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StvenC
http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=3396003
But, not having seen how players develop from season to season, it's very tough for me to guess what a minor leaguer or a draft pick should actually be worth on the trade market.
Could somebody offer me a clue about what my guy Vic Howard could be expected to develop into in the future, and how many seasons that should take?
And another clue about what a first-round draft pick is worth?
Thanks for any help!
:puzzled:
What are draft picks worth?
June 06, 2007 at 06:31AM View BBCode
Help me out here, guys! I'm managing a Dynasty League team for the first time and have an interesting trade offer from an owner who wants a first-round draft pick along with Vic Howard, the guy I consider my best minor leaguer at the moment:http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&mode=stats&id=3396003
But, not having seen how players develop from season to season, it's very tough for me to guess what a minor leaguer or a draft pick should actually be worth on the trade market.
Could somebody offer me a clue about what my guy Vic Howard could be expected to develop into in the future, and how many seasons that should take?
And another clue about what a first-round draft pick is worth?
Thanks for any help!
:puzzled:
thatrogue
In looking at your lineup, Howard should be starting ahead of Hooten (I'd look at converting Howard to SS and Barouche to 3B). Additionally, I'd consider playing Zinn ahead of Bailey at 1B. I'd probably put together a lineup something like this:
Howard SS - maximize his remaining PAs and hope that his B-/A ratings enable him to get on base at a decent rate
Quest CF - good contact and bunting ability
Kommers 2B - great speed and on base skills and useful power
Barouche 3B - an absolute offensive monster. He'll drive in a lot of runs and compete for the MVP
Ryan LF - what Barouche does not drive in, Ryan will
Zinn 1B - the aging veteran is still productive
Gibson RF - take advantage of his bat but hide his defensive deficiencies
Shakespeare C - you have to have a catcher somewhere. :)
Some of these guys will take time to convert to their new positions, but the offense should be outstanding. If you reconfigure your lineup and get Howard the ABs, he will be a B+/A+ vR offensive force for many, many years (though he will be somewhat less effective against LHs...probably B/A). Unless you are getting a couple of young, A overall, stud pitchers, I see no need to trade away Howard plus a first rounder for anything else.
June 06, 2007 at 12:32PM View BBCode
The best major league improvements come at OS23, OS24, OS25 and OS26. Thus, you are really hurting Howard's development having him in the minors with no CPs. Considering he has D health, he needs as many ABs as possible because he will miss approximately one out of every six games.In looking at your lineup, Howard should be starting ahead of Hooten (I'd look at converting Howard to SS and Barouche to 3B). Additionally, I'd consider playing Zinn ahead of Bailey at 1B. I'd probably put together a lineup something like this:
Howard SS - maximize his remaining PAs and hope that his B-/A ratings enable him to get on base at a decent rate
Quest CF - good contact and bunting ability
Kommers 2B - great speed and on base skills and useful power
Barouche 3B - an absolute offensive monster. He'll drive in a lot of runs and compete for the MVP
Ryan LF - what Barouche does not drive in, Ryan will
Zinn 1B - the aging veteran is still productive
Gibson RF - take advantage of his bat but hide his defensive deficiencies
Shakespeare C - you have to have a catcher somewhere. :)
Some of these guys will take time to convert to their new positions, but the offense should be outstanding. If you reconfigure your lineup and get Howard the ABs, he will be a B+/A+ vR offensive force for many, many years (though he will be somewhat less effective against LHs...probably B/A). Unless you are getting a couple of young, A overall, stud pitchers, I see no need to trade away Howard plus a first rounder for anything else.
barterer2002
For a player who I'm fully developing (ie. 5 Cps in the minors and a top three batting spot in the majors to maximize plate appearances)
In the minors at age 17-18-19 I guesstimate one full grade of improvement each season. From age 20-22 I guesstimate two grades over those three seasons if I keep in him the minors all that time. Age 23-27 I guess one to one and a half grades of improvements.
Obviously there are other factors that affect a player's development but that's my starting point. If its a player that I want to develop he almost has to be in my lineup at age 23.
WHen I say a grade I mean from C- to C as a one grade improvement.
Now to get back to your original question which is the value of draft picks.
In general your late round picks will not be worth anything. I never even bother including 4th or 5th round picks with one exception. If I'm sending out multiple offers and only want one of them to be accepted I sometimes include the same 5th round pick in each of the offers simply so that all the others will auto cancel when that any one is accepted.
3rd round picks have very limited value on the trade market. On their own they may fetch you a player who is expected to retire that you're acquiring midseason but even then some owners won't deal for a 3rd rounder at all.
2nd round picks have some value. I find that they are most often used to acquire mentoring players of age 32 or higher. Essentially one year rentals.
1st round picks certainly have value the more so the higher they are. My own personal rule of thumb is not to deal my first round pick for players older than age 30 although i sometimes break it if a) my pick is projected to be a playoff pick (end of the first round) and b) I know my CP distribution in the minors is already spoken for next season AND c) the player I'm acquiring can help push me over the hump either into the playoffs or into a championship. For a top three pick in the draft I'd want a player who immediately goes into my lineup who is under the age of 28 and who I think will be an allstar within the next two seasons.
June 06, 2007 at 01:27PM View BBCode
Stven, my general rule of thumb for development is as follows.For a player who I'm fully developing (ie. 5 Cps in the minors and a top three batting spot in the majors to maximize plate appearances)
In the minors at age 17-18-19 I guesstimate one full grade of improvement each season. From age 20-22 I guesstimate two grades over those three seasons if I keep in him the minors all that time. Age 23-27 I guess one to one and a half grades of improvements.
Obviously there are other factors that affect a player's development but that's my starting point. If its a player that I want to develop he almost has to be in my lineup at age 23.
