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Rookie Report, 2002

January 05, 2014 at 07:16AM View formatted

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First, a couple of pertinent links. After living with the game and picking the brains of some of the Sim's better players, I've tightened up the "Red Letter Development Curve" for this year's analysis. You can find that and other answers to what are sure to be some questions at the [b][u][url=http://forum.simdynasty.com/viewthread.php?tid=366380&page=1#pid1941177]RR FAQ[/b][/u][/url].

The report I did two years ago, if interested, is [b][u][url=http://forum.simdynasty.com/viewthread.php?tid=366716]here[/b][/u][/url].

I did follow up on the tweak written about at the bottom of that report, in that I began averaging everyone's "Draft Score" to keep us all on the same playing field.

I have a couple of other tweaks in mind, maybe for the next report. I'm considering multiplying your Draft Score by your Draft Difficulty Score that would generate, theoretically, how well an owner ranks and drafts the amateurs.

I'm also thinking about taking your average Standings finish over the past three seasons and coupling that with your overall score in some way (haven't decided yet) to put the teams with lower minor league scores but success with the major league club in proper perspective. As we all know, winning teams tend to trade away their rookie talent to keep winning and I'd like to account for that, somehow.

One last thing I'm mentally gnawing on is trying to get a handle on your coaching priorities ... because this year I have noticed (more so than previous years) that the best prospects are not always the ones getting the CPs because of needs/anticipated needs on the major league club. But going down that road would involve quite a bit more time and analysis of each roster and I'm not yet ready to commit to that ... this magilla takes about a full day to put together as it is.

Finally, this year, I've got a new graphic to capture the MML Minor League "All Stars" as your bonus for missing a season. But without further ado:

[size=4][b][color=blue]MINOR LEAGUE SYSTEM OF THE YEAR[/size][/b][/color]
[i]Pittsburgh Stealers[/i]

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[size=4][b]NATIONAL LEAGUE[/size][/b]

[b]BROOKLYN BOHEMIANS - GRADE: [color=blue]B[/color][/b] (2000 Grade: C) [i]Draft Difficulty: 22.7, a 7.4 jump!
Snapshot taken: SimSeptember 12.2002[/i]
[u]TOP FIVE ROOKIES[/u] (CPs) - [i]An asterisk indicates on last list, too.[/i]
1. In Ho Pak, CF (5)*
2. Rueben Mayes, RP (5)
3. Harry Schriver, RP (5)
4. Figaro Benitez, RP (3)
5. Jim Parmelee, RF (0) - "Close"
Strength of System: 6 rookies in majors, 6 minors; 67% on track, up from 50%.
Team Youth: 30% of 40-man roster is OS25 or younger. Same as last report.
[i]Notes: RP Figaro Benitez would normally have come third on the prospect list, but I do make allowances for bundling issues, and he has 'em. The Bohemians have gone into rebuild mode and are doing it well. They've had the worst Draft picks in the National League over the past three years but now have the youngest farm team. This suggests a long rebuild, but it looks like it will be a strong one.[/i]

[b]CHICAGO CUBS - GRADE: [color=maroon]C[/color][/b] (2000 Grade: B) [i]Draft Difficulty: 10.7, up 4.7 points
Snapshot taken: SimSeptember 13.2002[/i]
[u]TOP FIVE ROOKIES[/u] (CPs) - [i]An asterisk indicates on last list, too.[/i]
1. Jack Bauer, SS (5)*
2. Raylan Givens, RF (5)*
3. Leo Chan, SP (5)* -- age 24!
4. Chico Hernandez, LF (3)
5. Tom Higgins, 2b (0) - "Close"
Strength of System: 1 MLB, 7 minors; 50% on curve, down from 58%.
Team Youth: Only 20% of 40-man roster is OS25 or younger. A drop of 10% as team has been winning with veterans.
[i]Notes: I had to violate the rules to compile a score for the Cubs as they have *zero* pitchers of a prospect age, so I went with the one they were coaching, 24-year old Leo Chan. They do have CPs on non-bonafide CF Jim Harris with a 33-year old LF, but don't seem to be position-training the rookie, which our analysts found curious as LF prospect Hernandez won't be ready in time.[/i]

