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Admin
I have also added a Debug line to each pass in the play-by-play to show what the calculated completion rate is for that pass. Obviously that won't stay in the game. They will appear to jump all over the map but in the long run should average to 50-70%.
Part of the problem is that I think I used some of these numbers in a vacuum. For example, you can see the effect on temperature in the NFL by looking at dome games vs. non-dome games. If you look at that by month, it feels like a no-brainer: if average completion rates in December are 60% in a dome and 52% outdoors, and the average temperature in December is 32 degrees, then at 32% there should be an approximate 8% drop in completion rate. But that is a fallacy, because that 8% represents temperature, wind, and rain/snow effects.
One good example is in overall passing completion rate. The difference between the best and worst QB's in the NFL (for QB's that throw enough to qualify for passer rating) is about 18% top to bottom, so the math that calculates based on accuracy results in an 18% spread for most QB's. However, once you add defense, receivers, weather, poor strategies (let's always throw long!), etc., that 18% spread gets exaggerated to 25% or so, throwing off the league adjuster, which throws things off some more... it's a vicious cycle.
I have also removed some of the big bonuses Shotgun was getting to compensate for the automatic defensive shift to a pass defense, since that no longer happens. Shotgun still gets some benefit but now it's on the order of 2 to 5% max depending on situation.
Please take a look at your teams, get them ready to play ball, and please try to play QB's and receivers in-position for now so we can get a correct baseline on these stats.
Thanks!
Chris
Passing issues
July 13, 2014 at 04:08PM View BBCode
I am trying to solve why passing got nearly impossible. I have turned off the "league passing adjustment" that tries to keep the stats normal (it was up to a 56% adjustment for Zeta!) and reworked some of the formulas involved in passing, to remove some of my "wild ass guess" patches for earlier problems and to base some formulas on solid numbers rather than "this feels right".I have also added a Debug line to each pass in the play-by-play to show what the calculated completion rate is for that pass. Obviously that won't stay in the game. They will appear to jump all over the map but in the long run should average to 50-70%.
Part of the problem is that I think I used some of these numbers in a vacuum. For example, you can see the effect on temperature in the NFL by looking at dome games vs. non-dome games. If you look at that by month, it feels like a no-brainer: if average completion rates in December are 60% in a dome and 52% outdoors, and the average temperature in December is 32 degrees, then at 32% there should be an approximate 8% drop in completion rate. But that is a fallacy, because that 8% represents temperature, wind, and rain/snow effects.
One good example is in overall passing completion rate. The difference between the best and worst QB's in the NFL (for QB's that throw enough to qualify for passer rating) is about 18% top to bottom, so the math that calculates based on accuracy results in an 18% spread for most QB's. However, once you add defense, receivers, weather, poor strategies (let's always throw long!), etc., that 18% spread gets exaggerated to 25% or so, throwing off the league adjuster, which throws things off some more... it's a vicious cycle.
I have also removed some of the big bonuses Shotgun was getting to compensate for the automatic defensive shift to a pass defense, since that no longer happens. Shotgun still gets some benefit but now it's on the order of 2 to 5% max depending on situation.
Please take a look at your teams, get them ready to play ball, and please try to play QB's and receivers in-position for now so we can get a correct baseline on these stats.
Thanks!
Chris
Admin
Chris
July 13, 2014 at 04:30PM View BBCode
Those debug messages are probably messed up for Zeta's Week 3 Q4 (breaking up the play display), this is fixed for Zeta Week 4.Chris
RichNYC1
04:52. LAA 2/19 LAA 21 2nd and 19 for the Cobras, they huddle and line up in a Shotgun; the Trojans line up in a 4-2-5 Nickel.
Jimmy Leach takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Leach passes to Fred Scibelli at the 50.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 68%
The ball is caught at the 50 by Fred Scibelli.
Pass by Jimmy Leach is completed to Fred Scibelli for a 28 yard gain.
DEBUG: Crediting Mark Neil with the tackle
First down for the Los Angeles Cobras!
July 14, 2014 at 01:37PM View BBCode
I like seeing the completion %īs. Gives a much better feel for whats going on. But I dont understand how this 29 yard pass, in a passing situation, has a 68% chance of being completed. He a good QB, but stil 68%?04:52. LAA 2/19 LAA 21 2nd and 19 for the Cobras, they huddle and line up in a Shotgun; the Trojans line up in a 4-2-5 Nickel.
Jimmy Leach takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Leach passes to Fred Scibelli at the 50.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 68%
The ball is caught at the 50 by Fred Scibelli.
Pass by Jimmy Leach is completed to Fred Scibelli for a 28 yard gain.
DEBUG: Crediting Mark Neil with the tackle
First down for the Los Angeles Cobras!
casperthegm
July 14, 2014 at 02:12PM View BBCode
Looking at that play, I'm curious about the expected 68% as well, especially since you have the right defense called. Doesn't look right.
tworoosters
15:00. 14 0 TEN 3/12 TEN 20
3rd and 12 for the Tuxedos, they huddle and line up in a Shotgun; the Lawmen line up in a 4-2-5 Nickel.
Mike Hood takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Hood passes to Stan Mitchell at the TEN 37.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 39%
The ball is caught at the TEN 37 by Stan Mitchell.
