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allenciox
CPs ICs
0 26
1 33
2 41
3 49
4 57
5 64
However, my calculations differ and also suggest that you might "almost never" want to put 2 CPs on somebody: 1 CP will always get more ICs for that player than 2 will.
It is possible my misunderstanding is wrong, so let me give my assumptions and the associated calculations. If they are wrong, please do correct me.
My understanding is that after every game, there are 3.33 minor league IC chances (note that I am not counting the position change IC that is extra): it is actually 3 for the first two games of a three game series, and 4 for the last game of the series. One of those ICs is given only to a minor league player with 0 or 1 CP placed upon them, and I am assuming it is completely random which one it is placed on. In other words, if you have 10 players with 0 CP and 1 player with 1 CP (e.g. in a 5-5-5-2-2-1 scheme) each of the 11 players would get 1/11 of a chance of getting that IC. For the other 2 1/3 ICs, the computer would draw a slip from a hat, where every player has one slip for each CP invested plus one additional slip: so a player with 0 CPs would have 1/35 of a chance to be drawn, one with 1 CP would have 2/35, and one with 5 CPs would have 6/35.
So suppose you follow the 5-5-5-3-2 CP assignment suggested in the game guide. That means that the three people with 5 CPs would only be considered for 2 1/3 of the ICs each game, and for each of those, they would have 6/35 of a chance of being drawn: so 2 1/3 * 6/35=.4 per game. This works out pretty close to the table above: multiplied by 162 game season that results in 64.8 average ICs over the season. But what about the 3 and the 2 CPs? This is when we start seeing differences. The player with 3 CPs will have 2 1/3 * 4/35=.26667 chances per game, or only 43.2 ICs per season, which is significantly lower than the table suggests. What about for the player with 2 CPs? They will have 2 1/3 * 3/35=.2 chances per game, or only 32.4 ICs per season. Note that that is below even what the chart shows for 1 IC! For the ten players that have no ICs assigned, there is 2 1/3 * 1/35= .06667 a game, plus 1/10 of a chance of getting that IC reserved for one of them, so a total of .16667 per game, or 27 over the course of a season; close to the number shown in the table above.
So what about the 1 IC case? Well, suppose you follow a 5-5-5-2-1 distribution. In that case the 5s and the 2 still result in the same ICs, as above. The 1 IC individual will have 2 1/3 * 2/35 = .13333 chances per game plus 1/11 of a chance of getting the one IC reserved for the 0 and 1 CP individuals, or .22424 total per game; or 36.3 over the course of a season. Notice that this is higher than the one that got two points assigned! And the chances of the 0 CP individuals has actually gone down to compensate (they now have one chance in 11 for the special IC instead of 1 in 10). So in this case, the table above looks more like:
CPs ICs
0 25.5
1 36
2 32!!
3 43
4 54
5 65
So, if my assumptions are all correct, I would suggest a different strategy than the one suggested in the game guide. You just identify three tiers of individuals in your 15 minor leaguers: those that you really want to foster, those that you want to push a little bit, and those you want to ignore. By using a 5-5-5-1-1-1-1-1 distribution, you reduce the chances of your "to-be-ignored players" of getting ICs, you keep the same high chance for your 5s, but now your 1s are close to as good as 3s are: here is the resulting table in scenarios like that:
CPs ICs
0 24
1 35
2 32!!
3 43
4 54
5 65
Am I missing something, or does this make sense?
I think that the Game Guide is wrong about CPs->ICs table
April 30, 2015 at 03:56AM View BBCode
This is for System 2 minors. Here is the table:CPs ICs
0 26
1 33
2 41
3 49
4 57
5 64
However, my calculations differ and also suggest that you might "almost never" want to put 2 CPs on somebody: 1 CP will always get more ICs for that player than 2 will.
It is possible my misunderstanding is wrong, so let me give my assumptions and the associated calculations. If they are wrong, please do correct me.
My understanding is that after every game, there are 3.33 minor league IC chances (note that I am not counting the position change IC that is extra): it is actually 3 for the first two games of a three game series, and 4 for the last game of the series. One of those ICs is given only to a minor league player with 0 or 1 CP placed upon them, and I am assuming it is completely random which one it is placed on. In other words, if you have 10 players with 0 CP and 1 player with 1 CP (e.g. in a 5-5-5-2-2-1 scheme) each of the 11 players would get 1/11 of a chance of getting that IC. For the other 2 1/3 ICs, the computer would draw a slip from a hat, where every player has one slip for each CP invested plus one additional slip: so a player with 0 CPs would have 1/35 of a chance to be drawn, one with 1 CP would have 2/35, and one with 5 CPs would have 6/35.
So suppose you follow the 5-5-5-3-2 CP assignment suggested in the game guide. That means that the three people with 5 CPs would only be considered for 2 1/3 of the ICs each game, and for each of those, they would have 6/35 of a chance of being drawn: so 2 1/3 * 6/35=.4 per game. This works out pretty close to the table above: multiplied by 162 game season that results in 64.8 average ICs over the season. But what about the 3 and the 2 CPs? This is when we start seeing differences. The player with 3 CPs will have 2 1/3 * 4/35=.26667 chances per game, or only 43.2 ICs per season, which is significantly lower than the table suggests. What about for the player with 2 CPs? They will have 2 1/3 * 3/35=.2 chances per game, or only 32.4 ICs per season. Note that that is below even what the chart shows for 1 IC! For the ten players that have no ICs assigned, there is 2 1/3 * 1/35= .06667 a game, plus 1/10 of a chance of getting that IC reserved for one of them, so a total of .16667 per game, or 27 over the course of a season; close to the number shown in the table above.
