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Frunobulax
consider this pitcher, who's clearly a gem in the minors:
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=11334712&statsorimps=imps]http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=11334712&statsorimps=imps[/url]
Now, I wanted to know if he's a gem or a bust in the majors, so I let him pitch in the majors for a half seasons at OS22, figuring this should give me a first indication of what he is. Since he converted 2 of 18 ICs at OS22 (which is pretty good for a high A- pitcher) I assumed he is a gem in the majors too. Just to make sure I gave him another half season at OS23, where he converted 0/23. Bugger.
It'd be easy if I was rebuilding, since then I would simply keep him in the minors for a few more seasons. But I have one, maybe two more years to make a run at a championship, and could really use his services, at least in the playoffs. Of course he's out of options.
So, to make a long story short: With conversions 2/18 at OS22 and 0/23 at OS23, do you think he's a gem or a bust?
Regards, F.
[Edited on 4-27-2015 by Frunobulax]
Gem or bust in majors?
April 27, 2015 at 02:37PM View BBCode
Hi,consider this pitcher, who's clearly a gem in the minors:
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=11334712&statsorimps=imps]http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=11334712&statsorimps=imps[/url]
Now, I wanted to know if he's a gem or a bust in the majors, so I let him pitch in the majors for a half seasons at OS22, figuring this should give me a first indication of what he is. Since he converted 2 of 18 ICs at OS22 (which is pretty good for a high A- pitcher) I assumed he is a gem in the majors too. Just to make sure I gave him another half season at OS23, where he converted 0/23. Bugger.
It'd be easy if I was rebuilding, since then I would simply keep him in the minors for a few more seasons. But I have one, maybe two more years to make a run at a championship, and could really use his services, at least in the playoffs. Of course he's out of options.
So, to make a long story short: With conversions 2/18 at OS22 and 0/23 at OS23, do you think he's a gem or a bust?
Regards, F.
[Edited on 4-27-2015 by Frunobulax]
WillyD
I wouldn't rule out a normal curve either. I've had a few pitchers improve like that before. What was he at draft, C-/C+?
April 27, 2015 at 05:25PM View BBCode
I'd guess he's a bust in the majors, gem in the minors. The 5-for-38 in the minors at age 23 in the minors with an A overall (or at least near A split) is a pretty darn good conversion rate.I wouldn't rule out a normal curve either. I've had a few pitchers improve like that before. What was he at draft, C-/C+?
don4593
April 27, 2015 at 07:58PM View BBCode
I would keep him in the minors until you absolutely need him. Seems to be a bust in the majors. Not worth risking losing the ic's
Frunobulax
Yeah, something like that. He improved to A overall in 6 seasons, that's a gem curve (considering that he spent one season in the majors where he didn't improve well).
Guess I'll really have to keep him in the minors until he's 27 or so. What a waste.
April 28, 2015 at 06:04PM View BBCode
Originally posted by WillyD
I wouldn't rule out a normal curve either. I've had a few pitchers improve like that before. What was he at draft, C-/C+?
Yeah, something like that. He improved to A overall in 6 seasons, that's a gem curve (considering that he spent one season in the majors where he didn't improve well).
Guess I'll really have to keep him in the minors until he's 27 or so. What a waste.
WillyD
April 28, 2015 at 10:28PM View BBCode
If he hits mid to high A overall, and you need a pitcher to compete I wouldn't hesitate to bring him up. Even with a gem curve in the minors, high A overall isn't going to improve that much.
Frunobulax
He should improve about half a grade furter, or a bit better since he's a gem. The trouble is, my run will be pretty much finished at the end of this season, so I'd have to bring him up this season. At OS24, that's a bit early...
April 29, 2015 at 01:32PM View BBCode
Originally posted by WillyD
If he hits mid to high A overall, and you need a pitcher to compete I wouldn't hesitate to bring him up. Even with a gem curve in the minors, high A overall isn't going to improve that much.
