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luminafire

Lumina's Picks (Week 1)

November 20, 2015 at 10:15PM View BBCode

It's that time again. Opening kickoff for the final season of the eighties and it's been awesome seeing how the league has changed from 1979 until now. Here's to another decade of awesomeness here in the FHFL and the first predictions thread of the year. So far we've only seen preseason action and it's hard to take into account how a lot of teams will match up because as usual, not everyone is playing everybody to avoid injury, but hopefully I get these right.

San Jose Cyclons (0-0-0) @ Cleveland Bluejackets (0-0-0)

Analysis: San Jose is a good example of the opposite of what a lot of us do-- he hasn't taken the hammer to his team with trades but he's still got a team that looks decent for the future and all of his draft picks so kudos on him. Damon Shaw will be playing for his whopping thirteenth season with the franchise with his twelfth opening day start. Kevin Fitzhugh, though talented, has mental barriers to overcome before he should be allowed to take the reigns of such a prestigious franchise but he's a great #2. Cleveland has been patiently building over the past couple of years and this game will be a good test of where they're at. Ben Lowrey has grown into a decent starter at age 28 and all-round they have a great roster in terms of players on the offense. The defense has a lot of holes in it although they have a great secondary. San Jose's defense is pretty much solid right now so I'll have to give them the edge but an upset is not impossible and if Cleveland can sort out its defense in the next few drafts before Lowrey gets too old, they could be dangerous.

Prediction: San Jose 23-13


Brooklyn Giants (0-0-0) @ Las Vegas God (0-0-0)

Analysis: The promising young QB Paul Nichols and the Giants face Ralph Davenport and the Las Vegas God. The God as always with a good set up on the offensive line although one of their tackles, Obie Price, could be a weak link. Davenport perhaps underrated, but highly interception prone will have a chance to make a name for himself late in his career with new target Justin Colella, the 12th overall pick in the draft who could be a real game changer for this team. Vegas has spent the past few years making investments in its defense which boasts a strong secondary, an abundance of corners that they should perhaps consider trading, and a pretty good defensive line overall. Their linebacking group is a little weak, but overall, a team I would be very concerned about rushing against or passing against. I find myself rooting for Brooklyn a lot because they've picked up things very quickly and they're making good moves. I'm jealous of their offensive line, their defense is a few drafts away from being really dope and I find all they're really missing is a stronger group of WRs to make some decent noise. It's a very good matchup overall although both of these teams may struggle during the rest of the season. I think that Paul Nichols is a more trustworthy quarterback at the end of the day and he has enough weapons around him to eek out a win.

Prediction: Brookyln 17-14


Portland Kingsnakes (0-0-0) @ Los Angeles Dawgs (0-0-0)

Analysis: The former Copperheads making a move to Oregon and changing their names to the Kingsnakes will march into LA on opening kickoff and face against the Dawgs. So far these predictions have pitted two strong quarterbacks against one another (perhas indicating there is a fairly abundant amount of decent QBs these days) and this one is no different as the always-elite Colt Cooper tries to shut down Bob Berry who is still trying to justify the faith of LA management as the man to replace Bill Songy who looks like he'll spend the last year of his career on the inactive roster if he isn't waived altogether. It's always hard to know how seriously to take the preseason, but LA has looked okay thus far. They've got some good things going on on offense, a blance albeit not elite offensive line, but the defense is certainly a ways away. Portland, of course, another team that is not keen of massive rebuilding is mostly relying on the same team by and large that has delivered countless winning seasons to them in the past decade. Cooper is getting up there in age and although he's easily been a top five quarterback almost every year since he's come into the league, he still doesn't have a ring to show for it and I doubt the Dawgs, in their current form, are going to stop him. Portland's defense is certainly not without massive holes, but Berry may not be able to capitalize like Cooper can. This may be a bloodbath.

