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RichNYC1
As well.. I know I?ve said this before, but it doesn?t rain at every Jet game, every week. But it does at my games. I know that the weather is dictated by some weather service data, but honestly, there has to be a glitch somewhere. Maybe if it rains any one day during that week than you get a rain game on Sunday?
Furthermore, I challenge anyone to tell me that theyīve heard an announcer say "dropped due to a wet ball" at any time during this 2011 season. I may live in Colombia, but I have Direct TV (the wonders of modern technology!) and I watch everything, it just doesn?t happen.
You want to throw a "wet ball" drop in there every so often, OK, but really, itīs absurd right now
Drop Drop Drop Drop Drop Rain Rain Rain Rain Rian
November 01, 2011 at 03:46PM View BBCode
I have a WR, overall rating 90, (91 Ctch, 68 hands). He has 13 drops through 6 1/2 games. That must be a world record and itīs outrageous. I can?t imagine what must be going on with other WRīs.As well.. I know I?ve said this before, but it doesn?t rain at every Jet game, every week. But it does at my games. I know that the weather is dictated by some weather service data, but honestly, there has to be a glitch somewhere. Maybe if it rains any one day during that week than you get a rain game on Sunday?
Furthermore, I challenge anyone to tell me that theyīve heard an announcer say "dropped due to a wet ball" at any time during this 2011 season. I may live in Colombia, but I have Direct TV (the wonders of modern technology!) and I watch everything, it just doesn?t happen.
You want to throw a "wet ball" drop in there every so often, OK, but really, itīs absurd right now
tworoosters
Not counting exhibition games you've had one home game with rain this year in the BPFL, three in 1963, three in 1962, two in 1961 and four in 1960.
That's a total of 13 home games with rain out of 36, or less than 40%.
November 01, 2011 at 04:10PM View BBCode
Originally posted by RichNYC1
As well.. I know I?ve said this before, but it doesn?t rain at every Jet game, every week. But it does at my games.
Not counting exhibition games you've had one home game with rain this year in the BPFL, three in 1963, three in 1962, two in 1961 and four in 1960.
That's a total of 13 home games with rain out of 36, or less than 40%.
redcped
November 01, 2011 at 04:57PM View BBCode
My boss is from Colombia. He just went home for a visit recently. This increases the number of connections I have to that country to two.
Admin
No, it only shows rain if it calculates rain on that Sunday. Usually we have the opposite problem, where cities are clear too often. I'll check the NY weather data to make sure it's not screwed up.
An announcer wouldn't, but I want to feed back to the player which calculation caused the drop. It's not a random "sometimes I'll put "wet ball" in the description", it is specifically saying that would have been a completed pass if it were a clear day. There are several things like that which you would never see in a box score (for that matter you wouldn't even see the "drop" description in a box score) but that I include so the owner knows why things happened (for example, different interception wordings whether the interception was due to the QB or the receiver).
As far as the number of drops, they were actually reduced not long ago, but since each play is independent, it is theoretically possible for any player to drop every single ball, just as it's possible for a player to never drop a ball, but over time the averages league-wide should be similar to the NFL.
--Chris
November 01, 2011 at 05:06PM View BBCode
Originally posted by RichNYC1
As well.. I know I?ve said this before, but it doesn?t rain at every Jet game, every week. But it does at my games. I know that the weather is dictated by some weather service data, but honestly, there has to be a glitch somewhere. Maybe if it rains any one day during that week than you get a rain game on Sunday?
No, it only shows rain if it calculates rain on that Sunday. Usually we have the opposite problem, where cities are clear too often. I'll check the NY weather data to make sure it's not screwed up.
Furthermore, I challenge anyone to tell me that theyīve heard an announcer say "dropped due to a wet ball" at any time during this 2011 season. I may live in Colombia, but I have Direct TV (the wonders of modern technology!) and I watch everything, it just doesn?t happen.
You want to throw a "wet ball" drop in there every so often, OK, but really, itīs absurd right now
An announcer wouldn't, but I want to feed back to the player which calculation caused the drop. It's not a random "sometimes I'll put "wet ball" in the description", it is specifically saying that would have been a completed pass if it were a clear day. There are several things like that which you would never see in a box score (for that matter you wouldn't even see the "drop" description in a box score) but that I include so the owner knows why things happened (for example, different interception wordings whether the interception was due to the QB or the receiver).