WHen I say a grade I mean from C- to C as a one grade improvement.
Now to get back to your original question which is the value of draft picks.
In general your late round picks will not be worth anything. I never even bother including 4th or 5th round picks with one exception. If I'm sending out multiple offers and only want one of them to be accepted I sometimes include the same 5th round pick in each of the offers simply so that all the others will auto cancel when that any one is accepted.
3rd round picks have very limited value on the trade market. On their own they may fetch you a player who is expected to retire that you're acquiring midseason but even then some owners won't deal for a 3rd rounder at all.
2nd round picks have some value. I find that they are most often used to acquire mentoring players of age 32 or higher. Essentially one year rentals.
1st round picks certainly have value the more so the higher they are. My own personal rule of thumb is not to deal my first round pick for players older than age 30 although i sometimes break it if a) my pick is projected to be a playoff pick (end of the first round) and b) I know my CP distribution in the minors is already spoken for next season AND c) the player I'm acquiring can help push me over the hump either into the playoffs or into a championship. For a top three pick in the draft I'd want a player who immediately goes into my lineup who is under the age of 28 and who I think will be an allstar within the next two seasons.
barterer2002
June 06, 2007 at 01:29PM View BBCode
Also, for future reference, this isn't the best forum for a question like this as its not one that people look at much. You'd get a better response by posting in the Questions and Answers forum.
StvenC
I had actually reassigned Howard's 5 CPs to another player, figuring if I was going to trade him, I didn't want him getting any better before he left the team!
But if I understand what you're saying, Howard's development would fare better if he were batting regularly in the majors instead of getting the coaching in the minors? I gather this also means that a player gets better mentoring if he's actually in the game than if he's on the bench in the majors.
With a player who splits time between the majors and minors in a single season, will he get the benefit of both the CPs in the minors and the mentoring/experience in the majors?
One problem with my lineup right now is that my starting RF is on the DL. I brought Hooten up to fill in the blank and he has turned out to be quite the little sparkplug, low power numbers but a great on-base percentage thanks to a lot of walks. Now, perversely, Hooten suffered an injury in yesterday's game so I've got yet another outfielder up from the minors.
Another problem is that almost all of my players have health ratings such that they tire out at different intervals and need to be rested every few games, so it seems like I'm constantly juggling the lineup.
Another problem is that I've got lots of guys to play 3B, and Howard would be yet another if I brought him up.
What does it take to convert a player to a new position? Just stick him in and let him get the experience? I was under the impression that I'd get poor performance unless it was listed as an alternate position on the player's chart.
I have the same kinds of questions here about switching positions. How can I put Kommers in at 2B when he's only rated as an outfielder? How can I play Gibson in the OF when he's only rated at 3B and 2B? How can I expect Barouche to play 3B when he's only rated at SS? Why would I even want to put Howard in at SS when he's listed as 3B and Barouche is listed at SS?
I don't think I know what PAs are. ???
Thanks for the advice. The trade I was offered was for a much better catcher than I've currently got on the team, but from what you're telling me I gather it wouldn't be a great deal to get one player a few years from retirement for a first-round pick and a solid prospect -- even if I'm having trouble finding room on my roster for the prospect. Maybe I should take the deal if we took the first-round draft pick out of the equation.
I'll get back about the other message when I've got a few more minutes to spare.
Thanks again,
Stven
Thanks!
June 06, 2007 at 05:39PM View BBCode
Thanks to both of you for your helpful replies! I have more questions.....!Originally posted by thatrogue
The best major league improvements come at OS23, OS24, OS25 and OS26. Thus, you are really hurting Howard's development having him in the minors with no CPs. Considering he has D health, he needs as many ABs as possible because he will miss approximately one out of every six games.
I had actually reassigned Howard's 5 CPs to another player, figuring if I was going to trade him, I didn't want him getting any better before he left the team!
But if I understand what you're saying, Howard's development would fare better if he were batting regularly in the majors instead of getting the coaching in the minors? I gather this also means that a player gets better mentoring if he's actually in the game than if he's on the bench in the majors.
With a player who splits time between the majors and minors in a single season, will he get the benefit of both the CPs in the minors and the mentoring/experience in the majors?
In looking at your lineup, Howard should be starting ahead of Hooten (I'd look at converting Howard to SS and Barouche to 3B). Additionally, I'd consider playing Zinn ahead of Bailey at 1B. I'd probably put together a lineup something like this:
One problem with my lineup right now is that my starting RF is on the DL. I brought Hooten up to fill in the blank and he has turned out to be quite the little sparkplug, low power numbers but a great on-base percentage thanks to a lot of walks. Now, perversely, Hooten suffered an injury in yesterday's game so I've got yet another outfielder up from the minors.
Another problem is that almost all of my players have health ratings such that they tire out at different intervals and need to be rested every few games, so it seems like I'm constantly juggling the lineup.
Another problem is that I've got lots of guys to play 3B, and Howard would be yet another if I brought him up.
What does it take to convert a player to a new position? Just stick him in and let him get the experience? I was under the impression that I'd get poor performance unless it was listed as an alternate position on the player's chart.
Howard SS - maximize his remaining PAs and hope that his B-/A ratings enable him to get on base at a decent rate
Quest CF - good contact and bunting ability
Kommers 2B - great speed and on base skills and useful power
Barouche 3B - an absolute offensive monster. He'll drive in a lot of runs and compete for the MVP
Ryan LF - what Barouche does not drive in, Ryan will
Zinn 1B - the aging veteran is still productive
Gibson RF - take advantage of his bat but hide his defensive deficiencies
Shakespeare C - you have to have a catcher somewhere. :)
I have the same kinds of questions here about switching positions. How can I put Kommers in at 2B when he's only rated as an outfielder? How can I play Gibson in the OF when he's only rated at 3B and 2B? How can I expect Barouche to play 3B when he's only rated at SS? Why would I even want to put Howard in at SS when he's listed as 3B and Barouche is listed at SS?