He should improve about half a grade furter, or a bit better since he's a gem. The trouble is, my run will be pretty much finished at the end of this season, so I'd have to bring him up this season. At OS24, that's a bit early...
dirtdevil
April 29, 2015 at 02:31PM View BBCode
he's already A overall. while he might improve more in the minors if you leave him there, he's at worst your second best starter now. If you're competing, call him up. the object is to win titles, not develop every player to his maximum. usually those two objectives are complementary, but in this case they aren't. if you're contending now and your window is about to close, what good does it do you to leave one of your two best arms in the minors so that he's at his maximum skill while you're rebuilding? call him up and pitch him.
Frunobulax
I don't get why most people think so short term. Why waste the talent of a future ace, just to have him for one playoff run? In a playoff field of 8 teams, your chance of winning the WS is roughly 1/8th, unless you have a dominant team (which I haven't). Looking at my team I'd say I have a 10% chance of winning the WS without Okrie. Replacing my crappy 4th starter with him might increase my chance of winning it to 15%. So I do what, trade his future for a 5% chance of winning one single title? No way.
Right now he's a low A. Sure he has some value, but he's not outstanding. Given he's a gem in the minors, he may make A+ in 3-4 years, giving me a player of immense trade value - if he doesn't fit my age structure I can always trade him and speed up the rebuilding. Or maybe I manage to trade a few other players once my run is complete and can get back in the hunt in a few years, in which case he'll be my ace in the rotation.
[Edited on 4-29-2015 by Frunobulax]
April 29, 2015 at 04:24PM View BBCode
Originally posted by dirtdevil
he's already A overall. while he might improve more in the minors if you leave him there, he's at worst your second best starter now. If you're competing, call him up. the object is to win titles, not develop every player to his maximum. usually those two objectives are complementary, but in this case they aren't. if you're contending now and your window is about to close, what good does it do you to leave one of your two best arms in the minors so that he's at his maximum skill while you're rebuilding? call him up and pitch him.
I don't get why most people think so short term. Why waste the talent of a future ace, just to have him for one playoff run? In a playoff field of 8 teams, your chance of winning the WS is roughly 1/8th, unless you have a dominant team (which I haven't). Looking at my team I'd say I have a 10% chance of winning the WS without Okrie. Replacing my crappy 4th starter with him might increase my chance of winning it to 15%. So I do what, trade his future for a 5% chance of winning one single title? No way.
Right now he's a low A. Sure he has some value, but he's not outstanding. Given he's a gem in the minors, he may make A+ in 3-4 years, giving me a player of immense trade value - if he doesn't fit my age structure I can always trade him and speed up the rebuilding. Or maybe I manage to trade a few other players once my run is complete and can get back in the hunt in a few years, in which case he'll be my ace in the rotation.
[Edited on 4-29-2015 by Frunobulax]
dirtdevil
it's not about thinking short term, it's about keeping sight of what's the top priority. most complete rebuilds take about 8 seasons. at that point your guy will be 32. so you can leave him down until he maybe hits A+ around 28 and lose now, then lose for another 8 years to finally have him on a competing roster at top power for three years before he starts to decline then another 2-3 at less than top skill. you'll maximize his development that way but you'll also minimize your chances of winning. since winning is the goal, not player development, I'd call him up.
when you have a chance to win, take it. if it were my guy I'd call him up and try to win now. then I'd trade him away for a king's ransom and use him to jumpstart the rebuild. even as a gem in the minors there's no guarantee he'll make A+ overall. and really, what's the difference in trade value, anyway? as an A overall 25-26 year old he's probably a four-piece guy, if you're any good at trading. he's not going to turn into a 5-piece guy if he hits A+ at 28-29. so you're not really losing anything by trying to win now other than a couple of extra points that don't matter a whole lot in the long run anyway.
the object of the game is to win. calling him up maximizes your chances to do that now without substantially damaging your chances to win down the road. leaving him down to chase a few extra conversions at the expense of being competitive is silly, imo.
