 |
View Old Forum Thread
Old Forum Index » Sim Forums » Baseball Game & Site Questions » Q for Veteran Owners Who Pay Attention to Defense
tm4559
May 23, 2015 at 03:23PM View BBCode
(i mean, obviously, there are singles to left field where even a great arm is not going to stop the runner going to third. but out of 65 times, there have to be more than just a few singles that are just routine jobs that go right to the left fielder on a bounce, or ground balls through the infield, whatever, that are totally routine plays, easy pickups by the left fielder and only the most foolish baserunner is going to try for third. 62 of 65? IMPOSSIBLE. forget it, it can't have ever happened.)
ballmark
I repeat my former takeaway: Better Arms in the OF, Better Ranges in the IF. (Better both any time you can get them goes without saying.)
May 23, 2015 at 04:24PM View BBCode
This data also suggests - LOL - that SimBatters intentionally swing late in hopes of hitting to RF when a weak-armed OF mans the position.I repeat my former takeaway: Better Arms in the OF, Better Ranges in the IF. (Better both any time you can get them goes without saying.)
WillyD
May 23, 2015 at 05:04PM View BBCode
So we need to find out where in the arm grade, runners start being more cautious. I'd love to see the difference between C or C+, and B- or B.
tm4559
:)
[Edited on 5-23-2015 by tm4559]
May 23, 2015 at 05:30PM View BBCode
well, the code doesn't work with b's and c's, it works with numbers, obviously. is the difference in caution much against 56 arm or 57? (or whever the border is between c and c+ okay? i don't feel like looking at my number league and finding it, the numbers are just frankly boring). the (obvious) answer is, the difference in caution is infinitessimally small against 56 and 57, but obviously larger than against, say, 46 and 57 (or any two other numbers that are further apart than one, and the difference in caution should grow as that difference grow larger. obviously.):)
[Edited on 5-23-2015 by tm4559]
mr1313
May 23, 2015 at 05:38PM View BBCode
I have always played the skills like an MLB manager would and have been fairly successful doing so, the game isn't that complicated and many seem to overthink things here.
tworoosters
While I haven't been able to find MLB numbers on runners thrown out attempting to go 1st to 3rd I can tell you that, for example, in 2014 2561 runners advanced from 1st to 3rd on a single, as opposed to 6271 who stopped at 2nd, and there were a total of only 377 OOB3. OOB3 refers to all base runners who made an out at 3rd base other than CS, pickoffs or forced play. If we even take the assumption that all 377 OOB3 were players thrown out trying to go 1st to 3rd on a single that means that of the 9201 occasions in 2014 when a single was hit with a runner on 3rd there were at most 377 times he got caught, 4% .
Of course the actual % will be lower because OOB3 also includes runners attempting to advance from 2nd on a flyball, players doubled off on a line drive, players trying to advance on a wild pitch or passed ball and the occasional lead foot thrown out going 1st to 3rd on a double. When stretching initially came out Tyson said the sim numbers were 3.78% caught going 1st to 3rd which would be right in line with MLB.
So what we have in the sim is double the number of runners attempting to go from 1st to 3rd but the same % of runners being thrown out at 3rd .
[Edited on 5-28-2015 by tworoosters]
May 23, 2015 at 05:43PM View BBCode
The numbers of runners in the sim going from 1st to 3rd are much higher than in MLB, in MLB it's been a pretty consistent rate of roughly 31% of base runners advancing from 1st to 3rd on a single for the past decade, while it appears from the limited data here that the sim is well over 50% and when stretching first came out Admin put the sim number at 61%.While I haven't been able to find MLB numbers on runners thrown out attempting to go 1st to 3rd I can tell you that, for example, in 2014 2561 runners advanced from 1st to 3rd on a single, as opposed to 6271 who stopped at 2nd, and there were a total of only 377 OOB3. OOB3 refers to all base runners who made an out at 3rd base other than CS, pickoffs or forced play. If we even take the assumption that all 377 OOB3 were players thrown out trying to go 1st to 3rd on a single that means that of the 9201 occasions in 2014 when a single was hit with a runner on 3rd there were at most 377 times he got caught, 4% .
