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Splinter
Seems that FG range in cold weather is low and they might be kicks that should be punts instead.
FG decision making
December 13, 2012 at 04:57PM View formatted
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Does ABE reduce the FG success % for cold weather kicks?
Seems that FG range in cold weather is low and they might be kicks that should be punts instead.
Admin
Here is a chart based on NFL data:
Looking at this in Sim Dynasty terms, here are the results with an average kicker and holder (87 power, 89 accuracy, 67 Execution) with no wind kicking from the 30:
At 60 degrees: 79.50%
At 45 degrees: 78.25%
At 30 degrees: 75.25%
At 15 degrees: 69.56%
At 0 degrees: 60.74%
Looking at this in terms of actual distance:
At 60 degrees: Average kick 71.1 yards
At 45 degrees: Average kick 67.3 yards
At 30 degrees: Average kick 63.6 yards
At 15 degrees: Average kick 60.0 yards
At 0 degrees: Average kick 56.6 yards
The study the graph above was taken from suggests that NFL kickers lose about 5 yards for every 30 degrees of temperature drop. We're losing about 7.5-8 yards per 30 degrees, so I may need to make a slight adjustment.
Chris
[Edited on 12-13-2012 by Admin]
December 13, 2012 at 07:25PM View BBCode
Yes, cold-weather kicks don't travel as far. There are two factors at work here: Cold temperatures increase drag, and a cold football is firmer and isn't going to fly as fast leaving the foot. The cold no doubt has an effect on the kicker as well.Here is a chart based on NFL data:
Looking at this in Sim Dynasty terms, here are the results with an average kicker and holder (87 power, 89 accuracy, 67 Execution) with no wind kicking from the 30:
At 60 degrees: 79.50%
At 45 degrees: 78.25%
At 30 degrees: 75.25%
At 15 degrees: 69.56%
At 0 degrees: 60.74%
Looking at this in terms of actual distance:
At 60 degrees: Average kick 71.1 yards
At 45 degrees: Average kick 67.3 yards
At 30 degrees: Average kick 63.6 yards
At 15 degrees: Average kick 60.0 yards
At 0 degrees: Average kick 56.6 yards
The study the graph above was taken from suggests that NFL kickers lose about 5 yards for every 30 degrees of temperature drop. We're losing about 7.5-8 yards per 30 degrees, so I may need to make a slight adjustment.
Chris
[Edited on 12-13-2012 by Admin]
Admin
Chris
December 13, 2012 at 07:44PM View BBCode
Note that when the game calculates the chance of success it uses the actual in-game factors, including temperature, wind and conditioning. What it actually does is simulate 5000 kicks on the spot and takes the success rate of those kicks as the chance of making that field goal.Chris
Splinter
Thanks. I was hoping that was the case.
December 13, 2012 at 08:51PM View BBCode
Originally posted by Admin
Note that when the game calculates the chance of success it uses the actual in-game factors, including temperature, wind and conditioning.
Thanks. I was hoping that was the case.
Splinter
December 14, 2012 at 02:14AM View BBCode
Well, I just had a 51 harder kicked against me in 18 degree weather.
Splinter
December 14, 2012 at 02:15AM View BBCode
Well, I just had a 51 harder kicked against me in 18 degree weather.Pages: 1