April 29, 2015 at 05:15PM View BBCode
Originally posted by Frunobulax
Originally posted by dirtdevil
he's already A overall. while he might improve more in the minors if you leave him there, he's at worst your second best starter now. If you're competing, call him up. the object is to win titles, not develop every player to his maximum. usually those two objectives are complementary, but in this case they aren't. if you're contending now and your window is about to close, what good does it do you to leave one of your two best arms in the minors so that he's at his maximum skill while you're rebuilding? call him up and pitch him.
I don't get why most people think so short term. Why waste the talent of a future ace, just to have him for one playoff run? In a playoff field of 8 teams, your chance of winning the WS is roughly 1/8th, unless you have a dominant team (which I haven't). Looking at my team I'd say I have a 10% chance of winning the WS without Okrie. Replacing my crappy 4th starter with him might increase my chance of winning it to 15%. So I do what, trade his future for a 5% chance of winning one single title? No way.
Right now he's a low A. Sure he has some value, but he's not outstanding. Given he's a gem in the minors, he may make A+ in 3-4 years, giving me a player of immense trade value - if he doesn't fit my age structure I can always trade him and speed up the rebuilding. Or maybe I manage to trade a few other players once my run is complete and can get back in the hunt in a few years, in which case he'll be my ace in the rotation.
it's not about thinking short term, it's about keeping sight of what's the top priority. most complete rebuilds take about 8 seasons. at that point your guy will be 32. so you can leave him down until he maybe hits A+ around 28 and lose now, then lose for another 8 years to finally have him on a competing roster at top power for three years before he starts to decline then another 2-3 at less than top skill. you'll maximize his development that way but you'll also minimize your chances of winning. since winning is the goal, not player development, I'd call him up.
when you have a chance to win, take it. if it were my guy I'd call him up and try to win now. then I'd trade him away for a king's ransom and use him to jumpstart the rebuild. even as a gem in the minors there's no guarantee he'll make A+ overall. and really, what's the difference in trade value, anyway? as an A overall 25-26 year old he's probably a four-piece guy, if you're any good at trading. he's not going to turn into a 5-piece guy if he hits A+ at 28-29. so you're not really losing anything by trying to win now other than a couple of extra points that don't matter a whole lot in the long run anyway.
the object of the game is to win. calling him up maximizes your chances to do that now without substantially damaging your chances to win down the road. leaving him down to chase a few extra conversions at the expense of being competitive is silly, imo.
Frunobulax
We're talking about the Orlando Cepeda Majors league, where the level is pretty high and a lot of ace SPs couldn't find a taker for 3 pieces.
There are about 20 A overall SPs and 10 relievers in this league, but no A+ pitcher. If he should make it to A+, he'll be something really special.
But that's not the point. The point is:
Yeah, and an inning has 3 outs, unless it is the last inning and it hasn't. Never take points off the board. Offense wins games, defense wins championships. (OK, wrong sport. In real life I'm a football guy.) For gods sake, these kinds of commonplace statements add nothing to a discussion.
I am a moneyball kind of manager. I can express my decisions in player value, expected runs and wins. And here we go again: I'll make the playoffs this season anyway (very likely), so calling him up gives me only a very slightly improved chance to win the world series. If I leave him in the minors for maybe 3 years, the extra improvements may be worth 3-5 extra wins a season when he finally comes up - and while he's down I won't be competing, so I don't lose anything in these years.
My decision makes my team better in the long run. Trade value will take care of itself, since a rebuilding team should always be able to make trades that improve the overall value in the long run.
So you see, I'm not basing my decisions on gut feeling, but follow a long-term plan for my team. You would do things differently - fine with me. But unlike you I won't call you silly for that, and I won't start using a know-it-all, the-other-guy-has-no-clue tone.
April 30, 2015 at 01:11AM View BBCode
and really, what's the difference in trade value, anyway? as an A overall 25-26 year old he's probably a four-piece guy, if you're any good at trading.