Prediction: Portland 42-17


Florida Purple Knights (0-0-0) @ Memphis Stingers (0-0-0)

Analysis: Tragically for Freddie Greisen, perhaps one of the most elite quarterbacks of all time to be stuck on a team where he couldn't make the most of his talents, may have run out of time. After another loosing season, Florida pulled the trigger in the draft and took the second quarterback selected in the draft, Darnell Clay. Clay, a powerful thrower who is a powerful tackle breaker may not have much more luck than Greisen unfortunately as he did not look good in his only preseason start thus far with a QBR of 36.2. The problem in Florida is pass protection as Clay took five sacks and spent the majority of his single preseason start under pressure not being the most agile of signal callers. They seem much more set up to block the run and they've got the backs to do it. In an attempt to distance themselves from their former owner, the TigerCats have moved to Memphis and started calling themselves the stringers, which is an accurate name as they've taken a consistently failing roster and grinded out some spectacular wins last year. With the first draft under the new GM's control, the team has made some moves to tighten up the defense and Matt Boreland is starting to become a legitimately feared name around the league all of a sudden. Longtime wide reciever Gabriel Watson may not be a factor this year as Father Time has made a "spectacular catch" on him, but new WR Jerry Carr and veteran Pete Martin are probably going to become some often-mentioned names this year. Gotta go Memphis. Florida's defense isn't that bad, but their offense has some structural problems.

Prediction: Memphis 14-10


St. Louis Lions (0-0-0) @ Miami Monsoon (0-0-0)

Analysis: Two good owners with two teams that will definetely not be pushovers this season face off against one another. St. Louis has some limitations with its roster. There are some holes on defense and the line is not as good as it could be. Scott Mitchell will be getting the start once gain hoping to do better this time around, but this is a QB who needs everyone around him to be ontop of their game and this line is succeptable to pressure. Miami, in a surprising move, trades Wingate back home to Syracuse and gives the start to Doug Patton who is a really good pocket passer with the benefit of a strong line an okay run game but more importantly a pretty tight specialized defense although it's not straightforward. Miami with the win to put faith in von's decision to let go of Wingate.

Prediction: Miami 28-20


Rochester 45s (0-0-0) @ Minnesota Salt Crocodiles (0-0-0)

Analysis: Rochester is really an alarming team because for the life of me I cannot pin down every intricacy than has been put into this team. With a totally inaccurate green QB they went al the way to the Sim Bowl and din't get blown out. They exemplify my point about everything around the QB working, including the defense which makes the QB almost a non-factor. Minnesota unfortunately, has probably the highest potential by far of any team because of its training regiments and its draft picks is still not going to make doing much for another year and since Glenn Smith is getting ever-closer to declaring, that may be more a victory for Minnesota than any W. Look for this team to wipe out half of the league next year. Interception-magnet Don Wilson could be the best thing this team could ask for.

Prediction: Rochester 17-0


San Diego Yipee Express (0-0-0) @ Monstreal Snipers (0-0-0)

Analysis: It remains to be seen, but this could be a very good year for San Diego. Carl Thornbladh, who may be the best fifth round draft pick for a QB ever has finally declined in his aggression enough to be a real threat behind a pretty good offensive line, some great recievers and a defense that may be underestimated. Still, with most of these weapons available to them for a few seasons now, they've been unable to capitalize so this will be a pretty telling game. Montreal has a pretty proven record to be able to win. Their quarterback is still very green and the offensive line is maybe a draft away from beind solid, but the defense is coming along. I wouldn't be surprised by a SD upset, but I think it's unlikely even if Carl Thornbladh looks a little more solid than Hoyle Thomas based on skills. Mentally, Thomas is the more even keeled QB.

Prediction: Montreal 21-13


Buffalo Federalists (0-0-0) @ New England Soviets (0-0-0)

Analysis: A hell of a game to kick off week one, not much needs to be said about either team. New England really was a victim of poor luck last year, but they've got and have had one of the best maintained and built teams around the league, they've worked on cutting down the penalties, and in what may honestly be the best move for them, Joe McKoy is still their quarterback. Just like in real life, Tim Tebow is not really throwing tight spirals down field or anything, but he's the posterchild for B+ accuracy QBs who never were popular around here until Tebow starting blowing teams away, but there's only one and while the offense is in the process of some restructuring, the defense is young and impressive which will be a test for McKoy who struggled last year to put up the points his team needed to win the division which they didn't (loosing out to eventual champion, Syracuse). I look for both of these teams to put out a classic but I gotta give the edge to Joey because Buffalo's offense is not complete. Then again, on paper, they've never been "complete" and look how they've played...