Mitchell dodges a tackle by Sam Itzel.
Pass by Mike Hood is completed to Stan Mitchell for a 23 yard gain.
12:55 14 0 TEN 3/6 ATL 43
3rd and 6 for the Tuxedos, they huddle and line up in a Shotgun; the Lawmen line up in a 4-2-5 Nickel.
Mike Hood takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Hood passes to Tyrone White at the ATL 15.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 71%
The ball is caught at the ATL 15 by Tyrone White.
Pass by Mike Hood is completed to Tyrone White for a 30 yard gain.
Same drive, same offensive set, same defensive set both on 3rd down: 1st pass is 17 yards and the completion chance is 39%, second pass is 28 yards and completion chance is 71% .
First pass is attempted to a WR with 84 catch, 48 execution and 56 hands, second to WR with 93 catch, 52 execution and 65 hands. To me the variance between the WR skills shouldn't increase the chance of a pass that is 60% longer by almost 80% . If WR skill makes that much difference I'm confused as to why [url=http://footballbeta.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=534335]Burk[/url] is only catching 65% of his receptions .
[Edited on 7-14-2014 by tworoosters]
July 14, 2014 at 02:44PM View BBCode
This is confusing to me, same drive:15:00. 14 0 TEN 3/12 TEN 20
3rd and 12 for the Tuxedos, they huddle and line up in a Shotgun; the Lawmen line up in a 4-2-5 Nickel.
Mike Hood takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Hood passes to Stan Mitchell at the TEN 37.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 39%
The ball is caught at the TEN 37 by Stan Mitchell.
Mitchell dodges a tackle by Sam Itzel.
Pass by Mike Hood is completed to Stan Mitchell for a 23 yard gain.
12:55 14 0 TEN 3/6 ATL 43
3rd and 6 for the Tuxedos, they huddle and line up in a Shotgun; the Lawmen line up in a 4-2-5 Nickel.
Mike Hood takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Hood passes to Tyrone White at the ATL 15.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 71%
The ball is caught at the ATL 15 by Tyrone White.
Pass by Mike Hood is completed to Tyrone White for a 30 yard gain.
Same drive, same offensive set, same defensive set both on 3rd down: 1st pass is 17 yards and the completion chance is 39%, second pass is 28 yards and completion chance is 71% .
First pass is attempted to a WR with 84 catch, 48 execution and 56 hands, second to WR with 93 catch, 52 execution and 65 hands. To me the variance between the WR skills shouldn't increase the chance of a pass that is 60% longer by almost 80% . If WR skill makes that much difference I'm confused as to why [url=http://footballbeta.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=534335]Burk[/url] is only catching 65% of his receptions .
[Edited on 7-14-2014 by tworoosters]
Admin
The first one was Long Shotgun Pass vs. Deep Prevent; the second one was Long Shotgun Pass vs. Shallow Zone.
Chris
July 14, 2014 at 03:58PM View BBCode
Originally posted by tworoosters
This is confusing to me, same drive:
The first one was Long Shotgun Pass vs. Deep Prevent; the second one was Long Shotgun Pass vs. Shallow Zone.
Chris
Admin
This was Long Shotgun vs. Man-to-Man. He was throwing with the wind but it was a slight wind so it shouldn't have been that much of a boost. I'll have to dissect this one. One problem I have been having is that really high power QB's throw long passes almost effortlessly.
Chris
July 14, 2014 at 04:08PM View BBCode
Originally posted by RichNYC1
I like seeing the completion %īs. Gives a much better feel for whats going on. But I dont understand how this 29 yard pass, in a passing situation, has a 68% chance of being completed. He a good QB, but stil 68%?
04:52. LAA 2/19 LAA 21 2nd and 19 for the Cobras, they huddle and line up in a Shotgun; the Trojans line up in a 4-2-5 Nickel.
Jimmy Leach takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Leach passes to Fred Scibelli at the 50.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 68%
The ball is caught at the 50 by Fred Scibelli.
Pass by Jimmy Leach is completed to Fred Scibelli for a 28 yard gain.
DEBUG: Crediting Mark Neil with the tackle
First down for the Los Angeles Cobras!
This was Long Shotgun vs. Man-to-Man. He was throwing with the wind but it was a slight wind so it shouldn't have been that much of a boost. I'll have to dissect this one. One problem I have been having is that really high power QB's throw long passes almost effortlessly.
Chris
RichNYC1
Hallelujah! Thats what I have been trying to say for months. But its not just that. Look at the COMP % probability on the 3-10 yard passes. 75%-81% a great deal of the time. What I dont understand is how when a team does the same thing over and over the defense doesnt adjust, semi-automatically, to cover it and reduce the %īs. You have teams, myself included right now, throwing 80% or more of the time short-medium and the defense never figures it out. If we could allow for smarter adjustments to recognizing tendencies it would go a long way to making the game play correctly I think. The great players should still be great, but regular players are great too the way it works now and scheme doesnt seem to count for much.
Additionally, at least to me, having the 2 additional defensive play calls for each down and distance has actually make it less probable that the defense will make the right call in the right spot. This is particularly true because there seems to be no advantage in calling anything other than SAM/WLL blitz. (Which are effective in stopping running plays from Shotgun). If you dont need more than 1 blitz its mathematically wrong to call anything other than a run defense, a medium pass defense, a deep pass defense and a blitz. By adding additional play calls you are actually lowering the chances of having the right play called. At least thats how it seems to me.