Of course the actual % will be lower because OOB3 also includes runners attempting to advance from 2nd on a flyball, players doubled off on a line drive, players trying to advance on a wild pitch or passed ball and the occasional lead foot thrown out going 1st to 3rd on a double. When stretching initially came out Tyson said the sim numbers were 3.78% caught going 1st to 3rd which would be right in line with MLB.
So what we have in the sim is double the number of runners attempting to go from 1st to 3rd but the same % of runners being thrown out at 3rd .
[Edited on 5-28-2015 by tworoosters]
WillyD
May 23, 2015 at 05:46PM View BBCode
Tim, we don't really now how the stretching works. There's a massive difference between A and C, so I'm interested in seeing if B is in the middle, or if there's a non-linear progression. Because baserunnng is similar to stealing in the way it's set-up, there could be a substantial difference when getting up to the next letter grade.
tm4559
May 23, 2015 at 06:46PM View BBCode
i didn't dispute any of that. i was simply pointing out the difference, or not pointing it out, it so obvious, it more like reminding you. the difference between c- and c can be one point, or how many points? eight? its a big difference. i don't have to know how the stretching works to know one point has to be more signifcant than eight. the stretching is no different than any other part of the code. all of it runs on the numbers that stand behind the letters. that was all i was saying. all i know, for sure, about the stretching/baserunning/throwing is, it should be fixed. because it is obviously messed up. its results (that were presented here) are so far out of the pale, it preposterous. whether the progression is linear or non linear? is beside the point. you can't have those results from any part of the curve, however its shaped. because those results are un-possible in real life. i suspect, to bring it into line with real life, some adjustment would have to be made to account for the massive over abundance of speed in simulated players. not saying that all of the problem, or even the majority of it. but it is an area where the simulation and real life far apart. you have simulated teams with the whole starting lineup at a- or above (my team is one a- and the rest a or a+). THE WHOLE STARTING LINEUP. this...........has............never.........happened..........in...........real.........baseball. there are not that many fast human beings that choose to play baseball. they don't exist. they never have. they never will.
WillyD
May 23, 2015 at 07:47PM View BBCode
I agree with everything you said, I'm just wondering if the baserunner's decision to advance to 3rd is based on the letter grade of the OFer. It seems like it could be.
ballmark
Or, you could pair Speed with Range in the 10% part of the formula, and move Arm into the 16% part of the code, which may be more realistic...?
Yeah, none of that's going to happen, I know.
May 24, 2015 at 01:53AM View BBCode
Let's start a push for swapping out Speed with Health as far as code advancements go. It seems to me that players - outside of perhaps teens into their very early 20s - are not going to get much faster, if any at all. While a player *can* do something about their Health in terms of conditioning, healthier eating, etc.Or, you could pair Speed with Range in the 10% part of the formula, and move Arm into the 16% part of the code, which may be more realistic...?
Yeah, none of that's going to happen, I know.
WillyD
I also think health should improve if a player doesn't have any major injuries for a while. Some types of injuries tend to lead to more injuries, so maybe players should lose some health after suffering major injuries.
May 24, 2015 at 03:23AM View BBCode
Although speed doesn't improve that much, you can make yourself faster thru training. Where a player can really grow is base running ability. That is definitely a part of the speed rating in SimD. But overall, there are too many high end red letter runners. Lessen that, and we can bring down the catcher arms too. Be nice to let the high A+ runners steal bases they way they should.I also think health should improve if a player doesn't have any major injuries for a while. Some types of injuries tend to lead to more injuries, so maybe players should lose some health after suffering major injuries.
paulcaraccio
May 24, 2015 at 10:05AM View BBCode
i would really love to see health be variable in both directions from season to season, but if we're talking wishful thinking, I'd like to see a Baserunning skill injected to the game that gets bundled with Speed for development purposes. Then a player who's good at both is an excellent base-stealer, but a player who's merely fast but not a great baserunner will get caught more; a high-Baserunning low-Speed guy will take an extra base on singles and rarely be doubled up, but less likely to score on a sac fly; additionally, Speed could then be factored into defense, high-Speed/high Range would make a great OF, low-Speed high-Range is an excellent IF. This would obviously coexist with extra batting skill (Discipline) so that Contact can work in two directions, and an extra pitching skill (Stuff) that works with both Control and Velocity, to create more variations of players. That game will probably be created by someone who visits this site instead of someone who runs this site.
loonatic
There were 51 singles hit to player B with a runner on second.