We're talking about the Orlando Cepeda Majors league, where the level is pretty high and a lot of ace SPs couldn't find a taker for 3 pieces.
There are about 20 A overall SPs and 10 relievers in this league, but no A+ pitcher. If he should make it to A+, he'll be something really special.
But that's not the point. The point is:
the object of the game is to win. [...] leaving him down to chase a few extra conversions at the expense of being competitive is silly, imo.
Yeah, and an inning has 3 outs, unless it is the last inning and it hasn't. Never take points off the board. Offense wins games, defense wins championships. (OK, wrong sport. In real life I'm a football guy.) For gods sake, these kinds of commonplace statements add nothing to a discussion.
I am a moneyball kind of manager. I can express my decisions in player value, expected runs and wins. And here we go again: I'll make the playoffs this season anyway (very likely), so calling him up gives me only a very slightly improved chance to win the world series. If I leave him in the minors for maybe 3 years, the extra improvements may be worth 3-5 extra wins a season when he finally comes up - and while he's down I won't be competing, so I don't lose anything in these years.
My decision makes my team better in the long run. Trade value will take care of itself, since a rebuilding team should always be able to make trades that improve the overall value in the long run.
So you see, I'm not basing my decisions on gut feeling, but follow a long-term plan for my team. You would do things differently - fine with me. But unlike you I won't call you silly for that, and I won't start using a know-it-all, the-other-guy-has-no-clue tone.
dirtdevil
April 30, 2015 at 01:40AM View BBCode
Yeah, the only tone you have is "know-it-all the-other-guy-has-no-clue", so spare me the offended virgin routine.
MDorf
April 30, 2015 at 03:33AM View BBCode
I think it is probably more likely he's a gem in the majors than a bust. The odds of going 2 for 18 as a 22 year old high A- bust in the majors is very small. Most seasons they are going 0-50 at a more favorable age and with worse skills. 0-23 at 23 does cause a little fear, but it isn't as if even gems are converting at a high rate in that situation. Even in variable development with system 3 leagues, A+ pitchers are a rarity, so conversions still slow to a crawl. I'd be calling him up and taking the more favorable odds that he keeps improving while helping me contend.
Bonnie_Brae
Fruno,
The Cepeda league is fun, and there are some very good owners, but it's by no means exceptionally difficult to contend in as a league.
I tried to deal an OS 32 A overall pitcher that had something like 60 less hits than innings pitched last season, and got not even one reasonable offer. I was offered OS25 A+/C- pitchers with a first and some 24 yr old B- OF with low speed. That kind of crap made me laugh. People just don't want to win rings when they can, and you see it again and again and again on this site.
The reason for this is that you can only deal one 1st rounder at a time. In most other leagues I'd net 2 playoff 1sts and a good pitching or hitting prospect. However, in a 24 team league, I was hoping to essentially get an elite young pitcher, another elite prospect, plus a 1st. The 2 established prospects had to have been drafted in the top 10, and now I want them from a contending team that can't expect to replace them in the draft.
I know you aren't specifically referring to me when you mention the 3 pieces trade metric, but I certainly learned something about the OCL.
If a team that may draft 19-24th, was instead drafting 13-16, and they could deal multiple picks, they would be able to say deal me two picks in subsequent seasons, plus a prospect. They could use their remaining 1st rounder to game on replacing the guy.
The OCL is a different beast, and is way more draft centric than most leagues. The good thing is that if you are good at drafting, you have a high probability of guys falling to you because the chances of 23 other owners knowing what they are doing is pretty low. It would be an extreme outlier if I saw a draft where my top 30 went in the first round and a half.
People in the OCL (at any level) don't want to demote, so many tend not to favor long term development involving teen prospects.
May I suggest a different approach with dirt devil? He certainly has assisted me privately and in the forums pretty tirelessly when I seek advice.
Good luck!
