ballmark
Need Your Input; No Time for Serious Research
March 16, 2015 at 03:20AM View BBCode
Hall of Fame.
Bill James has a formula for batters and the Hall of Fame. He has even rigged one up for SP ... but even James himself admits he has no criteria for how to judge a relief pitcher's record for entry into the Hall of Fame.
So. Given these two facts -
1) We have no "off the field" issues to consider, nor how much a codebit contributes to team and clubhouse chemistry nor any community contributions or volunteer work, and
2) I just don't really have time to look at every RP in the Hall of Fame in all my leagues to establish some kind of baseline,
...what would *you* suggest makes for a solid list of criteria for a RP to enter a league's Hall of Fame?
I know there are many of you who don't think RP even belong in the HOF in the first place. Thank you. Please consider your opinion heard and counted.
For the rest of you, ideas? Minimums? What criteria should be considered?
redcped
March 16, 2015 at 04:04AM View BBCode
300 saves
ERA under 3.50
WHIP under 1.25 perhaps
I would start there and see if it leaves you with a good pool. The bits with tons of saves but lousy stats aren't going to get in. This will at least narrow you to the ones with long sustained careers.
gatkeri
March 16, 2015 at 11:59AM View BBCode
The Tim Raines League has 8 relievers in the HOF-all with 499 or more career saves. One has an ERA over 3.51, but sometimes relievers ERA's can be distorted by a few rough outings a season since they pitch so few innings. Of course, it helps to play on winning teams, since they will get many more save opportunities.
LannisG
March 16, 2015 at 03:02PM View BBCode
Relievers dont belong in the hall unless their great. 500+saves.
DwightKSchrute
March 16, 2015 at 03:54PM View BBCode
Saves is a terrible metric for RP quality. WHIP and IP are the big value drivers.
paulcaraccio
March 16, 2015 at 04:11PM View BBCode
i come out strongly against those RPs that have like 500 saves in 502 innings. i just dont think Saves are meaningful stats, and I don't think Firemans are meaningful awards, so if that's all you got going for you, you ain't gettin my vote. Also it's way too easy for RPs to make All Star teams compared to everyone else. You can take most any average SP and get him 500 saves and 12 All Star teams if you wanted to. So I don't think there's any good quick and easy benchmarks. Personally I like to vote for those RPs that pitch a decent amount of innings with a solid ERA/WHIP, and more so than any other position, fair or not, you have to at least be in the playoffs a lot.
ERAs of RPs can also skew higher because they usually won't see pitchers in the box.
ballmark
March 16, 2015 at 04:34PM View BBCode
Good stuff. Giving me lots to think about. Paul, define "decent amount of innings."
Keep it coming, guys.
[size=1]
Edited to add:[/size]
How about sabermetrics? Save %, Walk Rate, K-Rate, Hit Rate...?
[Edited on 3-16-2015 by ballmark]
paulcaraccio
March 16, 2015 at 05:38PM View BBCode
i don't have a precise definition for it, i just want to see that you pitch in more than just Save situations. i feel you need to have more of an impact than that.
here's a classic example that really got us going one day...
http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=4883699
he only pitched in 62 non-save situations in his entire career, and his career high for IP was 53.2. Crapload of saves, all-star teams, firemans...but his stat-chasing me-first stubbornness surely cost his team many wins over the years. If you use counting-stat benchmarks, you can't deny someone with 682 saves, 12 All Stars, 4 Firemans, but to me this guy is clearly not a HOFer.
I realize it's not actually the player's fault he was underutilized, but we wouldn't even discuss a highly-skilled hitter that was only used as a PH. The artificial value of the "Save" blows things out of proportion. I think if you're on the fence about whether or not to put a guy on the ballot, always put him on and let the votes decide. But when I'm voting, for any position, my basic criteria is: Did this guy scare me? When this team came to town, did this guy keep me up at night? A pitcher, no matter how great, who gets less than 3 outs per 3-game series, is no concern at all.
WillyD
March 16, 2015 at 06:03PM View BBCode
I have to agree with Paul on this one. If they are one of those 50 inning/40-45 save types of reliever, they need to have done that at an exceptionally high level for a long time, and preferably had some success in the playoffs too.
