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luminafire

Week Two Predictions

September 30, 2015 at 11:34PM View BBCode

Make Your Picks

Milwaukee @ Buffalo
Miami @ Cleveland
St. Louis @ Dallas
Las Vegas @ Hamilton
New York @ Louisville
Winnipeg @ Minnesota
Florida @ Montreal
Brooklyn @ New England
Washington @ New Jersey
Charlotte @ New Orleans
San Diego @ Orlando
Los Angeles @ Pittsburg
Boston @ Rochester
Tennessee @ San Jose
Syracuse @ Edmonton
Falcons @ Copperheads

Prediction for Week 2 MVP:

Vote for Game of the Week:
luminafire

October 01, 2015 at 12:13AM View BBCode

Milwaukee @ Buffalo
Reason: Bob Long had an impressive debut. Any team that can put up the numbers the Marauders did today after trading two franchise QBs in the span of a few weeks AND starting a lowly ranked rookie this franchise has my complete confidence. Now that he has the QB he personally drafted surrounded by all that talent zimmer accumulated, I think he'll carry on the Yeti tradition well this year and I predict he'll make it to the playoffs (which is why I traded his pick)

Miami @ Cleveland
Reason: I think that with Wingate, Miami has instant playoff hopes. They played really well today while Cleveland struggled carrying and passing the ball.

St. Louis @ Dallas
Reason: I pick Dallas for the upset. They've patiently and methodically been building their team over the past few years and have steadily gotten better. St. Louis has a well-built team but they've been on the downswing for a long time.

Las Vegas @ Hamilton
Reason: I guess I'm in a gambling mood today, but Hamilton similarly has steadily been building their team for a while. It's easy to forget they have one of the best wide receivers in the game. Vegas has an overly aggressive QB with low execution who is prone to mistakes and a weakening offensive line, a strength they used to heavily rely on.

New York @ Louisville
Reason: Louisville has been struggling for a long time while New York still is excelling with Rich's old mad scientist roster in spite of what groovy described as a disappointing draft. Looking at their performance today and the trend over the past number of years, we're talking about a playoff contender. Louisville only put up five points today. Since Jack Clark's retirement, this team has been searching desperately for an identity but I don't think they have the tools to find it this year.

Winnipeg @ Minnesota
Reason: Minnesota is gearing up for a rebuild it seems as they've lost Munster and other parts of their roster are aging. Winnipeg stumbled a bit last year but they still have the better quaterback, a productive running back and a solid defense although Minnesota's is nothing to sneeze at either. This is always one of the best games of the year so we'll see who wins part one.

Florida @ Montreal
Reason: Poor Florida. Solid line, the defense doesn't look awful on paper, one of the best running backs and the second ranked quarterback in the league but for the life of them, they cannot put up points. Montreal, as always, looks ready to take some big names down this year but we'll see if their consistency translates into a decent playoff run this year.

Brooklyn @ New England
Reason: I really like Paul Nicholas, he looks like he's going to be a great efficient quarterback for a long time who has a good arm and doesn't throw a lot of picks. Even though it ended up in a tie with fellow first round pick Dick Plunkett and Saksatchewan, Boston is another team that has been steadily building for a long time and I think they may become future rulers of that division, but it's hard to bet against Joe McKoy, no matter who it is, especially a rookie. They whooped Louisville today.

Washington @ New Jersey
Reason: Even with our revamped offense and defense, Kelly Cindrich is a beast who has yet to have his day. He's had a lot of bad days, but on his good days, he's the biggest dual threat in the league by far which might navigate Washington's insanely complicated new player schemes. We've yet to display the power to really put up points, so if Cindrich beats our D, it's all over. Porter is not that kind of QB and I knew that going into the trade, his success relies on both sides of the ball being worked effectively.

Charlotte @ New Orleans
Reason: Billy O'Sullivan is one of my favorite quaterbacks in the league. Charlotte skipped its first round in the draft after two previous disappointing drafts and hasn't really made any moves that would justify the upset here but you never know.

San Diego @ Orlando
Reason: Doug Peters is done. Keith Horne is too, but at least San Diego has someone else who can still sling it, and probably better than Horne could. Unless Orlando can capitalize on Carl Thornbladh's horrible decision making and execution, I can't see 33 year old Peters overcoming his recently declined throwing power which is at A- but I know for a fact is actually just barely above B+. Carl Thornbladh is a real deep threat and we know San Diego loved throwing it on every down even when they were working with an A- throw power QB. Then again, it's equally possible Carl Thornbladh throws a ton of picks and shoots himself in the foot.