[b]CINCINNATI PEE WEES - GRADE: [color=maroon]C-[/color][/b] (2000 Grade: C-) [i]Draft Difficulty: 14.0, a 7.7 hike; indicates major league success
Snapshot taken: SimSeptember 13.2002[/i]
[u]TOP FIVE ROOKIES[/u] (CPs) - [i]An asterisk indicates on last list, too. NB is "Not Bonafide," added to round out top five.[/i]
1. Julio Bell, RP (5)* - on Trade Desk
2. Walter Weyhing, 1b (5)
3. Gary Boudreau, SS (5)* - on Trade Desk, "Close"
4. Ed Florence, RF (2) - on Trade Desk ~ NB
5. Tex Clark, RF (0)* ~ NB
Strength of System: 2 MLB, 10 minors; Only 25% on red letter curve, same as last time.
Team Youth: 30% of 40-man roster is OS25 or younger. A drop of 10%.
[i]Notes: Had to once again go outside the confines of the guide here, as the Pee Wees only have two bonafide rookies and two who are close on the farm. RF Florence qualifies as neither, but he's being coached so I included him. The other three Coach Points are being used on a 25-year old CF, but the guy patrolling center in the majors is *35,* so it's understandable. This is a winning franchise so, like Milwaukee of previous reports, the RR has to cut him some slack.[/i]

[b]LOS ANGELES LANCERS - GRADE: [color=blue]B[/color][/b] (2000 Grade: F) [i]Draft Difficulty: 4.0, 10 points below last report; system should be stocked.
Snapshot taken: SimSeptember 13.2002[/i]
[u]TOP FIVE ROOKIES[/u] (CPs) - [i]An asterisk indicates on last list, too.[/i]
1. Scott Bell, 1b (5)*
2. Wenty Thormahlen, RP (5)
3. Mark Kim, 3b (3)*
4. Brad McClellan, SS (2) - w/Milwaukee last report
5. Don Priest, SP (5)
Strength of System: 5 MLB, 12 minors; 35% with promising development (down 15%; no major league rookies considered strong).
Team Youth: 43% of 40-man roster is OS25 or younger, 7% off last report.
[i]Notes: Current standings plus last two years team has been in seventh or last, which usually hurts Scouting Score by having access to *too many* bonafide prospects, as is the case here. To team credit, five of the six red letter candidates are being coached and team priorities are in better shape than last time, as witnessed by the total score jump. LA wins "Most Improved System" award for the National League.[/i]

[b]MILWAUKEE PUNS - GRADE: [color=red]D[/color][/b] (2000 Grade: F) [i]Draft Difficulty: 18.0, down only a point over last 2 years; second highest in NL.
Snapshot taken: SimSeptember 13.2002[/i]
[u]TOP FIVE ROOKIES[/u] (CPs) - [i]An asterisk indicates on last list, too. NB is "Not Bonafide," added to round out top five.[/i]
1. Jeff Orton, LF (5)
2. Paul Pagnozzi, RP (5) - "Close"
3. Jack Valentin, SS (5) - "Close"
4. Dick Dicken, SP (0) - "Close"
5. Bob Evans, SS (2) ~ NB
Strength of System: 1 MLB, 13 minors; but only 14% are solid prospects, one in minors, one in majors. Down 3%.
Team Youth: 35% of 40-man roster is OS25 or younger, making the last four reports 35-30-23-15 as team slowly reloads.
[i]Notes: One of the few teams to have completely turned over their top five list, the Puns have but one bonafide prospect in LF Orton with three others close and one of those (SP Dicken) has bundling issues, explaining the 0 CP total. The final 3 CPs are on a 24-year old RP.[/i]

