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FuriousGiorge
Matt Leinart was, at worst, the second best quarterback in the country last year. He was almost certainly the best quarterback the year before. Young's track record as a great quarterback runs one year plus one extra bowl (the 2005 Rose Bowl) - before that game and this past season, he was universally regarded as a maddeningly inconsistant player who couldn't harness his incredible talent. Meanwhile, Leinart was winning the Heisman. There is no reason to think that Young's ceiling is higher than Leinart's - Leinart is just as capable of improving his game as Young, and he has two years worth of a track record proving how good he is. I can understand the Titans going for Young, given the McNair factor, although I think it's clearly the wrong move to gamble on a quarterback's "potential" rather than taking the guy with the longer track record of success. But how in the hell can the Jets, the Raiders, the Bills and the Lions pass this guy over (word has it the Cardinals would take him at 10)? Chad Pennington is D-U-N done - the Jets should consider it a gift from the gods to land a quarterback of Leinart's talents at #4. Needless to say, the same goes for the other teams. Carson Palmer came out of the same system and was not as good in college as Leinart (although he was obviously pretty damn good too) - he was picked #1 and is well on his way (injuries notwithstanding) to becoming a superstar. Teams out-think themselves way too much.
NFL Draft
April 28, 2006 at 07:40PM View BBCode
No, I don't watch this non-event. You can tell me the results on Monday. Still, it's hard to avoid the constant ESPN-led barrage of information and misinformation about who's going where. My question is this: what the hell is going on with Matt Leinart? The buzz has him dropping out of the top 5, maybe out of the top 10. I don't get this. They say Tennessee is leaning towards Vince Young. Now, you can make a case that Young was the best quarterback in college last year - he had phenomenal passing numbers, he obviously can hurt you with his ability to run and he came up huge in the biggest game of the year. But I don't hear anyone talking about those things - all anyone wants to discuss about Young is his size, arm strength and "potential". Leinart gets painted with the "most polished" brush which is of course draft codespeak for "he'll never get any better than he is now".Matt Leinart was, at worst, the second best quarterback in the country last year. He was almost certainly the best quarterback the year before. Young's track record as a great quarterback runs one year plus one extra bowl (the 2005 Rose Bowl) - before that game and this past season, he was universally regarded as a maddeningly inconsistant player who couldn't harness his incredible talent. Meanwhile, Leinart was winning the Heisman. There is no reason to think that Young's ceiling is higher than Leinart's - Leinart is just as capable of improving his game as Young, and he has two years worth of a track record proving how good he is. I can understand the Titans going for Young, given the McNair factor, although I think it's clearly the wrong move to gamble on a quarterback's "potential" rather than taking the guy with the longer track record of success. But how in the hell can the Jets, the Raiders, the Bills and the Lions pass this guy over (word has it the Cardinals would take him at 10)? Chad Pennington is D-U-N done - the Jets should consider it a gift from the gods to land a quarterback of Leinart's talents at #4. Needless to say, the same goes for the other teams. Carson Palmer came out of the same system and was not as good in college as Leinart (although he was obviously pretty damn good too) - he was picked #1 and is well on his way (injuries notwithstanding) to becoming a superstar. Teams out-think themselves way too much.
TimSchere
The Titans, in particular, can't take him, because he'll get killed back there. They stink.
April 28, 2006 at 07:43PM View BBCode
meh. Have you seen Leinart throw the ball? Did you see him get his bell rung in the Notre Dame game? I think he's going to be a bust. He doesn't have the physical skills to be a top-flight NFL QB.The Titans, in particular, can't take him, because he'll get killed back there. They stink.
FuriousGiorge
April 28, 2006 at 07:51PM View BBCode
And yet, he had enough physical skills to be one of the best college quarterbacks in the country, perhaps all-time, by doing exactly what NFL teams expect from their quarterbacks - delivering the ball accurately and on-time to his receivers. It's not like he has a Danny Wuerffel arm, his arm strength might not be spectacular but it's certainly good enough for the NFL. This isn't David Carr we're talking about, a guy who had a pretty good college career with decent but not spectacular teams, who got picked at #1 because the team decided on picking a quarterback before the draft and he was the best one out there. This is a guy who put in two Heisman-level seasons at the highest level of college football. Leinart was considered the lock #1 QB picked in the draft before the college season started, and I can't find one reason why that should have changed except that scouts and teams always end up nitpicking guys once they've been around long enough.
