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smoldering
There are always a few teams in every league that seem to have it figured out, so I was wondering if anyone is willing to share any helpful hints. I'd looked through previous threads a bit and found advice that suggested basing it primarily on player speed. So I went with these settings:
80% Player Speed:
A+ Ultra Aggressive
A Aggressive
A- Moderate
B+ Conservative
B or lower Never Steal
10% Catcher Arm:
A Never Steal
B Conservative
C Moderate
D Aggressive
F Ultra Aggressive
10% Situation (never steal 2nd with runner on 3rd, moderate or conservative otherwise.)
I've gotten caught stealing 3 times in 3 attempts so far with these settings and am superbly confused, as I thought this would be a foolproof setup for a high percentage of success (even if I don't get many attempts out of it). Am I doing something wrong (like not giving some weight to all 5 categories) or is it just bad luck in a small sample?
"Secret Sauce" for stolen bases
October 17, 2015 at 01:46AM View BBCode
I've played with a number of different stolen base settings, but I can't seem to find a setting that gets me an acceptable stolen base rate (>70%) without completely cratering my stolen base attempts (something like one attempt every 10 games or something).There are always a few teams in every league that seem to have it figured out, so I was wondering if anyone is willing to share any helpful hints. I'd looked through previous threads a bit and found advice that suggested basing it primarily on player speed. So I went with these settings:
80% Player Speed:
A+ Ultra Aggressive
A Aggressive
A- Moderate
B+ Conservative
B or lower Never Steal
10% Catcher Arm:
A Never Steal
B Conservative
C Moderate
D Aggressive
F Ultra Aggressive
10% Situation (never steal 2nd with runner on 3rd, moderate or conservative otherwise.)
I've gotten caught stealing 3 times in 3 attempts so far with these settings and am superbly confused, as I thought this would be a foolproof setup for a high percentage of success (even if I don't get many attempts out of it). Am I doing something wrong (like not giving some weight to all 5 categories) or is it just bad luck in a small sample?
ballmark
October 17, 2015 at 03:03AM View BBCode
Your sub-settings are fine. But you only need 50% Player Speed and 50% Catcher Arm. This will get you the best balance between a player's speed and a catcher's ability to throw that speedster out.
kaycee617
The speed settings are close to what I have, though I have B+ and lower set to 'never steal (60% weight).' I think you need to be more aggressive with catcher arms, how many teams do you see with anything lower than B+? I have A as 'moderate' and the rest as 'ultra aggressive (39% weight).' I don't put much weight to the other factors, (literally, 1% to situation, 0 to score) and those shouldn't impact your success rate, but I have them ultra aggressive stealing second unless there are 2 outs.
One thing to remember is that league specific factors will impact your overall rate regardless of your settings. Looking over my league at the moment, its kind of a down time for catcher arms. My settings are basically designed to take advantage of that (though I have been using them with good success for a while), but in a league where everyone starts A+ armed catchers you would expect both the attempt rate and success rate to go down.
October 17, 2015 at 03:09AM View formatted
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I generally have good success rates, don't trace it exactly and I'm just coming out of a rebuild so I'm only now starting to care about the stats again, but this year I'm 81/102 through 60 games.
The speed settings are close to what I have, though I have B+ and lower set to 'never steal (60% weight).' I think you need to be more aggressive with catcher arms, how many teams do you see with anything lower than B+? I have A as 'moderate' and the rest as 'ultra aggressive (39% weight).' I don't put much weight to the other factors, (literally, 1% to situation, 0 to score) and those shouldn't impact your success rate, but I have them ultra aggressive stealing second unless there are 2 outs.
One thing to remember is that league specific factors will impact your overall rate regardless of your settings. Looking over my league at the moment, its kind of a down time for catcher arms. My settings are basically designed to take advantage of that (though I have been using them with good success for a while), but in a league where everyone starts A+ armed catchers you would expect both the attempt rate and success rate to go down.
loonatic
Why would you be less aggressive with two outs? Stealing 2nd with two outs and no runner on 3rd may provide the best cost-benefit ratio of any of the possible stealing situations.
I absolutely hate giving away extra outs on the base paths and so have become much more conservative - i.e., never steal with speed less than "A+" or "A", never steal with less than 2 outs, and "moderate" aggressiveness for catchers with "A" arms. My teams can reach 80+% success rates with those preferences, but generally attempt < 100 steals per season. I like to build speedy teams, but think that the advantages of speed are more related to things that will never show up on the stat sheet (ability to advance an extra base on hits such as going from 1st to 3rd on a single, ability to avoid double plays). Unlike stealing, those things aren't dependent on whether or not most catchers in your league have a rocket arm.
[Edited on 10-17-2015 by loonatic]
October 17, 2015 at 08:11AM View BBCode
Originally posted by kaycee617
but I have them ultra aggressive stealing second unless there are 2 outs.
Why would you be less aggressive with two outs? Stealing 2nd with two outs and no runner on 3rd may provide the best cost-benefit ratio of any of the possible stealing situations.
I absolutely hate giving away extra outs on the base paths and so have become much more conservative - i.e., never steal with speed less than "A+" or "A", never steal with less than 2 outs, and "moderate" aggressiveness for catchers with "A" arms. My teams can reach 80+% success rates with those preferences, but generally attempt < 100 steals per season. I like to build speedy teams, but think that the advantages of speed are more related to things that will never show up on the stat sheet (ability to advance an extra base on hits such as going from 1st to 3rd on a single, ability to avoid double plays). Unlike stealing, those things aren't dependent on whether or not most catchers in your league have a rocket arm.
[Edited on 10-17-2015 by loonatic]
Frunobulax
It does make sense to be more conservative when stealing 3rd with 2 outs.
October 17, 2015 at 02:13PM View BBCode
Your rates may be influenced by the catchers in the league. If you have a league with A+ arm catchers your rate will decline. And of course blazingly fast players. I always value speed a lot (more than most other owners - usually 6 or more starters have A or A+ speed), and have conservative settings (A- speed conservative, B+ never steal) - I usually end up with a success rate north of 75%.It does make sense to be more conservative when stealing 3rd with 2 outs.
WillyD
You'll never steal with these settings, as most catchers have red letter arms. I'd change this to conservative.
October 17, 2015 at 04:27PM View BBCode
Originally posted by smoldering
10% Catcher Arm:
A Never Steal
You'll never steal with these settings, as most catchers have red letter arms. I'd change this to conservative.
phen0m
10% Situation
40% Speed
50% Catcher Arm
Ultra Aggressive for A+ speed guys if they are close to maxed, just aggressive if they are low. Aggressive for A Speed if they are close to A+, moderate if they are low. Conservative for A-, never steal if they are low.
Conservative for A arm, Aggressive for B arm.
But im always tweaking it a little during the season depending on the catchers arms and my results so far.
For situation i go moderate for the first two on stealing 2nd and aggressive on stealing 2nd with 2 outs. then pretty much conservative or never steal for the rest.
October 18, 2015 at 12:57AM View BBCode
I always try to keep my % at least at 80 and do most of the time. I usually have my settings some where around10% Situation
40% Speed
50% Catcher Arm
Ultra Aggressive for A+ speed guys if they are close to maxed, just aggressive if they are low. Aggressive for A Speed if they are close to A+, moderate if they are low. Conservative for A-, never steal if they are low.
Conservative for A arm, Aggressive for B arm.
But im always tweaking it a little during the season depending on the catchers arms and my results so far.
For situation i go moderate for the first two on stealing 2nd and aggressive on stealing 2nd with 2 outs. then pretty much conservative or never steal for the rest.
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