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drunkengoat
My possible slip-ups:
With one of my managers, I have a $20 bet on the Colts, which he took 3:1 for the Steelers on the stipulation that the 'probable' [url=sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2233489]Roethlisberger[/url] is the starting QB for Pitt. So if the Steelers can somehow pull a rabbit out of their asses, I owe him $60.
Another manager took a bet with me of $20 that the Steelers will better a 9-point spread... I wanted 7, but he wouldn't take that. Too easy, he said. So meh, those Colts better win by more than 9 points, and I'm certain they will.
He added an over-under $10 bet... So my genius mouth... 60. He took under, which is exactly what's going to happen if the defenses are on.
I potentially have $90 to lose on this game if somehow the Colts nosedive just like Daffy Duck just did on the movie. Sounds like not much, but that's about what I make on a single Sunday, which is vital to getting my bills paid. Your take on the betting?
MNF Betting Pool
November 28, 2005 at 07:01PM View BBCode
Well, I've been sick... Beh, and I've dug myself a hole on the possible upset pending tonight... Of course, I made a few bets on the Colts because, well... duh.My possible slip-ups:
With one of my managers, I have a $20 bet on the Colts, which he took 3:1 for the Steelers on the stipulation that the 'probable' [url=sports.espn.go.com/nfl/news/story?id=2233489]Roethlisberger[/url] is the starting QB for Pitt. So if the Steelers can somehow pull a rabbit out of their asses, I owe him $60.
Another manager took a bet with me of $20 that the Steelers will better a 9-point spread... I wanted 7, but he wouldn't take that. Too easy, he said. So meh, those Colts better win by more than 9 points, and I'm certain they will.
He added an over-under $10 bet... So my genius mouth... 60. He took under, which is exactly what's going to happen if the defenses are on.
I potentially have $90 to lose on this game if somehow the Colts nosedive just like Daffy Duck just did on the movie. Sounds like not much, but that's about what I make on a single Sunday, which is vital to getting my bills paid. Your take on the betting?
BrutusKhan
It sounds like the second bet I don't like. From the way it reads, $20 if Indy doesn't win by MORE than 9, which is the same as giving up 9.5 points.
I prefer the under on this game, but Vegas is VERY VERY good at making it a coin flip on over-unders, which is what they want, w/ 50% of the money on both sides. So, you should have an even chance on 2 out of the 3 bets, with the 3rd one a little off the line.
Overall, you aren't giving up the 10% to Vegas, so if you were to have called a bookie, or Vegas, you would probably have worse odds than you got at the office, and can at least trash talk if you win.
I, personally, think you are going to lose $30, and win $20, as I see the Colts winning a lower scoring game by a field goal.
Doug
November 28, 2005 at 07:20PM View BBCode
Well, the spread was sitting at 8.5 points before, so the 3 to 1 ratio with no points is a fair bet. When a team is that favored to win, to get rid of a line that big would require somewhere around 3:1 ratios.It sounds like the second bet I don't like. From the way it reads, $20 if Indy doesn't win by MORE than 9, which is the same as giving up 9.5 points.
I prefer the under on this game, but Vegas is VERY VERY good at making it a coin flip on over-unders, which is what they want, w/ 50% of the money on both sides. So, you should have an even chance on 2 out of the 3 bets, with the 3rd one a little off the line.
Overall, you aren't giving up the 10% to Vegas, so if you were to have called a bookie, or Vegas, you would probably have worse odds than you got at the office, and can at least trash talk if you win.
I, personally, think you are going to lose $30, and win $20, as I see the Colts winning a lower scoring game by a field goal.
Doug
whiskybear
Goat, remind me to always gamble against you.
November 28, 2005 at 07:25PM View BBCode
Cowher is 6-0 against Indy, the Steelers have one of the best rushing defenses with which to corral Edgerrin James and an opportunistic secondary, and Roethlisberger is starting--and the Steelers are 7-1 this season with him at the helm, 18-1 in his career. You're almost certain to lose that bet on the spread, so even if the Colts win, you stand to lose $10, unless somehow the game reaches 34-27, which it won't.Goat, remind me to always gamble against you.