Runner advanced from 2nd to 3rd: 0 times
Runner advanced from 2nd to Home: 48 times
Runner was thrown out trying to advance from 2nd to Home: 3 times
There were 12 doubles hit to player B with a runner on first.
Runner advanced from 1st to 3rd: 0 times
Runner advanced from 1st to Home: 9 times
Runner was thrown out trying to advance from 1st to Home: 3 times
There were 13 fly outs hit to player B with a runner on third.
Runner stayed at 3rd: 2 times
Runner tagged and advanced from 3rd to home: 11 times
Runner was thrown out trying to tag and advance from 3rd to home: 0 times
So the bottom line seems to be that runners will try to take an extra base nearly every opportunity on a weak-armed LF. I'm questioning whether you can just hide players with terrible defensive attributes in the corner outfield positions.
May 24, 2015 at 08:12PM View BBCode
I did some additional tallies for my Player B, who as a reminder has a "C" arm and started 149 games in LF.There were 51 singles hit to player B with a runner on second.
Runner advanced from 2nd to 3rd: 0 times
Runner advanced from 2nd to Home: 48 times
Runner was thrown out trying to advance from 2nd to Home: 3 times
There were 12 doubles hit to player B with a runner on first.
Runner advanced from 1st to 3rd: 0 times
Runner advanced from 1st to Home: 9 times
Runner was thrown out trying to advance from 1st to Home: 3 times
There were 13 fly outs hit to player B with a runner on third.
Runner stayed at 3rd: 2 times
Runner tagged and advanced from 3rd to home: 11 times
Runner was thrown out trying to tag and advance from 3rd to home: 0 times
So the bottom line seems to be that runners will try to take an extra base nearly every opportunity on a weak-armed LF. I'm questioning whether you can just hide players with terrible defensive attributes in the corner outfield positions.
paulcaraccio
is there an easy way to compile this data or is it as tedious as I'm imagining? I have a couple A+ arms in one of my OFs I wouldn't mind doing the numbers on.
May 24, 2015 at 08:38PM View BBCode
where else could you put them?is there an easy way to compile this data or is it as tedious as I'm imagining? I have a couple A+ arms in one of my OFs I wouldn't mind doing the numbers on.
loonatic
May 24, 2015 at 09:27PM View BBCode
It's as tedious as you are imagining. You have to go through every game's play-by-play and keep track of which player is in the field and whether or not there are base runners.
WillyD
I would say, based on your data, C arms are unacceptable in the OF for any team that's competing. If you were to do it, said player would have to be an extraordinary offensive talent to make up for it.
[Edited on 5-25-2015 by WillyD]
May 25, 2015 at 02:27AM View BBCode
Originally posted by loonatic
I'm questioning whether you can just hide players with terrible defensive attributes in the corner outfield positions.
I would say, based on your data, C arms are unacceptable in the OF for any team that's competing. If you were to do it, said player would have to be an extraordinary offensive talent to make up for it.
[Edited on 5-25-2015 by WillyD]
ballmark
May 25, 2015 at 06:51AM View BBCode
This thread has completely changed the way I think about OF defense. Mission accomplished. My work here is through.
Frunobulax
Few good players have a terrible defense. Hypothetically, if a player starts out at F/F at OS19 he should still end up B- or B in both skills. If he starts at F/D, he'lll reach B+ in the better skill.
A player with C arm would have to be drafted old, or he has good range, making him a candidate for the infield.
Still, up until now I put high-range players with bad arms (A+/C+ or so) in the outfield if I had more than one (the first goes to 1B, naturally), and players with decent arms at 3B (say B range, A arm). After reading this thread I might reverse this. Interesting thread, indeed.
May 25, 2015 at 12:58PM View BBCode
Originally posted by paulcaraccio
where else could you put them?
Few good players have a terrible defense. Hypothetically, if a player starts out at F/F at OS19 he should still end up B- or B in both skills. If he starts at F/D, he'lll reach B+ in the better skill.