I don't think I know what PAs are. ???
Some of these guys will take time to convert to their new positions, but the offense should be outstanding. If you reconfigure your lineup and get Howard the ABs, he will be a B+/A+ vR offensive force for many, many years (though he will be somewhat less effective against LHs...probably B/A). Unless you are getting a couple of young, A overall, stud pitchers, I see no need to trade away Howard plus a first rounder for anything else.
Thanks for the advice. The trade I was offered was for a much better catcher than I've currently got on the team, but from what you're telling me I gather it wouldn't be a great deal to get one player a few years from retirement for a first-round pick and a solid prospect -- even if I'm having trouble finding room on my roster for the prospect. Maybe I should take the deal if we took the first-round draft pick out of the equation.
I'll get back about the other message when I've got a few more minutes to spare.
Thanks again,
Stven
thatrogue
FYI #1: PA = Plate Appearances (ABs plus Walks plus sacrifice flies plus HBP, or basically every time the hitter comes to the plate). Major league Improvement Chances (ICs) are based on PA/10, modified by the cumulative mentoring score for the season.
FYI #2: As you'll see below [url=http://www.simdynasty.com/posgrid.html](or click here)[/url] players convert positions at different rates. The conversions will adversely impact your defense somewhat, however, those players with good range ratings perform better while learning and convert quicker.
On to the info:
Player Ratings [color=red]
92 -100: A+
84 - 91: A
76 - 83: A- [/color][color=blue]
68 - 75: B+
60 - 67: B
52 - 59: B- [/color][color=green]
44 - 51: C+
36 - 43: C
28 - 35: C- [/color][color=orange]
20 - 27: D+
12 - 19: D
04 - 11: D- [/color]
01 - 03: F
MINOR LEAGUE IMPROVEMENTS:
Well I'm not a math genius or a Jeopardy champion but here's how the math works out.
With 15 players in the minors:
There are 324 Improvement chances per season (162 games *2)
There are 15 assigned CPs and 15 invisible CPs for a total of 30.
Thus with 5 CPs on a player he can expect 64.8 ICs over the course of a season (6/30*324)
With 4 CPs a player can expect 54 ICs (5/30*324) over a season
With 3 Cps a player can expect 43.2 ICs (4/30*324) over a season
With 2 CPs a player can expect 32.4 ICs (3/30*324) over a season
With 1 Cp a player can expect 21.6 Ics (2/30*324) over a season
and with 0 CPs a player can expect 10.8 ICs (1/30*324) over a season.
Obviously your conversion rate would also play a factor into whether this was worthwhile. For instance if you're dealing with 17 year old hitters converting at an 80% rate the guy with 5 CPs adds approximately 52 improvements in one year why the guy with 3 Cps adds 34. On the other hand if you're talking about 21 year old B+ pitchers who convert at a 20% or worse rate the guy with 5 CPs converts 13 while the guy with 3 Cps converts 8.
The code looks at all players that have coachpoints assigned to them. It then selects a player based on the amount of points assigned to them (if you have 3 guys with 5 points, it should *pick* them an equal number of times).
Once a guy is picked, it then decides whether or not to give the guy an improvement. The odds of receiving an improvement are based on age. For hitters the conversion odds are this:
20 or younger: 80%
21: 73%
22: 66%
23: 60%
24: 55%
25: 50%
26: 45%
27: 40%
28: 33%
29: 26%
30: 20%
31-33: 10%
>33: 5%
For pitchers, the odds are less because an improvement has a much bigger effect on skills:
20 or younger: 26%
21: 24%
22: 22%
23: 20%
24: 18%
25: 16%
26: 14%
27: 13%
28: 10%
29: 8%
30: 6%
31-33: 3%
>33: 1%
ABE used the same process to target 2 players for improvement per game.
MAJOR LEAGUE IMPROVEMENTS:
Major League Improvements - Off-season
These are the base formulas for improvement chances:
Position players: Plate Appearances / 10
Pitchers (RP and SP) : .15*G + .1*IP + .16 / .1 / .05 / .02 each game based on having appeared in the past 8 / 10/ 12 /15 days
Those formulas are adapted based on your team's mentoring grade on a game-to-game basis.
Chances are converted, however, only in the offseason. Chance of conversion is based upon player age.
Bear in mind, also, that the existing skill level affects improvement chances. For example, a pitcher who has a "B+" control rating is less likely to improve in control than a pitcher with a "C" rating*.
*Now, a player's skill at Power AND contact vs RHP are taken into consideration during this calculation. Power and Contact are grouped together for this calculation. Range and arm are grouped together. Speed is not bundled. Velocity/Control are grouped together. Endurance improvements will still work the same way. In this calculation Power, Control, and Speed are weighted a bit more heavily than their counterparts to recognize that these skills are more important at this time in Sim Dynasty.
For every eight "improves in (a category)" notices you get in your box scores, a player's rating advances 1/3 letter grade in that category (e.g. C- to C). Eight improvements to "Range", for example, for a player with a "C" rating will result in an improvement to a "C+" rating in Range.
What is the best age for major league player improvements?
For major league hitters the best ages for player improvement chances are 22-24.