[Edited on 4-30-2015 by Bonnie_Brae]
April 30, 2015 at 07:18AM View BBCode
Originally posted by Frunobulax
We're talking about the Orlando Cepeda Majors league, where the level is pretty high and a lot of ace SPs couldn't find a taker for 3 pieces.
Fruno,
The Cepeda league is fun, and there are some very good owners, but it's by no means exceptionally difficult to contend in as a league.
I tried to deal an OS 32 A overall pitcher that had something like 60 less hits than innings pitched last season, and got not even one reasonable offer. I was offered OS25 A+/C- pitchers with a first and some 24 yr old B- OF with low speed. That kind of crap made me laugh. People just don't want to win rings when they can, and you see it again and again and again on this site.
The reason for this is that you can only deal one 1st rounder at a time. In most other leagues I'd net 2 playoff 1sts and a good pitching or hitting prospect. However, in a 24 team league, I was hoping to essentially get an elite young pitcher, another elite prospect, plus a 1st. The 2 established prospects had to have been drafted in the top 10, and now I want them from a contending team that can't expect to replace them in the draft.
I know you aren't specifically referring to me when you mention the 3 pieces trade metric, but I certainly learned something about the OCL.
If a team that may draft 19-24th, was instead drafting 13-16, and they could deal multiple picks, they would be able to say deal me two picks in subsequent seasons, plus a prospect. They could use their remaining 1st rounder to game on replacing the guy.
The OCL is a different beast, and is way more draft centric than most leagues. The good thing is that if you are good at drafting, you have a high probability of guys falling to you because the chances of 23 other owners knowing what they are doing is pretty low. It would be an extreme outlier if I saw a draft where my top 30 went in the first round and a half.
People in the OCL (at any level) don't want to demote, so many tend not to favor long term development involving teen prospects.
May I suggest a different approach with dirt devil? He certainly has assisted me privately and in the forums pretty tirelessly when I seek advice.
Good luck!
[Edited on 4-30-2015 by Bonnie_Brae]
WillyD
Great point. There's little evidence he's a bust in the majors. I've had plenty of B+ or low A- pitchers go 0-for-50 in the majors at ages 23-25. So the 2-for-18 is more telling than the 0-for-23.
April 30, 2015 at 05:01PM View BBCode
Originally posted by MDorf
I think it is probably more likely he's a gem in the majors than a bust. The odds of going 2 for 18 as a 22 year old high A- bust in the majors is very small. Most seasons they are going 0-50 at a more favorable age and with worse skills. 0-23 at 23 does cause a little fear, but it isn't as if even gems are converting at a high rate in that situation. Even in variable development with system 3 leagues, A+ pitchers are a rarity, so conversions still slow to a crawl. I'd be calling him up and taking the more favorable odds that he keeps improving while helping me contend.
Great point. There's little evidence he's a bust in the majors. I've had plenty of B+ or low A- pitchers go 0-for-50 in the majors at ages 23-25. So the 2-for-18 is more telling than the 0-for-23.
Frunobulax
There's little evidence he's a bust in the majors. I've had plenty of B+ or low A- pitchers go 0-for-50 in the majors at ages 23-25. So the 2-for-18 is more telling than the 0-for-23. [/quote]
I think busts come in several disguises. Some of them are really obvious. Some are not. Look at these guys:
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=11170518&statsorimps=imps]http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=11170518&statsorimps=imps[/url]
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=11111438&statsorimps=imps]http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=11111438&statsorimps=imps[/url]
Both had gem curves in the minors, but converted subpar in the majors. But both had major league seasons where they converted a few ICs.
May 01, 2015 at 08:57AM View formatted
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[quote][i]Originally posted by WillyD[/i]
There's little evidence he's a bust in the majors. I've had plenty of B+ or low A- pitchers go 0-for-50 in the majors at ages 23-25. So the 2-for-18 is more telling than the 0-for-23. [/quote]
I think busts come in several disguises. Some of them are really obvious. Some are not. Look at these guys:
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=11170518&statsorimps=imps]http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=11170518&statsorimps=imps[/url]
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=11111438&statsorimps=imps]http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=11111438&statsorimps=imps[/url]
Both had gem curves in the minors, but converted subpar in the majors. But both had major league seasons where they converted a few ICs.