So what about the 1 IC case? Well, suppose you follow a 5-5-5-2-1 distribution. In that case the 5s and the 2 still result in the same ICs, as above. The 1 IC individual will have 2 1/3 * 2/35 = .13333 chances per game plus 1/11 of a chance of getting the one IC reserved for the 0 and 1 CP individuals, or .22424 total per game; or 36.3 over the course of a season. Notice that this is higher than the one that got two points assigned! And the chances of the 0 CP individuals has actually gone down to compensate (they now have one chance in 11 for the special IC instead of 1 in 10). So in this case, the table above looks more like:
CPs ICs
0 25.5
1 36
2 32!!
3 43
4 54
5 65
So, if my assumptions are all correct, I would suggest a different strategy than the one suggested in the game guide. You just identify three tiers of individuals in your 15 minor leaguers: those that you really want to foster, those that you want to push a little bit, and those you want to ignore. By using a 5-5-5-1-1-1-1-1 distribution, you reduce the chances of your "to-be-ignored players" of getting ICs, you keep the same high chance for your 5s, but now your 1s are close to as good as 3s are: here is the resulting table in scenarios like that:
CPs ICs
0 24
1 35
2 32!!
3 43
4 54
5 65
Am I missing something, or does this make sense?
tworoosters
:puzzled::puzzled::puzzled::puzzled::puzzled::puzzled::puzzled:
May 01, 2015 at 07:18PM View BBCode
Originally posted by tm4559
tl/dr
:puzzled::puzzled::puzzled::puzzled::puzzled::puzzled::puzzled:
ccox
It means "too long/didn't read." I find the information interesting, and wish someone would comment on it...someone who knows a little more how ICs are distributed. If it's true it would certainly be game-changing, counter to conventional wisdom around here.
May 01, 2015 at 07:57PM View BBCode
Originally posted by tworoosters
Originally posted by tm4559
tl/dr
:puzzled::puzzled::puzzled::puzzled::puzzled::puzzled::puzzled:
It means "too long/didn't read." I find the information interesting, and wish someone would comment on it...someone who knows a little more how ICs are distributed. If it's true it would certainly be game-changing, counter to conventional wisdom around here.
tworoosters
May 01, 2015 at 08:21PM View BBCode
Thanks for the info regarding tm's cryptic short hand .
Frunobulax
I'm pretty sure that
[quote][i]Originally posted by allenciox[/i]
One of those ICs is given only to a minor league player with 0 or 1 CP placed upon them [/quote]
is flat out wrong, because the ICs observed in the system 5 leagues match the description in the game guide.
I would assume that one CP per game is distributed weighted according to the CPs, and all other CPs are assigned at random. Having 540 CPs, this gives a base of (540-378)/15 = 25,2 ICs per player, and 8,1 ICs per CP allocated.
Still, you might try to pester support about clarifying the issue. I tried ([url=http://forum.simdynasty.com/viewthread.php?tid=399149#pid2117782]http://forum.simdynasty.com/viewthread.php?tid=399149#pid2117782[/url]) but never got a satisfactory answer.
Regards, F.
May 01, 2015 at 08:29PM View formatted
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The game guide is wrong about the IC distribution. I had similar thoughts, and used a trial league to check it out - when I assigned less than 20 CPs, something really funny happened: All players started to get roughly the same number of ICs. (I tried a 5/5/1/1/1/1 distribution.)
I'm pretty sure that
[quote][i]Originally posted by allenciox[/i]
One of those ICs is given only to a minor league player with 0 or 1 CP placed upon them [/quote]
is flat out wrong, because the ICs observed in the system 5 leagues match the description in the game guide.
I would assume that one CP per game is distributed weighted according to the CPs, and all other CPs are assigned at random. Having 540 CPs, this gives a base of (540-378)/15 = 25,2 ICs per player, and 8,1 ICs per CP allocated.
Still, you might try to pester support about clarifying the issue. I tried ([url=http://forum.simdynasty.com/viewthread.php?tid=399149#pid2117782]http://forum.simdynasty.com/viewthread.php?tid=399149#pid2117782[/url]) but never got a satisfactory answer.
Regards, F.
WillyD
I remember reading a thread that mentioned someone figured out that one of the 3 ICs per game went only to players with 0 CPs, so he gave everyone 1 CP except his best prospect, who then went on to get 162 ICs that season!
May 02, 2015 at 01:21AM View BBCode
It just out-dated is all. There used to be only 15 CPs, and only 3 ICs were given out per game.I remember reading a thread that mentioned someone figured out that one of the 3 ICs per game went only to players with 0 CPs, so he gave everyone 1 CP except his best prospect, who then went on to get 162 ICs that season!
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