BrutusKhan
Hilton Stations MGM
Mirage Leroy's Imperial
Palace Harrah's
Rio Palms
LV Offshore Comparison
Sportsbook.com | BoDog
11/28 9:00 PM
Pittsburgh 197
Indianapolis Picks
48o/u
-8.5 47½o/u
-8.0 48o/u
-8.5 48o/u
-8.0 48o/u
-8.5 48o/u
-8.0 48o/u
-8.0 47½o/u
-8.5 47½o/u
-8.0 -115 48u-115
-8 -115
PITT-QB-Roethlisberger-Probable
LVSC Money Line: Pittsburgh (+300), Indianapolis (-400)
Copy & pasted very poorly from a Vegas odds web site, but despite the expected solid play of Big Ben, Pitt still gets 8 to 8.5 points, and the over under is still 48. So, conventional wisdom is going with the Goat on this one.
I've already said my peace on where I see this game going, I wanted to point out that the spread, and odds were taking into account Big Ben being back, and Goats picks were fairly on with what he'd have gotten in Vegas.
Doug
November 28, 2005 at 09:50PM View BBCode
Stardust CaesarsHilton Stations MGM
Mirage Leroy's Imperial
Palace Harrah's
Rio Palms
LV Offshore Comparison
Sportsbook.com | BoDog
11/28 9:00 PM
Pittsburgh 197
Indianapolis Picks
48o/u
-8.5 47½o/u
-8.0 48o/u
-8.5 48o/u
-8.0 48o/u
-8.5 48o/u
-8.0 48o/u
-8.0 47½o/u
-8.5 47½o/u
-8.0 -115 48u-115
-8 -115
PITT-QB-Roethlisberger-Probable
LVSC Money Line: Pittsburgh (+300), Indianapolis (-400)
Copy & pasted very poorly from a Vegas odds web site, but despite the expected solid play of Big Ben, Pitt still gets 8 to 8.5 points, and the over under is still 48. So, conventional wisdom is going with the Goat on this one.
I've already said my peace on where I see this game going, I wanted to point out that the spread, and odds were taking into account Big Ben being back, and Goats picks were fairly on with what he'd have gotten in Vegas.
Doug
whiskybear
November 28, 2005 at 10:08PM View BBCode
You will never find 3:1 odds in Vegas on an 8.5-point underdog. That was a pretty stupid bet.
BrutusKhan
If I bet $100, and the spread was 9, and I got 3:1 odds, it'd be a dumb bet, because the Lions can't win. But that game was only 3 points, and I cleaned up!
Now, back to the spread, does anybody have the exact math most bookies use in 'buying' down points? I've forgotten, as I rarely, rarely used it. But, I promise, 3:1 is not far off. May even be low.
Doug
November 28, 2005 at 10:23PM View BBCode
I don't remember the math, but I want to say to buy down that many points is close to it, maybe closer to 2.5 to 1, but close. USUALLY, its the Lion vs the Falcons that's got this big of a spread.If I bet $100, and the spread was 9, and I got 3:1 odds, it'd be a dumb bet, because the Lions can't win. But that game was only 3 points, and I cleaned up!
Now, back to the spread, does anybody have the exact math most bookies use in 'buying' down points? I've forgotten, as I rarely, rarely used it. But, I promise, 3:1 is not far off. May even be low.
Doug
drunkengoat
You could try 3:2.
November 28, 2005 at 10:25PM View BBCode
Half that doesn't sound bad... I really just spouted out something I thought was fair.You could try 3:2.
BrutusKhan
The team wagered on has only to win the game outright. The amount you lay or take for each game is different and fluctuates at any given time.
BUYING POINTS:
You may move a point spread up to 3 points in your favor. To do this, the player must lay an extra 15 % for each 1/2 point he or she buys in their favor. EXAMPLE - The line on a game is 6.5 . The player chooses to bet the favorite, and wishes to buy the point spread down to 5 flat . The player has moved the spread down a total of 1 1/2 points. The player must lay $1.55 to win $1.00 .
30% for each 1 point. Hmm... 8.5 points x 30% is 255%, which is as I guessed, about 2.5 to 1.
I took this straight from Vegasodds.com
Doug
http://www.wagepage.com/payoffs.html
And here's where I get the line from:
http://www.vegasodds.com/NFL.html
The other post was from a different site that showed all the different Casino's, but I forgot how I got to that site!
[Edited on 11-28-2005 by BrutusKhan]
November 28, 2005 at 10:27PM View BBCode
MONEY LINE WAGERS:The team wagered on has only to win the game outright. The amount you lay or take for each game is different and fluctuates at any given time.
BUYING POINTS:
You may move a point spread up to 3 points in your favor. To do this, the player must lay an extra 15 % for each 1/2 point he or she buys in their favor. EXAMPLE - The line on a game is 6.5 . The player chooses to bet the favorite, and wishes to buy the point spread down to 5 flat . The player has moved the spread down a total of 1 1/2 points. The player must lay $1.55 to win $1.00 .