July 14, 2014 at 04:58PM View BBCode
Originally posted by Admin
Originally posted by RichNYC1
I like seeing the completion %īs. Gives a much better feel for whats going on. But I dont understand how this 29 yard pass, in a passing situation, has a 68% chance of being completed. He a good QB, but stil 68%?
04:52. LAA 2/19 LAA 21 2nd and 19 for the Cobras, they huddle and line up in a Shotgun; the Trojans line up in a 4-2-5 Nickel.
Jimmy Leach takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Leach passes to Fred Scibelli at the 50.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 68%
The ball is caught at the 50 by Fred Scibelli.
Pass by Jimmy Leach is completed to Fred Scibelli for a 28 yard gain.
DEBUG: Crediting Mark Neil with the tackle
First down for the Los Angeles Cobras!
This was Long Shotgun vs. Man-to-Man. He was throwing with the wind but it was a slight wind so it shouldn't have been that much of a boost. I'll have to dissect this one. One problem I have been having is that really high power QB's throw long passes almost effortlessly.
Chris
Hallelujah! Thats what I have been trying to say for months. But its not just that. Look at the COMP % probability on the 3-10 yard passes. 75%-81% a great deal of the time. What I dont understand is how when a team does the same thing over and over the defense doesnt adjust, semi-automatically, to cover it and reduce the %īs. You have teams, myself included right now, throwing 80% or more of the time short-medium and the defense never figures it out. If we could allow for smarter adjustments to recognizing tendencies it would go a long way to making the game play correctly I think. The great players should still be great, but regular players are great too the way it works now and scheme doesnt seem to count for much.
Additionally, at least to me, having the 2 additional defensive play calls for each down and distance has actually make it less probable that the defense will make the right call in the right spot. This is particularly true because there seems to be no advantage in calling anything other than SAM/WLL blitz. (Which are effective in stopping running plays from Shotgun). If you dont need more than 1 blitz its mathematically wrong to call anything other than a run defense, a medium pass defense, a deep pass defense and a blitz. By adding additional play calls you are actually lowering the chances of having the right play called. At least thats how it seems to me.
RichNYC1
July 14, 2014 at 05:02PM View formatted
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I would also say that great players dont generally do the same thing all the time, and when they do they tend not to be so great. The most important part of a pro offense is its ability to hide what its trying to do. In SD it seems to be beneficial to do the same thing over and over so that you hit it when the defense is on the wrong position. It should be the opposite.
shbo2
08:39 7 0 CLE 3/7 CLE 26
3rd and 7 for the Purple Thunder, they huddle and line up in a Shotgun; the Blazers line up in a 4-2-5 Nickel.
Barry Pritchett takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Pritchett passes to Virgil Richter at the BUF 37.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 1%
The pass is wide.
Pass by Barry Pritchett intended for Virgil Richter is incomplete.
July 14, 2014 at 06:26PM View BBCode
Does anybody else think a 1% chance of completion is way too low for almost any situation? I've looked at other wide or short throws and the come nowhere near that low.08:39 7 0 CLE 3/7 CLE 26
3rd and 7 for the Purple Thunder, they huddle and line up in a Shotgun; the Blazers line up in a 4-2-5 Nickel.
Barry Pritchett takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Pritchett passes to Virgil Richter at the BUF 37.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 1%
The pass is wide.
Pass by Barry Pritchett intended for Virgil Richter is incomplete.
tworoosters
July 14, 2014 at 06:42PM View BBCode
I don't know if 1% is too low for any situation, I'm thinking Hail Marys of 40 yards + would fall into the 1% category, but this is a 37 yard attempt by a QB with red letter power/accuracy and execution so I would think 1% is awfully low for this pass, though there is a substantial wind so that might have an effect.
RichNYC1
[url=http://footballbeta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp?boxscoreid=59610&thid=5746&qtr=3]Game Link[/url]
01:14. NYA 1/10 NYA 14 1st and 10 for the Trojans, they huddle and line up in a Shotgun; the Corsairs line up in a 4-2-5 Nickel.
Lou Montana takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Montana passes to Dave Thompson at the NYA 30.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 73%
The ball is caught at the NYA 30 by Dave Thompson.
Pass by Lou Montana is completed to Dave Thompson for an 18 yard gain.
DEBUG: Crediting Moses Getty with the tackle
First down for the New York Trojans!
The New York Trojans call a time out. They have 2 remaining.
01:07. NYA 1/10 NYA 32 1st and 10 for the Trojans, they huddle and line up in a Shotgun; the Corsairs line up in a 4-2-5 Nickel.
Lou Montana takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Montana passes to Howie Coleman at the MIA 43.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 67%
The ball is caught at the MIA 43 by Howie Coleman.
Coleman dodges a tackle by William Kramer.
Pass by Lou Montana is completed to Howie Coleman for a 37 yard gain.
DEBUG: Crediting Nate Sarboe with the tackle
First down for the New York Trojans!
The New York Trojans call a time out. They have 1 remaining.
01:00. NYA 1/10 MIA 32 1st and 10 for the Trojans, they huddle and line up in a Pro Set; the Corsairs line up in a 4-3.