As far as the number of drops, they were actually reduced not long ago, but since each play is independent, it is theoretically possible for any player to drop every single ball, just as it's possible for a player to never drop a ball, but over time the averages league-wide should be similar to the NFL.
--Chris
RichNYC1
Let me just say this. This game takes a lot of time and attention. It should reward players that take that time to get it right. I?m not saying that bad things don?t happen even when you do things perfectly. Itīs sports, sometimes it makes no sense. But generally speaking, I don?t think crappy weather and excessive drops does anything to help sell the game to a paying customer. If youīve taken the time to out play someone but are constantly beaten by a computer "decision" whatīs the point? You might as well go play online poker and really get screwed.
The real problem here is the over effectiveness of the passing game. And to me itīs not that guys get open, it is (and continues) to be the inability to defend the short pass. Passing effectiveness (as I see it) should be decreased when teams ONLY dink and dunk, (just like when you go long too much) not increased as it is now. If you are only doing one thing the defense should get wise to it and that just doesn?t happen in the short passing game. I honestly feel that we are penalized for being unpredictable but if you sit there are throw 35 short passes you are rewarded, and I think thatīs a bad thing.
November 01, 2011 at 05:38PM View BBCode
Heīs now at 15 drops after todayīs game and my team dropped a total of 9 passes in that game alone. That?s insane.Let me just say this. This game takes a lot of time and attention. It should reward players that take that time to get it right. I?m not saying that bad things don?t happen even when you do things perfectly. Itīs sports, sometimes it makes no sense. But generally speaking, I don?t think crappy weather and excessive drops does anything to help sell the game to a paying customer. If youīve taken the time to out play someone but are constantly beaten by a computer "decision" whatīs the point? You might as well go play online poker and really get screwed.
The real problem here is the over effectiveness of the passing game. And to me itīs not that guys get open, it is (and continues) to be the inability to defend the short pass. Passing effectiveness (as I see it) should be decreased when teams ONLY dink and dunk, (just like when you go long too much) not increased as it is now. If you are only doing one thing the defense should get wise to it and that just doesn?t happen in the short passing game. I honestly feel that we are penalized for being unpredictable but if you sit there are throw 35 short passes you are rewarded, and I think thatīs a bad thing.
RichNYC1
Ive been here for about 4 years, its paradise. I live in Medellin, the city of eternal spring where every day is 72 degrees. It rains for an hour, its beautiful for 3-4 hours and than it rains again. Kinda like my BPFL games ;). Ive lived in some cool places around the world, but this takes the cake.
Come on down! Its truely the best place in the world for a single guy to vaca. But be careful, they say the only risk (besides the incredibly hot women) is wanting to stay.... and it really is true.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzZe0gcc0eY
November 01, 2011 at 06:54PM View BBCode
Originally posted by redcped
My boss is from Colombia. He just went home for a visit recently. This increases the number of connections I have to that country to two.
Ive been here for about 4 years, its paradise. I live in Medellin, the city of eternal spring where every day is 72 degrees. It rains for an hour, its beautiful for 3-4 hours and than it rains again. Kinda like my BPFL games ;). Ive lived in some cool places around the world, but this takes the cake.
