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tysonlowery

Pitcher Endurance (Please Read)

October 27, 2003 at 08:58PM View BBCode

You'll notice a couple new things on the rotation & bullpen page.

First, the cosmetic changes that were made to the other pages are made on this page (teams in the drop down, etc.)

Second, you'll see some new columns on this page. For now, please ignore the far right column for setting the next starter, Kee-Won is still working on getting this going, it doesn't work yet.

There are two columns for Energy, one called Old Energy and one called New Energy. I am looking for your feedback in this area. The New Eneregy is also a link to a new page that shows how many batters he has faced in each of the last five games.

Note that the New Energy display is just for display, it isn't being used in the games yet. I want to get your feedback on the calculation first.

Okay, drum roll please, here is how I decided to calculate pitcher tiredness. The code will look at each of the last 5 games and how many batters the guy faced in each game. Then it does this calculation:

Last Game Batters Faced * -5
2 Days ago Batters Faced * -4
3 Days ago Batters Faced * -3
4 Days ago Batters Faced * -2
5 Days Ago Batters Faced * -1

It adds these together (we'll call all these added together the tired factor) and compares them to Endurance. For Starting Pitchers, it uses Endurance divided by 2. For Relief pitchers just plain endurance.

So if the endurance is greater than the tired factor, then the guy is fully rested.

If the guy is not fully rested, I'll do another version of the tired factor, but htis time like this:
Last Game Batters Faced * -4
2 Days ago Batters Faced * -3
3 Days ago Batters Faced * -2
4 Days ago Batters Faced * -1

If endurance is greater than this number, the guy has 4 bars.

I'll do it again with this:
Last Game Batters Faced * -3
2 Days ago Batters Faced * -2
3 Days ago Batters Faced * -1

If endurance is greater than this number, the guy has 3 bars.

etc.


I haven't decided how this will effect pitcher performance, but it will in some way. I figured this would be a good way to get the discussion going.

Please give me your feedback and use the new tools to make comments on how the pitcher endurance stuff will work.
disciple

October 27, 2003 at 10:24PM View BBCode

Any chance you'd consider giving youthful pitchers an edge on endurance recovery?

All things being equal a youthful pitcher is going to bounce back quicker than an older guy. A 37 year old pitcher needs more rest between starts than a 22 year old (aka Josh Beckett of the Marlins).

This would be a nice trade off for the ding on health for young SP that log more than 200 IP in a season.

Keep your current calculations, and maybe bias them by a percentage based on age:

Ages 17-21 = +5% endurance
Ages 22-26 = +10%
Ages 27-31 = 0%
Ages 32-36 = -10%
Ages 37-99 = -20%

So using these numbers, ages 22-26 bounce back quicker than any other age group.

What do you guys think?
disciple

Is this important?

October 27, 2003 at 10:55PM View BBCode

I was a little confused by the 5 days listed being 1 day ahead of the current schedule. The last game played was on 6/8/1971, but when I click on the new energy link I see these 5 dates:

Glenn Benton Energy Report

Date Batters Faced
1971-06-09 0
1971-06-08 0
1971-06-07 0
1971-06-06 0
1971-06-05 0

Shouldn't the first date listed actually be 1971-06-08? Or does this even matter?
tysonlowery

October 27, 2003 at 11:53PM View BBCode

Looks like I entered the wrong date - I can fix that. Subtract 1 from every date for now.

As for the yough thing, I would consider that a different enhancement and outside the scope of this particular change. Might be worth adding, but doesn't really have a bearing on this per se.

I'm going to start changing the Game engine tomorrow to follow these changes. Let me know if you have comments.
Bob

October 28, 2003 at 02:00PM View BBCode

This is going to be a great addition once it's working smoothly. There are a few things I've noticed that may need to be addressed.

1. You state: "For Starting Pitchers, it uses Endurance divided by 2. For Relief pitchers just plain endurance." Is a guy labeled a starter or reliever based upon his player card or based on whether or not he is in the rotation? If it's based off his player card, then a C+ endurance reliever will effectively have more endurance than a B- starter. I think it would make more sense if this is based upon whether or not they are in the rotation. After playing around with the settings, this seems to be the case -- I just wanted to confirm.

2. My starter in the last game only pitched to 7 batters before being pulled (rightfully so -- he gave up 5 runs). However, he is now listed as having full energy, since his tired factor is 35 and his endurance is B+. Since he's my ace, my guess is that ABE would choose him to start my next game if I had skip starters selected. This doesn't seem realistic -- except in the playoffs I think it's very rare for a starter to come back on less than 3 days rest and I don't think they would ever come back and pitch the next day, even if they only faced 7 batters the day before. Basically, it seems that starters who get knocked out of the game early can come back on 1 or 2 days rest, which ABE should somehow prevent.

3. My 2nd starter has C- endurance and pitched 4 days ago, facing 15 batters. Under the old system he has 4 energy bars. Under the new system he only has 3. With a C-, his endurance is between 29 and 36 -- since he's 15th out of 19, I'd guess his endurance is probably 30. If I'm calculating correctly, after the next game he'll have a tired factor of 15 (15 batters faced 5 days ago). Since half his endurance does not exceed his tired factor, he won't be considered fully rested and therefore won't be able to start. This seems unrealistic -- even though he has a C- endurance he has 4 full days of rest and only faced 15 batters in his last start. I think anybody who has had 4 complete days off should be fully rested.