Frunobulax
In the Cepeda league the problem is that the top 4 picks usually submerge with their teams in triple A, and don't come back for a long time. The teams that make it back to the majors often had a few playoff or near-playoff seasons. This is the reason why the talent level on the rosters is significantly below other leagues - just look at the waiver wire, you can't even find B+ guys there at the moment.
That makes it hard to give up 3 solid pieces for a player, no matter how good he is. And I am not a big fan of bombing a team to the playoffs - I prefer to keep some talent on my roster, to ease the rebuild...
May 01, 2015 at 09:08AM View BBCode
Originally posted by Bonnie_Brae
The Cepeda league is fun, and there are some very good owners, but it's by no means exceptionally difficult to contend in as a league.
I tried to deal an OS 32 A overall pitcher that had something like 60 less hits than innings pitched last season, and got not even one reasonable offer. I was offered OS25 A+/C- pitchers with a first and some 24 yr old B- OF with low speed. That kind of crap made me laugh. People just don't want to win rings when they can, and you see it again and again and again on this site.
In the Cepeda league the problem is that the top 4 picks usually submerge with their teams in triple A, and don't come back for a long time. The teams that make it back to the majors often had a few playoff or near-playoff seasons. This is the reason why the talent level on the rosters is significantly below other leagues - just look at the waiver wire, you can't even find B+ guys there at the moment.
That makes it hard to give up 3 solid pieces for a player, no matter how good he is. And I am not a big fan of bombing a team to the playoffs - I prefer to keep some talent on my roster, to ease the rebuild...
dirtdevil
with all due respect, when you call good players up at 27 or 28, what number of conversions are you expecting they get?
http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=11167334&statsorimps=imps
http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=10837672&statsorimps=imps
http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=10907133&statsorimps=imps
http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=11021282&statsorimps=imps
these are just a few random guys from a 'regular' development league. their conversions from 27 or 28 onward aren't very good either. no one's are. so your guys may be busts, but they may very well also be on a normal curve. because players aren't expected to convert all that well in their late 20's to begin with. having people not do well in the majors at 28 isn't in itself evidence of anything.
May 01, 2015 at 12:37PM View BBCode
Originally posted by Frunobulax
Originally posted by WillyD
There's little evidence he's a bust in the majors. I've had plenty of B+ or low A- pitchers go 0-for-50 in the majors at ages 23-25. So the 2-for-18 is more telling than the 0-for-23.
I think busts come in several disguises. Some of them are really obvious. Some are not. Look at these guys:
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=11170518&statsorimps=imps]http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=11170518&statsorimps=imps[/url]
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=11111438&statsorimps=imps]http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=11111438&statsorimps=imps[/url]
Both had gem curves in the minors, but converted subpar in the majors. But both had major league seasons where they converted a few ICs.
with all due respect, when you call good players up at 27 or 28, what number of conversions are you expecting they get?
http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=11167334&statsorimps=imps
http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=10837672&statsorimps=imps
http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=10907133&statsorimps=imps
http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=11021282&statsorimps=imps
these are just a few random guys from a 'regular' development league. their conversions from 27 or 28 onward aren't very good either. no one's are. so your guys may be busts, but they may very well also be on a normal curve. because players aren't expected to convert all that well in their late 20's to begin with. having people not do well in the majors at 28 isn't in itself evidence of anything.
Frunobulax
Regular A- pitchers usually convert 3-5% of their chances between OS27 and OS30. A gem pitcher usually converts about 30% chances more than a normal player, so it's always hard to tell if he's a gem or on a regular curve in the majors that late. But Downs was in the majors at OS24, and it's easy to see that he didn't convert well.