Come on down! Its truely the best place in the world for a single guy to vaca. But be careful, they say the only risk (besides the incredibly hot women) is wanting to stay.... and it really is true.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzZe0gcc0eY
Admin
+0:35.185: 7485.1 Q1/14:17(857), NYA 1/10.0: Pass calculation:
Base completion rate: 80.5%
After weather (lt rain, 47 degrees) adjust: 78.5%
After passer accuracy (87.9) adjust: 117.9%
Pressure adjust: 0, QB execution counters 0, total adjust 0
After pressure adjust: 117.9%
After strategy, tip adjust and OOB adjusts: 113.2%
Tipped rate: 1.3%
Defended rate: 2.0%
QB err rate: 0.4%
Dist adjustment: 2.8%
No passer power adjust (82.4 power vs 24.5 yards)
After distance adjustment: (24 yards): 110.4%
Intercept adjust due to distance: +0.3%
Interception rate: 0.3%
Short rate: 1.4%, wide rate: 3.4%
Short int rate: 0.3%, wide int rate: 1.1%
Drop rate: 7.4%, wet drop rate: 2.1%
After drop rate (final completion rate): 85.5%
Great catch rate: 1.9%
Great catch to avoid Int rate: 0.2%
Defender is Calvin Elliott
Offensive plan is PassLongSL from strategy O-2l
Defensive plan is CoverRunBal from strategy D-2l
Timelog (clock was stopped, time strategy Normal): 0 seconds off clock for: Huddle, clock is running
O-line (P,L,M,R,X), 895, 718, 972, 1000, 739
D-line (P,L,M,R), 514, 368, 317, 355
Total sack rate: 0.4%
Checkdown rate: 19.4%
So in this case the defense was way overmatched; a completion was just about certain (either to the main target (66.1%) or a checkdown target (19.4%)); unfortunately, the dice came up wrong, hitting the 7.4% drop rate.
The intercept rate here looks low, I need to check that out. The defender was safety [url=http://footballbeta.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=169534]Calvin Elliot[/url] who has great pass coverage but lousy catching skills. The target was [url=http://footballbeta.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=172675]Kevin McMillian[/url] who has good catching but average hands.
Much of the math on drops is based on http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2010/offensive-drop-rate . In that article, a 6.2% drop rate is referred to as "respectable" so his 7.4% drop calculation on 52 Hands doesn't seem horribly out of whack.
Now this is only the first drop; it happened so quickly into the game that the players were all relatively fresh. His drop rate would no doubt climb as he got more tired, and perhaps I am not taking that into account properly. Last time I did an analysis of drops, we determined that they were high and I reduced them by the amount they were high, but the sim suffers heavily from "butterfly effect" where making an adjustment in one place can throw off balance somewhere else so I'm not adverse to analyzing it again.
--Chris
November 01, 2011 at 07:22PM View BBCode
I am looking at the game. Here is the pass calculation for the first drop by your team:+0:35.185: 7485.1 Q1/14:17(857), NYA 1/10.0: Pass calculation:
Base completion rate: 80.5%
After weather (lt rain, 47 degrees) adjust: 78.5%
After passer accuracy (87.9) adjust: 117.9%
Pressure adjust: 0, QB execution counters 0, total adjust 0
After pressure adjust: 117.9%
After strategy, tip adjust and OOB adjusts: 113.2%
Tipped rate: 1.3%
Defended rate: 2.0%
QB err rate: 0.4%
Dist adjustment: 2.8%
No passer power adjust (82.4 power vs 24.5 yards)
After distance adjustment: (24 yards): 110.4%
Intercept adjust due to distance: +0.3%
Interception rate: 0.3%
Short rate: 1.4%, wide rate: 3.4%
Short int rate: 0.3%, wide int rate: 1.1%
Drop rate: 7.4%, wet drop rate: 2.1%
After drop rate (final completion rate): 85.5%
Great catch rate: 1.9%
Great catch to avoid Int rate: 0.2%
Defender is Calvin Elliott
Offensive plan is PassLongSL from strategy O-2l
Defensive plan is CoverRunBal from strategy D-2l
Timelog (clock was stopped, time strategy Normal): 0 seconds off clock for: Huddle, clock is running
O-line (P,L,M,R,X), 895, 718, 972, 1000, 739
D-line (P,L,M,R), 514, 368, 317, 355
Total sack rate: 0.4%
Checkdown rate: 19.4%
So in this case the defense was way overmatched; a completion was just about certain (either to the main target (66.1%) or a checkdown target (19.4%)); unfortunately, the dice came up wrong, hitting the 7.4% drop rate.
The intercept rate here looks low, I need to check that out. The defender was safety [url=http://footballbeta.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=169534]Calvin Elliot[/url] who has great pass coverage but lousy catching skills. The target was [url=http://footballbeta.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=172675]Kevin McMillian[/url] who has good catching but average hands.
Much of the math on drops is based on http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2010/offensive-drop-rate . In that article, a 6.2% drop rate is referred to as "respectable" so his 7.4% drop calculation on 52 Hands doesn't seem horribly out of whack.
