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TheBigKahuna0

2021 JJL Draft Recap

September 15, 2016 at 03:08AM View BBCode

Hi everyone. For a while I've been doing some reviews of prospects in my other league, the CPBL, and thought it would be fun to trot something out here. We just finished our draft and my brilliant idea is to share my thoughts on how it panned out. There are a couple things I want to point out first. This is all speculation on my part. I clearly don't know everything so all of this is my opinion which I encourage you to disagree with. Second, I may poke fun at some of you, but just know that I may embellish for entertainment purposes. Don't take it personally - remember I don't know everything and I may know nothing.

Here I will judge picks based on the quality of the player at their age, team need/draft strategy, upside and whatever personal bias cuts in as well. I'll explore the best and worst case scenarios as there's still enough of an unknown element that some could go either way. Since names tend to change this time of year, I'll link so you can check out some cards.

1) Los Angeles Stars - [url=http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?mode=player&playername=nobody&id=12199666]Johnny Carson[/url] SP
The selection of 21 year old starting pitcher came as a bit of a surprise to me. A B/B+ and just B overall, Carson has at least a year before he could hold his own in the majors. The Stars clearly want a quick turnaround on their #1 investment but also will probably pick here again soon. This draft lacked that clear #1 choice so this selection is understandable.
ETA: 2022
Upside: If he's close to B+ overall, he could turn into a solid starter. Making A overall may be a stretch, but possible Carson gets the ball opening day for a very good team.
Downside: If he's closer to B- than B+, the Stars have a project. He'll still be a mid-rotation starter so the floor is still high.
Pick Grade: C+

2) Colorado Stegosaurus - [url=http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?mode=player&playername=nobody&id=12199651]Hideo Nishigaki[/url] - SS
Colorado pulled the trigger on this 25 year old import. Nishigaki should go in the first round, but in a stronger draft likely would have been passed over for more upside prospects at #2. However, a quick look at Colorado's roster shows a lack of available development room. He's also only the 4th A- player on the major league roster, making him an instant upgrade in the daily lineup.
ETA: Now
Upside: With already good speed and great contact, Nishigaki becomes a top notch table setter for the Stegos. He plays Gold Glove quality defense at second base and is around when the rebuild is complete and the team starts to win more than lose.
Downside: With a history of poor health, Nishigaki spend much of his first couple years on the DL and doesn't provide enough power to merit a daily lineup spot. His floor of utility infielder is realized and he holds back the rebuild.
Pick Grade: B

3) Cleveland Tomahawk Chops - [url=http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?mode=player&playername=nobody&id=12199731]Dave Plesac[/url] - SP
The soft throwing 21 year old lefty poses a risk for Cleveland. His control is beyond great, but his age and D+ velocity limit his ceiling. The Chops may have wanted Nishigaki, only to see him slip away at #2. Instead, they get a guy they can give attention to for one year and see what happens.
ETA: 2023
Upside: He learns how to throw hard in a hurry and manages C+ velocity with A+ control and becomes a middle rotation guy.
Downside: The velocity doesn't come and he'll get the call in his late 20's to do mop up work.
Pick Grade: C-

4) Pittsburgh Chosen Ones - [url=http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?mode=player&playername=nobody&id=12199661]Brandon Hardy[/url] - SP
20 year old Hardy is the 2nd pitcher in a row to come off the board but will be followed by 5 more. Of the pitchers selected so far, he has the most upside. It's easy to see him being ready as soon as next season. The new owner in the steel city has one of the few quality pieces in this draft gift wrapped at #4.
ETA: 2022
Upside: Hardy could lead the rotation. He could end up A+/B at his prime which is capable of leading a rotation.
Downside: Hardy could hold is rotation back. He could end up A+/B- which is could go either way.
Pick Grade: A

5) Minnesota Massacres - [url=http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?mode=player&playername=nobody&id=12199711]Danny Peterson[/url] - SP
23 year old Peterson is the oldest player drafted in the top 10 outside of MLB ready Nishigaki. His skill set today would look great if he were 20. At 23, it's hard to see him having an impact. Minnesota clearly had someone else in mind and missed out.
ETA: 2027
Upside: If he gets MLB mop up time now, he could be a competent middle innings guy.
Downside: He doesn't see the majors until a pitching needy team plucks him from waivers.
Pick Grade: D

6) Chicago Beagles - [url=http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?mode=player&playername=nobody&id=12199701]Vic Abstein[/url] - SP
Pitcher #4 of this run comes in the form of a 21 year old righty. Abstein is a tweener right now and his year of development in 2021 will reveal his fate. He probably gets some attention from a CP strapped system and could provide relief with a promotion as soon as next season.
ETA: 2023
Upside: His C/A- is on the verge of C+/A and he ends up a #2 or #3 guy in a rotation. B/A+ is probably his best outcome.
Downside: His C/A- is closer to C-/B+ and he needs 2-3 years to develop. Even then, he should be a useful piece down the road.
Pick Grade: B