4. Will both starters and relievers recover during off-days in the schedule?

5. What will the various energy bar levels mean? I assume a guy will only start if he is at full energy (unless nobody with full rest is available). What about relievers? Will a guy with 2 bars be available to pitch? If so, will his performance take a hit? How about his endurance?

6. At first glance, it appears that the system may be overly harsh to relievers. For example, Bob Jourdan has 3 energy bars. Although he only has a D- endurance, he has had 2 days off and pitched to 4 batters 3 days ago and 6 batters 4 days ago. I think that after 2 days off he should be fully rested. It seems that relievers don't recover enough on off-days -- maybe it makes sense to give guys a small bonus for a day off.

Overall, I like the way this is going. I'm just trying to pick it apart as much as possible before it gets over to the main site.
tysonlowery

Replies to Bob

October 28, 2003 at 04:53PM View BBCode

1. It is based off of whether he is in the rotation or bullpen.

2. Good points. If a guy pitched in either of the last two days, he should be ineligible to start no matter if he only faced 1 batter.

3. I'm not sure which way to go on this. This could be a good thing that a true starter wouldn't be able to start every 5 days. Or that an A+ Endurance guy could go every 4 days. It could prevent you from using him anywhere except as the 5th starter.

4. Yes, we'll have to test this though to make sure every reliever doesn't become a 1974 Mike Marshall.

5. Only starters with 5 bars could start. I haven't decided on the penalties, but a RP with 2 bars could pitch. It might be nice to add a managerial pref that says try not to use RP with 3 bars or less of energy.

6. Yes that does seem out of whack.

Another thought I had. Maybe this new system should only apply for RP? That is really the problem I am trying to solve - changing the way SP are rested might create more problems where none really exist.
tysonlowery

Reply to Disciple

October 28, 2003 at 05:22PM View BBCode

I think you may have been viewing that in the middle of when the games were running. The date looks fine to me.
Bob

October 28, 2003 at 05:39PM View BBCode

Tyson said: "Another thought I had. Maybe this new system should only apply for RP? That is really the problem I am trying to solve - changing the way SP are rested might create more problems where none really exist."

You may be right -- starters seem to work pretty well already so it may make sense to limit this system to relievers. I do like the idea of being able to start a guy on short rest -- particularly in the playoffs. However, you could probably do that with the "Next Starter" logic you're developing. Maybe you could allow a guy to start if he has 4 energy bars and simply give him a hit on endurance and performance.
jer2911

October 28, 2003 at 05:48PM View BBCode

You may be right -- starters seem to work pretty well already so it may make sense to limit this system to relievers. I do like the idea of being able to start a guy on short rest -- particularly in the playoffs. However, you could probably do that with the "Next Starter" logic you're developing. Maybe you could allow a guy to start if he has 4 energy bars and simply give him a hit on endurance and performance.


I agree.

As far as the rest of the stuff goes, it's looking pretty good do far, I just need to sit down and get it organized in my heard how to make it work to my advantage so I can win the World Series this year with only 1 really good pitcher, and an RP at that. ;)
hcboomer

October 28, 2003 at 06:31PM View BBCode

Tyson mentions that the RP problem is the one primarily trying to be fixed here. What, specifically, is the problem or problems with the RP usage? Might help to gauge the effects of the new energy to have a sense of what we're most trying to accomplish.
tysonlowery

October 28, 2003 at 06:35PM View BBCode

There are really two problems.

This is why I have decided to do this now:
http://www.simdynasty.com/oldforum-viewthread.jsp?tid=13830

But since I'm in here, I am trying to make it more realistic. RP should be able to pitch 3 games in a row at times, or pitch 3 games in a row if there is an offday in there.

disciple

October 28, 2003 at 06:42PM View BBCode

My closer's "new energy" is currently at 2 bars after having pitched in 1 game (3 batters) in the last 5 days. Seems like a D- endurance closer is going to be almost useless with these new rules... Are we placing too much emphasis on endurance for an RP?

Johnny Cooker Energy Report

Date Batters Faced
1971-06-18 3
1971-06-17 0
1971-06-16 0
1971-06-15 0
1971-06-14 0

[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/beta/player.jsp?mode=player&playername=nobody&id=5249]Player Card[/url]
hcboomer

October 28, 2003 at 07:08PM View BBCode

I wasn't able to call up the thread Tyson posted, but it sounds like the thrust of this is to make reliever usage a little less rigid by considering how much a reliever is used within each game.

That said, it does seem like trying to bring starters into the mix might gum up the works unnecessarily. Seems like the starter usage works pretty well already in terms of running through rotations, endurance/innings per start etc. The issue there is more one of injuries (pitchers still don't get hurt nearly often enough, which means starters have absurdly consistent workloads over many years), but that's an entirely different question.
disciple

Tysons link

October 28, 2003 at 08:36PM View BBCode

[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/oldforum-viewthread.jsp?tid=13830]Click here for Tysons link from previous message[/url]

Cool! The message board "Edit" message function is working... Am I the only one who didn't notice this until now? :rolleyes:

[Edited on 10-29-2003 by disciple]
geoffrey13

wow...