Now this is only the first drop; it happened so quickly into the game that the players were all relatively fresh. His drop rate would no doubt climb as he got more tired, and perhaps I am not taking that into account properly. Last time I did an analysis of drops, we determined that they were high and I reduced them by the amount they were high, but the sim suffers heavily from "butterfly effect" where making an adjustment in one place can throw off balance somewhere else so I'm not adverse to analyzing it again.
--Chris
redcped
Alas, I'm not a single guy and I can't afford a vacation, but it does sound lovely. Can't watch Youtube at work, but I'll try to check it out later.
Did you move there for business, or just wanted to live there?
November 01, 2011 at 08:12PM View BBCode
Originally posted by RichNYC1
Ive been here for about 4 years, its paradise. I live in Medellin, the city of eternal spring where every day is 72 degrees. It rains for an hour, its beautiful for 3-4 hours and than it rains again. Kinda like my BPFL games ;). Ive lived in some cool places around the world, but this takes the cake.
Come on down! Its truely the best place in the world for a single guy to vaca. But be careful, they say the only risk (besides the incredibly hot women) is wanting to stay.... and it really is true.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qzZe0gcc0eY
Alas, I'm not a single guy and I can't afford a vacation, but it does sound lovely. Can't watch Youtube at work, but I'll try to check it out later.
Did you move there for business, or just wanted to live there?
RichNYC1
I know how bad things are up there, but business here is great, 5% growth year over year and the cost of living is insanely low. Colombia has been rated in the top 3 happiest places to live for the last few years and the people are amazingly nice. I can?t ever imagine going back to the US
November 01, 2011 at 09:13PM View BBCode
Long story, I had never been here because of the reputation, but I had a lot of experience in Latin America and have lived in Europe, Africa and the Caribbean. Anyway I was sold the first time and went back to NY, put my company up for sale and started a new one here.I know how bad things are up there, but business here is great, 5% growth year over year and the cost of living is insanely low. Colombia has been rated in the top 3 happiest places to live for the last few years and the people are amazingly nice. I can?t ever imagine going back to the US
RichNYC1
I am looking at the game. Here is the pass calculation for the first drop by your team:
+0:35.185: 7485.1 Q1/14:17(857), NYA 1/10.0: Pass calculation:
Base completion rate: 80.5%
After weather (lt rain, 47 degrees) adjust: 78.5%
After passer accuracy (87.9) adjust: 117.9%
Pressure adjust: 0, QB execution counters 0, total adjust 0
After pressure adjust: 117.9%
After strategy, tip adjust and OOB adjusts: 113.2%
Tipped rate: 1.3%
Defended rate: 2.0%
QB err rate: 0.4%
Dist adjustment: 2.8%
No passer power adjust (82.4 power vs 24.5 yards)
After distance adjustment: (24 yards): 110.4%
Intercept adjust due to distance: +0.3%
Interception rate: 0.3%
Short rate: 1.4%, wide rate: 3.4%
Short int rate: 0.3%, wide int rate: 1.1%
Drop rate: 7.4%, wet drop rate: 2.1%
After drop rate (final completion rate): 85.5%
Great catch rate: 1.9%
Great catch to avoid Int rate: 0.2%
Defender is Calvin Elliott
Offensive plan is PassLongSL from strategy O-2l
Defensive plan is CoverRunBal from strategy D-2l
Timelog (clock was stopped, time strategy Normal): 0 seconds off clock for: Huddle, clock is running
O-line (P,L,M,R,X), 895, 718, 972, 1000, 739
D-line (P,L,M,R), 514, 368, 317, 355
Total sack rate: 0.4%
Checkdown rate: 19.4%
So in this case the defense was way overmatched; a completion was just about certain (either to the main target (66.1%) or a checkdown target (19.4%)); unfortunately, the dice came up wrong, hitting the 7.4% drop rate.
The intercept rate here looks low, I need to check that out. The defender was safety [url=http://footballbeta.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=169534]Calvin Elliot[/url] who has great pass coverage but lousy catching skills. The target was [url=http://footballbeta.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=172675]Kevin McMillian[/url] who has good catching but average hands.