Prediction: New England 24-20


Dallas Cowboys (0-0-0) @ New Orleans REBELS (0-0-0)

Analysis: It was a shame Dallas didn't complete its legendary journey last season, but they shook up a division that NO could always be penciled into winning by default for years and years and there isn't a lot keeping them from repeating last year's strong play. Billy O'Sullivan, for all his excellence, has proven not to be a Baylon Brees by any stretch and only was able to lock down the division after a masterful seven game win-streak to cap off the season but it looked like anyone's game for most of 1988. I'm looking for this to be another blockbuster match-up with long-ranging implications for both teams as they try to move forward. Dale Lowe looking better than ever at age 30 a great offensive line and a scary deep pool of WRs and RBs. They're defense is not looking too shabby at all. New Orleans has a great offensive line and Billy O'Sullivan looks like he's reached his peak and is looking to make 1989 his year. He's got protection, he's got weapons and he has a defense. New Orleans probably has this one but Dallas is likely to have another strong season.

Prediction: New Orleans 32-24


Louisville Leprechauns (0-0-0) @ New York Niphilim (0-0-0)

Analysis: Somehow, on the eve of turning thirty-seven Brandon Rozumek is still playing and looks like he is going to get the start for the last year of the 80's for Louisville unless they make some moves. He's lost some zip on his arm, but he's still accurate and he's still a great game manager supported by an alright offensive line and some good WRs. They made some impressive defensive investments and it's plain to see this team will be difficult to score against and they may not put up amazing scores, but the offense is not going to hand the other team the game, which could be all Louisville needs. It is one of the more stacked defenses I see right now in the FHFL and for a long time last year it looked like THEY might win the division. New York, shuffling their offensive line around a bit as some guys decline but Indiana Smith is another impressive veteran who may not have the best offensive line in front, but the man can scramble a little bit and has excellent reads and is calm in the pocket. They've got a strong defense, especially in the secondary, but it's not complete like Louisville's. This will be a battle of LOU's defense and New York's offense that will come down to Brandon Rouzumek's ability to manage the game he can no longer win on skill alone.

Prediction: Louisville 17-14 in overtime


Phoenix Reapers (0-0-0) @ Orlando Flippers (0-0-0)

Analysis: Mike Warrren rolls into Orlando to face off against Clarence Porter, another QB who has beaten Father Time, in what should be an entertaining game. Both of these teams have some real challenges ahead of them in terms of upgrading certain positions, but I still suspect they'll have decent .500 or slightly better seasons. Another two good QBs but Orlando has the better line and the better defense and could easily be a dark horse yet again this year, The offensive linemen for Phoenix aren't bad, but they're too focused on protecting the run and not the pass leaving a pretty good QB in Mike Warren vulnerable to what could prove to be an impressive defense coming out of the land of the dolphin helmets. Even at age 33 there isn't really a better game-managing QB out there who won't turn over the ball and even without Lamar Kapp, he's got two glue-handed WRs to make him look like he's 23 rather than 33. The linebackers are a little week and the secondary doesn't do anything to protect against big runs are the two main issues I see this season for the team, but Phoenix simply has a longer way to go to being a real contender but they are headed in the right direction and not taking huge gambles, just waiting to slowly and methodically build personel and keep draft picks.

