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RichNYC1
MY TE, is a 99 CTCH, do you think heīd ever hold on to one an 3rd down? I would like to see a stat on Drops, but I think itīs safe to say they are very high. You want to throw one every once in a while, OK, it happens. I but it doesn?t happen 8-10 times a game, on each side
MY QB is a 93 THRA - He throws more "wide" than he completes. This one may be on me because I like to vertically and I see other QBs with higher Comp %īs. Of course my guy seems to do it a lot on short passes too. Anyone else seeing this?
Ruled out of Bounds... I would be willing to bet this happens in SD 10X more than in the NFL. Save me the aggravation and just tell me the pass was "wide" and move on. That I could believe.
We have seen 20 INTs for TDīs and 182 TD Passes. Thatīs more than 1 in 10. I haven?t looked at the NFL numbers but Iīd be willing to bet that if those were the NFL numbers teams would be running the WingT because thatīs just unacceptable
Drops, Wide Passes, Ruled Out of Bounds
August 12, 2011 at 04:09PM View BBCode
Yea, this is a lot a fun...MY TE, is a 99 CTCH, do you think heīd ever hold on to one an 3rd down? I would like to see a stat on Drops, but I think itīs safe to say they are very high. You want to throw one every once in a while, OK, it happens. I but it doesn?t happen 8-10 times a game, on each side
MY QB is a 93 THRA - He throws more "wide" than he completes. This one may be on me because I like to vertically and I see other QBs with higher Comp %īs. Of course my guy seems to do it a lot on short passes too. Anyone else seeing this?
Ruled out of Bounds... I would be willing to bet this happens in SD 10X more than in the NFL. Save me the aggravation and just tell me the pass was "wide" and move on. That I could believe.
We have seen 20 INTs for TDīs and 182 TD Passes. Thatīs more than 1 in 10. I haven?t looked at the NFL numbers but Iīd be willing to bet that if those were the NFL numbers teams would be running the WingT because thatīs just unacceptable
Admin
Drops is based on Hands, not Catching. Adding it as a stat is a good idea, but I can actually pull up the stat retroactively by analyzing play-by-play data.
For reference on NFL stats, see http://sports.iwon.com/nfl/stats/passesdropped.html; on that page the worst player had 1 drop per game. Our worst player does have more than that. In fact, most receivers that have drops have an average of 1 drop per game when that should be the highest. So drops are indeed too high.
There were 411 drops last season in Gamma that were just flat out drops and 19 that were weather induced drops. That's 26.88 per team The NFL had 745 drops last season, or 23.28 per team. So we are about 15% high on drops.
Throwing wide is a function of both accuracy and pressure. If the QB is forced to throw by pressure he will throw wide more often. I'll have to think about how I can analyze this.
I'll take another look, this should be a function of how often a team goes to a sideline pass.
The NFL had 511 INTs in regular season 2010, of which 57 were returned for TD's. That's a rate of 11.15%. Our rate is 10.98%.
--Chris
[Edited on 8-12-2011 by Admin]
August 12, 2011 at 06:08PM View BBCode
Originally posted by RichNYC1
Yea, this is a lot a fun...
MY TE, is a 99 CTCH, do you think heīd ever hold on to one an 3rd down? I would like to see a stat on Drops, but I think itīs safe to say they are very high. You want to throw one every once in a while, OK, it happens. I but it doesn?t happen 8-10 times a game, on each side
Drops is based on Hands, not Catching. Adding it as a stat is a good idea, but I can actually pull up the stat retroactively by analyzing play-by-play data.
For reference on NFL stats, see http://sports.iwon.com/nfl/stats/passesdropped.html; on that page the worst player had 1 drop per game. Our worst player does have more than that. In fact, most receivers that have drops have an average of 1 drop per game when that should be the highest. So drops are indeed too high.
There were 411 drops last season in Gamma that were just flat out drops and 19 that were weather induced drops. That's 26.88 per team The NFL had 745 drops last season, or 23.28 per team. So we are about 15% high on drops.
MY QB is a 93 THRA - He throws more "wide" than he completes. This one may be on me because I like to vertically and I see other QBs with higher Comp %īs. Of course my guy seems to do it a lot on short passes too. Anyone else seeing this?
Throwing wide is a function of both accuracy and pressure. If the QB is forced to throw by pressure he will throw wide more often. I'll have to think about how I can analyze this.
Ruled out of Bounds... I would be willing to bet this happens in SD 10X more than in the NFL. Save me the aggravation and just tell me the pass was "wide" and move on. That I could believe.
I'll take another look, this should be a function of how often a team goes to a sideline pass.
We have seen 20 INTs for TDīs and 182 TD Passes. Thatīs more than 1 in 10. I haven?t looked at the NFL numbers but Iīd be willing to bet that if those were the NFL numbers teams would be running the WingT because thatīs just unacceptable
The NFL had 511 INTs in regular season 2010, of which 57 were returned for TD's. That's a rate of 11.15%. Our rate is 10.98%.
--Chris
[Edited on 8-12-2011 by Admin]
Admin
Sorry, just checked the code and it's both Hands and Catching. I'm going to reduce the drop rate 20% for non-weather-related drops.