[b]PHILADELPHIA BELL RINGERS - GRADE: [color=maroon]C[/color][/b] (2000 Grade: C-) [i]Draft Difficulty: 9.3, up for second consecutive report, this time 5.6 points.
Snapshot taken: SimSeptember 16.2002[/i]
[u]TOP FIVE ROOKIES[/u] (CPs) - [i]An asterisk indicates on last list, too.[/i]
1. Rogers Malave, SS (5)
2. Coco Durbin, LF (5)*
3. Kevin Siegle, SP (3)* - "Close"
4. Phil Bennett, RF (5)
5. Doug Encarnacion, SS (0) - "Close"
Strength of System: 1 MLB, a dozen in minors; 31% on red letter track, down 19%.
Team Youth: 33% of 40-man roster is OS25 or younger, up 3%, which is interesting. Normally a winning team will see that number go down.
[i]Notes: GreyEagle has built a solid competitor for his swan song in the MML. He still has too many players on the farm - 20 - which will thin his CP distribution, but I suspect that's also one reason behind his Youth Score rising. SP Siegle was actually Philly's *fourth* best prospect but ABE and the RR guidelines demand a pitcher be in the top three so I had to bump him, since neither of the other two prospects were pitchers.[/i]

[b]PITTSBURGH STEALERS - GRADE: [color=magenta]A[/color][/b] (2000 Grade: B) [i]Draft Difficulty: 6.0, up a tick, 2.3 points.
Snapshot taken: SimSeptember 16.2002[/i]
[u]TOP FIVE ROOKIES[/u] (CPs) - [i]An asterisk indicates on last list, too.[/i]
1. Doug Favell, C (3)*
2. George Cashion, RP (5)
3. Jacque Frost, SP (5)*
4. George Moffitt, 2b (5)
5. Al "Remember The" Aloma, CF (2)*
Strength of System: 6 MLB, 9 in minors; 67% on red letter track, up another 8% and most (10) bonafide rookies in NL.
Team Youth: 38% of 40-man roster is OS25 or younger, down 5% as team transitions into solid competitor.
[i]Notes: The only "A" grade in the MML, sirguru75 aced both the Scouting and Coaching score and if he'd flipped the CP totals on Favell and Moffitt, it would have been the first perfect score ever.[/i]

[b]ST. LOUIS PIONEERS - GRADE: [color=maroon]C[/color][/b] (2000 Grade: B) [i]Draft Difficulty: 2.0, a drop of 6.3 points as the Pioneers have ridden the bottom of the NL Standings recently.
Snapshot taken: SimSeptember 16.2002[/i]
[u]TOP FIVE ROOKIES[/u] (CPs) - [i]An asterisk indicates on last list, too. NB is "Not Bonafide," added to round out top five.[/i]
1. Rob Gibson, SP (5) - only red letter rookie still on the farm!
2. Ed Simmons, C (5)*
3. LeRon Durham, 1b (5)
4. Marty Rodriguez, CF (0) - "Close"
5. Buddy Hollahan, SP (3) ~ NB
Strength of System: 8 MLB, 11 in minors; 19 is most in the NL, and 42% are red letter rookies, which slipped 8%.
Team Youth: A whopping 48% of 40-man roster is OS25 or younger, nearly half the team, a rise of 13 points.
[i]Notes: With only three bonafide rookies on the farm and one close, I had to add Hollahan into the mix to come up with five. Most of St. Louis' young talent is already in the majors. They have a fantastic looking young rotation, which is allowing them to coach other pitching prospects not even considered close in hopes of elevating their status, but for the moment it's damaging their score.[/i]


[size=4][b]AMERICAN LEAGUE[/size][/b]

[b]ANAHEIM AVENGERS - GRADE: [color=red]D[/color][/b] (2000 Grade: C-) [i]Draft Difficulty: 12.0, a rise of 3 points, which is what making the playoffs does.
Snapshot taken: SimSeptember 12.2002[/i]
[u]TOP FIVE ROOKIES[/u] (CPs) - [i]An asterisk indicates on last list, too. NB is "Not Bonafide," added to round out top five.[/i]
1. Paul McAllister, RF (5)*
2. Reggie Smith, 3b (5) - "Close"
3. David Wells, SP (5) ~ NB
4. Jack Dawson, 3b (3) ~ NB
5. Scooby Shephard, RF (0) ~ NB
Strength of System: Nobody in majors under 25, half a dozen in minors; only 17% are tracking properly, a major drop of 27 points!
Team Youth: Only 15% on entire roster are OS25 and younger; this is the oldest team in the MML, an 8 point drop.
[i]Notes: McAllister is only bonafide red letter rookie; Smith is close, the other three are age-grade tiebreakers among non-prospects. Standings over current and last two years are 3-2-3 which indicates a competitive team, so much can be forgiven.[/i]