Here is the pecking order for batter ages. This lists the "best" age to get improvements:
Here are the batters:
1t. 23
1t. 24
3t. 25
3t. 22
5. 26
6. 21
7. 27
8. under 21
9. 28
10. 29
11. 30
12. 31-33
13. over 33
Age - improvements/chances - % converted
20 - 6/11 - 54.55%
21 - 106/178 - 59.55%
22 - 228/347 - 65.71%
23 - 384/516 - 74.42%
24 - 434/661 - 65.66%
25 - 519/931 - 55.75%
26 - 545/1227 - 44.42%
27 - 358/1099 - 32.58%
28 - 123/657 - 18.72%
If you'll notice just about all those numbers (and all of them with enough chances to be fairly certian we have eliminated the majority of statistical abberation) end in something very close to a non-even multiple of 5. This makes me inclined to belive that the real numbers for % converted improvements is
21 - 55%
22 - 65%
23 - 75%
24 - 65%
25 - 55%
26 - 45%
27 - 35%
Below 20 and above 27 seem to fall away from the pattern.
Keep in mind that there are 7 categorys that improvements can come in. Each category needs 8 improvements to go up a FULL letter grade. This means it takes 56 improvements for the overall letter grade to go up a full grade (i.e. from B to B+).
According to the table for improvement conversions for minor leaguers a batter has a 73% chance at 21 to convert improvements. According to this he has a 55% chance to convert improvements in the majors. Assuming 60 chances per year from majors or minors a player will convert 18% fewer, or approximately 11 fewer, chances. This means if you bring a player up at os 21 instead of keeping him in the minors he will ultimately be 11 points lower than he could have been. However 11 out of 56 is only 20% of a single letter grade. If you have someone else needing cp's it might not be so hard to give up 11 improvements to get that other player a full years cp's.
The difference between keeping a player in the minors (*at age 22*) and putting him in the majors is virtually meaningless. He should convert 65% in the majors and 66% in the minors. I think the conventional wisdom of bring a player up at os 24 is perhaps detrimental to a team as the cp's are being wasted since the player could do just as well in the majors. Of course that is dependant on if the team has a better player in the majors, is competing for a title, etc.
**Note**
This data comes from the 1950 season. The average player grade is fairly close to C+. The data for improvements we have is based on the grade being C+. Improvements will come faster for lower graded players and slower for higher graded players. What this all means is that you can not assume your 25 year old B+/B+ vs. righties outfielder will convert 55% of chances in the majors. You can assume that since a 25 year old C+/C+ player would convert 55% in the majors and 50% in the minors (from the improvement table chart) that your B+/B+ player will convert better in the majors than in the minors by a small percentage.
PITCHERS:
For pitchers, it ranks slightly differently
1. 24
2t. 23
2t. 25
4t. 26
4t. 22
6t. 27
6t. 21
8. 28
9. under 21
10. 29
11. 30
12. 31-33
13. over 33
Age - improvements/chances - % converted
18 - 0/5 - 0%
19 - 15/231 - 6.49%
20 - 18/161 - 11.18%
21 - 10/79 - 12.66%
22 - 67/420 - 15.95%
23 - 105/562 - 18.68%
24 - 92/321 - 28.66%
25 - 84/383 - 21.93%
26 - 110/643 - 17.1%
27 - 62/416 - 14.9%
28 - 26/256 - 10.16%
29 - 35/448 - 7.81%
This pretty much agrees with where the sweet spot is from the improvement tables thread. It does give you actual numbers to work with though. The interesting part here is that, according to that improvement thread at age 23 a pitcher has a 20% chance for imporvement in the minors. He's only about 1 to 2 percent less in the majors, which equates to about 1 improvement over the course of a full year if you put 5 cps on the player in the minors. By this information it seems to be ideal to have a pitcher spend his os age 23 year in the majors.
The other interesting thing is at os 22 a pitcher has a 22% chance of converting improvements in the minors. He has a 16% chance in the majors. This equates to 3 converted improvements more in the minors than in the majors. If you have any other players that have the potential to be developed it might be better to have pitchers spend the year they have an os age of 22 in the majors as well. Strictly by averages you'd loose 4 improvements in the age 22 and 23 years by being in the majors over being in the minors. Considering improvements go into three categories (endurance, velocity, and control) you will, on average, loose only 1 or 2 points of velocity and control over keeping him in the minors. Not a lot of loss compared to two years of another player improving perhaps as much as two letter grades in the same time.
Someday I may get around to doing an analysis of percent chance for improvements based on letter grade..but I doubt it, that would be a very time consuming project. I hope this helps you guys.
Newcomer tips
It seems the league has had high turnover and a number of new owners that are relatively new to SD. Maybe some advice from some of us former rookies would help stabilize our league somewhat. I would suggest to those owners with spare time to comb through the "Questions and Answers" section of the message board. Go to the old (and new) posts and read the threads with titles of interest.
Player Development
As Tyson states, this is largely a development game. Your success is directly tied to your ability to obtain and develop players. Once you have the players to compete, managerial skills can put you in the race.
You have to have the ability to see the potential in young players. Everybody wants a blue-chipper, there's just not many of them. A stud without a solid roster around him won't get you anywhere. Develop the whole team. That means some players might be marginal starters, but you still need to fill your positions.
Player improvements occur at different rates depending on the age of the player, his ratings and whether he is in the majors or minors. The current age is used for minor leaguers. Major leaguers get their yearly improvement at the end of the year. Improves are based on their age at that time (12/31).
MINORS: In the minors, CP's (coaching points) are used to develop young players. Check out the Improvement Table in Q&A: 17 to 20 year-olds increase at the highest rate and then it goes down as the age increases. By age 27, there's not much happening. If a player in his early twenties is going to sit on the bench in the majors, it is still better to leave him in your minors unless he's a valuable backup.