Much of the math on drops is based on http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2010/offensive-drop-rate . In that article, a 6.2% drop rate is referred to as "respectable" so his 7.4% drop calculation on 52 Hands doesn't seem horribly out of whack.
Now this is only the first drop; it happened so quickly into the game that the players were all relatively fresh. His drop rate would no doubt climb as he got more tired, and perhaps I am not taking that into account properly. Last time I did an analysis of drops, we determined that they were high and I reduced them by the amount they were high, but the sim suffers heavily from "butterfly effect" where making an adjustment in one place can throw off balance somewhere else so I'm not adverse to analyzing it again.
--Chris [/quote]
A drop here a drop there.. but itīs crazy. The guy you should look at is
[url=http://footballbeta.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=167923]Richie Locklin[/url]
Heīs dropping passes at a crazy rate. In fact, in the game against Philly, I had 3 consecutive drops on the last drive, 2 by Locklin and one by the other guy. 3 in a row? Thatīs some bad luck..
November 01, 2011 at 09:35PM View formatted
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[quote][i]Originally posted by Admin[/i]
I am looking at the game. Here is the pass calculation for the first drop by your team:
+0:35.185: 7485.1 Q1/14:17(857), NYA 1/10.0: Pass calculation:
Base completion rate: 80.5%
After weather (lt rain, 47 degrees) adjust: 78.5%
After passer accuracy (87.9) adjust: 117.9%
Pressure adjust: 0, QB execution counters 0, total adjust 0
After pressure adjust: 117.9%
After strategy, tip adjust and OOB adjusts: 113.2%
Tipped rate: 1.3%
Defended rate: 2.0%
QB err rate: 0.4%
Dist adjustment: 2.8%
No passer power adjust (82.4 power vs 24.5 yards)
After distance adjustment: (24 yards): 110.4%
Intercept adjust due to distance: +0.3%
Interception rate: 0.3%
Short rate: 1.4%, wide rate: 3.4%
Short int rate: 0.3%, wide int rate: 1.1%
Drop rate: 7.4%, wet drop rate: 2.1%
After drop rate (final completion rate): 85.5%
Great catch rate: 1.9%
Great catch to avoid Int rate: 0.2%
Defender is Calvin Elliott
Offensive plan is PassLongSL from strategy O-2l
Defensive plan is CoverRunBal from strategy D-2l
Timelog (clock was stopped, time strategy Normal): 0 seconds off clock for: Huddle, clock is running
O-line (P,L,M,R,X), 895, 718, 972, 1000, 739
D-line (P,L,M,R), 514, 368, 317, 355
Total sack rate: 0.4%
Checkdown rate: 19.4%
So in this case the defense was way overmatched; a completion was just about certain (either to the main target (66.1%) or a checkdown target (19.4%)); unfortunately, the dice came up wrong, hitting the 7.4% drop rate.
The intercept rate here looks low, I need to check that out. The defender was safety [url=http://footballbeta.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=169534]Calvin Elliot[/url] who has great pass coverage but lousy catching skills. The target was [url=http://footballbeta.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=172675]Kevin McMillian[/url] who has good catching but average hands.
Much of the math on drops is based on http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stat-analysis/2010/offensive-drop-rate . In that article, a 6.2% drop rate is referred to as "respectable" so his 7.4% drop calculation on 52 Hands doesn't seem horribly out of whack.
Now this is only the first drop; it happened so quickly into the game that the players were all relatively fresh. His drop rate would no doubt climb as he got more tired, and perhaps I am not taking that into account properly. Last time I did an analysis of drops, we determined that they were high and I reduced them by the amount they were high, but the sim suffers heavily from "butterfly effect" where making an adjustment in one place can throw off balance somewhere else so I'm not adverse to analyzing it again.
--Chris [/quote]
A drop here a drop there.. but itīs crazy. The guy you should look at is
[url=http://footballbeta.simdynasty.com/player.jsp?id=167923]Richie Locklin[/url]
Heīs dropping passes at a crazy rate. In fact, in the game against Philly, I had 3 consecutive drops on the last drive, 2 by Locklin and one by the other guy. 3 in a row? Thatīs some bad luck..
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