, 2011 at 06:51PM View BBCode
I checked 2010 NFL stats. You'll see that the average kicker tries 3-5 FG of 50+ yards. The percent made is pretty decent, too.So I think somewhere between coding and strategy, we should be seeing each team trying somewhere in the range of 4 a year and making about half. Here are the NFL stats:
http://www.nfl.com/stats/categorystats?season=2010&seasonType=REG&d-447263-o=2&tabSeq=0&statisticCategory=FIELD_GOALS&d-447263-p=1&d-447263-s=KICKING_FG_ATT_MADE_50PLUS&d-447263-n=1
redcped
http://www.nfl.com/players/sebastianjanikowski/careerstats?id=JAN400354
February 26, 2011 at 06:54PM View BBCode
Guys with big legs, like Sebastian Janikowski clearly try a good bit more. He's attempted at least 7 a season the past five years with as many as 11, and he hits just over 50% of them;http://www.nfl.com/players/sebastianjanikowski/careerstats?id=JAN400354
Admin
--Chris
February 26, 2011 at 07:31PM View BBCode
Sounds like changing the percentage for the second rule to 50% would accomplish that goal.--Chris
Classics
February 26, 2011 at 08:01PM View BBCode
We have attempted and made numerous long field goals. Hit a 57 yarder to win game.
redcped
Are you using default settings?
Can you post a link to your kicker?
February 26, 2011 at 08:16PM View BBCode
Originally posted by Classics
We have attempted and made numerous long field goals. Hit a 57 yarder to win game.
Are you using default settings?
Can you post a link to your kicker?
redcped
http://football.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp?boxscoreid=1539&thid=145
When we got to the 37, I sort of hoped we'd stall there and have to try one. Glad we did!
February 26, 2011 at 09:27PM View BBCode
Maybe it had something to do with tweaking my settings, but in the 4th quarter today we tried and made a 53-yarder.http://football.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp?boxscoreid=1539&thid=145
When we got to the 37, I sort of hoped we'd stall there and have to try one. Glad we did!
Penguin
February 26, 2011 at 10:23PM View BBCode
I agree with redcped. My league (Reggie White) is in week 13, and has had 1 FG of 50+ yards attempted in the entire league. Also, FG % seems a bit low
Classics
February 27, 2011 at 03:29AM View BBCode
http://football.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=39069 I hope this works. I am not useing default. Drafted a very good kicker. Settings take advantage of that.
redcped
http://football.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=12759
February 27, 2011 at 06:43AM View BBCode
Your kicker is definitely a big edge for you. I also drafted a really good one for that reason. We just seem to be getting into the end zone more, so he hasn't needed to try as many kicks. That's a good problem to have, I guess.http://football.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=12759
rollman1
(anyone wants to dig its reggie white league - SF)
February 27, 2011 at 07:48PM View BBCode
I have an opposite issue - my kicker sucks but his percentage of completing inside 40 still seems to suck too much for a kicker that would actually be in the NFL. When I have a second will post card and stats.(anyone wants to dig its reggie white league - SF)
rollman1
Ok, granted he sucks with B+ power, B accuracy but he is 4-7 from 30-39.
Now that I think about it this is pretty meaningless and not nearly enough data - clearly a case of remembering the bad.
February 27, 2011 at 07:52PM View BBCode
[url=http://football.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=2502]OTG Kicker[/url]Ok, granted he sucks with B+ power, B accuracy but he is 4-7 from 30-39.
Now that I think about it this is pretty meaningless and not nearly enough data - clearly a case of remembering the bad.
Admin
In last night's updates I made field goals easier to make, especially for marginal kickers, and reduced the effects of wind.
I may go back and look at his actual kicks... hovering over the goal post icon will show you exactly how close he was to making it and the wind conditions. If they are mostly near misses, I'd chalk this up to bad luck and small sample size; if they are all short or way off that's a different issue.
--Chris
February 27, 2011 at 07:57PM View BBCode
I need to add splits for wind conditions.In last night's updates I made field goals easier to make, especially for marginal kickers, and reduced the effects of wind.
I may go back and look at his actual kicks... hovering over the goal post icon will show you exactly how close he was to making it and the wind conditions. If they are mostly near misses, I'd chalk this up to bad luck and small sample size; if they are all short or way off that's a different issue.
--Chris
Admin
A missed 24 yarder was out by an inch or two; that one was opposite the wind, he overcompensated. Heartbreaker.
His missed 40-50 yard kick was a 41-yarder into the wind that fell short and wide. He got a poor hold on that one, but poor holds only affect distance, not accuracy, so it was just a bad kick.
It is worth noting that at the time of the kick, the game internally simulates 1000 kicks using that player under those exact conditions, and compares it to the percentage in your strategy settings. So the fact that he even attempts the kick tells you he can make it at least that percent of the time. The sign of a poor kicker isn't missed field goals so much as not going for the field goal at all.