John61983
I like Leinert, he's smart (well relatively), he's a team guy who stayed on an extra year to play football to try and win another title, and he makes his teammates better. Their will be 4 offensive USC players in the first round. Past QB's in the Carrol/USC system have excelled in the NFL and I think Leinert is probably the best and most prepared QB, not the most talented, to come out of the system. The guy was studying NFL films in the end of his college career and not to mention he would have been the #1 pick in last years draft. For a QB out of college he is the most sure thing their is.
To me Young smells a little Leafish. I'm not discounting what he did for the Texans to win the title, he was amazing. But in the NFL one player can't just dominate, Vick would have already done it. His physical talents are amazing but like Giorge said he's inconsistent and thats a truly scary thing to have especially in the NFL. Texas isn't really known for it QB's. The only one I can think of recently is Chris Simms and that isn't that impressive. His mechanics need major improvements and the Texan system is Shotgunish not pro-style. Also I never really liked his judgement on the field, he would break out of the pocket too early or force plays. Also did anyone mention the wonderlic test? Young could be quite good but it'll take years to develop him into his full potential and most teams don't do that esp. when you have to pay a QB in the first rnd that kind of money.
April 28, 2006 at 08:47PM View BBCode
I agree with you Giorge on so many counts. I hate the draft it is a non-event that becomes a two day TV event. The added bonus is ESPN barrages us with all day draft TV shows an entire week before the draft, where the biggest question become "Will Bush be taken #1?" I almost forgot its NBA/NHL playoff season. But as for your quarterbacks.I like Leinert, he's smart (well relatively), he's a team guy who stayed on an extra year to play football to try and win another title, and he makes his teammates better. Their will be 4 offensive USC players in the first round. Past QB's in the Carrol/USC system have excelled in the NFL and I think Leinert is probably the best and most prepared QB, not the most talented, to come out of the system. The guy was studying NFL films in the end of his college career and not to mention he would have been the #1 pick in last years draft. For a QB out of college he is the most sure thing their is.
To me Young smells a little Leafish. I'm not discounting what he did for the Texans to win the title, he was amazing. But in the NFL one player can't just dominate, Vick would have already done it. His physical talents are amazing but like Giorge said he's inconsistent and thats a truly scary thing to have especially in the NFL. Texas isn't really known for it QB's. The only one I can think of recently is Chris Simms and that isn't that impressive. His mechanics need major improvements and the Texan system is Shotgunish not pro-style. Also I never really liked his judgement on the field, he would break out of the pocket too early or force plays. Also did anyone mention the wonderlic test? Young could be quite good but it'll take years to develop him into his full potential and most teams don't do that esp. when you have to pay a QB in the first rnd that kind of money.
lvnwrth
Young is a better athlete than either Leinart or Cutler. But he does almost nothing that you expect of an NFL QB at this point in his development. He throws sidearm, he doesn't stand in the pocket, he doesn't read coverages. The system he was in in college didn't ask him to do those things, so he could learn them. And if he does, he'll be the best QB in this draft. But what if he doesn't learn them? Of Leinart, Cutler, and Young, I think Young has the biggest upside, but he also has the best chance to be a complete NFL bust.
Here's my guess (and if I were a betting man, absolutely WOULD NOT put a single dime on this):
Young to Tennessee at #3
Leinart to NY Jets at #4
Cutler to Arizona at #10
[Edited on 4-28-2006 by lvnwrth]
April 28, 2006 at 09:30PM View BBCode
Funny that you think Young smells "Leafish". I was going to say the same thing about Leafart...er, Leinart. I'm not sure why Leinart's stock is dropping. I know why Cutler's is rising. And I don't think young is as "Leafish" as he is "Akili Smithish"...a great athlete who had one really good season as a college QB.Young is a better athlete than either Leinart or Cutler. But he does almost nothing that you expect of an NFL QB at this point in his development. He throws sidearm, he doesn't stand in the pocket, he doesn't read coverages. The system he was in in college didn't ask him to do those things, so he could learn them. And if he does, he'll be the best QB in this draft. But what if he doesn't learn them? Of Leinart, Cutler, and Young, I think Young has the biggest upside, but he also has the best chance to be a complete NFL bust.
