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Old Forum Index » Sim Forums » Baseball Game & Site Questions » In Variable Development leagues, how much does being a "bust" hurt improvement chances
allenciox
http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&statsorimps=imps&id=11541068
At the time of my posting this he is a C overall pitcher, 18 years old, and he is 0/23 in improves. Now my analysis is that a C overall pitcher under 20 should convert about 28% of his chances, so the probability that he is a "normal" player with this improvement rate is about 1 out of 2000. So I take it he is either a bust or a bust in the minors/gem in the majors. So is his probability of converting like 14%, 7%, or 0%? Should I just waive him rather than trying to do anything with him?
In Variable Development leagues, how much does being a "bust" hurt improvement chances
June 16, 2015 at 10:02PM View BBCode
Does it cut them in half, or in quarter, or possibly make it 0 (they won't ever improve)? I am new to variable development and the game guide isn't clear on how much it hurts. So here is a player I drafted in the first round this year:http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?player=nobody&statsorimps=imps&id=11541068
At the time of my posting this he is a C overall pitcher, 18 years old, and he is 0/23 in improves. Now my analysis is that a C overall pitcher under 20 should convert about 28% of his chances, so the probability that he is a "normal" player with this improvement rate is about 1 out of 2000. So I take it he is either a bust or a bust in the minors/gem in the majors. So is his probability of converting like 14%, 7%, or 0%? Should I just waive him rather than trying to do anything with him?
tworoosters
Sometimes a bust just improves at a lower rate, sometimes they hardly improve at all, but the other issue is he may not be "a bust", he may be a "bust in the minors" or some form of enigma or eureka. The only really obvious thing with this player is that his curve is not normal .
June 17, 2015 at 03:08PM View formatted
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The problem with variable development is , well that it is variable.
Sometimes a bust just improves at a lower rate, sometimes they hardly improve at all, but the other issue is he may not be "a bust", he may be a "bust in the minors" or some form of enigma or eureka. The only really obvious thing with this player is that his curve is not normal .
hclobo
Pitchers who are "busts", usually get 0 or 1 improvements at 18 on the minors. Eurekas and Enigmas usually do better than that. Bust/Gems are also more busts than gems. Instead of 60-70 ICs in the minors, they might collect 40-50 in the majors and they will need years of this before becoming an average pitcher, and that's while costing the team many losses. So usually and 0/25 as of now is not a good sign at all.
Also, the D-/B+ split, will make it very hard for this prospect to get beyond C/A+. A High C/A+ could be an average/good pitcher, a low C/A+ will be a bad pitcher.
Sorry... :(
June 18, 2015 at 05:08PM View BBCode
My two cents.Pitchers who are "busts", usually get 0 or 1 improvements at 18 on the minors. Eurekas and Enigmas usually do better than that. Bust/Gems are also more busts than gems. Instead of 60-70 ICs in the minors, they might collect 40-50 in the majors and they will need years of this before becoming an average pitcher, and that's while costing the team many losses. So usually and 0/25 as of now is not a good sign at all.
Also, the D-/B+ split, will make it very hard for this prospect to get beyond C/A+. A High C/A+ could be an average/good pitcher, a low C/A+ will be a bad pitcher.
Sorry... :(
Frunobulax
June 19, 2015 at 03:25PM View BBCode
I agree. Maybe he'll catch up a little, but he sure looks like a bust in the minors, and if he is, he's pretty much a lost cause. If you are not stretched for CPs you could keep him around for another year, for the off chance he's an enigma and starts converting like crazy next season.
Mongrel
That being said, this guy has either had a terrible time improving, so there's a good chance he's not on the typical curve.
Outside that, even with normal improvements, I wouldn't have very high expectations for this guy. He may someday hit B Velocity, but not the guy I'd expect to ever be a top starter.
[Edited on 6-24-2015 by Mongrel]
June 24, 2015 at 05:04PM View BBCode
I've played 15 seasons now in vaiable development, and I can say it's never easy to tell exactly what type a player is. I can't honestly say i've seen a pure 'bust' or pure 'gem' player. It seems to me at least that eureka and enigmas are much more common, and harder to identify.That being said, this guy has either had a terrible time improving, so there's a good chance he's not on the typical curve.
Outside that, even with normal improvements, I wouldn't have very high expectations for this guy. He may someday hit B Velocity, but not the guy I'd expect to ever be a top starter.
[Edited on 6-24-2015 by Mongrel]
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