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Admin

Plus/Minus Defense System - could affect your strategy

April 13, 2007 at 08:36PM View BBCode

We have nearly completed a new system on beta in regards to Defense. In the next few weeks, we should have some numbers to share with you.

I am calling this the Plus/Minus system. Previous names for this project (from chats mostly) include Improved Defensive Importance and the Simplified Grid System.

Plus/Minus System
The way it works is that your defensive players' skills will have an impact on a small percentage of hits and outs, thereby changing some plays that used to be hits into outs (for good fielders), and some plays that used to be outs into hits (for bad fielders).

Along with other newly added Defensive statistics, these will be tracked for you to see under the category of +/-. You will also see notes in the boxscore for these. A "Plus Play" will say something like, "Joe Smith grounds out to the shortstop - great play by the shortstop!". A "Minus Play" will either say, "Joe Smith singles past the second baseman" or "Joe Smith singles on an infield hit to the third baseman".

Ground Ball Dispersion
Besides that, I have made some changes to the dispersion of ground balls around the infield to more closely resemble MLB data. There will also be slightly less ground balls than in the past (about 2% less), due to some adjustments made to the Groundball/flyball ratio.

The net-net to all of this, as it pertains to strategy, is that because of the Plus/Minus system Defense will be more important. We are still nailing down the exact percentage of batted balls that will be affected by this change, but it should resemble MLB fairly closely. For example, the difference between the best legitimate 3B and worse legitimate 3B in the league should be about 50-60 plus/minus plays per season.

Also because of the Groundball Ratios, in relative terms the 3B should get slightly more ground balls and SS/2B will get slighly less ground balls than they do today.

These changes will be moved into place around May 10th-13th time frame. In between Dynasty seasons.

Let me know if you have any quesitons. There are tons of other changes coming as well, but this is the only one that seems to pertain to strategy.

Tyson

[Edited on 4-13-2007 by Admin]

[Edited on 4-13-2007 by Admin]
dirtdevil

April 13, 2007 at 09:24PM View BBCode

how will this change take effect in private and speed leagues? do the changes take effect immediately on May 10th in mid-season, or will they come in at the start of the first season beginning after may 10? or do they need a league vote to be implemented or something? either way, the heads up is appreciated. and i really love the idea!
Bone-Scorpion

April 13, 2007 at 09:32PM View BBCode

Is this going to effect receiving the ball as well? A 1b should have +/- towards balls thrown to him. In other words saving errors from poor armed players should hopefully be effected as well in some regard.
drew

April 13, 2007 at 09:33PM View BBCode

Originally posted by Admin
thereby changing some plays that used to be outs into hits (for good fielders), and some plays that used to be outs into singles (for bad fielders).


I presume the bold is backwards.
Admin

April 13, 2007 at 09:37PM View BBCode

dirtdevil - it will be immediate. I will post the exact date and time in early May.

Bone - that may come later, but it is not there yet. It seems logical, but there isn't much SABR data to back it up and say how often it should happen.

Tyson
Admin

April 13, 2007 at 10:29PM View BBCode

The discussion on position changing in the minors has been moved here:

http://www.simdynasty.com/oldforum-viewthread.jsp?tid=135013

Tyson
JimBlaine

April 14, 2007 at 02:37AM View BBCode

Will this have any bearing on outfield defense?
BigMacAttack

April 14, 2007 at 02:25PM View BBCode

Is there going to be some way for us to track the number of plus/minus plays a fileder makes, short of watching/reading every box score?

This could eventually work into Gold Gloves and possibly even "cement gloves" for the worst fielders

[Edited on 4-14-2007 by BigMacAttack]
lvnwrth

April 14, 2007 at 02:44PM View BBCode

Originally posted by Admin
dirtdevil - it will be immediate. I will post the exact date and time in early May.

Bone - that may come later, but it is not there yet. It seems logical, but there isn't much SABR data to back it up and say how often it should happen.

Tyson


Tyson,

FYI...here's one short examination on the issue of infield throwing errors prevented by a good first baseman. Not suggesting you do anything with it at this time, but you might want to bookmark it for future use.
Closer

April 14, 2007 at 04:01PM View BBCode

Am i missing something here lvnwrth....
I don't see any hypertext to a "short examination".
lvnwrth

April 14, 2007 at 04:05PM View BBCode

Originally posted by Closer
Am i missing something here lvnwrth....
I don't see any hypertext to a "short examination".