Don't spread your CP's around much. The best improvements occur when you put 5 CP's each on three players. Sometimes you can develop 4 or 5 players at a time, but try any more and you won't get a top player out of any of them. Bring down the number of minor leaguers to around 15 to maximize the chance of improvements to the players you want to develop.
Remember that a lower-rated player will gain faster than a higher-rated one because improves are also dependent on the player's current rating in each category. Example: a player rated "A" in speed has a lower probability of an improvement in that category than a player rated "B", with each chance given. Leaving a player rated B+ or higher in the minors won't get you much unless he's a teenager.
MAJORS: Improvements are based on plate appearances for non-pitchers, and innings pitched plus appearances for pitchers. Again, check out the Improvement Table: ages around 23 and 24 produce the highest rates. Older and younger players have lower rates the farther from these ages they are. Age 21 seems to be the point where hitters improve equally in the majors and the minors (with 5 CP's). For pitchers, it's around age 22.
Health impacts major league hitters. A player who has "A+" health can get 200 more PA's than a player with "F" health. That is 40 more improvement chances!
All of these percentages are nice, but what actually happens? Try some of these examples:
I picked up a player from waivers age 17, rated C- with A+ health. I put 5 CP's on him for 5 years and then played him relentlessly until he retired. He became an A- overall player and finished in the top ten in numerous categories.
I used this procedure on a waiver pickup pitcher with "F" control. He eventually was "A-" overall and "B" in control, although he led the league in batters hit.
I was able to invest so much in these players because I had none better to put CP's on. When you're team is crappy, you've got to start somewhere. Think of what you would get with someone 17 rated B-: possibly an MVP or Cy Young. The difficult choices are made when you have too many players developing. I recommend keeping the best and trading the others to those less fortunate.
Absolute dynasties occur when a team gets a pipeline going. That's when he has a stud retiring every year, brings up a prospect every year, and puts 5 CP's on a new draftee every year. Another way is to repeatedly trade aging stars for future studs. It is tough to get the pipeline going. The easiest way is to get lucky in the Initial Draft.
Special note: a few seasons ago the improvement rate for pitchers in the majors was slowed significantly. Too many pitchers were ending up rated A- or higher. Unfortunately, teams developing pitchers in the majors before the change are sitting pretty right now, while teams trying to develop their pitchers now have the slower rates. This inequity will disappear when the previous pitchers retire or degrade. Time will solve this, but for the present I am developing my pitchers in the minors as much as possible.
Defense
Defense in not as important in SimDynasty as in some other baseball simulations but it should not be overlooked. A great hitter with poor fielding ratings is always preferable to a player with great fielding and poor hitting. I would rather have neither.
The ratings for Arm and Range determine the probabilities for defensive success or failure on any given play in the field. The effects of each vary by position, as it does in real-life baseball. When setting up a new team or when drafting, I use the following guidelines for the placement and training of fielders:
C : Must have a decent Arm. An average arm will allow the opposition to have an aggresive running game. A below average arm would be a disaster. I like B+ or better if I'm contending (he'd better be a great hitting catcher if his Arm is B or B-). Range is less of a factor. It seems most catchers lack range (and speed) as found in RL baseball.
1B : Range is important in a firstbaseman, as he usually touches most balls hit in the infield. Arm ratings don't affect very many plays.
2B/SS : These positions should be handled by your best defensive players. They receive the most chances in the field. If necessary, the 2B can survive with a mediocre arm.
3B : Handles fewer balls than any other infielder, therefore, range is less of a factor. A good arm is desirable at this position.
CF : Although all OF's get fewer defensive chances than other fielders, CF should be manned by a player with decent Range because he will have more chances than LF or RF.
LF : Should have your next best Range in the OF. Handles more chances than the RF because there are more right-handed batters. A strong arm is nice.
RF : Handles the ball less than any other player so range is less of a factor. A decent RF arm will prevent many runners from going first-to-third on a single.
SP/RP : Defense is usually not considered. A good Arm rating increases his ability to hold and pick off runners.
You are not restricted to using fielders at their listed positions, but out-of-position players don't perform defensively as well as their ratings indicate. If a fielder is used at a position closely related to their own, the defensive penalties are not too bad (CF or LF playing RF, SS playing 2B, etc). If they are thrown into a totally different type of position, they will take a bigger hit in abilities (LF at SS, non-catcher at C, etc.).
Many owners convert fielders to other positions for various reasons. As the fielder plays games at a new position, they gain familiarity in that spot. Their progress is noted in the Alt Pos (alternative position) portion of their player card. As the Alt Pos rating increases from F to A+, the out-of-position penalties decrease. When an A++ rating (100%) is reached, his nominal position changes to that new position. He can still play effectively at his old position, but the Alt Pos rating (for his original location) will gradually decrease if he isn't used there.
The following link is a chart that can be used to gauge the playing time necessary to convert to new positions. It can also be used to estimate the defensive penalties while playing in an alternate position.
POSITION COVERSIONS
This grid should be read from left to right. So to read the first row, you should say "It should be MEDIUM for a Catcher to become a FirstBaseman, It should be Hard for a Catcher to become a SecondBaseman, etc.
Here's a key on the terms and what I take them to mean. Playing time refers to how long the player has to play there before the new position becomes his Natural Position.
E = Easy - He should be able to play with little or no training. (2-3 weeks playing time).
M = Medium - Its a natural position movement, but takes some time to adjust (2-3 months playing time).
H = Hard - Not your typical position move, but not completely out of the question (12-18 months playing time).
VH = Very Hard - Its ridiculous that a guy could make this switch. (4-5 years playing time).
X = He already plays this position.