7) Cincinnati Blackened Blowfish - [url=http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?mode=player&playername=nobody&id=12199656]Derrick Klimchock[/url] - SP
DK is a pure lottery ticket for the Blowfish at A+/C. The squad has some CP's to spare which is critical since he's not promotable yet. For the 6th pitcher taken in the draft, it's not a bad gamble. There are other options available that would have been better, but Klimchock might be the best one left that can rise quickly.
ETA: 2022
Upside: Hits C+ control by mid season and gets promoted by the end of the year
Downside: Doesn't hit C+ control and languishes in the minors while better prospects get his CP's.
Pick Grade: C+

8) Boston Red Sox - [url=http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?mode=player&playername=nobody&id=12199681]Kyle Cerv[/url] - SP
22 year old Cerv is the safer version of Klimchock but will require more time. At A-/C+, he might hit ripeness mid 2022. With an aging starting rotation in Boston, he could see the bigs to start 2022 and take a few lumps. He'll reach A+ velocity while touting enough control to be a useful starting pitcher.
ETA: 2022
Upside: He beat projections and ends up in the rotation to start 2022. He ends up a rotation workhorse for the next dozen years in Boston.
Downside: He gets pulled up too early and struggles. Meanwhile, he doesn't improve as well and ends up a fringe starter.
Pick Grade: B

9) Philadelphia Athletics - [url=http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?mode=player&playername=nobody&id=12199716]Danny Quirk[/url] - SP
Finally the last SP of this 7 pitcher run. Philly clearly wanted an arm and unfortunately got a weak prospect here. B- at 21 isn't a death sentence, but doesn't instill confidence either. Like some of the other guys on this list, he's in a make or break year right away. It makes sense that he'd be the 8th pitcher of this draft, but his selection would make more sense in mid to late teens than at 9.
ETA: 2024
Upside: Quirk proves me wrong and converts to B overall quickly. The result is a mid-rotation starter a lot of teams would like to have.
Downside: He makes B+/B- this season and is stuck. He'll need some major league time to improve but he might not get it.
Pick Grade: C

10) Miami Yams - [url=http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?mode=player&playername=nobody&id=12199941]Dave Carr[/url] - LF
It took 10 picks to get the first position prospect off the board and the Yams should be pleased. While this is a weak draft, Carr is a good pickup at 10. He has some upside in the power department, although he may struggle against lefties. However, the Yams would have preferred a more seasoned player as CP's are tight this year.
ETA: 2025
Upside: Middle of the order power guy that produces a lot of run
Downside: Bat against lefties fails to develop along with defensive ability. He ends up a platoon partner and liability in the field.
Pick Grade: A-

11) Washington Halos - [url=http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?mode=player&playername=nobody&id=12199691]Herb Fahr[/url] - LF
Most of the draft after this point is project players. While the Halos probably have the CP's to spare, they opt for the righty smashing Fahr. This 24 year old is already polished against righties but is useless against lefties. He's the 2nd best major league ready bat in the league, but when that guy goes 11th it might not be a good sign.
ETA: Now
Upside: Fills the strong side of a platoon and displays great power
Downside: Doesn't get the playing time he needs and never moves forward. Ends up a career pinch hitter.
Pick Grade: C+

12) Kansas City Monarchs - [url=http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?mode=player&playername=nobody&id=12199806]Thomas Dougherty[/url] - LF
The Monarchs picked the third LF in a row and got 18 year old Dougherty. C+ overall at 18 isn't a bad place to start, but a closer look reveals that he's just barely a C+. His C-/C swing vs right handers is going to need a lot of work. He offers some upside against lefties and should field well, so hoping his ability vs righties come around isn't a terrible gamble this late in the draft.
ETA: 2026
Upside: His swing vs righties catches on and he becomes a every guy in center field.
Downside: His swing vs rigthties stays where it is and he's lucky to get a job on a bench.
Pick Grade: C

13) Brooklyn Atlantics - [url=http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?mode=player&playername=nobody&id=12199676]George Kallio[/url] - SP
Brooklyn wanted a pitcher, but struck out at 13th overall. Kallio is a 24 year old right hander that throws hard but lacks promising control. At C- control, he needs 2-3 years to develop before helping out. At his age, he needs to get major league innings to develop and won't get that on a contending Atlantics team.
ETA: 2026
Upside: Mop up guy for a non-contender.
Downside: Waiver wire without recording a MLB out.
Pick Grade: F

14) Seattle Steelheads - [url=http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?mode=player&playername=nobody&id=12200016]Bill Mahoney[/url] - RF
C- players rarely get drafted in the first round. Mahoney seems to have a good balance of skills, but won't end up a speedster or a high OBP guy. Instead, Seattle hopes his high power ranking at just 17 years old will be the difference. A CP crunch down the road could send Mahoney to the back seat.
ETA: 2026
Upside: A+ pop vs right handers while playing great defense. Middle of the order type guy when he breaks through.
Downside: Contact doesn't catch up and he strikes out a ton. Ends up a .200 hitter on a bench.
Pick Grade: B+