Prediction: Orlando 17-10


Boston Bendovers (0-0-0) @ Pittsburg Steel Curtain (0-0-0)

Analysis: Another name change, but in the same ol' city of Pittsburg, Boston looks to snap a long string of unimpressive seasons by heading into the Keystone State to give Larry Martin and the Curtain a real problem. Boston has a dcent defense that is designed to put a lot of pressure on the quarterback and they have one of the better executing rosters in the league, but they still lack the skill to match their technical mastery of the game. Eugene Abott didn't impress last year but he does have a decent line ahead of him and the most sought after WR of the draft who mysteriously fell to #3. They could make a lot of noise this year with the right luck. It's going to take more than pressure to topple Larry Martin, however, who is behind an even better offensive line with a very deep offense at RB and WR. And their defense? Well it's Pittsburg. I see Boston doing better this year with the addition of Denver Redmond, but probably not against a team like Pittsburg which rarely has faulted. Then again, they had a slow start last season, so who knows?

Prediction: Pittsburg 25-11

Chichago hookers (0-0-0) @ Sasketchewan Chimeras (0-0-0)

Analysis: Probably the least tasteful of the franchise name changes, the um, hookers, head to Sasketchewan to face off against the Chimeras who have already dumped starting quarterback Dick Plunkett after just two seasons of develoment. Looking to speed up the clock on a another division title they go with the more stable ready-to-go veteran Walt Mills from Winnepeg, but he's thirty years old. Time will tell if this was the right move even if Plunkett proved to be more than a little green. Besides their name, however, I don't expect much from Chicago/Charlotte until proven otherwise. They took a great WR with the #1 overall pick, but Chicago has had talented players on their roster for years. With the same playbook and the same quarterback, I don't see much changing. Sasketchewan's fatal flaw has always been consistency in their roster, but Walt Mills is a stud and will make this trade look a lot better in this game.

Prediction: Sasketchewan 30-3


Syracuse Shaman (0-0-0) @ Tennessee Shawness (0-0-0)

Analysis: The 45's did it, so let's see what the story is going to be from the "other" New York team this year and if they can avoid the infamous Sim Bowl curse that seems to afflict teams right after they win the title. An interesting thing has gone on in this division, however, as Syracuse has traded Eric Elric, off of the best year of his career, back to the team that drafted him and made him a star in Washington. They themselves, have acquired their own draftee Paige Wingate from Miami at the prime of his career with the same offensive line that made the most interception-prone QB in football and a washed-up placeholder who is now on the inactive list look like Peyton Manning and they look to see if what they've learned can make one of the best QB in the FHFL even better. Tennessee up against the clock as many of their longtime starters, including QB Ozzie Kanakanui who is now 33 and the player who was once the best overall player in the FHFL of all time, Jason Watts, who looks like he can't help this team at all any longer. Still, for this season at least, they still have the proverbial onslaught in a box on this offense, the defense is still tight and new additions like defense end Brad Rivers make you forget how old this team is getting. I think we're looking at a good old fashioned slugfest here and I really don't know who is going to take it.

Prediction: Syracuse 28-24


New Jersey Sharks (0-0-0) @ Washington Capitolists (0-0-0)

Analysis: It's hard for me to really analyze my own team objectively because I, at least, believe that this is going to be a great season for us. Every player in ever position is at least competent, if not a star. We exit the 80's the same way we came in with Eric "The Red" Elric, a quarterback that I failed. I completely mortaged my players on ratty old players desperate every season to try and get this man a championship and only let him go because I had to. With his steepest declines yet and no longer with the speed and hands he once had it's clear that this is the beginning of the end for the former #1 draft pick in 1980 but he's coming off a spectacular season with Syracuse and has weapon upon weapon here in Washington, his aggression, after almost a decade and in the twilight of his playing days has finally come down to a B+. The defense is decent but with Sebastian Sinclair out for a month, a carefully constructed linebacker group is suddenly not as proficent as was planned. There is no other word to describe New Jersey other than scary. They are going to hit a huge wall in the salary cap next year and they are not going to be able to keep this roster they've assembled, but no roster comes CLOSE to being as stacked as Jersey is right now. If Cindrich hadn't been so unlucky last year (which it what it comes down to, luck) they would have rolled over this entire league and now that they are packed to the brim with A- players, anyone would have to pick them as favorites to at least make the Conference finals. We have the first QB selected in the draft waiting in the wings behind Eric, but a defense that was always good but never consistent is going to face a tough challenge tomorrow, especially without one of its best and well disciplined linebackers. Still, this offense has proven to be able to go down the field FAST off of a short pass or a bomb downfield and the run game is pretty nice. It'll come down to if Elric and Creed can stay away from being picked off and the defense can hold against this juggernaut team. I don't like my chances.