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/posgrid.html]Click here to properly view this chart[/url]
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/oldforum-viewthread.jsp?tid=95371]Click here for a listing of important informational threads[/url]
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/oldforum-viewthread.jsp?tid=125548]Click here for Bart's response in the improvement question thread[/url]
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/oldforum-viewthread.jsp?tid=54192]Click here for udale's important advice for new players[/url]
Since I can't address all of your questions right this minute...
June 06, 2007 at 06:41PM View BBCode
I'll paste some great information (my official SD cheat sheet) that I started compiling into a word document when I first joined. Bart answered a question of mine which led me to some of this data, and the rest has been compiled from other threads. It is a looooooonnnngggg read, but will answer many of the questions you posed:FYI #1: PA = Plate Appearances (ABs plus Walks plus sacrifice flies plus HBP, or basically every time the hitter comes to the plate). Major league Improvement Chances (ICs) are based on PA/10, modified by the cumulative mentoring score for the season.
FYI #2: As you'll see below [url=http://www.simdynasty.com/posgrid.html](or click here)[/url] players convert positions at different rates. The conversions will adversely impact your defense somewhat, however, those players with good range ratings perform better while learning and convert quicker.
On to the info:
Player Ratings [color=red]
92 -100: A+
84 - 91: A
76 - 83: A- [/color][color=blue]
68 - 75: B+
60 - 67: B
52 - 59: B- [/color][color=green]
44 - 51: C+
36 - 43: C
28 - 35: C- [/color][color=orange]
20 - 27: D+
12 - 19: D
04 - 11: D- [/color]
01 - 03: F
MINOR LEAGUE IMPROVEMENTS:
Well I'm not a math genius or a Jeopardy champion but here's how the math works out.
With 15 players in the minors:
There are 324 Improvement chances per season (162 games *2)
There are 15 assigned CPs and 15 invisible CPs for a total of 30.
Thus with 5 CPs on a player he can expect 64.8 ICs over the course of a season (6/30*324)
With 4 CPs a player can expect 54 ICs (5/30*324) over a season
With 3 Cps a player can expect 43.2 ICs (4/30*324) over a season
With 2 CPs a player can expect 32.4 ICs (3/30*324) over a season
With 1 Cp a player can expect 21.6 Ics (2/30*324) over a season
and with 0 CPs a player can expect 10.8 ICs (1/30*324) over a season.
Obviously your conversion rate would also play a factor into whether this was worthwhile. For instance if you're dealing with 17 year old hitters converting at an 80% rate the guy with 5 CPs adds approximately 52 improvements in one year why the guy with 3 Cps adds 34. On the other hand if you're talking about 21 year old B+ pitchers who convert at a 20% or worse rate the guy with 5 CPs converts 13 while the guy with 3 Cps converts 8.
The code looks at all players that have coachpoints assigned to them. It then selects a player based on the amount of points assigned to them (if you have 3 guys with 5 points, it should *pick* them an equal number of times).
Once a guy is picked, it then decides whether or not to give the guy an improvement. The odds of receiving an improvement are based on age. For hitters the conversion odds are this:
20 or younger: 80%
21: 73%
22: 66%
23: 60%
24: 55%
25: 50%
26: 45%
27: 40%
28: 33%
29: 26%
30: 20%
31-33: 10%
>33: 5%
For pitchers, the odds are less because an improvement has a much bigger effect on skills:
20 or younger: 26%
21: 24%
22: 22%
23: 20%
24: 18%
25: 16%
26: 14%
27: 13%
28: 10%
29: 8%
30: 6%
31-33: 3%
>33: 1%
ABE used the same process to target 2 players for improvement per game.
MAJOR LEAGUE IMPROVEMENTS:
Major League Improvements - Off-season
These are the base formulas for improvement chances:
Position players: Plate Appearances / 10
Pitchers (RP and SP) : .15*G + .1*IP + .16 / .1 / .05 / .02 each game based on having appeared in the past 8 / 10/ 12 /15 days
Those formulas are adapted based on your team's mentoring grade on a game-to-game basis.
Chances are converted, however, only in the offseason. Chance of conversion is based upon player age.
Bear in mind, also, that the existing skill level affects improvement chances. For example, a pitcher who has a "B+" control rating is less likely to improve in control than a pitcher with a "C" rating*.
*Now, a player's skill at Power AND contact vs RHP are taken into consideration during this calculation. Power and Contact are grouped together for this calculation. Range and arm are grouped together. Speed is not bundled. Velocity/Control are grouped together. Endurance improvements will still work the same way. In this calculation Power, Control, and Speed are weighted a bit more heavily than their counterparts to recognize that these skills are more important at this time in Sim Dynasty.
For every eight "improves in (a category)" notices you get in your box scores, a player's rating advances 1/3 letter grade in that category (e.g. C- to C). Eight improvements to "Range", for example, for a player with a "C" rating will result in an improvement to a "C+" rating in Range.
What is the best age for major league player improvements?
For major league hitters the best ages for player improvement chances are 22-24.
Here is the pecking order for batter ages. This lists the "best" age to get improvements:
Here are the batters:
1t. 23
1t. 24
3t. 25
3t. 22
5. 26
6. 21
7. 27
8. under 21
9. 28
10. 29
11. 30
12. 31-33
13. over 33
Age - improvements/chances - % converted
20 - 6/11 - 54.55%
21 - 106/178 - 59.55%
22 - 228/347 - 65.71%
23 - 384/516 - 74.42%
24 - 434/661 - 65.66%
25 - 519/931 - 55.75%
26 - 545/1227 - 44.42%
27 - 358/1099 - 32.58%
28 - 123/657 - 18.72%
If you'll notice just about all those numbers (and all of them with enough chances to be fairly certian we have eliminated the majority of statistical abberation) end in something very close to a non-even multiple of 5. This makes me inclined to belive that the real numbers for % converted improvements is
21 - 55%
22 - 65%
23 - 75%
24 - 65%
25 - 55%
26 - 45%
27 - 35%
Below 20 and above 27 seem to fall away from the pattern.