--Chris
February 27, 2011 at 08:16PM View BBCode
Two of his three missed kicks at that range were in yesterday's game with an 8MPH crosswind; one was outside by a couple of feet and the other was out by about 10 feet, both in the direction of the wind. One of these would have been good if last night's changes had already been in effect.A missed 24 yarder was out by an inch or two; that one was opposite the wind, he overcompensated. Heartbreaker.
His missed 40-50 yard kick was a 41-yarder into the wind that fell short and wide. He got a poor hold on that one, but poor holds only affect distance, not accuracy, so it was just a bad kick.
It is worth noting that at the time of the kick, the game internally simulates 1000 kicks using that player under those exact conditions, and compares it to the percentage in your strategy settings. So the fact that he even attempts the kick tells you he can make it at least that percent of the time. The sign of a poor kicker isn't missed field goals so much as not going for the field goal at all.
--Chris
rollman1
Thanks for the quick response !
February 27, 2011 at 08:49PM View BBCode
Ok - that makes it clearer. Didnt know about seeing the detail of how far he missed since the misses dont look heartbreaking as much as complete shanks on DV.Thanks for the quick response !
STEROIDS_R_US
I think there still must be an issue here guys. thanks
Oh yeah my kicker even though his skill levels are "B+" for everything is only 50% on the season for making field goals. Wouldn't last more then a few games in the NFL lol. cheers
here is the link to the game
http://football.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp?boxscoreid=919&thid=91
I guess 18 mph wind is high but it does not sound that bad and if it is that bad then why would my kicker be attempting them if the percentage is so bad (missed 3 out of 4)???
my stats are set to attempt at 35 yards and in and only attempt if a 40% chance to make. So his average for the game was only 25%.
[Edited on 3-1-2011 by STEROIDS_R_US]
March 01, 2011 at 03:19AM View BBCode
wow I guess the changes did not help my kicker who has " B+" power, "B+ " accuracy and "B+" execution and the holder has "A- " execution and "A " for hands. The weather was great for the game except for a slight crosswind of about 15 mph. In this game my kicker missed 3 out of 4 field goals from the opponents 22 , 14 , 18 yard lines. Plus he missed 2 extra points. In total in the game my team missed 3 out of 4 field goals and 2 extra points while my opponents team missed 1 field goal (attempted only 2) and 1 extra point. 3 extra points missed in a single game ??? You will never see that in the NFL lol.I think there still must be an issue here guys. thanks
Oh yeah my kicker even though his skill levels are "B+" for everything is only 50% on the season for making field goals. Wouldn't last more then a few games in the NFL lol. cheers
here is the link to the game
http://football.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp?boxscoreid=919&thid=91
I guess 18 mph wind is high but it does not sound that bad and if it is that bad then why would my kicker be attempting them if the percentage is so bad (missed 3 out of 4)???
my stats are set to attempt at 35 yards and in and only attempt if a 40% chance to make. So his average for the game was only 25%.
[Edited on 3-1-2011 by STEROIDS_R_US]
redcped
You may well be right about tweaks being necessary, but I don't think you should be assuming that's a good kicker.
I have a kicker who is A+/A and has made 17 of 21 FG and is perfect on XP.
http://football.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=12759
I expect that in mature multi-season leagues, it will be rare for anyone to have a kicker below A- overall. But really the most important factor is going to be accuracy. Look at this guy in my league:
http://football.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=12751
B overall, but A+ accuracy. He's 25 for 29
March 01, 2011 at 03:55AM View BBCode
I do think it's worth noting that B+ is not all that good.You may well be right about tweaks being necessary, but I don't think you should be assuming that's a good kicker.
I have a kicker who is A+/A and has made 17 of 21 FG and is perfect on XP.
http://football.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=12759
I expect that in mature multi-season leagues, it will be rare for anyone to have a kicker below A- overall. But really the most important factor is going to be accuracy. Look at this guy in my league:
http://football.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=12751
B overall, but A+ accuracy. He's 25 for 29
STEROIDS_R_US
March 01, 2011 at 11:52PM View BBCode
yeah I found the "A+" accuracy not to mean all that much in this sim football as I have 2 QB's with "A+" accuracy and they seem to throw quite a bit of interceptions. I realize B+ , B+ , B+ is not the greatest but you would think it would be better then 50% kicking percentage especially when there are very limited A , A kickers .
rollman1
March 02, 2011 at 08:15PM View BBCode
I have had 3 FGs blocked in the last two games but when he gets them off they now go in :)
GatorBoudreaux
March 02, 2011 at 09:17PM View BBCode
I've got an A+/A+ kicker that's perfect under 30, perfect over 40, but only 8 for 13 from 30-39. I think he's got an attitude problem when the ball is only on the 20.
Admin
Hm, I may need to look at that. It should average out to once every 40 attempts. Either that or there may be a weakness in your offensive line.
--Chris
March 02, 2011 at 10:01PM View BBCode
Originally posted by rollman1
I have had 3 FGs blocked in the last two games but when he gets them off they now go in :)
Hm, I may need to look at that. It should average out to once every 40 attempts. Either that or there may be a weakness in your offensive line.
--Chris
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