I like the relievers who have pitched over 1,000 innings in their career, putting up some good win and save total,s while putting up solid ERA/WHIP numbers over a high number of innings per year (100+).
chbutt
March 16, 2015 at 06:14PM View BBCode
The Hall of Famers with the most saves are:
Dennis Eckersly 390
Fingers 341
Gossage 310
Sutter 300
Wilhelm 228
Eckersly was the first modern closer and would have had many more saves if he wasn't a starter. The others were used differently than modern closers but were just as effective if not more so. Gossage once pitched 9 innings in relief and his teammate Sparky Lyle came in the 5th inning in a postseason game and pitched the rest of the game.
Rivera and Hoffman both have over 600 saves and will go in easily but Lee Smith who has over 400 saves topped off at 30% in HOF voting.
I would vote for a closer with over 500 saves unless his ERA was poor. But some owners don't use closers the way they are used now in MLB so you have to use your judgement and not just use saves as a criteria.
tworoosters
March 16, 2015 at 06:52PM View BBCode
The sim is a different animal as the traditional closer role is not often the most effective use of your relievers, it might not be in MLB either but hardly anyone seems willing to challenge it there.
I look at saves because they are a measure of a relievers effectiveness but I put more emphasis on WHIP and ERA. Innings pitched are skewed in the SIM, there is no way MLB pitchers could consistently make 80+ appearances with 100+ IPs a year without their arms falling off, but since the SIM treats them all the same I do look at appearances and innings per appearance as this represents a lot of the player's value to his team.
One of the things that James stressed about Hall of Famers was [url=http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Keltner_list]"the Keltner list"[/url], from the 1985 Baseball Abstract, a list of 15 questions regarding a player's HOF likelihood. Some of these questions can't apply to the SIM but #1-3 are ones I always look at, for all HOF candidates.
MDorf
March 16, 2015 at 07:36PM View BBCode
It is rare for me to vote for relievers, though it does happen on occasion. Unfortunately, the largest factor I use to evaluate starting pitchers and hitters is pretty useless for relievers. Allstar appearances and MVP/Cy Youngs are generally useful info for starters and hitters. Allstar appearances for relievers are worthless, and Fireman awards are only semi-useful. For me to vote for one, he has to have dominant numbers-low ERA and WHIP and either a lot of wins or a huge pile of saves. I believe I put this on Ideascale a few years ago, but I believe there should be 7 starters and only 3 relievers making the allstar team. That would at least help in making it easier to identify the best relievers.
[Edited on 3-16-2015 by MDorf]
ballmark
March 16, 2015 at 07:38PM View BBCode
Well, I think it's time to reveal my motive here - besides adding value to the discussion of RP in the Hall of Fame (I am the HOF guy in four leagues) - I have developed a spreadsheet** based on Bill James' criteria, adding some SimD tweaks, but the area it always falls down in is, you guessed it, the relief pitcher (because James never came up with a good RP baseline).
So I am trying to find some way to take James' basic SP principles and adapt them for SimD RP, with your suggestions and help.
**Please don't ask me to send this to you. It's wonky and not user-friendly, and it is a constant work in progress, anyway.
+++
By the way, for those of you unfamiliar with the Keltner List, here it is:
1. Was he ever regarded as the best player in baseball? Did anybody, while he was active, ever suggest that he was the best player in baseball?
2. Was he the best player on his team?
3. Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?
4. Did he have an impact on a number of pennant races?
5. Was he a good enough player that he could continue to play regularly after passing his prime?
6. Is he the very best player in baseball history who is not in the Hall of Fame?
7. Are most players who have comparable career statistics in the Hall of Fame?
8. Do the player's numbers meet Hall of Fame standards?
9. Is there any evidence to suggest that the player was significantly better or worse than is suggested by his statistics?
10. Is he the best player at his position who is eligible for the Hall of Fame but not in?
11. How many MVP-type seasons did he have? Did he ever win an MVP award? If not, how many times was he close?
12. How many All-Star-type seasons did he have? How many All-Star games did he play in? Did most of the other players who played in this many go to the Hall of Fame?
13. If this man were the best player on his team, would it be likely that the team could win the pennant [without him]?
14. What impact did the player have on baseball history? Was he responsible for any rule changes? Did he introduce any new equipment? Did he change the game in any way?
15 . Did the player uphold the standards of sportsmanship and character that the Hall of Fame, in its written guidelines, instructs us to consider?