Keep in mind that there are 7 categorys that improvements can come in. Each category needs 8 improvements to go up a FULL letter grade. This means it takes 56 improvements for the overall letter grade to go up a full grade (i.e. from B to B+).
According to the table for improvement conversions for minor leaguers a batter has a 73% chance at 21 to convert improvements. According to this he has a 55% chance to convert improvements in the majors. Assuming 60 chances per year from majors or minors a player will convert 18% fewer, or approximately 11 fewer, chances. This means if you bring a player up at os 21 instead of keeping him in the minors he will ultimately be 11 points lower than he could have been. However 11 out of 56 is only 20% of a single letter grade. If you have someone else needing cp's it might not be so hard to give up 11 improvements to get that other player a full years cp's.
The difference between keeping a player in the minors (*at age 22*) and putting him in the majors is virtually meaningless. He should convert 65% in the majors and 66% in the minors. I think the conventional wisdom of bring a player up at os 24 is perhaps detrimental to a team as the cp's are being wasted since the player could do just as well in the majors. Of course that is dependant on if the team has a better player in the majors, is competing for a title, etc.
**Note**
This data comes from the 1950 season. The average player grade is fairly close to C+. The data for improvements we have is based on the grade being C+. Improvements will come faster for lower graded players and slower for higher graded players. What this all means is that you can not assume your 25 year old B+/B+ vs. righties outfielder will convert 55% of chances in the majors. You can assume that since a 25 year old C+/C+ player would convert 55% in the majors and 50% in the minors (from the improvement table chart) that your B+/B+ player will convert better in the majors than in the minors by a small percentage.
PITCHERS:
For pitchers, it ranks slightly differently
1. 24
2t. 23
2t. 25
4t. 26
4t. 22
6t. 27
6t. 21
8. 28
9. under 21
10. 29
11. 30
12. 31-33
13. over 33
Age - improvements/chances - % converted
18 - 0/5 - 0%
19 - 15/231 - 6.49%
20 - 18/161 - 11.18%
21 - 10/79 - 12.66%
22 - 67/420 - 15.95%
23 - 105/562 - 18.68%
24 - 92/321 - 28.66%
25 - 84/383 - 21.93%
26 - 110/643 - 17.1%
27 - 62/416 - 14.9%
28 - 26/256 - 10.16%
29 - 35/448 - 7.81%
This pretty much agrees with where the sweet spot is from the improvement tables thread. It does give you actual numbers to work with though. The interesting part here is that, according to that improvement thread at age 23 a pitcher has a 20% chance for imporvement in the minors. He's only about 1 to 2 percent less in the majors, which equates to about 1 improvement over the course of a full year if you put 5 cps on the player in the minors. By this information it seems to be ideal to have a pitcher spend his os age 23 year in the majors.
The other interesting thing is at os 22 a pitcher has a 22% chance of converting improvements in the minors. He has a 16% chance in the majors. This equates to 3 converted improvements more in the minors than in the majors. If you have any other players that have the potential to be developed it might be better to have pitchers spend the year they have an os age of 22 in the majors as well. Strictly by averages you'd loose 4 improvements in the age 22 and 23 years by being in the majors over being in the minors. Considering improvements go into three categories (endurance, velocity, and control) you will, on average, loose only 1 or 2 points of velocity and control over keeping him in the minors. Not a lot of loss compared to two years of another player improving perhaps as much as two letter grades in the same time.
Someday I may get around to doing an analysis of percent chance for improvements based on letter grade..but I doubt it, that would be a very time consuming project. I hope this helps you guys.
Newcomer tips
It seems the league has had high turnover and a number of new owners that are relatively new to SD. Maybe some advice from some of us former rookies would help stabilize our league somewhat. I would suggest to those owners with spare time to comb through the "Questions and Answers" section of the message board. Go to the old (and new) posts and read the threads with titles of interest.
Player Development
As Tyson states, this is largely a development game. Your success is directly tied to your ability to obtain and develop players. Once you have the players to compete, managerial skills can put you in the race.
You have to have the ability to see the potential in young players. Everybody wants a blue-chipper, there's just not many of them. A stud without a solid roster around him won't get you anywhere. Develop the whole team. That means some players might be marginal starters, but you still need to fill your positions.
Player improvements occur at different rates depending on the age of the player, his ratings and whether he is in the majors or minors. The current age is used for minor leaguers. Major leaguers get their yearly improvement at the end of the year. Improves are based on their age at that time (12/31).
MINORS: In the minors, CP's (coaching points) are used to develop young players. Check out the Improvement Table in Q&A: 17 to 20 year-olds increase at the highest rate and then it goes down as the age increases. By age 27, there's not much happening. If a player in his early twenties is going to sit on the bench in the majors, it is still better to leave him in your minors unless he's a valuable backup.
Don't spread your CP's around much. The best improvements occur when you put 5 CP's each on three players. Sometimes you can develop 4 or 5 players at a time, but try any more and you won't get a top player out of any of them. Bring down the number of minor leaguers to around 15 to maximize the chance of improvements to the players you want to develop.
Remember that a lower-rated player will gain faster than a higher-rated one because improves are also dependent on the player's current rating in each category. Example: a player rated "A" in speed has a lower probability of an improvement in that category than a player rated "B", with each chance given. Leaving a player rated B+ or higher in the minors won't get you much unless he's a teenager.