Los Angeles @ Pittsburgh
Reason: LA lost its starting QB in today's game and back-up Bill Songy embarassed the team practically handing Boston the upset off a slew of turnovers and horrible passes. If not for Songy's horrible play and an offensive line that appeared unwilling to protect him, LA probably would not have lost as Mark Robinson barely completed any passes today. Pittsburg looks as mean as ever.

Boston @ Rochester
Reason: Even with today's upset, I can't really vote against the sim bowl champs on this one at home. Boston simply doesn't have the roster to compete with heavy hitters unless they score off of their mistakes and Rochester has a very intricately thought-out team built, hence the ring.

Tennessee @ San Jose
Reason: I looked at SJ's roster today. The amount of run blocking on that team is out of control. I like Ozzie Kanakanui-- a lot-- but if San Jose makes its opponents as one dimension as it looks like they have the ability to, I really don't know who can stop them. Damon Shaw pretty much has laughed in father time's face yet again and they destroyed New Orleans, which is by no means a pushover team.

Syracuse @ Edmonton
Reason: I've made it clear I don't believe in Eric Elric over the longterm when it comes to winning games, but I'm pretty sure they can win this one. They got wrecked today because it was one of the "off days" I keep trying to convince people exist when it comes to having #3 on your roster-- they got destroyed today, Elric was sacked six times, had no TDs, no picks but he had no real answer in the 42-7 slaughter a QB with those stats, at first glance, shouldn't allow to happen. Still Saskatchewan is always up and down and Plunkett has yet to prove himself. They had a great record last year and should have been able to beat Brooklyn today, new QB or not plus Plunkett is a complete variable and possible first round bust.

Falcons @ Copperheads
Reason: Colt Cooper is one of my top five QBs in the league along with McKoy, O'Sullivan, Shaw and Indiana Smith when he's healthy. I think the new owner of the Falcons has a lot of adjusting to do while he tries to figure out why the previous team owner's team, which looks good on paper, has not had a winning season in many years. They had a good game today against Pittsburg, but it's still hard to bet against Colt Cooper and his track record of winning big.

Prediction for Week 2 MVP: I predict Eric Elric bounces back after his horrible season opener. I predict 3 TDs, 1 INT, 300+ yards passing

Vote for Game of the Week: Shawnees vs. Cyclones (two playoff teams looking to go 2-0 with the coaches and the players to do it. I stand by my prediction but I think this will be a close one decided within three points in San Jose's favor.)

[Edited on 10-1-2015 by luminafire]

[Edited on 10-1-2015 by luminafire]
1950srobot

October 01, 2015 at 02:40AM View BBCode

Originally posted by luminafire
Plunkett has yet to prove himself. They had a great record last year and should have been able to beat Brooklyn today, new QB or not plus Plunkett is a complete variable and possible first round bust.


Plunkett was pretty decent today actually--40-25-226, no picks (no TDs alas,) 62% Completion, 5.6 per, and 13 first downs for a 77.7 QB rating. He didn't win the game, he didn't lose the game.

As for beating Brooklyn despite the rook QB, I can only say it was a Division game and almost 90% of the time it's going to be a split. Don't know why, have no idea, BRO can be godawful and still manage a win vs the Chimeras. It's part of the Sim logic that dictates some Rivals will always play exceedingly well vs certain others. Which is irksome, but I've never figured a way to combat it, given the way these games play out with injuries, turnovers, ect.
luminafire

October 01, 2015 at 02:56AM View BBCode

Merely not loosing the game isn't enough, I meant moreso that the performance didn't blow me away. When you consider how easily they won the division last year I just thought there'd be enough on that team besides that QB to deliver the win over a Brooklyn team that, last year's records would suggest, had a lot more to work on that just swapping out the QB.

Bust is a strong word, but that F aggression, C execution and C attitude just worry me and the results, although it's one game, seem to portray what those possible nails in the coffin for Plunkett's development translate too-- doesn't throw a lot of picks, he's accurate, but it's going to be hard to raise his throw power, he's shaky in the pocket (F) aggression, doesn't take a lot of risks even calculated ones and his attitude is also going to limit his development too so what we see now out of Plunkett is not far off from what he will become, although slightly better. His throwing stats aren't bad-- like I said, I wanted to draft him at pick 33-- but his personality stats just seemed to tell the story of that entire game. No, he didn't lose the game, but if he's not the kind of QB who is going to WIN games, then who is he really? A C execution game manager?

I might be being harsh, but I've just been watching him very carefully since he declared.