--Chris
August 12, 2011 at 06:14PM View BBCode
Originally posted by Admin
Drops is based on Hands, not Catching.
Sorry, just checked the code and it's both Hands and Catching. I'm going to reduce the drop rate 20% for non-weather-related drops.
--Chris
skycoyote
August 12, 2011 at 06:16PM View BBCode
In my week 12 game, my QB (95 power, 83 acc) completed 18 of 34 attempts. All of the incompletes were simply "incomplete", no wide passes, no dropped passes and receivers out of bounds. I mostly pass up the middle, ie very few sideline passes, and mostly short and medium passes.
Admin
--Chris
August 12, 2011 at 06:23PM View BBCode
The "Catch out of bounds" rate in the code is 1.5% on non-sideline passes, 6.0% on sideline passes, and 0% on screens. I am going to reduce these to 0.5% and 4.0%.--Chris
redcped
Teams run sideline routes all the time, and there are always plays that look at whether both feet come down ... particularly on end zone plays, I think, where fade patterns are common.
So I'm going to assume that when I call for a medium pass, chances are now and then it will be a sideline route. And therefore, yes, there should be some that are ruled out of bounds.
I am not sure whether that needs to happen less frequently. Perhaps in the future we might want the PxP to indicate where the route went? At least on sideline plays, so you know that line might be coming that he was out of bounds?
August 12, 2011 at 06:29PM View formatted
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Is there a reason to run the sideline pass in SD outside of trying to conserve time?
Teams run sideline routes all the time, and there are always plays that look at whether both feet come down ... particularly on end zone plays, I think, where fade patterns are common.
So I'm going to assume that when I call for a medium pass, chances are now and then it will be a sideline route. And therefore, yes, there should be some that are ruled out of bounds.
I am not sure whether that needs to happen less frequently. Perhaps in the future we might want the PxP to indicate where the route went? At least on sideline plays, so you know that line might be coming that he was out of bounds?
Admin
--Chris
August 12, 2011 at 06:29PM View BBCode
Note on drops: Non-weather drops are based 50% on Catching and 50% on Hands. Weather-related dops are purely based on Hands. So if you are in a city prone to wet or cold weather bone up on receivers with great Hands.--Chris
redcped
Only 13 of the 25 WR with at least 70 in Hands are on anyone's roster. Perhaps the cold-weather teams will be looking at the WW now ...
August 12, 2011 at 06:33PM View BBCode
Originally posted by Admin
Note on drops: Non-weather drops are based 50% on Catching and 50% on Hands. Weather-related dops are purely based on Hands. So if you are in a city prone to wet or cold weather bone up on receivers with great Hands.
--Chris
Only 13 of the 25 WR with at least 70 in Hands are on anyone's roster. Perhaps the cold-weather teams will be looking at the WW now ...
Admin
No, that is the reason to specify one.
This is correct. Sideline passes are a subset of passes. As the game grows there will be more "subset" plays.
In the code, what we see in the strategy settings as a "play" is referred to as a "play tag". When individual plays are implemented, each play will have one or more "tags" associated with it. Tags also have a primary receiver associated with it (for each play), so let's say you had a play where X runs a long post and Z runs a quick out. That play might have the tags "long pass", "short pass" and "short sideline pass", and when it was selected as a long pass X would be the primary receiver and Z would be the backup, whereas on short and short sideline Z would be the primary receiver.
That is correct.
This is one of those things that will get better as I move away from percentages and more toward grid locations.
When individual plays are implemented, you'll see the movement of the ball laterally on the field, not just along the length of the field.
--Chris
August 12, 2011 at 06:38PM View BBCode
Originally posted by redcped
Is there a reason to run the sideline pass in SD outside of trying to conserve time?
No, that is the reason to specify one.
Teams run sideline routes all the time, and there are always plays that look at whether both feet come down ... particularly on end zone plays, I think, where fade patterns are common.
This is correct. Sideline passes are a subset of passes. As the game grows there will be more "subset" plays.
In the code, what we see in the strategy settings as a "play" is referred to as a "play tag". When individual plays are implemented, each play will have one or more "tags" associated with it. Tags also have a primary receiver associated with it (for each play), so let's say you had a play where X runs a long post and Z runs a quick out. That play might have the tags "long pass", "short pass" and "short sideline pass", and when it was selected as a long pass X would be the primary receiver and Z would be the backup, whereas on short and short sideline Z would be the primary receiver.
So I'm going to assume that when I call for a medium pass, chances are now and then it will be a sideline route. And therefore, yes, there should be some that are ruled out of bounds.
That is correct.
I am not sure whether that needs to happen less frequently.
This is one of those things that will get better as I move away from percentages and more toward grid locations.
Perhaps in the future we might want the PxP to indicate where the route went? At least on sideline plays, so you know that line might be coming that he was out of bounds?
When individual plays are implemented, you'll see the movement of the ball laterally on the field, not just along the length of the field.
--Chris
Goldambre
So this is interesting information. I have been adding/increasing sideline pass frequency when facing a team with better MLB/ILB PCov. If I am reading Chris' reply correctly, there is no value to selecting the Sideline passes in that situation.