Prediction: New Jersey 38-21


Milwaukee Marauders (0-0-0) @ Winnipeg Jets (0-0-0)

Analysis: Last year? No good for the Jets. It came down to one thing, and one thing only: stopping the run. So what did Winnepeg do? They invested in two run blocking linebackers and switched it up for the third year QB out of Illinois, Dick Plunkett, who may not have had luck with the Chimeras in spite of being a first round pick, but he only can get better. He's one of the most accurate starting QBs in the game right now and although he's a little gun-shy if he can become a bit of a better game executor he could, at the very least, be one of the better game managers out there as he's unlikely to throw into coverage. This season will be a good test to see if the problem was really Plunkett or if he just didn't work with the offense in Sasketchewan. The Marauders are also another team that is going to hit a big salary cap problem sooner than later which is a shame because their coach is really talented and he has had to sort out the salary cap by dumping really good players in fireale trades for the entire time he's been in the league. Although Pirate didn't cause this problem but inherited it, let this be a lesson to those who think the path to victory is simply taking on everyone's picks. Still, for the moment, teams don't get much more stacked than what Pirate is sitting on and Bob Long has come a long way and grown into a good starter on a spectacular team on the offense and the defense. Winnepeg, as well as the rest of the league are going to be highly annoyed and discouraged, but there's not much you can do against a team with that many red letters. Then again, last season was not a homerun for Milwaukee by any stretch and Winnepeg has a long record of being a very well-coached team so we'll see. I'm excited for it personally.

Prediction: Milwaukee 28-21


Three Games to Watch
1. BUF @ NE*
2. SYR @ TEN
3. DAL @ NO

* Denotes Lumina's Game of the Week*

Injury Report: http://football.simdynasty.com/injuries.jsp?lid=830

Player Leader-boards (As of Preseason End, Will Not Apply to Regular Season Rankings)

Top 3 Quarterbacks (by QBR)
1. Earl Fawcett - STL (105.7)
2. Paul Nichols - BRO (99.5)
3. John Mannheim - SYR (93.6)

Top 3 Wide Receivers (by Yards)
1. Mark Whiskey - BRO (330)
2. Lewis Zimmerman - STL (305)
3. Wilson Bud - ORL (266)

Top 3 Running Backs (by Yards)
1. Jim McCullough - MIL (360)
2. Joe Rosenfels - DAL (350)
3. Eddie Farasopoulos - ROC (311)

Top 3 Defensive Players (by Sacks)
1. Brian Johnson - NJ (7)
2. Joe Hartwig - ROC (5)
3. Hank Thiele - NE, Herb Evans - MEM, Tyrone Brodnax - NO, Jay Erlandson - SD, Robert Jencks - MIL, Ward Stits - DAL, John Greene - BUF (4)

Top 5 Defensive Players (by Interceptions)
1. Sam Hicks - PHX, Chris Hartle - CHI, Alan Borhae - SJ (3)
2. Various (2)
3. Various (1)

Top 3 Defensive Players (by Passes Defended)
1. Sam Hicks - PHX (4)
2. Jerome Vogds - NJ, Chris Hartle - CHI, Alphonso Granger - BUF, Jason Sternaman - NO, Mel Williams - LV, Gordy Edgar - LV, John Nettles - MEM, Bobby Garrard - MON, Lou Minnis - MON, Mike Spence - MIL, Alan Borhae - SJ (3)
3. Various (2)

Top 3 Defensive Players (by Forced Fumbles)
1. John Hartwig (4)
2. Brian Johnson (3)
3. Herb Evans (2)