[b]BOSTON BATTALION - GRADE: [color=red]D[/color][/b] (2000 Grade: F) [i]Draft Difficulty: 3.0, five point drop as Merlintp33 rebuilds, but this is the best draft position in the AL.
Snapshot taken: SimSeptember 12.2002[/i]
[u]TOP FIVE ROOKIES[/u] (CPs) - [i]An asterisk indicates on last list, too. NB is "Not Bonafide," added to round out top five.[/i]
1. John Dixon, RF (5)
2. Larry Malloy, CF (3)
3. Jose Johnson, RP (2) ~ NB
4. Tommy Thomas, SS (5) ~ NB
5. Art Miller, RP (5) ~ NB
Strength of System: Nine in majors under 25, only five in minors; 36% are promising, a slight tick up of 3 points.
Team Youth: 35% of roster is OS25 and younger; a gain of five points.
[i]Notes: For all their shortcomings - only two bonafide prospects on farm, no one close, and had to fill the rest of top five out with coached non-prospects - Boston gets the "Most Improved System" Award for the American League. mrkinthdrk left the roster pretty barren and merlintp33 is doing the best he can with it.[/i]

[b]CHICAGO WHALES - GRADE: [color=blue]B[/color][/b] (2000 Grade: C) [i]Draft Difficulty: 6.3, a negligible 0.4 drop.
Snapshot taken: SimSeptember 12.2002[/i]
[u]TOP FIVE ROOKIES[/u] (CPs) - [i]An asterisk indicates on last list, too.[/i]
1. Lou Collins, LF (5)
2. Jim Cruz, 3b (5)*
3. Tommie Brizzolara, SP (5)
4. Zip Hutchinson, LF (2) - "Close"
5. Max Cristante, 3b (3) - "Close"
Strength of System: A pair in majors OS25 or younger, a dozen in minors; 36% overall are on red letter curve, 4 points down.
Team Youth: 35% of roster is OS25 and younger; only 3 points off; the Whales remain consistent.
[i]Notes: The Whales have always kept a weather eye on the minors and if not for the fact that two of these top five are only "close," their score would be nearly perfect.[/i]

[b]CLEVELAND BLACK ROX - GRADE: [color=blue]B[/color][/b] (2000 Grade: C-) [i]Draft Difficulty: 14.0, an even more negligible 0.3 drop from last report.
Snapshot taken: SimSeptember 12.2002[/i]
[u]TOP FIVE ROOKIES[/u] (CPs) - [i]An asterisk indicates on last list, too.[/i]
1. Harry Leonard, C (5)
2. Phil Fetters, RP (3)
3. Cantaloupe Wells, RP (5)
4. Max Foley, CF (0)
5. Marv Taylor, 1b (4)
Strength of System: 4 in majors OS25 or younger, twice that many in minors; 50% are bonafide, a 14 points increase.
Team Youth: 30% of roster is OS25 and younger; a 2 point increase.
[i]Notes: The Black Rox have managed to accumulate the youngest farm team in the GGL, and have a perfect Scouting Score, but Development priorities are not, at the moment, lining up with prospect status.[/i]