I see what you're saying, Roosters; I think #5, 7, 12 and possibly 13 would apply, also. But yes, *very* hard to quantify in any sort of digital way.
I am definitely open for more input on this subject.
tworoosters
March 16, 2015 at 09:45PM View BBCode
Originally posted by MDorf
Allstar appearances and MVP/Cy Youngs are generally useful info for starters and hitters.
I put very little emphasis on All Star appearances, for hitters they are almost entirely a health contest as rate stats aren't even considered and for pitchers there is far too much emphasis on wins, innings pitched and complete games for my liking. I also think that playing on winning teams, and the strange positional bonus for MVP, have too much weight in the major awards for them to be overly important in my HOF choices, I view them sort of as bonus points.
I base my HOF voting almost entirely on rate stats and comparative dominance in the manner of question #3 on the Keltner list "Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?" .
MDorf
March 17, 2015 at 01:09AM View BBCode
Originally posted by tworoosters
Originally posted by MDorf
Allstar appearances and MVP/Cy Youngs are generally useful info for starters and hitters.
I put very little emphasis on All Star appearances, for hitters they are almost entirely a health contest as rate stats aren't even considered and for pitchers there is far too much emphasis on wins, innings pitched and complete games for my liking. I also think that playing on winning teams, and the strange positional bonus for MVP, have too much weight in the major awards for them to be overly important in my HOF choices, I view them sort of as bonus points.
I base my HOF voting almost entirely on rate stats and comparative dominance in the manner of question #3 on the Keltner list "Was he the best player in baseball at his position? Was he the best player in the league at his position?" .
Different perspectives. I get your point, and it is certainly valid, but I try to think like voters in MLB. If a guy makes 11 allstar teams and wins a couple MVPs, he's a hall of famer. If he makes 3, he is not worthy. Unless you don't look at counting stats when determining your votes, chances are we are voting for most of the same players. While health is important in making allstar teams, it is also important to reach the numerical baselines that are usually necessary. I don't care if a guy hit .310 with an OPS of .875, he isn't a HOF'er if he scores 1100 runs and drives in 900.
[Edited on 3-17-2015 by MDorf]
tworoosters
March 17, 2015 at 03:46AM View formatted
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I'm not much of a counting stats guy at all, though I will look at them in HOF situations. The problem in the sim is that the A+ health hitters in non system 4 leagues have such a ridiculous advantage that it often renders their "milestones" moot, particularly when you get guys playing out the string with teams that are only giving them ABs to get them up to their magic numbers..
Many moons ago in the BHL we had a controversy about the exclusion from the Hall of Fame of [url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=5350208]Art Frick[/url]. Frick's owner was outraged that a 6 time All Star with over 3,000 hits, almost 1700 runs, over 1,000 RBI and 440 steals didn't merit Hall of Fame entry. The truth is, was, that Frick wasn't really great, he reached his milestones because he was allowed to play out the string for four years when he should never have been a starter, picking up 598 hits with an OPS under .650. Yet the mantra of 3,000 hits was all his owner wanted to hear.
I realize the Hall of Fame is a personal thing, and I have no problem if people want to choose milestones and counting stats, All Stars and MVPs as their criteria, as long as they vote and are consistent I'm fine. It's not the way I do it but that's fine too.
tworoosters
March 17, 2015 at 03:54AM View BBCode
[url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=5154768]Shawn Minor[/url] was another 3,000 hit guy who didn't make the BHL Hall of Fame, again his owner protested loudly but the voters prevailed, because 3,000 hits with a career OPS of .749 is just a bunch of hits you never should have had the chance to collect .
WillyD
March 17, 2015 at 04:39AM View BBCode
Frick & Minor are perfect examples of players with 3,000 hits that don't belong in the Hall of Fame. 5 good seasons doesn't cut it. I'll take the guy with the career .860 OPS, one MVP, and only 2,400 hits.
paulcaraccio
March 17, 2015 at 05:34AM View BBCode
i agree, counting stats usually don't even tell the story of whether or not a hitter belongs in the HOF, so there's no chance they can for a reliever.
