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yankeekid
Post season odds thing
September 10, 2005 at 03:01PM View formatted
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Can someone please tell me why the Indians have a 70% chance of making the playoffs and the Yankees have 33% chance when the Indians are only a half game in front of us??
FuriousGiorge
"What are those? YANKEEZ ROXORS!!!!!!!!11111111"
September 10, 2005 at 03:04PM View BBCode
I will anticipate the next question:"What are those? YANKEEZ ROXORS!!!!!!!!11111111"
tysonlowery
Here's a couple things people aren't realizing about the Yankees and things that are factoring into those calculations.
The Yankees play a lot of games on the road the next 3 weeks. They have 8 home games and 13 away to Clevelands 13 home and 7 away. Teams win slighlty more often at home.
The Yankees have a lot of games left against "good" bad teams. 12 games against Toronto and Baltimore, who both have good 3rd order winning percentages.
And the Indians have the best expected winning pct in the A.L.
Here's another thing that isn't in this equation. The Indians close the season with 3 games against the White Sox - who will have clinched by then I'm sure. I think the White Sox will rest their key players. The Yankees close the season against the Red Sox. Even if the Sox have clinched, I can't imagine they'd rest Manny, Big Papi, and Damon with a chance to keep the Yanks out of the playoffs.
[Edited on 9-10-2005 by tysonlowery]
[Edited on 9-10-2005 by tysonlowery]
September 10, 2005 at 03:12PM View BBCode
I don't claim to understand 2nd or 3rd order wins - but I think a simple analogy is the RPI.Here's a couple things people aren't realizing about the Yankees and things that are factoring into those calculations.
The Yankees play a lot of games on the road the next 3 weeks. They have 8 home games and 13 away to Clevelands 13 home and 7 away. Teams win slighlty more often at home.
The Yankees have a lot of games left against "good" bad teams. 12 games against Toronto and Baltimore, who both have good 3rd order winning percentages.
And the Indians have the best expected winning pct in the A.L.
Here's another thing that isn't in this equation. The Indians close the season with 3 games against the White Sox - who will have clinched by then I'm sure. I think the White Sox will rest their key players. The Yankees close the season against the Red Sox. Even if the Sox have clinched, I can't imagine they'd rest Manny, Big Papi, and Damon with a chance to keep the Yanks out of the playoffs.
[Edited on 9-10-2005 by tysonlowery]
[Edited on 9-10-2005 by tysonlowery]
ME
September 10, 2005 at 03:15PM View BBCode
Look at the bottom of the playoff odd report, it explains a few things. It does take into account home/away games, I'm not sure if it takes into account future schedule, and it definately doesn't take into account teams benching their good players for the final week.
tysonlowery
It has to take into account Future Schedule from how I'm reading it. It definitely doesn't take into account resting players.
September 10, 2005 at 03:19PM View BBCode
I might have worded that weirdly. I was trying to point out reasons why the Yankees have a lesser percentage than the Indians for the Wild Card based on that simulation. Home/Away, Future Schedule, and Expected winning pct are the 3 things that I could deduce.It has to take into account Future Schedule from how I'm reading it. It definitely doesn't take into account resting players.
FiveToolPlayer
Being a Sox fan, all I'm hoping for this weekend is for the Red Sox not to get swept.
September 10, 2005 at 03:32PM View BBCode
I think the Indians also have 7 games left against the Royals. No idea if that plays into the formula you guys are talking about.Being a Sox fan, all I'm hoping for this weekend is for the Red Sox not to get swept.
tysonlowery
Here was one line of thinking I had while flipping between the Red Sox-Yankees and Angels-White Sox games last night.
I'm pulling for the Yankees against the Sox, and the Angels OR Oakland. If Cleveland can get the wild-card, I don't want to have to go through Boston and the White Sox to get to the WS. If the AL West team finishes with a better record than the AL East winner, Boston or the Yankees would play the White Sox in the opening round.
September 10, 2005 at 03:43PM View BBCode
As a Cleveland fan, I can't figure out who to pull for in some of these series.Here was one line of thinking I had while flipping between the Red Sox-Yankees and Angels-White Sox games last night.
I'm pulling for the Yankees against the Sox, and the Angels OR Oakland. If Cleveland can get the wild-card, I don't want to have to go through Boston and the White Sox to get to the WS. If the AL West team finishes with a better record than the AL East winner, Boston or the Yankees would play the White Sox in the opening round.
INDIANSFORLIFE
September 10, 2005 at 07:10PM View BBCode
I just want to get in. I think we would have a chance against either Sox. :mad:
tdski5319
Does this season remind anyone of 94-95? When the strike ended the 94 season, the year cleveland broke out, I believe Cleveland was trailing only Chicago in the division. Some 11 years later, after another rebuilding run, can they repeate what they did in the 90s or is it just a coincidence.
September 12, 2005 at 11:40PM View BBCode
I moved out of Cleveland at the wrong time. This year is something special. They are only 5.5 back of Chicago... they play six of the last nine against them. The ChiSox are not playing very well right now. I do predict the tribe will make the playoffs, but I'm making no promises on the division.Does this season remind anyone of 94-95? When the strike ended the 94 season, the year cleveland broke out, I believe Cleveland was trailing only Chicago in the division. Some 11 years later, after another rebuilding run, can they repeate what they did in the 90s or is it just a coincidence.
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