Here's my guess (and if I were a betting man, absolutely WOULD NOT put a single dime on this):
Young to Tennessee at #3
Leinart to NY Jets at #4
Cutler to Arizona at #10
[Edited on 4-28-2006 by lvnwrth]
John61983
April 28, 2006 at 09:42PM View BBCode
yah I rebute my previous statement... Akilismith-ish is a far better comparison for Young. But you got my point the guy could be a complete bust. I just don't see him ever being a good quality dependable run of the mill QB. He'll be a star or a bust. I don't see middle ground for this guy.
FuriousGiorge
This goes to the heart of the point I was making. I didn't really want to make a Leinart/Young comparison, although I admit that I pretty much did. I think it's entirely possible that both will be good NFL players, and that is a much more likely scenario than either of them being gigantic busts.
My point was this - Young's "potential", which is essentially all anyone discusses when they talk about him, is for all intents and purposes irrelevant. Sure he could become a superstar in the NFL, could be a better QB than Leinart or Palmer or Tom Brady, but by what criteria do you determine that his "upside" is higher than Leinart's? Because he's taller? Throws farther? Because his ass looks better in football pants?
Personally, I blame the NBA. In the NBA draft, at least for the last decade, teams have been drafting high school and foreign players, where there wasn't anything to them BUT nebulous ideas of upside. And you couldn't afford to simply pass over them for polished college guys, because if you miss out on a Garnett or a Kobe your fans crucify you for not having any vision. And they're right, because you're better off drafting an 18 year old who can be a superstar than a 21 year old who will max out at 15/9.
But in the NFL it's different. You are picking exclusively among people who have already spent at least two years playing against the top competition among their age group, in games that are televised across the country and taken just as seriously as the pro games that are played the next day. You have a world of information about how each and every player performs against this competition. You don't have to rely on "upside" - you have reams of data about actual performance. So why would an NFL team, given the choice between a guy with a spotless college track record and a guy with several flaws on his, pick the flawed guy simply because they have divined he has the potential to be better? Me, I'll take the guy with the credentials over Mr. Upside every time.
April 28, 2006 at 09:50PM View BBCode
Originally posted by lvnwrth
Of Leinart, Cutler, and Young, I think Young has the biggest upside, but he also has the best chance to be a complete NFL bust.
This goes to the heart of the point I was making. I didn't really want to make a Leinart/Young comparison, although I admit that I pretty much did. I think it's entirely possible that both will be good NFL players, and that is a much more likely scenario than either of them being gigantic busts.
My point was this - Young's "potential", which is essentially all anyone discusses when they talk about him, is for all intents and purposes irrelevant. Sure he could become a superstar in the NFL, could be a better QB than Leinart or Palmer or Tom Brady, but by what criteria do you determine that his "upside" is higher than Leinart's? Because he's taller? Throws farther? Because his ass looks better in football pants?
Personally, I blame the NBA. In the NBA draft, at least for the last decade, teams have been drafting high school and foreign players, where there wasn't anything to them BUT nebulous ideas of upside. And you couldn't afford to simply pass over them for polished college guys, because if you miss out on a Garnett or a Kobe your fans crucify you for not having any vision. And they're right, because you're better off drafting an 18 year old who can be a superstar than a 21 year old who will max out at 15/9.
But in the NFL it's different. You are picking exclusively among people who have already spent at least two years playing against the top competition among their age group, in games that are televised across the country and taken just as seriously as the pro games that are played the next day. You have a world of information about how each and every player performs against this competition. You don't have to rely on "upside" - you have reams of data about actual performance. So why would an NFL team, given the choice between a guy with a spotless college track record and a guy with several flaws on his, pick the flawed guy simply because they have divined he has the potential to be better? Me, I'll take the guy with the credentials over Mr. Upside every time.
barterer2002
April 28, 2006 at 10:38PM View BBCode
Personally I'm thinking that Leinart has a much better chance of being the next Tom Brady than the next Ryan Leaf. I can't begin to imagine him dropping out of the top ten. Dropping out of the top five would shock me. I wouldn't touch Cutler that high personally and I'd take Leinart ahead of Young simply because I'd rather build a traditional offense where the QB drops back and delivers the ball to one where the QB drops back and if nothing is there he runs. Its not that the Randall Cunningham/Michael Vick genre of QBs isn't exciting. It isn't even that you can't be successful with them, its just that I'm stuck in the box and like my QB to be able to drop back and throw. Just my own preferences.
lvnwrth
These guys have played in systems that, for the most part, do not ask the same things of them that an NFL system is going to ask of them...whether that's a linebacker, a defensive back, an offensive lineman, or a quarterback.