[b]KANSAS CITY SLOUGHS - GRADE: [color=blue]B[/color][/b] (2000 Grade: C) [i]Draft Difficulty: 11.3, a 3.7 drop even though they have continued to make the playoffs.
Snapshot taken: SimSeptember 12.2002[/i]
[u]TOP FIVE ROOKIES[/u] (CPs) - [i]An asterisk indicates on last list, too.[/i]
1. Stu Bradley, 2b (5)*
2. Gabe Head, SP (5)
3. Red Runge, 2b (3)
4. Slim Holloway, 2b (4)*
5. John Capra, RP (0)
Strength of System: Only one in majors OS25 or younger, eight on the farm; 56% are bound for red letters, same as last report.
Team Youth: 23% of roster is OS25 and younger; same as last time.
[i]Notes: There's a reason the Sloughs win year in and year out (as they look at their potentially eighth straight postseason), and that's their consistent judge of and development of talent. This "B" grade is an 86.7 overall, which is the highest in the American League.[/i]

[b]NEW YORK YANKEES - GRADE: [color=blue]B-[/color][/b] (2000 Grade: D) [i]Draft Difficulty: 16.7, up 2.7 as team is improving.
Snapshot taken: SimSeptember 12.2002[/i]
[u]TOP FIVE ROOKIES[/u] (CPs) - [i]An asterisk indicates on last list, too. NB is "Not Bonafide," added to round out top five.[/i]
1. Tom Brewer, RP (5)
2. Garey Cates, LF (5)
3. Chick Hageman, SP (5)
4. Jim Meers, 3b (3) - "Close"
5. Gary Vaughn, RF (0) ~ NB
Strength of System: 4 in majors OS25 or younger, nine on the farm; 31% are on red letter track, down five points and down for second report in a row.
Team Youth: 33% of roster is OS25 and younger; up five points.
[i]Notes: The Yankees have their Development priorities straight, their scouts simply haven't been able to come up with enough bonafide prospects. There are only three "legitimate" rookies and one "close" in their system. Their final 2 CPs are aimed at a 25-year old relief pitcher.[/i]

[b]TORONTO AEROS - GRADE: [color=maroon]C[/color][/b] (2000 Grade: C) [i]Draft Difficulty: 18.3, up 17.3 points! Worst draft position in the AL.
Snapshot taken: SimSeptember 12.2002[/i]
[u]TOP FIVE ROOKIES[/u] (CPs) - [i]An asterisk indicates on last list, too.[/i]
1. Esteban Solano, 3b (5)*
2. Claude Worrell, RP (5)*
3. Terry Hoffman, CF (2) - on Trade Desk
4. Mike Lahti, C (5)
5. Ray Micelotta, SS (0) - "Close"
Strength of System: 8 in majors OS25 or younger, and 8 in minors; 63% are on red letter development curve; this is down 25 points from last time, but team was rebuilding then and has come into its own since. Highest Strength Score in the American League.
Team Youth: 40% of roster is OS25 and younger; down 3 points.
[i]Notes: With nearly half the roster OS25 or younger and nearly two-thirds bound for red letters, this is a team that should enjoy a very long playoff run. Can you say Dynasty?[/i]

[b]WASHINGTON LAME DUCKS - GRADE: [color=maroon]C-[/color][/b] (2000 Grade: F) [i]Draft Difficulty: 5.3, down 5.7 points and down for second report in a row.
Snapshot taken: SimSeptember 12.2002[/i]
[u]TOP FIVE ROOKIES[/u] (CPs) - [i]An asterisk indicates on last list, too.[/i]
1. Charlie Allen, RP (5)
2. Ralph Ruebel, RP (2)*
3. Frank Campbell, 3b (3)
4. David Chavez, 1b (5) - "Close"
5. Oscar Edge, LF (5) - "Close"
Strength of System: 11 in majors OS25 or younger (most in the MML), 13 in the minors (most in the MML); 46% are on track to see red; up 1 point.
Team Youth: A mammoth 60% of roster is OS25 and younger; this could be the highest percentage in Rookie Report history.
[i]Notes: The Lame Ducks have started a youth movement in a big, big way. However, out of all this youth, only three minor league rookies are considered bonafide, while five more are very close. Our analysts did find it curious that with a pair of elder backstops in the majors, Close Candidate Catcher Greg Raschi wasn't getting any CP attention. We would not be surprised if this score was higher in the next report as the team is fielding *six* first round draft picks, the most in the MML.[/i]

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[img]http://markmail.smugmug.com/Sports/SimDynasty/i-vV8MCZk/0/L/MML_FarmTeamAnalysis-L.jpg[/img]

[Edited on 1-5-2014 by ballmark]
ballmark

January 05, 2014 at 07:31AM View BBCode

And now, your 2002 Minor League All Stars:

raverob

January 05, 2014 at 01:43PM View BBCode

As always a great job. I know I can speak for the league and want to thank you for the work into this report . .This being just a game you add a little something to make it almost real . We are lucky to have a guy like you here and hope you remain with us for a long time ..