[Edited on 10-1-2015 by luminafire]
vonjoho

October 01, 2015 at 11:39AM View BBCode

I like Plunkett overall, yea ok he won't develop as well as some of the others, but he won't turn the ball over very much either. Sas has a solid run game that they can lean on and they shouldn't have to ask to much of their QB because of that which means Plunkett can play and thrive in a system designed to move the ball down the field one step at a time. I think with the right gameplan, Plunkett can be a top tier QB in QBR and TD:INT ratios. Got to keep that run game strong though
1950srobot

October 01, 2015 at 06:25PM View BBCode

Vs Syracuse, Plunkett through three quarters: 18-12-64 and a TD.

SASK has run for 105 yards at 5.6 a clip. But I can say, for now, Plunkett passes the eye test. I'm waiting for the Big Turnover, the INT, but he hasn't done it yet. It WILL come, sooner or later, but thankfully he isn't a train wreck.

On QBs like Plunkett, I recall a lot of criticism of low ThPr, high ThAc QBs, and some owners consider them useless. I have to admit I adhere to that notion, generally. But also, in the real-world NFL, many QBs have Blue-Level arms and succeed just as much as the Red-Level arms. I'd say Peyton Manning has a Blue-Level, Brady has a Red?
Traxman

October 01, 2015 at 08:26PM View formatted

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St. Louis on the downswing for a long time!!!! We were 25-7 the last two years. Seriously!?!?
vonjoho

October 01, 2015 at 08:45PM View BBCode

Personally I prefer accuracy over throw power... I don't really care how far you can throw the ball if you can't hit the broad side of a barn doing so you are no good to me
luminafire

October 01, 2015 at 11:18PM View BBCode

Damn. That was a winnable game but Jersey killed us in the first quarter with two scores and even though we kept them reasonably contained afterwards and they missed two easy field goals, we ended up loosing by that same 14 points but I learned a lot about this team that really just came together yesterday. Accidentally had Sam Bishop under center in the third quarter because I forgot to change it when I acquired Porter, Watts was kind of disappointing in his debut, but in the fourth quarter, I saw, for a moment, how I envisioned this offense working. Being down two offensive linemen probably didn't help but it sucks knowing I have much harder teams ahead and after week 17 it's always those winnable ones that slipped away you always end up regretting. Good game from the Sharks. Cindrich, like I said, is a beast if you let him get out of hand and their line was a lot better than I thought. We couldn't get the pressure on them I wanted and when we did, Jersey stepped up
geosfreddy

October 01, 2015 at 11:31PM View BBCode

I still say jersey / montreal / buffalo Have something going this year when it comes to 2 teams saltie Croc expects to see breaking a few bad seasons. Each has a lot on the line tomorrow. So many nice games to choose from in week 3.

Joey as usual do we have another blooy ovetime delay???? Nay nay We say.
luminafire

October 01, 2015 at 11:56PM View BBCode

Jersey's line is ridiculous. The linebackers that blitzed Cindrich are no slouches but I could not get pressure on him for the life of me. Cleveland's line isn't shabby either but Lowery was on pressure almost every play even without the blitz so that was very telling

[Edited on 10-1-2015 by luminafire]
JoeyMac08

October 02, 2015 at 03:59AM View BBCode

Throwing power isn't only how far a QB can throw, it's also how long it takes for the QB to release the ball. So the higher it is the less sacks and fumbles from hits. Lower it is the slower that release is resulting in more sacks and fumbles.


And of course we have an OT game! Wouldn't be a week 3 without one!
Aparicio

Really?!) I did Not realize this about QBs.

October 03, 2015 at 06:32PM View BBCode

Originally posted by JoeyMac08
Throwing power isn't only how far a QB can throw, it's also how long it takes for the QB to release the ball. So the higher it is the less sacks and fumbles from hits. Lower it is the slower that release is resulting in more sacks and fumbles.


And of course we have an OT game! Wouldn't be a week 3 without one!


No kiddin', JoeyMac?

I Never knew this data, that Throw Power ALSO influences release speed. This is an eye-opener to me, if it is fact.

>>Where did You learn this Valuable tidbit, eH?

-AP :puzzled:
JoeyMac08

October 03, 2015 at 07:27PM View BBCode

I can't recall exactly but it was in a thread talking about the accuracy vs power debate. It came from one of the owners with more experience than me. It mentions it briefly in the game guide. High power equals quicker release.
Aparicio

October 03, 2015 at 07:42PM View BBCode

Kool!)

TY, JM

-AP

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