Top 3 Kickers (by FGM)
1. Pussyfut Patterson - BUF (12)
2. Ray Sapp - SJ (10)
3. Randy Cheever - SYR (9)

Top 3 Punters (by Yards)
1. Perry Chandler - CLE (1,431)
2. Rico Corazon - WAS (1,337) pure leet
3. Emil Jefferson - CHI (1,305)

[Edited on 11-21-2015 by luminafire]
Prideco

November 20, 2015 at 10:41PM View BBCode

Thnx for believing that I could score 11

Great read though

[Edited on 11-20-2015 by Prideco]
luminafire

November 20, 2015 at 11:22PM View BBCode

It's not anything against your offense but Pittsburg is reknowned for their offense
Prideco

November 20, 2015 at 11:53PM View BBCode

No offense taken...its just the 11.....just doesn't compute with the scoring system. Besides it messes up a square board.
luminafire

November 21, 2015 at 12:03AM View BBCode

I'm thinking a field goal and a TD late in the fourth with a two point conversion followed by another score by Pittsburgh. 3 + 8 = 11. I think Abbott isn't very accurate and against that defense in Pittsburgh, I forsee one or two turnovers.
1950srobot

November 21, 2015 at 05:30AM View BBCode

Mills being considered a stud for SASK? Not after the Preseason, and his overall numbers throughout his career.

Plunkett afforded WIN's Rd 1 upcoming, which hopefully will be in the upper 3rd of the Draft.

Went ahead and sent Mills away for Woods, who is older than the hills. But the Chimeras are only interested in a franchise QB through the Draft upcoming. The season ahead is lost, except to develop the prospects like CB Lott, RB Racoon, TE Greene, G Banks, T Toogood (and that's his real Sim name, not my opinion of him,) LB Sauls, DE Sawyer, S Braney.

Saskatchewan will win three games this season, tops.

I meant to say, too, Woods at QB is A Accurate to Mills' A- Accuracy. Mills threw 7 picks in the Preseason. Fack that guy. Career back-up at best. Woods will stink, but at least he'll stink with less INTs.



[Edited on 11-21-2015 by 1950srobot]
geosfreddy

November 21, 2015 at 08:08AM View BBCode

Boy some confidence in Minnesota by lumina. you have the 0 score correct but 17 is probably an error unless you meant each QTR---- lol...

This is a terrific read pure pleasure to read. Once again the effort and time shows.

Now for everyone GOOD LUCK in the season. Enjoy and give it 100% good soso or ahhhhhh....

Now can we get to December for the oof season pleeeeeeezzzzzzz.

[Edited on 11-21-2015 by geosfreddy]
nydru18

November 21, 2015 at 12:42PM View BBCode

love the amazing work man!
blakjakshalak

November 21, 2015 at 02:53PM View BBCode

Excellent read. It looks like a lot of work though:o

As to robot's comment, was very happy to get Mills. Tebow has been remarkably injury free so far over his career but having a quality backup is always a must.
montywop

November 21, 2015 at 03:30PM View formatted

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Wow...excellent read, thanks for doing this.
maldoyung

November 21, 2015 at 08:48PM View BBCode

In an attempt to distance themselves from their former owner, the TigerCats have moved to Memphis and started calling themselves the stringers, which is an accurate name as they've taken a consistently failing roster and grinded out some spectacular wins last year.


Memphis Stingers, not Stringers. :lol:
Cueball899

November 21, 2015 at 09:05PM View BBCode

Memphis(Hamilton) has a top quality coach now. They will always be a threat.
groovynusicman

November 21, 2015 at 09:29PM View BBCode

thanks man. you do a fantastic job on this. thanks." oh by the way on the way to a overtime loss we won 35-3".
geosfreddy

November 21, 2015 at 09:43PM View BBCode

Moe Corzine may as well enjoy his 15 minutes of fame as he ran all day for Minnesota perhaps the only good reel maker for the season. Facing last years Sim Finalist was there a revealing there. Now wow wee from the Finalist next game vs. Our current Champ when Will Benny Hinn step up to make the season film??

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