Don Litkus takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Litkus passes to Howie Coleman at the MIA 11.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 65%
The ball is caught at the MIA 11 by Howie Coleman.
Coleman is ruled out of bounds at the point of the catch.
Pass by Don Litkus intended for Howie Coleman is incomplete.
00:54. NYA 2/10 MIA 32 2nd and 10 for the Trojans, they huddle and line up in a Shotgun; the Corsairs line up in a 4-2-5 Nickel.
Lou Montana takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Montana passes to Dave Thompson at the MIA 9.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 68%
The ball is caught at the MIA 9 by Dave Thompson.
Pass by Lou Montana is completed to Dave Thompson for a 24 yard gain.
DEBUG: Crediting Moses Getty with the tackle
First down for the New York Trojans!
The New York Trojans call a time out. They have 0 remaining.
00:47. NYA 1/G MIA 8 1st and goal for the Trojans, they huddle and line up in a Pro Set; the Corsairs line up in a 4-3.
Don Litkus takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Litkus passes to Niko Pentecost in the end zone.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 78%
The ball is caught in the end zone by Niko Pentecost.
Pass by Don Litkus is completed to Niko Pentecost for an 8 yard gain.
Touchdown for the New York Trojans!
Jon Suggs prepares to kick the extra point for New York, Lou Montana holding.
Montana's hold is good.
Extra point kick by Jon Suggs is good.
00:41. MIA --- NYA 30 New York lines up for the kickoff.
Mario Phillips kicks off for the Trojans.
Kick hang time: 3.60 seconds.
The ball is caught in the end zone by Jeff McCauley and downed for a touchback.
00:41. MIA 1/10 MIA 20 1st and 10 for the Corsairs, they huddle and line up in a Shotgun; the Trojans line up in a 4-2-5 Nickel.
Chet Thomas takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Thomas passes to Willard Dabney at the MIA 26.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 78%
The ball is caught at the MIA 26 by Willard Dabney.
Dabney dodges a tackle by Mario Goss.
Pass by Chet Thomas is completed to Willard Dabney for a 14 yard gain.
DEBUG: Crediting Michael Hare with the tackle
First down for the Miami Corsairs!
The Miami Corsairs call a time out. They have 2 remaining.
00:35. MIA 1/10 MIA 34 1st and 10 for the Corsairs, they huddle and line up in a Shotgun; the Trojans line up in a 4-2-5 Nickel.
Chet Thomas takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Thomas passes to Connie Rice at the NYA 33.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 69%
The ball is caught at the NYA 33 by Connie Rice.
Pass by Chet Thomas is completed to Connie Rice for a 35 yard gain.
DEBUG: Crediting Mike Brennan with the tackle
First down for the Miami Corsairs!
The Miami Corsairs call a time out. They have 1 remaining.
00:28. MIA 1/10 NYA 31 1st and 10 for the Corsairs, they huddle and line up in a Shotgun; the Trojans line up in a 4-2-5 Nickel.
Chet Thomas takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Thomas is under pressure.
Thomas passes to Connie Rice at the NYA 19.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 71%
The ball is caught at the NYA 19 by Connie Rice.
Pass by Chet Thomas is completed to Connie Rice for a 14 yard gain.
DEBUG: Crediting Michael Hare with the tackle
First down for the Miami Corsairs!
The Miami Corsairs call a time out. They have 0 remaining.
00:20. MIA 1/10 NYA 17 1st and 10 for the Corsairs, they huddle and line up in a Shotgun; the Trojans line up in a 4-2-5 Nickel.
Chet Thomas takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Thomas passes to Willard Dabney at the NYA 11.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 78%
The ball is caught at the NYA 11 by Willard Dabney.
Pass by Chet Thomas is completed to Willard Dabney for a 6 yard gain.
DEBUG: Crediting Mike Brennan with the tackle
00:13 MIA 2/4 NYA 11 2nd and 4 for the Corsairs, they hurry to the line and line up in a Pro Set; the Trojans line up in a 4-3.
Chet Thomas takes the snap and spikes the ball to stop the clock.
00:08. MIA 3/4 NYA 11 3rd and 4 for the Corsairs, they huddle and line up in a Shotgun; the Trojans line up in a 4-2-5 Nickel.
Chet Thomas takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Thomas is under pressure.
Thomas passes to Connie Rice at the NYA 2.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 76%
The ball is caught at the NYA 2 by Connie Rice.
Pass by Chet Thomas is completed to Connie Rice for an 8 yard gain.
DEBUG: Crediting Michael Hare with the tackle
First down for the Miami Corsairs!
00:00 MIA --- NYA 3 End of game.
New York Trojans 24, Miami Corsairs 20
July 14, 2014 at 06:52PM View BBCode
How about this game? Both teams get a chance in the last 2 min. Check out the Calculated completion chances[url=http://footballbeta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp?boxscoreid=59610&thid=5746&qtr=3]Game Link[/url]
01:14. NYA 1/10 NYA 14 1st and 10 for the Trojans, they huddle and line up in a Shotgun; the Corsairs line up in a 4-2-5 Nickel.
Lou Montana takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Montana passes to Dave Thompson at the NYA 30.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 73%
The ball is caught at the NYA 30 by Dave Thompson.
