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chrisandlainey

Let's complain about the MVP formula

August 30, 2015 at 12:04PM View BBCode

In looking over the MVP votes in a league I'm in, i finally came to the decision that the MVP "voting" is ver much misaligned with what happens in actual MLB voting. Given this is supposed to simulate MLB, here are a few things that just don't make sense.

ABE LOVES middle infielders - they get the highest positions bonuses out there. However, over the past 30 years, a SS has won the NL MVP only twice, and in the AL, it happened three times. And this is during a time when we have seen some of the greatest offensive SS all playing at the same time.

Things are even bleaker for the second baseman. From 1984 to 2014, there have been two NL win the award and only one in the AL (compared to four PITCHERS that have won during that same time period).

The catcher gets the second highest bump, but inMLB from 1984 to present, only three MVP Trophies went to the backstop, 2 in the AL and one in the NL.

On the other hand, corner outfielders receive no love from ABEs voters, but MLB voters can't get enough of them. The chart I'm looking at doesn't break down by what actual OF position primarily played, so I'm going by memory and judgement here, but I came up with seven corner guys over the past thirty years in the AL, and a staggering fourteen in the NL.

I just feel that there should be some type of formula that captures the overall best offensive season, and award the MVP to that individual. I am even OK with giving bonuses based on win totals and how close the teams were to making playoffs, since that somewhat happens in real life. I just don't like that the positions are such a critical part of the formula.

And for the record, that would screw me out of the award for this season in my league. I just find it really odd though that I have a catcher with 16 HR, seventy RBI, hitting around 315 beating out another guy with pretty much the same batting average, but with 35 dingers and 105 RBI. And both teams are playoff contenders.

[Edited on 8-30-2015 by chrisandlainey]

[Edited on 8-30-2015 by chrisandlainey]

[Edited on 8-30-2015 by chrisandlainey]
WillyD

August 30, 2015 at 03:29PM View BBCode

Originally posted by chrisandlainey

On the other hand, corner outfielders receive no love from ABEs voters, but MLB voters can't get enough of them.


Actually RFers get the 4th highest bonus in the sim. SS, 2B, C, RF

It's a large bonus too!

CF gets a modest one, and LF gets little, if any.
chrisandlainey

August 30, 2015 at 04:49PM View formatted

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I see that now about right field. For some reason the game guide goes out of order, so I read it as forty instead of 140. Left field and first get no bonus at all.

The actual order per the guide is ss at 190, catcher 185, right field 140, second base 130, then a sharp drop to third base and center field both at thirty points.



[Edited on 8-30-2015 by chrisandlainey]
Mongrel

August 30, 2015 at 06:39PM View BBCode

Well Reading the [url]Article that explains the SimD MVP Calculations[/url] I think it's a pretty good argument that the formula itself is pretty solid.

I think the points you make may be a bit more influenced by some shortcomings in this game and how players end up in certain positions.

First off, the way Sim players are assigned positions isn't really that good. I know many managers, like myself, very often will convert a player to a more suitable position than they were drafted. We all see middle infielders drafted that will never do a good job in their position. But I know I see plenty of owners who don't seem to care at all about Range and Arm and play a guy according to the position ABE assigns them. So I think it's quite possible there are many middle infielders in the Sim that really have no business playing in that position.

Second, breaking down defesive skill to two components (Range, and Arm) the way the Sim does it, really isn't a very good comparison to real baseball. I imagine a great deal of real-world gold-glove outfielders would likely be red-letter range and arm, and guys I'd be putting in middle infield in the Sim.

In real-world baseball, there is much more looked at than what we would call range and arm strength that ultimately determines where a player ends up.

Finally, we know that the Sim Drafts do a pretty good job of giving us something that comes pretty close to real baseball as far as pitching and offense are concerned. The balance between hitting and pitching gives results where the stats we see on our sim players seem similar to the numbers we see in real baseball. For example, things like 40 HR seasons, 200 Hit seasons, 20 wins by a starter, batting average are all pretty much on par with real baseball.

Defensive metrics, I really can't talk about. I know as a fan of baseball I don't pay much attention to defensive metrics. We watch ball games and get a real good feel for who can play their positions well and who is weak defensively. There are also so many subtleties to defense that just don't really happen in the Sim.

So my point is that maybe the average talent defensively in the Sim is just a bit too far off "real" baseball, and we just don't realize it, since it's a hard thing to judge in this simulation. I know it seems just about every real good team I've had has had superstar shortstops, both in terms of hitting and defensive skill. Intuition tells me it should not be that way.

One last thought, under the CP system, I personally would favor a player who will be stronger defensively in terms of who gets CP's and who does not. So if I had two players who I figure to have equal potential as hitters, If one of those two projects to have infield range, he's going to pretty much get the CP's every time. So perhaps the CP system itself favors developing better defense over someone who maybe is a David Ortiz type player.

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