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celamantia

Dropped passes

January 17, 2011 at 07:13PM View BBCode

You will start seeing receivers drop passes. Dropped passes are on-target passes that specifically were going to be caught but are dropped without any interference from the defense, etc.

The intended average is that dropped passes will occur on 5.5-6% of all targeted passes, which should work out to about 10% of all would-be completions. (The overall base completion rate is increased to balance this out.) Of course, this is affected by player ability, specifically catching and hands weighted evenly. Execution is not weighted in but fatigue is. Temperature is not factored in (it is factored in elsewhere in the reception process) but wet weather is, adding from 2.5%-3.2% (about 25% increase in overall drops) to account for mishandling a slippery, wet ball.

Due to "small sample size" for an individual receiver, I would expect individual drop rates to vary between 0% and 20%.

--Chris

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