No...the only thing missing was my brain!

Try this:

http://baseballevolution.com/keith/overbay.html

[Edited on 4-14-2007 by lvnwrth]
Admin

April 14, 2007 at 05:44PM View BBCode

Jim - yes, outfield defense will turn some outs into doubles and vice versa.

Bigmac - yes, we are tracking plus and minus plays and you can see them on the defensive stats pages. I agree, Gold Gloves could come in the future, might be a neat thing to add at some point but it's not a priority yet.

lvnwrth - thanks for the link. Looks like a good methodology.

Tyson

[Edited on 4-14-2007 by Admin]
lvnwrth

April 14, 2007 at 05:49PM View BBCode

Tyson,

How much impact do baserunner speed and OF arm have on baserunning advancements right now?

Do they matter at all, or is the play result based entirely on the base hit itself?

Will OF arm matter in the Plus/Minus system?
Admin

April 14, 2007 at 05:52PM View BBCode

Currently, baserunner advancement is based on the baserunner speed. Except for Sac Fly situations with also accounts for outfield arm.

I can't see how OF arm would play into the plus/minus system as I currently have it. Once we add "Stretching', it will come into play. Let's table that discussion for now.

Tyson
Closer

April 14, 2007 at 06:45PM View BBCode

2 sides to the coin. Can be good and bad at the same time. Interesting.
BigMacAttack

April 14, 2007 at 06:45PM View BBCode

thanks for the answers Tyson.
lvnwrth

April 14, 2007 at 06:50PM View BBCode

Originally posted by Admin
Currently, baserunner advancement is based on the baserunner speed. Except for Sac Fly situations with also accounts for outfield arm.

I can't see how OF arm would play into the plus/minus system as I currently have it. Once we add "Stretching', it will come into play. Let's table that discussion for now.

Tyson


Okay.
rnznsmn

April 14, 2007 at 07:31PM View BBCode

Originally posted by Admin
Jim - yes, outfield defense will turn some outs into doubles and vice versa.

[Edited on 4-14-2007 by Admin]


Tyson,
How about turning doubles into triples and vice versa?
rnznsmn

April 14, 2007 at 07:31PM View BBCode

Tyson,
Did you do anything with catcher defense as you made these adjustments?
Admin

April 14, 2007 at 07:57PM View BBCode

I don't have good MLB data for turning doubles into triples, we won't have that yet. IMO, the meat of this change will be turning outs into doubles and vice versa. This will force you to consider OF defense in some capacity. Turning doubles into triples would be a part of the Stretching project.

Catchers will field less ground balls, based on revised MLB data I put into the sim. Other than that, I can't think of any ways catchers might be affected by the changes.

Tyson

[Edited on 4-14-2007 by Admin]
barterer2002

April 14, 2007 at 08:27PM View BBCode

Tyson, I'm noticing in the beta testing that there is a lot more minus than plus. In fact, at the moment, every team is recording a minus, ranging from -2 to -13. Now I'm not saying that this is a bad thing but the question is whether it is intentionally providing more poor fielding plays than good plays or if its not counting them or if there is some other factor at work here.
max_fischer

April 15, 2007 at 12:16AM View BBCode

Originally posted by barterer2002
Tyson, I'm noticing in the beta testing that there is a lot more minus than plus. In fact, at the moment, every team is recording a minus, ranging from -2 to -13. Now I'm not saying that this is a bad thing but the question is whether it is intentionally providing more poor fielding plays than good plays or if its not counting them or if there is some other factor at work here.


Maybe SD owners are just used to playing subpar defensive players?

Tyson, I think this improvement has the potential to be fantastic. Thanks.
Ronin2

"Stretching"

April 15, 2007 at 12:52AM View BBCode

"Stretching". What would this entail?
shutout1277

April 15, 2007 at 12:57AM View BBCode

Originally posted by Ronin2
"Stretching". What would this entail?


He means "stretching" singles into doubles, and doubles into triples.
Admin

April 15, 2007 at 02:35AM View BBCode

bart - see the post in Beta News. I still need to spend more time on the math yet, it's one of the 5 tasks in this area I still need to iron out.

Tyson

[Edited on 4-15-2007 by Admin]

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