October 29, 2003 at 01:34AM View BBCode

I think starters should stay the same as before, unless it's a starter in the bullpen...these ratings should reflect where a pitcher is in the rotation, not on their card.
I still liked the system pretty much as it was, except for the people now taking advantage of being able to use a SP as long relief...that needs to be adressed obviously, but couldn't it be done better by simply looking at a basic rule, like if a RP pitches 3+ innings one day he can't pitch more than 1 the next?
I do like the ability to select the next games starter, that's a really good thing to have.
tysonlowery

October 29, 2003 at 03:06PM View BBCode



I do like the ability to select the next games starter, that's a really good thing to have.

BTW - this feature is available to you guys now, its just on another screen, I think Manager Preferences, then Bullpen.
tysonlowery

October 29, 2003 at 03:53PM View BBCode

Let me start from the top on this again and see if that helps the discussion.

1. Obviously we need to fix it so if a RP goes 5 innings he won't be available the next day.

2. I would also like to fix it so RP get to take advantage of OffDays in the schedule.

3. And I would like to make it so RP can pitch 3 days in a row if he's not overworked.

I think I'm going to tweak the formula again. Let me try this. Any RP with endurance over 50 would max out at 50 for these purposes. This will make it so you can't put all A+ endurance guys in the BP and have them fully rested for every game. Then you would add 30 to every pitchers endurance, which gives us a range of 31 to 80. This is done to lessen the difference between each rating. Then the multiplies used will be 8, 5, 2, 1, 1 - which puts greater emphasis on how much you pitched yesterday verses 3, 4, and 5 days ago.

A couple examples, a pitcher with 30 endurance pitched to 7 batters yesterday. He's tiredfactor would be 56, endurance setting 60. He's going to be really tired today, but should be able to pitch. A guy with 15 endurance (Medium D) pitches to 4 batters yesterday. His tiredfactor would be 32, endurance factor 45. He's okay. But if he pitched to 4 batters in the previous game as well, he would have to sit out today.
tysonlowery

October 29, 2003 at 04:03PM View BBCode

Hmmm, I put this in and it didn't seem to be harsh enough. I'm going to tweak the formula again.
tysonlowery

October 29, 2003 at 04:23PM View BBCode

Okay, I have made some more changes. I'm not going to go into the details of the formulas. I did add another change where if a guy pitched each of the last two days he can't be fully rested no matter what.

The thought here is that guys should in general be not as rested as they were before - since you're now going to receive the benefit of the offday. Right now I think its about the same. So I'm going to continue thinking about it.

Post some examples where you think your player is either too well rested or not rested enough.
Bob

October 29, 2003 at 06:50PM View BBCode

George Rodriguez has D endurance. Here is his energy report:

1971-07-03 4
1971-07-02 5
1971-07-01 0
1971-06-30 0
1971-06-29 0

Basically, he's pitched about an inning each of the last two days. He is at 3 energy bars. Since he's only a D endurance, I think he should possibly be at 2 or 1 energy bar. It's arguable, but I'm not sure that a D endurance guy should be able to pitch an inning 3 days in a row.
Bob

October 29, 2003 at 08:55PM View BBCode

George Bernhardt has C- endurance. Here is his energy report:

1971-07-05 0
1971-07-04 0
1971-07-03 0
1971-07-02 0
1971-07-01 16

He's in the starting rotation and is listed with 4 energy bars. I would think that a guy has had 4 days off should be at full energy regardless of his endurance or how many innings he pitched 5 days ago.
tysonlowery

October 29, 2003 at 09:22PM View BBCode

I'm still undecided on the SP stuff. I'll probably not make any changes on how it works today.

I agree with you on the RP.

[Edited on 10-29-2003 by tysonlowery]
tysonlowery

October 30, 2003 at 04:45PM View BBCode

I made some more changes. You can now set you your next pitcher will be on this screen (if you are using never skip or skip 5th starters). If he isn't fully rested, you'll get a warning message. Let me know if this message is clear.

I changed it so SP uses the old logic. And I updated the RP logic (this was actually done yesterday around the time I posted that reply above).
celamantia

October 31, 2003 at 02:49PM View BBCode

Instead of putting up a warning message, why not just grey out anyone who's not fully rested?
tysonlowery

October 31, 2003 at 03:04PM View BBCode

Because you may have a reason for setting your rotation to that place.

Here's one I can think of, there may be others. Let's say you just completed the last day of the regular season, and are awaiting the offday before the 1st game of the playoffs. You may want your 1st pitcher to start, even though at that moment he only has 4 bars. You'll know he will have 5 bars by the time the game is played so you set him to be the next starter in your rotation.

Question for you guys: This doesn't actually set that pitcher to be the next pitcher in your rotation, it sets his "rotation spot" to be the next pitcher. Any ideas on how to make that more clear to people? Or is it important?

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