Pass by Lou Montana is completed to Dave Thompson for an 18 yard gain.
DEBUG: Crediting Moses Getty with the tackle
First down for the New York Trojans!
The New York Trojans call a time out. They have 2 remaining.
01:07. NYA 1/10 NYA 32 1st and 10 for the Trojans, they huddle and line up in a Shotgun; the Corsairs line up in a 4-2-5 Nickel.
Lou Montana takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Montana passes to Howie Coleman at the MIA 43.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 67%
The ball is caught at the MIA 43 by Howie Coleman.
Coleman dodges a tackle by William Kramer.
Pass by Lou Montana is completed to Howie Coleman for a 37 yard gain.
DEBUG: Crediting Nate Sarboe with the tackle
First down for the New York Trojans!
The New York Trojans call a time out. They have 1 remaining.
01:00. NYA 1/10 MIA 32 1st and 10 for the Trojans, they huddle and line up in a Pro Set; the Corsairs line up in a 4-3.
Don Litkus takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Litkus passes to Howie Coleman at the MIA 11.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 65%
The ball is caught at the MIA 11 by Howie Coleman.
Coleman is ruled out of bounds at the point of the catch.
Pass by Don Litkus intended for Howie Coleman is incomplete.
00:54. NYA 2/10 MIA 32 2nd and 10 for the Trojans, they huddle and line up in a Shotgun; the Corsairs line up in a 4-2-5 Nickel.
Lou Montana takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Montana passes to Dave Thompson at the MIA 9.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 68%
The ball is caught at the MIA 9 by Dave Thompson.
Pass by Lou Montana is completed to Dave Thompson for a 24 yard gain.
DEBUG: Crediting Moses Getty with the tackle
First down for the New York Trojans!
The New York Trojans call a time out. They have 0 remaining.
00:47. NYA 1/G MIA 8 1st and goal for the Trojans, they huddle and line up in a Pro Set; the Corsairs line up in a 4-3.
Don Litkus takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Litkus passes to Niko Pentecost in the end zone.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 78%
The ball is caught in the end zone by Niko Pentecost.
Pass by Don Litkus is completed to Niko Pentecost for an 8 yard gain.
Touchdown for the New York Trojans!
Jon Suggs prepares to kick the extra point for New York, Lou Montana holding.
Montana's hold is good.
Extra point kick by Jon Suggs is good.
00:41. MIA --- NYA 30 New York lines up for the kickoff.
Mario Phillips kicks off for the Trojans.
Kick hang time: 3.60 seconds.
The ball is caught in the end zone by Jeff McCauley and downed for a touchback.
00:41. MIA 1/10 MIA 20 1st and 10 for the Corsairs, they huddle and line up in a Shotgun; the Trojans line up in a 4-2-5 Nickel.
Chet Thomas takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Thomas passes to Willard Dabney at the MIA 26.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 78%
The ball is caught at the MIA 26 by Willard Dabney.
Dabney dodges a tackle by Mario Goss.
Pass by Chet Thomas is completed to Willard Dabney for a 14 yard gain.
DEBUG: Crediting Michael Hare with the tackle
First down for the Miami Corsairs!
The Miami Corsairs call a time out. They have 2 remaining.
00:35. MIA 1/10 MIA 34 1st and 10 for the Corsairs, they huddle and line up in a Shotgun; the Trojans line up in a 4-2-5 Nickel.
Chet Thomas takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Thomas passes to Connie Rice at the NYA 33.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 69%
The ball is caught at the NYA 33 by Connie Rice.
Pass by Chet Thomas is completed to Connie Rice for a 35 yard gain.
DEBUG: Crediting Mike Brennan with the tackle
First down for the Miami Corsairs!
The Miami Corsairs call a time out. They have 1 remaining.
00:28. MIA 1/10 NYA 31 1st and 10 for the Corsairs, they huddle and line up in a Shotgun; the Trojans line up in a 4-2-5 Nickel.
Chet Thomas takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Thomas is under pressure.
Thomas passes to Connie Rice at the NYA 19.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 71%
The ball is caught at the NYA 19 by Connie Rice.
Pass by Chet Thomas is completed to Connie Rice for a 14 yard gain.
DEBUG: Crediting Michael Hare with the tackle
First down for the Miami Corsairs!
The Miami Corsairs call a time out. They have 0 remaining.
00:20. MIA 1/10 NYA 17 1st and 10 for the Corsairs, they huddle and line up in a Shotgun; the Trojans line up in a 4-2-5 Nickel.
Chet Thomas takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Thomas passes to Willard Dabney at the NYA 11.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 78%
The ball is caught at the NYA 11 by Willard Dabney.
Pass by Chet Thomas is completed to Willard Dabney for a 6 yard gain.
DEBUG: Crediting Mike Brennan with the tackle
00:13 MIA 2/4 NYA 11 2nd and 4 for the Corsairs, they hurry to the line and line up in a Pro Set; the Trojans line up in a 4-3.
Chet Thomas takes the snap and spikes the ball to stop the clock.
00:08. MIA 3/4 NYA 11 3rd and 4 for the Corsairs, they huddle and line up in a Shotgun; the Trojans line up in a 4-2-5 Nickel.
Chet Thomas takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Thomas is under pressure.