15) Brooklyn Atlantics - [url=http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?mode=player&playername=nobody&id=12199671]Tom Cvengros[/url] - RP
Brooklyn's 2nd 1st rounder courtesy of Chicago turns up a decent arm that is headed to the MLB. With a better shot than earlier drafted Kallio. At 25, he's not a prospect but a guy that needs to turn it on right now. Since he's already on the big roster, it's hard to believe Brooklyn isn't pleased with his selection.
ETA: Now
Upside: This is about it. Maybe a bit better for skills with the ceiling of set-up man.
Downside: Flames out in his rookie year and is looking for work down the road.
Pick Grade: B

16) St. Louis Browns - [url=http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?mode=player&playername=nobody&id=12200101]Stan Stone[/url] - RP
Stone is just one of three teenagers, and the only teenaged pitcher, drafted in the first round. He's a project with youth on his side. D+ control is a bad place to start and it's probably impossible that he gets past the B's.
ETA: 2027
Upside: Back end of the bullpen shutdown reliever.
Downside: Control doesn't develop and he's abandoned as a project.
Pick Grade: A-

Overall: This draft was a bad one. Even with some questionable picks, it's hard to believe anyone lost out on a star player. Some projects may pan out down the road, many more will bust. This may be the worst draft we've ever had.
2021 Draft Class Grade: F

There it is. First round of the 2021 draft broken down for your reading pleasure. Of course, if you think I've overvalued your guys, feel free to trade him my way! Good luck!
meat1968

September 15, 2016 at 01:31PM View BBCode

This is awesome bro - a great read!

We gotta lure you into the RHL :)
Santo10

September 15, 2016 at 05:48PM View BBCode

I enjoyed the analysis...but will differ on the grades a bit. Carson was the best player in the draft....so not sure how that equates to a C+ (by the way I didn't pick till 16th). How could he have done any better? Now, maybe, I am looking at it different than was meant. Maybe for a top pick he is a C+. He isn't the greatest first pick in the world...but that's the nature of this draft, not the guy picking him.

Best Pick: Boston, Kyle Cerv ....slipping to 8th, you got a deal

Kahuna...this isn't meant to be critical, just don't want the guy who picked first to think we believe he picked poorly. I would have taken the same player.


[Edited on 9-15-2016 by Santo10]
mrtwolff

September 15, 2016 at 07:53PM View BBCode

Great read!!
ratman44

September 15, 2016 at 11:26PM View BBCode

The Colorado Stegosauras stand by Iplay Nintendo. It was a great pick in our eyes. We understand he only has one arm, and he can't run on every 5th day, but he is definitely an upgrade over our current former bot batting team members. But man you should see this kid play baseball stars.

We stand by our commitment to continue to develop Stegosauras and other Dinosaurs at Jurassic Park.

Thank You.
TheBigKahuna0

September 16, 2016 at 12:46AM View BBCode

Haha, I wish you changed his name before I wrote. I had one hell of a time typing it out so many times.

As I said, this was a bad draft and all my opinion. I'm not sure I would have gone Carson at #1 and I'm glad I didn't have to choose. I think there will be better players in this draft in the long run, but feel free to rub my nose in it if I'm wrong.
ratman44

September 16, 2016 at 01:02AM View BBCode

FWIW, I had Carson 1 also, you figure even if you pitch him right away, he should move a whole grade from 22-23, then get a half at OS24, then he should grow another 10-14, so the would be 2 and 1/2 grades so I had him at A-/A.

I would take an A-/A starter. Now he could falter and be stuck B+/A- or B+/A, but those guys are more effective than an A+/B which is where Hardy is sort of targeted for.

Cerv on the other hand, I had him 3, but again he may or may not make anything more than A+/B. But Cerv has B- PvR which is rare for a pitcher.
TapMaster

September 16, 2016 at 01:12AM View BBCode

This was great!
TheBigKahuna0

September 16, 2016 at 06:38PM View BBCode

I can see that. I think that top grade probably reflected the quality of Carson compared to other #1 picks. I think it was weak by that comparison.

Either way, this is a nice discussion. I'll have to keep this up next season!
winkabob

September 16, 2016 at 11:39PM View BBCode

Originally posted by TheBigKahuna0
I can see that. I think that top grade probably reflected the quality of Carson compared to other #1 picks. I think it was weak by that comparison.

Either way, this is a nice discussion. I'll have to keep this up next season!


Please do Kahuna, thanks for putting the time and thought into it.
Fun read and I appreciate it.

On the other hand a C+ eh? :o I think I screwed the pooch last year but while I'm not overjoyed there that was no slam dunk in the draft, Carson will do.



[Edited on 9-16-2016 by winkabob]
Racepicks

September 19, 2016 at 04:58AM View BBCode

Thanks for that report, Kahuna!! I might add, "You have way too much time on your hands", but that time resulted in a big win for us!!!!

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