one thing that can really skew counting stats in the sim is early promotion. So many careers are the same length here, from about 23-36 with another 100-200 more ABs on either side. Players that come up at 21 or 22 have a huge advantage. Here's a guy who's a pretty sure bet to be elected to the Mantle HOF this year, I haven't voted yet:
http://simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=9321280
3-4 great years, pretty average the rest of the time. Two 200-hit seasons, but over 3100 total. 700 steals, but also owns the league record for CS. As I read his card year-by-year, I think, not a HOFer. But then damn, the guy reached base 4500 times. Being promoted at 21 probably got him 300 extra hits. Over 600 ABs for 18 straight years. I guess you can't say that isn't worth something, a lot even. His teams were successful. He'd have the lowest OPS of any of our HOFers. It's been a long dry stretch for Hallworthy talent in the league, we've elected just 5 players in the last 15 years.
ballmark
March 17, 2015 at 12:46PM View BBCode
So, coming back to Relief Pitchers, let me attempt to sum up. A Hall of Fame Relief Pitcher should:
? Have at least 300 Saves, preferably 500.
? Must have helped their team for more than just the final few outs (i.e., have quite a few more innings pitched than appearances; at least 1,000 IP was suggested).
? Maintained a good ERA and WHIP during their dominant seasons (under 3.25 and 1.25).
? Have a good number (5 or more) of Playoff Appearances.
? FOYs and other awards/accolades are meaningful only in context of the above.
May I also suggest:
? Their Save % should be at least 80%. Otherwise they're not giving much relief.
? They should have solid command of the plate (K=>BB*2; and fewer Hits than IP).
Anything else?
[Edited on 3-18-2015 by ballmark]
dirtdevil
March 17, 2015 at 01:01PM View BBCode
Originally posted by paulcaraccio
he only pitched in 62 non-save situations in his entire career, and his career high for IP was 53.2. Crapload of saves, all-star teams, firemans...but his stat-chasing me-first stubbornness surely cost his team many wins over the years.
I'm sorry, paul but that's ridiculous. argue against the usage of a true closer, if you like. many do. but calling it "me-first stubbornness" is nonsense. it's not like those guys are down in the bullpen refusing to answer the phone before the 8th inning. they pitch when they get told to. disqualifying great pitchers purely because they were closers is as silly as disqualifying great middle relievers because they don't have any saves.
Originally posted by tworoosters
Many moons ago in the BHL we had a controversy about the exclusion from the Hall of Fame of [url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=5350208]Art Frick[/url]. Frick's owner was outraged that a 6 time All Star with over 3,000 hits, almost 1700 runs, over 1,000 RBI and 440 steals didn't merit Hall of Fame entry. The truth is, was, that Frick wasn't really great, he reached his milestones because he was allowed to play out the string for four years when he should never have been a starter, picking up 598 hits with an OPS under .650. Yet the mantra of 3,000 hits was all his owner wanted to hear.
pete rose says hello.
paulcaraccio
March 17, 2015 at 03:36PM View BBCode
i dont think there should be a minimum saves requirement, it should really be on a case by case basis. here's a guy who didn't make the HOF, but came in under 300 and should've at least been considered (i dont remember if he was or not)
http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=8484934
dirty my bad dude, i shouldve put an "LOL J/k" in there for ya
tworoosters
March 17, 2015 at 06:11PM View BBCode
Originally posted by dirtdevil
Originally posted by tworoosters
Many moons ago in the BHL we had a controversy about the exclusion from the Hall of Fame of [url=http://www.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=5350208]Art Frick[/url]. Frick's owner was outraged that a 6 time All Star with over 3,000 hits, almost 1700 runs, over 1,000 RBI and 440 steals didn't merit Hall of Fame entry. The truth is, was, that Frick wasn't really great, he reached his milestones because he was allowed to play out the string for four years when he should never have been a starter, picking up 598 hits with an OPS under .650. Yet the mantra of 3,000 hits was all his owner wanted to hear.
pete rose says hello.
Well Rose at least was a great player in his prime who hung on to pass a previously thought unassailable record. For a period of 15 years, from '65-'79, Rose averaged 105 runs, 38 doubles and 204 hits per year, with an OPS of .829 and OPS+ of 130. He was a shi
tty human being but a great hitter for a very long time.
dirtdevil
March 17, 2015 at 06:15PM View BBCode
he also hung around way too long as a player chasing the record, to the point of writing his own name into the lineup over better players as manager.
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