Very few colleges run pro-type offenses. If you look only at what Vince Young did in game film, then you must conclude that he can't be a quarterback in the NFL. Because nobody in the NFL runs an option offense out of the shotgun. The NFL is going to require him to use his physical skills in a completely...or almost completely different way than Mack Brown did.
As someone who followed Brad Smith a lot more than Vince Young, I wonder what would have happened to Smith's draft stock if he had played at Texas. What if he had had the talent around him that Young had in Austin? Smith is the only QB in NCAA history to run for 4000 yards and pass for 8000. He's 6'3, 215. And yet, there is almost universal agreement that this guy must become a WR if he's to make it in the NFL. "Great athlete," they say. They may be right. I hope he proves them wrong.
But you suggest, "...in the NFL it's different. You are picking exclusively among people who have already spent at least two years playing against the top competition among their age group, in games that are televised across the country and taken just as seriously as the pro games that are played the next day. You have a world of information about how each and every player performs against this competition. You don't have to rely on "upside"...Me, I'll take the guy with the credentials over Mr. Upside every time."
Would you take Brad Smith as a quarterback? Would you take him as, perhaps, the 4th QB in the draft, behind Young, Leinart, and Cutler? He certainly has the credentials to suggest that he can play quarterback against the best college competition there is.
April 28, 2006 at 10:45PM View BBCode
I mostly agree, CG. But there is an element of unknown. If not, there wouldn't be any Ryan Leafs or Tom Bradys. The Leafs would never get drafted. The Bradys would all be top five picks.These guys have played in systems that, for the most part, do not ask the same things of them that an NFL system is going to ask of them...whether that's a linebacker, a defensive back, an offensive lineman, or a quarterback.
Very few colleges run pro-type offenses. If you look only at what Vince Young did in game film, then you must conclude that he can't be a quarterback in the NFL. Because nobody in the NFL runs an option offense out of the shotgun. The NFL is going to require him to use his physical skills in a completely...or almost completely different way than Mack Brown did.
As someone who followed Brad Smith a lot more than Vince Young, I wonder what would have happened to Smith's draft stock if he had played at Texas. What if he had had the talent around him that Young had in Austin? Smith is the only QB in NCAA history to run for 4000 yards and pass for 8000. He's 6'3, 215. And yet, there is almost universal agreement that this guy must become a WR if he's to make it in the NFL. "Great athlete," they say. They may be right. I hope he proves them wrong.
But you suggest, "...in the NFL it's different. You are picking exclusively among people who have already spent at least two years playing against the top competition among their age group, in games that are televised across the country and taken just as seriously as the pro games that are played the next day. You have a world of information about how each and every player performs against this competition. You don't have to rely on "upside"...Me, I'll take the guy with the credentials over Mr. Upside every time."
Would you take Brad Smith as a quarterback? Would you take him as, perhaps, the 4th QB in the draft, behind Young, Leinart, and Cutler? He certainly has the credentials to suggest that he can play quarterback against the best college competition there is.
barterer2002
April 28, 2006 at 11:58PM View BBCode
Just out of curiousity, who's the last QB to have NFL success while playing college ball in the Big 12/Big 8?
whiskybear
Suddenly, the Saints have an offense.
April 29, 2006 at 12:50AM View BBCode
ESPN has reported that Houston has [url=http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/news/story?id=2426003]agreed to terms with Mario Williams[/url]Suddenly, the Saints have an offense.
sycophantman
April 29, 2006 at 01:01AM View BBCode
Seriously? What a disaster in Houston if that is true...
rkinslow19
holy crap
April 29, 2006 at 01:35AM View BBCode
Originally posted by whiskybear
ESPN has reported that Houston has [url=http://sports.espn.go.com/nfl/draft06/news/story?id=2426003]agreed to terms with Mario Williams[/url]
Suddenly, the Saints have an offense.
holy crap
rkinslow19
April 29, 2006 at 01:39AM View BBCode
And yes, I love the NFL draft. I will be up tomorrow morning watching it, beer in hand. I love all the highlights, and all the trade talk. It's the easiest way to learn a little about all the players that are entering the league
John61983
USC grad...
