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Admin

Increased Conversion rates for mediocre pitchers

May 20, 2008 at 07:33PM View BBCode

I've put some logic in place that will give a 5% boost in conversion percentage (Majors and Minors) to pitchers who generically fit these criteria (it is not exact what is coded, but you'll get the idea of the kinds of players this is targetting)

20-23 Years Old and C+ or worse overall
24-25 Years Old and B- or worse overall
26 and Older and B or worse overall

So for example, in the current system a 25 year old C+/C+ pitcher would convert about 25% of his chances in the majors. Now, he will now convert about 30%.

I am trying to err on the side of caution, and make this so that it doesn't affect the regular prospects, and when it does have an effect it isn't dramatic. I may make tweaks to it after we see how it works out in current leagues or maybe even before it leaves beta.

Let me know your thoughts.

Tyson
tworoosters

May 20, 2008 at 07:44PM View BBCode

Doesn't seem as it will impact greatly.

How many C+/C+ 25 year olds are used regularly ? In my three regular multi season leagues I found a total of 5 pitchers who fit the first 2 criteria.

If they get 40 ICs they will change their conversion from 10 to 12 with 1 of the extra 2 generally going to endurance.
celamantia

May 20, 2008 at 07:47PM View BBCode

I think part of the problem isn't the development of the pitchers per se, but that there is too large of a gulf between top and bottom. Right now a C+ control pitcher is essentially useless. I'm guessing that the formulas involving control are essentially linear where they perhaps should be more of a curve.

Also, maybe there should be a bit of a psychological factor involved. I mean, a guy out there with A+ velocity and D control is liable to kill someone.. you can bet the hitters facing him won't crowd the plate! So his walks and HBP may be up but hits against him may actually go down a bit.
Admin

May 20, 2008 at 08:00PM View BBCode

TR - I used that as an example because it was easy to do the math on. You can see that it should have an impact on other players who are not quite prospects. 26 year old B overall guys, for example.

Tyson
tworoosters

May 20, 2008 at 08:28PM View BBCode

I think the gap is also widened by the soft cap. Without "gaming the game" a pitcher gets around 45-55 ICs a year with roughly 25 % of those going to endurance.

A healthy hitting prospect can easily attain 70 ICs a year so over the course of 5 years the hitter gets roughly 100 extra improvement chances.

I think we need to make it easier for pitchers to get 60 improvement chances but virtually impossible for them to get more than say 65. I also would like it if pitchers could continue to improve more past OS27 and perhaps not decline as abruptly as hitters, which is more a reflection of MLB I think.

I also like celementia's idea for skills effectiveness being more of a curve than straight linear but I'm not entirely sure how to make that work.
celamantia

May 20, 2008 at 08:33PM View BBCode

I think you're onto something, tworoosters... it would make sense for younger players to build velocity and more mature players to develop control. So if the development period for control is extended, it would perhaps even things out. Maybe have it a sliding scale so once you're at B or B+ control, the improvement conversion rates for 25-30 year olds starts to taper off.
Admin

May 20, 2008 at 08:39PM View BBCode

I'm not looking for this to become a huge project, just a little boost to help VORP.

Tyson
celamantia

May 20, 2008 at 08:42PM View BBCode

Well, perhaps tworoosters' idea should go into a separate thread. Going back to the original post, yes I think this change is worthwhile, but we probably won't really know until a dozen seasons or so go by.
Shaheen

May 21, 2008 at 11:06AM View BBCode

I also think since control is the major factor in pitchers, the overall number for pitchers is not as 'correct'. It was stated that the draft takes the top x number of pitchers to add to the pool. If you look at what pitchers are on the waiver wire, there are a bunch of low 60's total pitchers. They all are red numbers for velocity and green for control. No one will touch these pitchers and they will sit on the waiver wire until they retire.
Now sort the pitchers by age, the under 21's pitchers are yellow in the control. People will not even take a chance to develop these pitchers or use them to fill in if there is an injury.

With the batters, if they have a good power from one side or can field, at least they can fill in for injury or try you can take the chance if you want to try and develop a certain position.

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