30% for each 1 point. Hmm... 8.5 points x 30% is 255%, which is as I guessed, about 2.5 to 1.
I took this straight from Vegasodds.com
Doug
http://www.wagepage.com/payoffs.html
And here's where I get the line from:
http://www.vegasodds.com/NFL.html
The other post was from a different site that showed all the different Casino's, but I forgot how I got to that site!
[Edited on 11-28-2005 by BrutusKhan]
drunkengoat
But wait. Technically, I'm potentially losing up to $60 for that particular bet, so it makes sense that I receive $20 if the Colts win... It's confusing, because my initial bet is $20... And I'll be gaining an even 1:1 payout if I win, but paying out 3:1 if I lose. So I've got the most to lose and the least to gain. Way to go, me...
November 28, 2005 at 10:32PM View BBCode
By this reasoning, I should only receive $6.67 if the Colts win tonight. Weak.But wait. Technically, I'm potentially losing up to $60 for that particular bet, so it makes sense that I receive $20 if the Colts win... It's confusing, because my initial bet is $20... And I'll be gaining an even 1:1 payout if I win, but paying out 3:1 if I lose. So I've got the most to lose and the least to gain. Way to go, me...
BrutusKhan
Whether we think he'll win the bets or not, is another story. But, if you were to want to place bets on Pitt tonight, through vegas/bookie, you aren't going to be getting much better than Goat's opponents got.
Doug
Goat-the games not even, as suggested. Getting even odds on a 8.5 point game is almost unheard of, so realistically, he's giving you $20 for free, where I come from at least. Not looking at whose playing who, if you said, I got a guy willing to give me an even line on a game where the spread is 8.5, I'd say you found a moron. Now, if you then said we had to give up 3:1, I'd say ok, we are overpaying a little, but let's go. If you then said, but wait, it's on the Pitt/Indy game, I'd say, I'll pass. I actually DISAGREE w/ Vegas on this game, & like Pitt to cover/maybe win.
But, it's not smart to go around saying Vegas is wrong, because they rarely are.
[Edited on 11-28-2005 by BrutusKhan]
November 28, 2005 at 10:33PM View formatted
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Although, I should say, I agree you can't bet this game straight, as noone is going to want to pay the 2.5:1 odds you'd need to get to justify it, but given that Goat's not paying the 10% FEE on 3 bets combined, I think overall, he's not doing so bad for himself.
Whether we think he'll win the bets or not, is another story. But, if you were to want to place bets on Pitt tonight, through vegas/bookie, you aren't going to be getting much better than Goat's opponents got.
Doug
Goat-the games not even, as suggested. Getting even odds on a 8.5 point game is almost unheard of, so realistically, he's giving you $20 for free, where I come from at least. Not looking at whose playing who, if you said, I got a guy willing to give me an even line on a game where the spread is 8.5, I'd say you found a moron. Now, if you then said we had to give up 3:1, I'd say ok, we are overpaying a little, but let's go. If you then said, but wait, it's on the Pitt/Indy game, I'd say, I'll pass. I actually DISAGREE w/ Vegas on this game, & like Pitt to cover/maybe win.
But, it's not smart to go around saying Vegas is wrong, because they rarely are.
[Edited on 11-28-2005 by BrutusKhan]
drunkengoat
$20 from Manager 1... Roethlisberger played, and Pitt lost.
$20 from Manager 2... Indy beat the 14-point spread (he changed the spread to 14 after he discovered I misinformed him of the location of the game)
-$10 from Manager 2... Less than 60 points were scored in the game. That's my mistake.
On $50 total thrown down, I come out with $30 up. Guess I didn't do so badly.
November 29, 2005 at 05:10AM View BBCode
Either way, here's how my payouts will look.$20 from Manager 1... Roethlisberger played, and Pitt lost.
$20 from Manager 2... Indy beat the 14-point spread (he changed the spread to 14 after he discovered I misinformed him of the location of the game)
-$10 from Manager 2... Less than 60 points were scored in the game. That's my mistake.
On $50 total thrown down, I come out with $30 up. Guess I didn't do so badly.
whiskybear
November 29, 2005 at 07:29AM View BBCode
Just barely. You really fucked up changing the spread to 14.
drunkengoat
November 30, 2005 at 03:14PM View BBCode
Meh, well, I'd have had a guilty conscience had I taken his money on a misinformed bet... Guess the gambling world isn't ready to merge with morality.Pages: 1