April 29, 2006 at 02:43AM View BBCode
Originally posted by rkinslow19
And yes, I love the NFL draft. I will be up tomorrow morning watching it, beer in hand. I love all the highlights, and all the trade talk. It's the easiest way to learn a little about all the players that are entering the league
USC grad...
skierdude44
Now the interesting thing is to see what Reggie Bush does to this whole situation. Could the Saints really be dumb enough to pass on him, too? I've heard that they were almost as high on D'Brickashaw Ferguson as they were on Mario Williams, and they have lost arguably their two best offensive lineman, Bently and Gandy, and Gandy was an LT. As for the Texans... well, as good as Mario Williams may be I still be a pretty angry Texans fan right now.
April 29, 2006 at 03:20PM View BBCode
As a Jets fan I've been praying that they take Leinart should he fall to them. The way it looks, unless the Saints do something unexpected and draft a QB, it seems as if either Leinart or Young will fall to them depending on who Tennessee takes. I'd be happy with either one because Rag-Arm Pennington and Patrick Ramsey aren't the long term answers there, but either Young or Leinart has a chance to become a star. Everything I've seen though has them leaning toward D'Brickashaw Ferguson here and trying to grab a QB (maybe a Brody Croyle) in the second round or late first round with their #28 pick. Sure, Ferguson is probably a safer pick then either of the QBs since OT is an easier position to project than QB, but when you have no franchise QB already it's kind of hard to justify drafting an OT to protect your non-existent franchise QB, especially when you could have grabbed a franchise QB at that spot instead. In the NY area there's a huge faction that favors Leinart and Leinart apparently wants to play here. I just have a feeling that the Jets fans will be booing after Gang Green's first overall pick, just like every season.Now the interesting thing is to see what Reggie Bush does to this whole situation. Could the Saints really be dumb enough to pass on him, too? I've heard that they were almost as high on D'Brickashaw Ferguson as they were on Mario Williams, and they have lost arguably their two best offensive lineman, Bently and Gandy, and Gandy was an LT. As for the Texans... well, as good as Mario Williams may be I still be a pretty angry Texans fan right now.
Cubsfan13
Bush
Young
Ferguson just now
And I'm not going to act like I have a clue how good any of them are going to be in the NFL. Except as a semi Texans fan, I would have been much more pleased if they had traded the pick and gotten Ferguson, or just taken Bush. Leinart should go to the Raiders. I'd guess Green Bay will take Hawk, then the 49'ers will probably take Davis from Maryland to give Smith someone to throw to.
April 29, 2006 at 04:53PM View BBCode
WilliamsBush
Young
Ferguson just now
And I'm not going to act like I have a clue how good any of them are going to be in the NFL. Except as a semi Texans fan, I would have been much more pleased if they had traded the pick and gotten Ferguson, or just taken Bush. Leinart should go to the Raiders. I'd guess Green Bay will take Hawk, then the 49'ers will probably take Davis from Maryland to give Smith someone to throw to.
Cubsfan13
April 29, 2006 at 05:16PM View BBCode
Ok, the Bills will take someone shitty now. Please, Detroit, take Leinart. Damn it. Kitna has already shown an ability to be on the same team as a USC quarterback. Ok, that has nothing to do with anything. But fucking take him anyway.
whiskybear
April 29, 2006 at 05:18PM View BBCode
Jesus, Leinart really is slipping to Detroit or Arizona (or to the Bills, if they choose to write off Losman, followed by Chris Berman making some dopey comment about whether or not a touch passer can survive in the swirling winds of Buffalo).
whiskybear
April 29, 2006 at 05:20PM View BBCode
What am I thinking---Detroit already has Santonio Holmes on its draft slip.
Cubsfan13
April 29, 2006 at 05:25PM View BBCode
Actually, they're flipping a coin as we speak to decide whether they'll take Holmes or Jackson.
whiskybear
April 29, 2006 at 05:33PM View BBCode
Well, enjoy your linebacker, Cubs. Denny Green must be salivating.
Cubsfan13
What happened to DeAngelo Williams' draft status? At one point people talked about him possibly going to the Jets, but now it looks like he's a late teens to early 20's pick.
April 29, 2006 at 05:37PM View BBCode
Argh. Just..argh.What happened to DeAngelo Williams' draft status? At one point people talked about him possibly going to the Jets, but now it looks like he's a late teens to early 20's pick.
Cubsfan13
April 29, 2006 at 05:53PM View BBCode
Why wouldn't Baltimore try to trade for that pick to get Cutler? Do they still believe in Boller?