Thanks again BOB :D
scitel

January 05, 2014 at 05:23PM View BBCode

Absolutely fantastic! Great job on this and along with the draft and improvement updates after the season, I look forward to this and appreciate the hard work. It's a fun thing to review. I think the minor league All-Stars is a nice touch too!

I guess I'll likely never get a perfect score though because I almost always do a 5-5-4-3-3. Then again, if I feel I only have 3 prospects worth a darn. Does ABE actually recommend 5-5-5-3-2?

KC - Chris
fredbirds

January 05, 2014 at 09:21PM View BBCode

Thanks for doing this and as per our conversation I will soon have up the Futures All-Star Team for each league based on who has the brightest future rather than who currently has the highest rating.
ballmark

January 06, 2014 at 02:47AM View BBCode

Jeff and I had a brief U2U about the Minor League All Stars graphic I posted. I stand by it being of the "All Star" variety, as that's what it's all about ... players whose current performance stands out above others. It is not nor was ever meant to be any sort of indicator as to future performance or reliability. It is made up of players on farm teams with the highest grade at their position ... if two or more grades were tied, I took the youngest player. That's it.

Jeff's post - and it's a very good one - is an attempt to forecast future development and make a quite educated guess on how a rookie will turn out. I thought it was a fantastic idea to complement the Rookie Report. While there are and will be many, many players who overlap the two reports, Jeff's work will wind up unearthing "hidden" gems that the RR misses; especially on those few teams who have more than five solid rookies.

Here's hoping you all enjoy both flavors!
BrodieBruce

January 06, 2014 at 03:44AM View BBCode

Terrific as always!
Conballs

January 06, 2014 at 06:49PM View BBCode

Thanks again for this report! It's a great way to see who the up and coming teams are.
sirguru75

January 07, 2014 at 06:00PM View BBCode

//if he'd flipped the CP totals on Favell and Moffitt, it would have been the first perfect score ever.//

Please note that Favell has had more IC (57) than Moffitt (53)...

:)

McKay "Amazing" Grace must have been in the majors filling in for an injury when you took your snapshot. (And he did well filling in - batting over .300 in his limited time in the majors).
ballmark

January 07, 2014 at 06:48PM View BBCode

Interesting. I shall have to compare the Improvements Report against my picks in the future for additional insights. Of course, if I'd started my research when I normally - much earlier in the season - that would have made a difference, as well.
chuckymanfreedy3

January 09, 2014 at 05:42AM View BBCode

Great work, as always. Your analysis, in my opinion, are always spot on. Looks like my young squad finally started turning the corner this season. They fell apart at the end, but it was was a magical ride for a bit LOL.

By the way, Chris Roberts and Ryoto Ohka tied for the Cy Young! Both had absolutely DOMINANT seasons. What happens with the tie?!
ballmark

January 09, 2014 at 06:44AM View BBCode

Last I saw it was Ohka at 236 and Roberts at 235. Roberts clearly had the better stat line, but I think Cleveland making the playoffs put Ryota over the top.

The formula:
((5*IP/9)-ER) + (SO/12) + (SV*2.5) + Shutouts + ((W*6)-(L*2)) + 12 points if your team makes the playoffs.
chuckymanfreedy3

January 09, 2014 at 07:52AM View BBCode

Ah, you're right! I checked after Ohka's final start and they were tied. Just assumed the score wouldn't change. I guess Cleveland clinching the playoff berth put him over the top. Congrats! He's the best pitcher I've ever seen in this sim. He's the MML's Sandy Koufax

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