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robbiemc

Stealing home

May 30, 2015 at 04:29AM View BBCode

I just read on the forum where one of what I believe to be a veteran owner was saying there have been no steal of home attempts that he can remember.

Please help me change this.

I have a team in the Billy Gardner League that just about lives and dies by pitching and base stealing, the Washington Senators.

This is also a pretty good league with some good owners. Is there any way I can spring a steal of home on one of them? I have two candidates that might be ideal to try it, two infielders named Parks and Steen.

Let me know.

rmc
Bonnie_Brae

May 30, 2015 at 07:00AM View BBCode

I don't think it's ever happened.
robbiemc

May 30, 2015 at 08:20AM View formatted

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No, but maybe if I whine and cry enough they will fix it so my guys can try....probably be out then I can whine and cry about that....I will have to be the consummate spoiled brat on this.
paulcaraccio

May 30, 2015 at 05:34PM View BBCode

haha, go get 'em...I'll be rooting for you.
WillyD

May 30, 2015 at 06:10PM View BBCode

There should be a way for it to happen every once in a while, without letting owners abuse it.

Maybe give a base runner a 0.01% chance per speed point to steal home? This number would be modified by the steal setting and other factors such as score, situation, and the handedness of the pitcher. The catcher's arm would be a minor factor.

conservative (-1%)
moderate (0)
aggressive (+1%)
ultra aggressive (2%)
runners on 1st and 3rd (+2%)
pitcher's arm score (-0.01% per point of arm score)
left-handed pitcher (+1%)
right handed pitcher (-2%)

Other suggestions welcome!
Kingturtle

June 01, 2015 at 08:28PM View BBCode

Why even have it in the manager preferences if it isn't a thing?
robbiemc

June 02, 2015 at 07:32AM View BBCode

The catcher's arm has zero factor in a steal of home...all he would be required to do is catch the ball. In the time we feature here the steal of home was a relevant part of several players arsenal.

Players of the modern era known to steal home are Jackie Robinson, Rod Carew, Paul Molitor (that surprises me..but I never followed his career much), Vic Power, Torii Hunter, and the guy who I always will remember maybe only did it the one time--I have never checked....was Chico Ruiz of the Cincinnati Reds in 1964.

I was just a kid then but was a Cardinal fan. They were chasing the Phillies and had no shot. Well the Reds were playing the Phillies late in the season and Ruiz, a utility infielder was on third base, 9th inning.

I believe there was less than two outs because of the uproar over it.

Frank Robinson the Reds best hitter was standing in facing Art Mahaffey in a scoreless game. Robinson was challenging for the lead in RBI. There were two outs and two strikes on him. Mahaffey saw Ruiz go from third as he wound up. He was so shook that his throw to the plate was so bad catcher Clay Dalrymple couldn't handle it.



It shoock up Robinson who lost an RBI..

It shook up Mahaffey because he lost the game.

It shook up Phillies manager Gene Mauch because he lost confidence in Mahaffey and the chain reaction to that was his over use of other key pitchers down the stretch the rest of that year cause an historic collapse that is still remembered by baseball historians and reviled by Phillies fans.

A stolen base is a weapon that is not only decisive but it is fun to watch.

One of my favorite memories is watching a little kid on my little league team get hit by a pitch, steal second steal third and then steal home.

Unfortunately after that he jumped up and flipped off the pitcher and got tossed out of the game..

But you gotta hand it to him for determination and guttiness.
hclobo

June 02, 2015 at 02:01PM View BBCode

For the sake of the argument, Catcher's Arm could be considered if its score reflects not just pure arm strength and accuracy, but an overall ability to keep players from stealing bases, including pitch selection and awareness.

Also, the side that the batter is batting is very important for a steal home, it's a lot harder to steal home with a left-handed hitter.

Finally, steals of home are successful about 30% of the time, but they are attempted only about 0.2% of the time that a runner is on 3rd. That is 1 every 500+ PA with a runner on 3rd.

Which means that it is a highly selective decision.
tm4559

June 02, 2015 at 03:20PM View BBCode

Originally posted by robbiemc
The catcher's arm has zero factor in a steal of home...all he would be required to do is catch the ball. In the time we feature here the steal of home was a relevant part of several players arsenal.



for the kazillionth time, this simulation is not meant to simulate the fifties. admin has said, we discussed, repeatedly, and the simulation is meant to simulate the baseball that is played TODAY. whether or not it does that well is another discussion. but this seems to crop up repeatedly.
WillyD

June 02, 2015 at 03:29PM View BBCode

Yeah, the only thing in SimD meant to be like the 1950's is:

League structure of 16 teams (there are now some 24 team leagues)
Lack of free agency (although there are now leagues with this)
eragon

June 02, 2015 at 09:56PM View BBCode

Originally posted by WillyD
Yeah, the only thing in SimD meant to be like the 1950's is:

League structure of 16 teams (there are now some 24 team leagues)
Lack of free agency (although there are now leagues with this)

And no DH.
Kingturtle

June 03, 2015 at 12:48PM View BBCode

Robbie, here's the game: http://www.baseball-reference.com/boxes/PHI/PHI196409210.shtml

What a gem it was. The Reds swept that series to get within 3.5 games of the Phillies. The Reds then won their next 5 games, and were in first place by 0.5 on September 27. But then went 1-4 in their last 5 games, including 2 losses to Philadelphia in Cincinnati on the last two days, giving the Cards the pennant.

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