Am I understanding correctly?
August 12, 2011 at 07:11PM View BBCode
Originally posted by redcped
Is there a reason to run the sideline pass in SD outside of trying to conserve time?
Reply by Chris
No, that is the reason to specify one.
So this is interesting information. I have been adding/increasing sideline pass frequency when facing a team with better MLB/ILB PCov. If I am reading Chris' reply correctly, there is no value to selecting the Sideline passes in that situation.
Am I understanding correctly?
RichNYC1
The NFL had 511 INTs in regular season 2010, of which 57 were returned for TD's. That's a rate of 11.15%. Our rate is 10.98%.
--Chris
[Edited on 8-12-2011 by Admin]
My point here was not picks to picks returned for TDīs it was Picks returned for TDīs vs TD Pases.
Picks for TDīs are at 11% of TD Passes Thrown, not 11% Returned for TDīs
August 12, 2011 at 08:02PM View BBCode
Originally posted by Admin
We have seen 20 INTs for TDīs and 182 TD Passes. Thatīs more than 1 in 10. I haven?t looked at the NFL numbers but Iīd be willing to bet that if those were the NFL numbers teams would be running the WingT because thatīs just unacceptable
The NFL had 511 INTs in regular season 2010, of which 57 were returned for TD's. That's a rate of 11.15%. Our rate is 10.98%.
--Chris
[Edited on 8-12-2011 by Admin]
My point here was not picks to picks returned for TDīs it was Picks returned for TDīs vs TD Pases.
Picks for TDīs are at 11% of TD Passes Thrown, not 11% Returned for TDīs
redcped
Intuitively that makes great sense. What it is doing is putting more passes on the outside than would occur normally. Whether the sim is aware of how the skills of inside LB affect those routes, that I don't know.
August 12, 2011 at 08:13PM View BBCode
Originally posted by Goldambre
Originally posted by redcped
Is there a reason to run the sideline pass in SD outside of trying to conserve time?
Reply by Chris
No, that is the reason to specify one.
So this is interesting information. I have been adding/increasing sideline pass frequency when facing a team with better MLB/ILB PCov. If I am reading Chris' reply correctly, there is no value to selecting the Sideline passes in that situation.
Am I understanding correctly?
Intuitively that makes great sense. What it is doing is putting more passes on the outside than would occur normally. Whether the sim is aware of how the skills of inside LB affect those routes, that I don't know.
RichNYC1
The league leader Brandon Carr had 25 in 2011, D Revis had 31 in 2010. To make the top 15 league leaders you only needed 14 Passes Defensed and they throw a lot more than we do now, a lot. No team averaged less than 29 ATT per game (KC) and Gamma teams average 29.6. ATT per game. That means NFL is throwing hundreds of additional passes to get to those overall numbers.
I tracked my game with Houston today. We had a total (for both teams) of 10 drops, 10 tips (I didnt even count Passes Prevented) 4 INTs, 3 fumbles and 12 sacks (2 strip sacks). I did throw and blitz a lot but Houston didnt really blitz and threw a lot of short passes. Sacks were 7/5 and picks 2/2 (1 for a TD)
August 12, 2011 at 08:45PM View BBCode
One other thing. Passes tipped away, or Passes Defensed as the NFL calls them are are at an incredible level.The league leader Brandon Carr had 25 in 2011, D Revis had 31 in 2010. To make the top 15 league leaders you only needed 14 Passes Defensed and they throw a lot more than we do now, a lot. No team averaged less than 29 ATT per game (KC) and Gamma teams average 29.6. ATT per game. That means NFL is throwing hundreds of additional passes to get to those overall numbers.
I tracked my game with Houston today. We had a total (for both teams) of 10 drops, 10 tips (I didnt even count Passes Prevented) 4 INTs, 3 fumbles and 12 sacks (2 strip sacks). I did throw and blitz a lot but Houston didnt really blitz and threw a lot of short passes. Sacks were 7/5 and picks 2/2 (1 for a TD)
Admin
Actually, you will certainly see fewer matchups against the MLB/ILB in this case; on short passes if the CB isn't there an LB might be, and on sideline passes you're mayched up against an OLB.
--Chris
August 13, 2011 at 12:54AM View BBCode
Originally posted by Goldambre
Originally posted by redcped
Is there a reason to run the sideline pass in SD outside of trying to conserve time?
Reply by Chris
No, that is the reason to specify one.
So this is interesting information. I have been adding/increasing sideline pass frequency when facing a team with better MLB/ILB PCov. If I am reading Chris' reply correctly, there is no value to selecting the Sideline passes in that situation.
Am I understanding correctly?
Actually, you will certainly see fewer matchups against the MLB/ILB in this case; on short passes if the CB isn't there an LB might be, and on sideline passes you're mayched up against an OLB.
--Chris
redcped
August 13, 2011 at 01:07AM View BBCode
Why are OLB matching up against WR on sideline routes? What are the CB doing?
Admin
--Chris
August 13, 2011 at 01:24AM View BBCode
If the CB isn't there, such as on a corner blitz or if the WR has evaded the CB, or possibly in a zone defense.--Chris
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