Thomas passes to Connie Rice at the NYA 2.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 76%
The ball is caught at the NYA 2 by Connie Rice.
Pass by Chet Thomas is completed to Connie Rice for an 8 yard gain.
DEBUG: Crediting Michael Hare with the tackle
First down for the Miami Corsairs!
00:00 MIA --- NYA 3 End of game.
New York Trojans 24, Miami Corsairs 20
RichNYC1
July 14, 2014 at 07:20PM View BBCode
The only thing that game had in common with football is that the clock ran out.
Fulla
How is this Man-2-Man if it says he is lined up in 4-2-5 nickle?
July 14, 2014 at 07:59PM View BBCode
Originally posted by Admin
Originally posted by RichNYC1
I like seeing the completion %īs. Gives a much better feel for whats going on. But I dont understand how this 29 yard pass, in a passing situation, has a 68% chance of being completed. He a good QB, but stil 68%?
04:52. LAA 2/19 LAA 21 2nd and 19 for the Cobras, they huddle and line up in a Shotgun; the Trojans line up in a 4-2-5 Nickel.
Jimmy Leach takes the snap and drops back into the pocket.
Leach passes to Fred Scibelli at the 50.
DEBUG: Calculated completion chance: 68%
The ball is caught at the 50 by Fred Scibelli.
Pass by Jimmy Leach is completed to Fred Scibelli for a 28 yard gain.
DEBUG: Crediting Mark Neil with the tackle
First down for the Los Angeles Cobras!
This was Long Shotgun vs. Man-to-Man. He was throwing with the wind but it was a slight wind so it shouldn't have been that much of a boost. I'll have to dissect this one. One problem I have been having is that really high power QB's throw long passes almost effortlessly.
Chris
How is this Man-2-Man if it says he is lined up in 4-2-5 nickle?
Admin
When the offense comes out in Shotgun, the defense changes to a Nickel. The underlying defensive play doesn't change anymore but the formation still changes to cover the additional receiver.
Chris
[Edited on 7-15-2014 by Admin]
July 15, 2014 at 04:11PM View BBCode
Originally posted by Fulla
Originally posted by Admin
Originally posted by RichNYC1
04:52. LAA 2/19 LAA 21 2nd and 19 for the Cobras, they huddle and line up in a Shotgun; the Trojans line up in a 4-2-5 Nickel.
This was Long Shotgun vs. Man-to-Man. He was throwing with the wind but it was a slight wind so it shouldn't have been that much of a boost. I'll have to dissect this one. One problem I have been having is that really high power QB's throw long passes almost effortlessly.
Chris
How is this Man-2-Man if it says he is lined up in 4-2-5 nickle?
When the offense comes out in Shotgun, the defense changes to a Nickel. The underlying defensive play doesn't change anymore but the formation still changes to cover the additional receiver.
Chris
[Edited on 7-15-2014 by Admin]
Admin
The average pass completion rate in the NFL is about 60%. Well-covered passes and long passes shouldn't have anywhere near that completion rate so to compensate, plays with a less ideal defense and/or shorter passes have a higher completion rate. If you have, say, four passes with an 80% completion rate and four passes with a 40% completion rate, you are averaging 60%. So individually almost any pass's completion rate will look wrong if you compare it to the average in isolation.
Here is how completion rate is calculated:
- It starts with a base rate of the QB throwing to a stationary target about 10 yards away. This base rate is going to be about 90-95% for any half decent starting QB.
- Next, the pattern is added (not the distance), so now the QB is throwing to a moving target. This takes into account his accuracy (60%), power(standing in for Release, 25%) and Execution (15%). This calculation also assumes a defense on the field but the receiver not closely covered and no pressure being brought to bear. This results in a change of about +7.5% to -7.5% for most starting QB's.
Next, the sim looks to see if the defense is "keyed" due to the offense running the same play too much. If so it increases the interception rate. (The completion rate will be indirectly affected by the defense switching to a perfect defense against the overused play in the strategy selection phase.)
Next, pressure is calculated. The maximum pressure effect is -22% for regular pressure and -44% for heavy pressure. Agile QB's will negate some of this effect, though.
Next it goes through the strategy matrix, which has the biggest effect. Completion and interception rates go up or down based on the strategy matchup.
Next, the defender and receiver's skills are calculated in, and the possibility of going out of bounds, which is much higher for sideline throws.
Weather is now added in:
- Wind is calculated as a penalty or bonus against the passer's Power rating. Longer passes are more affected by wind than short ones.
- Temperature (after wind chill is added) is a straight reduction in passing rate. Temps between about 55 and 75 have no effect, higher or lower temperatures reduce completion rate (high temperatures up to 4% or so, lower temperatures reduce completion rate about 8% for freezing temps down to about 15-20% for subzero cold).
Next, distance is calculated in. This is a straight subtraction for long throws based on the power (modified by wind) of the passer. Really short throws get a bonus from this math (now that I am laying this all out, this may be "double dipping" giving too much bonus to short throws).
The league adjustment is folded in. This is an analysis of the last 3 games by all QB's in the league; if the numbers seem off and the pass is less than 20 yards or so, the league adjustment is added in.
Next a bonus is calculated for really good receivers to compensate for really bad QB's and boost the numbers a bit.