Sure. The guys I cited may be unlucky in the majors or lucky in the minors. However, I've seen enough players converting slightly subpar in the majors who seemed to be sure gems in the minors, so that I'd say not all bust pitchers look like this one [url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=11275740&statsorimps=imps]http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=11275740&statsorimps=imps[/url].
And I have my doubts about
Okrie may be an unlucky gem, converting only 2 chances out of 40 in the majors. But I'd expect a conversion rate of 10% for an OS23 pitcher who is high A- or low A, so he has converted subpar, and I'd say chances are that he's a bust in the majors. Of course I'm not sure, that's why I started the thread. (Having 6 excellent seasons in the minors, we can safely rule out that he's an enigma or eureka.)
May 01, 2015 at 01:40PM View BBCode
Originally posted by dirtdevil
with all due respect, when you call good players up at 27 or 28, what number of conversions are you expecting they get?
Regular A- pitchers usually convert 3-5% of their chances between OS27 and OS30. A gem pitcher usually converts about 30% chances more than a normal player, so it's always hard to tell if he's a gem or on a regular curve in the majors that late. But Downs was in the majors at OS24, and it's easy to see that he didn't convert well.
these are just a few random guys from a 'regular' development league. their conversions from 27 or 28 onward aren't very good either. no one's are. so your guys may be busts, but they may very well also be on a normal curve. because players aren't expected to convert all that well in their late 20's to begin with. having people not do well in the majors at 28 isn't in itself evidence of anything.
Sure. The guys I cited may be unlucky in the majors or lucky in the minors. However, I've seen enough players converting slightly subpar in the majors who seemed to be sure gems in the minors, so that I'd say not all bust pitchers look like this one [url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=11275740&statsorimps=imps]http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=11275740&statsorimps=imps[/url].
And I have my doubts about
So the 2-for-18 is more telling than the 0-for-23.
Okrie may be an unlucky gem, converting only 2 chances out of 40 in the majors. But I'd expect a conversion rate of 10% for an OS23 pitcher who is high A- or low A, so he has converted subpar, and I'd say chances are that he's a bust in the majors. Of course I'm not sure, that's why I started the thread. (Having 6 excellent seasons in the minors, we can safely rule out that he's an enigma or eureka.)
dirtdevil
you mean when he went 1-6? :rolleyes:
May 01, 2015 at 03:02PM View BBCode
Originally posted by Frunobulax
Originally posted by dirtdevil
with all due respect, when you call good players up at 27 or 28, what number of conversions are you expecting they get?
Regular A- pitchers usually convert 3-5% of their chances between OS27 and OS30. A gem pitcher usually converts about 30% chances more than a normal player, so it's always hard to tell if he's a gem or on a regular curve in the majors that late. But Downs was in the majors at OS24, and it's easy to see that he didn't convert well.
you mean when he went 1-6? :rolleyes:
Frunobulax
Yeah, horrible conversion, wasn't it? ;)
OK, OS26.
May 01, 2015 at 03:17PM View BBCode
Originally posted by dirtdevil
you mean when he went 1-6? :rolleyes:
Yeah, horrible conversion, wasn't it? ;)
OK, OS26.
Bonnie_Brae
May 01, 2015 at 05:52PM View BBCode
Man, I think it's nuts not to start this guy and have Keen in the pen. C+endurance is a killer for SPs anyway.
Frunobulax
You think it's nuts to sacrifice short-term gains for long-term development? :)
May 01, 2015 at 06:19PM View BBCode
Originally posted by Bonnie_Brae
Man, I think it's nuts not to start this guy and have Keen in the pen. C+endurance is a killer for SPs anyway.
You think it's nuts to sacrifice short-term gains for long-term development? :)
Bonnie_Brae
That said, you better win the OCL with that team. You have one ring. I'd say that getting home field trumps development for an OS 24 A rated pitcher.
May 01, 2015 at 06:56PM View BBCode
I get it.That said, you better win the OCL with that team. You have one ring. I'd say that getting home field trumps development for an OS 24 A rated pitcher.
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