A player with C arm would have to be drafted old, or he has good range, making him a candidate for the infield.
Still, up until now I put high-range players with bad arms (A+/C+ or so) in the outfield if I had more than one (the first goes to 1B, naturally), and players with decent arms at 3B (say B range, A arm). After reading this thread I might reverse this. Interesting thread, indeed.
WillyD
May 25, 2015 at 02:00PM View BBCode
I'm currently working on compiling stretching stats for 3 OFers with B arms. Initial data shows a B arm makes baserunners avoid stretching at times on both singles and doubles. So there is a difference from C to B.
paulcaraccio
May 25, 2015 at 06:56PM View BBCode
before we all start mass-transferring our noodle arms to the infield, has anyone tried one of those dudez there before? anyone have any data on an A+/C type playing 2B/SS/3B? Is it possible they're giving up scores of infield singles, failing to turn DPs, and piling up throwing errors, which are twice as bad as fielding errors (in the infield). If a T-Rex in the outfield costs us 45 bases a year, how do we know that's pricier than what would happen in the infield?
loonatic
Actually the 45 bases was from just one kind of stretching (1st to 3rd on a single). If you add in stretching from 2nd to home on a single, 1st to home on a double, and tagging from 3rd on a fly out, I think the difference between an A arm and C arm may be more like 70 bases per year.
By comparison, a difference in 70 bases is a lot more than you are going to sacrifice in extra stolen bases by starting a B+ catcher over an A+ catcher over the course of a season. Maybe we need to start to value arm in the OF as much as arm at catcher?
[Edited on 5-25-2015 by loonatic]
May 25, 2015 at 08:29PM View BBCode
Originally posted by paulcaraccio
If a T-Rex in the outfield costs us 45 bases a year, how do we know that's pricier than what would happen in the infield?
Actually the 45 bases was from just one kind of stretching (1st to 3rd on a single). If you add in stretching from 2nd to home on a single, 1st to home on a double, and tagging from 3rd on a fly out, I think the difference between an A arm and C arm may be more like 70 bases per year.
By comparison, a difference in 70 bases is a lot more than you are going to sacrifice in extra stolen bases by starting a B+ catcher over an A+ catcher over the course of a season. Maybe we need to start to value arm in the OF as much as arm at catcher?
[Edited on 5-25-2015 by loonatic]
WillyD
I think you may see people avoiding extreme defense split (high range/low arm) hitters unless they need a 1st baseman, or they're going to be exceptional offensive talents.
I'm never putting a guy at 2B, SS, or 3B with a C arm. I don't like anything less than B+, but will occasionally use a lesser arm if the range is A+.
May 25, 2015 at 08:56PM View BBCode
Originally posted by paulcaraccio
before we all start mass-transferring our noodle arms to the infield, has anyone tried one of those dudez there before? anyone have any data on an A+/C type playing 2B/SS/3B? Is it possible they're giving up scores of infield singles, failing to turn DPs, and piling up throwing errors, which are twice as bad as fielding errors (in the infield). If a T-Rex in the outfield costs us 45 bases a year, how do we know that's pricier than what would happen in the infield?
I think you may see people avoiding extreme defense split (high range/low arm) hitters unless they need a 1st baseman, or they're going to be exceptional offensive talents.
I'm never putting a guy at 2B, SS, or 3B with a C arm. I don't like anything less than B+, but will occasionally use a lesser arm if the range is A+.
tm4559
May 28, 2015 at 11:29AM View BBCode
You are going to have to account for the speed of the runners. My b arm cf can hold the runner to second base if the speed is b or even b plus. But not a minus or whatever. Not ever. It's a totally free base.
tm4559
May 28, 2015 at 12:53PM View BBCode
(what i suspect, and the earlier numbers we saw kind of bear it out, is that the decision to stretch is being determined on a very simple basis, that is a comparison of the outfielder's arm and the runner' speed. when the speed outweighs the arm, the result is the base is taken in almost every instance. when the arm outweighs the speed, there is no advancement. when the two are close, there is an occasional throwout. thus we see the big arms getting eight, nine or more assists during a season.)