Next, penalties are calculated if the QB is getting overused (to keep the passing numbers from getting ridiculous), with the definition of "overused" being different for real QB's vs. players playing out of position.
At this point, if the completion rate is below 2% or above 85%, it is clipped to those extremes.
Finally, receiver drop rates are calculated. These are naturally higher in wet weather (in fact the "drop rate" and "wet additional drop rate" are calculated separately and both subtracted from the completion rate).
The last penalty is if the QB was getting blitz, looked for a hot read and couldn't find one, he gets a 10% hit on completion rate for the time he spent looking for someone to dump off to rather than reading his planned receivers.
In my log, it looks like this: (NOTE: Numbers related to rates are in thousandths, so a "Final completion rate" of 493 is 49.3%.)
============================
+1:00.069: .139 Q4/03:10(190), NYA17-LAA14, LAA 2/14.4: Offensive plan is PassMed from strategy O-2l, Defensive plan is CoverMan from strategy keyed
+1:00.069: .139 Q4/03:10(190), NYA17-LAA14, LAA 2/14.4: Defense is keyed in
Clay Ellis (DE) is at 79% energy, needs rest at 75%. (STA: 54)
Tommy Pyne (DE) is at 75% energy, needs rest at 75%. (STA: 78)
Edgar Smith (S) is at 78% energy, needs rest at 75%. (STA: 47)
+1:00.072: .139 Q4/02:51(171), NYA17-LAA14, LAA 2/14.4: Timelog (clock was running, time strategy Hurry Up): 19 seconds off clock for: Huddle, clock is running
O-line (P,L,M,R,X), 772, 282, 444, 810, 0
D-line (P,L,M,R), 430, 0, 0, 85
+1:00.072: .139 Q4/02:51(171), NYA17-LAA14, LAA 2/14.4: Total sack rate: 6
+1:00.072: .139 Q4/02:51(171), NYA17-LAA14, LAA 2/14.4: Resolving play:
+1:00.072: .139 Q4/02:46(166), NYA17-LAA14, LAA 2/14.4: Timelog (clock was running, time strategy Hurry Up): 5 seconds off clock for: Play time (rush or snap to pass), clock is running
Pass calculation: tAcc:76.5, tPow: 89, Exe: 0
Base completion rate: 916
After passer accuracy/power/exe (68.15) adjust (-61: 855
Pressure adjust: 0, QB execution counters 0, total adjust 0
After pressure adjust: 855
After strategy, tip adjust and OOB adjusts:444
Tipped rate: 68
Defended rate: 104
QB err rate: 9
Dist adjustment -34, wind vector: 1.4
Temperature adjustment to passing power: 0
+1:00.072: .139 Q4/02:46(166), NYA17-LAA14, LAA 2/14.4: No passer power adjust (890 - 0 temperature adjustment vs 8.3 yards)
After distance adjustment: (8 yards): 478
After league completion adjustment (40): 518
Comp rate is below 530 (518), adding receiver bonus of 12
Interception rate: 80
Short rate: 0, wide rate: 34
Short int rate: 0, wide int rate: 8
Drop rate: 37, wet drop rate: 0
After drop rate:493
Great catch rate:1
Great catch to avoid Int rate:0
Final completion rate for Leach: 493
=====================================
Now this play is a perfect example of a problem in the system. The final completion rate is 49.3% which is way too high considering the defense is keyed in and thus using a perfect defense. Which is why I have been combing through these calculation for the last few weeks but as you can see there are so many different modules being simulated here that all have to average out to 60% over time but vary wildly from play to play.
Well, remember that blitzing more than 3 or 4 times in a quarter starts to make the blitz less and less effective in generating pressure as the OL adjusts. But yes, having more play calls increases randomness which is why I resisted for so long. But no one is required to use the extra options.
Chris
July 15, 2014 at 04:54PM View BBCode
Originally posted by RichNYC1
Look at the COMP % probability on the 3-10 yard passes. 75%-81% a great deal of the time.
The average pass completion rate in the NFL is about 60%. Well-covered passes and long passes shouldn't have anywhere near that completion rate so to compensate, plays with a less ideal defense and/or shorter passes have a higher completion rate. If you have, say, four passes with an 80% completion rate and four passes with a 40% completion rate, you are averaging 60%. So individually almost any pass's completion rate will look wrong if you compare it to the average in isolation.
Here is how completion rate is calculated:
- It starts with a base rate of the QB throwing to a stationary target about 10 yards away. This base rate is going to be about 90-95% for any half decent starting QB.
- Next, the pattern is added (not the distance), so now the QB is throwing to a moving target. This takes into account his accuracy (60%), power(standing in for Release, 25%) and Execution (15%). This calculation also assumes a defense on the field but the receiver not closely covered and no pressure being brought to bear. This results in a change of about +7.5% to -7.5% for most starting QB's.
Next, the sim looks to see if the defense is "keyed" due to the offense running the same play too much. If so it increases the interception rate. (The completion rate will be indirectly affected by the defense switching to a perfect defense against the overused play in the strategy selection phase.)
Next, pressure is calculated. The maximum pressure effect is -22% for regular pressure and -44% for heavy pressure. Agile QB's will negate some of this effect, though.
Next it goes through the strategy matrix, which has the biggest effect. Completion and interception rates go up or down based on the strategy matchup.