MAJORS: Improvements are based on plate appearances for non-pitchers, and innings pitched plus appearances for pitchers. Again, check out the Improvement Table: ages around 23 and 24 produce the highest rates. Older and younger players have lower rates the farther from these ages they are. Age 21 seems to be the point where hitters improve equally in the majors and the minors (with 5 CP's). For pitchers, it's around age 22.
Health impacts major league hitters. A player who has "A+" health can get 200 more PA's than a player with "F" health. That is 40 more improvement chances!
All of these percentages are nice, but what actually happens? Try some of these examples:
I picked up a player from waivers age 17, rated C- with A+ health. I put 5 CP's on him for 5 years and then played him relentlessly until he retired. He became an A- overall player and finished in the top ten in numerous categories.
I used this procedure on a waiver pickup pitcher with "F" control. He eventually was "A-" overall and "B" in control, although he led the league in batters hit.
I was able to invest so much in these players because I had none better to put CP's on. When you're team is crappy, you've got to start somewhere. Think of what you would get with someone 17 rated B-: possibly an MVP or Cy Young. The difficult choices are made when you have too many players developing. I recommend keeping the best and trading the others to those less fortunate.
Absolute dynasties occur when a team gets a pipeline going. That's when he has a stud retiring every year, brings up a prospect every year, and puts 5 CP's on a new draftee every year. Another way is to repeatedly trade aging stars for future studs. It is tough to get the pipeline going. The easiest way is to get lucky in the Initial Draft.
Special note: a few seasons ago the improvement rate for pitchers in the majors was slowed significantly. Too many pitchers were ending up rated A- or higher. Unfortunately, teams developing pitchers in the majors before the change are sitting pretty right now, while teams trying to develop their pitchers now have the slower rates. This inequity will disappear when the previous pitchers retire or degrade. Time will solve this, but for the present I am developing my pitchers in the minors as much as possible.
Defense
Defense in not as important in SimDynasty as in some other baseball simulations but it should not be overlooked. A great hitter with poor fielding ratings is always preferable to a player with great fielding and poor hitting. I would rather have neither.
The ratings for Arm and Range determine the probabilities for defensive success or failure on any given play in the field. The effects of each vary by position, as it does in real-life baseball. When setting up a new team or when drafting, I use the following guidelines for the placement and training of fielders:
C : Must have a decent Arm. An average arm will allow the opposition to have an aggresive running game. A below average arm would be a disaster. I like B+ or better if I'm contending (he'd better be a great hitting catcher if his Arm is B or B-). Range is less of a factor. It seems most catchers lack range (and speed) as found in RL baseball.
1B : Range is important in a firstbaseman, as he usually touches most balls hit in the infield. Arm ratings don't affect very many plays.
2B/SS : These positions should be handled by your best defensive players. They receive the most chances in the field. If necessary, the 2B can survive with a mediocre arm.
3B : Handles fewer balls than any other infielder, therefore, range is less of a factor. A good arm is desirable at this position.
CF : Although all OF's get fewer defensive chances than other fielders, CF should be manned by a player with decent Range because he will have more chances than LF or RF.
LF : Should have your next best Range in the OF. Handles more chances than the RF because there are more right-handed batters. A strong arm is nice.
RF : Handles the ball less than any other player so range is less of a factor. A decent RF arm will prevent many runners from going first-to-third on a single.
SP/RP : Defense is usually not considered. A good Arm rating increases his ability to hold and pick off runners.
You are not restricted to using fielders at their listed positions, but out-of-position players don't perform defensively as well as their ratings indicate. If a fielder is used at a position closely related to their own, the defensive penalties are not too bad (CF or LF playing RF, SS playing 2B, etc). If they are thrown into a totally different type of position, they will take a bigger hit in abilities (LF at SS, non-catcher at C, etc.).
Many owners convert fielders to other positions for various reasons. As the fielder plays games at a new position, they gain familiarity in that spot. Their progress is noted in the Alt Pos (alternative position) portion of their player card. As the Alt Pos rating increases from F to A+, the out-of-position penalties decrease. When an A++ rating (100%) is reached, his nominal position changes to that new position. He can still play effectively at his old position, but the Alt Pos rating (for his original location) will gradually decrease if he isn't used there.
The following link is a chart that can be used to gauge the playing time necessary to convert to new positions. It can also be used to estimate the defensive penalties while playing in an alternate position.
POSITION COVERSIONS
This grid should be read from left to right. So to read the first row, you should say "It should be MEDIUM for a Catcher to become a FirstBaseman, It should be Hard for a Catcher to become a SecondBaseman, etc.
Here's a key on the terms and what I take them to mean. Playing time refers to how long the player has to play there before the new position becomes his Natural Position.
E = Easy - He should be able to play with little or no training. (2-3 weeks playing time).
M = Medium - Its a natural position movement, but takes some time to adjust (2-3 months playing time).
H = Hard - Not your typical position move, but not completely out of the question (12-18 months playing time).
VH = Very Hard - Its ridiculous that a guy could make this switch. (4-5 years playing time).
X = He already plays this position.
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/posgrid.html]Click here to properly view this chart[/url]
To C To 1B To 2B To 3B To SS To LF To CF To RF
From C X M H H VH M VH M
From 1B VH X H H VH M VH M
From 2B VH M X M M M H M
From 3B VH M M X H M VH M
From SS VH M E M X M M M
From LF VH M M H VH X M E
From CF VH M M H VH E X E
From RF VH M M H VH E M X
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/oldforum-viewthread.jsp?tid=95371]Click here for a listing of important informational threads[/url]
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/oldforum-viewthread.jsp?tid=125548]Click here for Bart's response in the improvement question thread[/url]
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/oldforum-viewthread.jsp?tid=54192]Click here for udale's important advice for new players[/url]
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