Next, the defender and receiver's skills are calculated in, and the possibility of going out of bounds, which is much higher for sideline throws.
Weather is now added in:
- Wind is calculated as a penalty or bonus against the passer's Power rating. Longer passes are more affected by wind than short ones.
- Temperature (after wind chill is added) is a straight reduction in passing rate. Temps between about 55 and 75 have no effect, higher or lower temperatures reduce completion rate (high temperatures up to 4% or so, lower temperatures reduce completion rate about 8% for freezing temps down to about 15-20% for subzero cold).
Next, distance is calculated in. This is a straight subtraction for long throws based on the power (modified by wind) of the passer. Really short throws get a bonus from this math (now that I am laying this all out, this may be "double dipping" giving too much bonus to short throws).
The league adjustment is folded in. This is an analysis of the last 3 games by all QB's in the league; if the numbers seem off and the pass is less than 20 yards or so, the league adjustment is added in.
Next a bonus is calculated for really good receivers to compensate for really bad QB's and boost the numbers a bit.
Next, penalties are calculated if the QB is getting overused (to keep the passing numbers from getting ridiculous), with the definition of "overused" being different for real QB's vs. players playing out of position.
At this point, if the completion rate is below 2% or above 85%, it is clipped to those extremes.
Finally, receiver drop rates are calculated. These are naturally higher in wet weather (in fact the "drop rate" and "wet additional drop rate" are calculated separately and both subtracted from the completion rate).
The last penalty is if the QB was getting blitz, looked for a hot read and couldn't find one, he gets a 10% hit on completion rate for the time he spent looking for someone to dump off to rather than reading his planned receivers.
In my log, it looks like this: (NOTE: Numbers related to rates are in thousandths, so a "Final completion rate" of 493 is 49.3%.)
============================
+1:00.069: .139 Q4/03:10(190), NYA17-LAA14, LAA 2/14.4: Offensive plan is PassMed from strategy O-2l, Defensive plan is CoverMan from strategy keyed
+1:00.069: .139 Q4/03:10(190), NYA17-LAA14, LAA 2/14.4: Defense is keyed in
Clay Ellis (DE) is at 79% energy, needs rest at 75%. (STA: 54)
Tommy Pyne (DE) is at 75% energy, needs rest at 75%. (STA: 78)
Edgar Smith (S) is at 78% energy, needs rest at 75%. (STA: 47)
+1:00.072: .139 Q4/02:51(171), NYA17-LAA14, LAA 2/14.4: Timelog (clock was running, time strategy Hurry Up): 19 seconds off clock for: Huddle, clock is running
O-line (P,L,M,R,X), 772, 282, 444, 810, 0
D-line (P,L,M,R), 430, 0, 0, 85
+1:00.072: .139 Q4/02:51(171), NYA17-LAA14, LAA 2/14.4: Total sack rate: 6
+1:00.072: .139 Q4/02:51(171), NYA17-LAA14, LAA 2/14.4: Resolving play:
+1:00.072: .139 Q4/02:46(166), NYA17-LAA14, LAA 2/14.4: Timelog (clock was running, time strategy Hurry Up): 5 seconds off clock for: Play time (rush or snap to pass), clock is running
Pass calculation: tAcc:76.5, tPow: 89, Exe: 0
Base completion rate: 916
After passer accuracy/power/exe (68.15) adjust (-61: 855
Pressure adjust: 0, QB execution counters 0, total adjust 0
After pressure adjust: 855
After strategy, tip adjust and OOB adjusts:444
Tipped rate: 68
Defended rate: 104
QB err rate: 9
Dist adjustment -34, wind vector: 1.4
Temperature adjustment to passing power: 0
+1:00.072: .139 Q4/02:46(166), NYA17-LAA14, LAA 2/14.4: No passer power adjust (890 - 0 temperature adjustment vs 8.3 yards)
After distance adjustment: (8 yards): 478
After league completion adjustment (40): 518
Comp rate is below 530 (518), adding receiver bonus of 12
Interception rate: 80
Short rate: 0, wide rate: 34
Short int rate: 0, wide int rate: 8
Drop rate: 37, wet drop rate: 0
After drop rate:493
Great catch rate:1
Great catch to avoid Int rate:0
Final completion rate for Leach: 493
=====================================
Now this play is a perfect example of a problem in the system. The final completion rate is 49.3% which is way too high considering the defense is keyed in and thus using a perfect defense. Which is why I have been combing through these calculation for the last few weeks but as you can see there are so many different modules being simulated here that all have to average out to 60% over time but vary wildly from play to play.
Additionally, at least to me, having the 2 additional defensive play calls for each down and distance has actually make it less probable that the defense will make the right call in the right spot. This is particularly true because there seems to be no advantage in calling anything other than SAM/WLL blitz. (Which are effective in stopping running plays from Shotgun). If you dont need more than 1 blitz its mathematically wrong to call anything other than a run defense, a medium pass defense, a deep pass defense and a blitz. By adding additional play calls you are actually lowering the chances of having the right play called. At least thats how it seems to me.
Well, remember that blitzing more than 3 or 4 times in a quarter starts to make the blitz less and less effective in generating pressure as the OL adjusts. But yes, having more play calls increases randomness which is why I resisted for so long. But no one is required to use the extra options.
Chris
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