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tworoosters
Seriously this issue has to be looked at, there are nowhere near enogh TDs scored in this sim as it currently stands.
The touchdown thing, again
August 11, 2011 at 12:47AM View formatted
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[url=http://footballbeta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp?boxscoreid=4029&thid=398]San Diego 16 Washington 13[/url], 891 yards of net offense and two touchdowns scored.
Seriously this issue has to be looked at, there are nowhere near enogh TDs scored in this sim as it currently stands.
cowboymatt43
August 11, 2011 at 01:07AM View BBCode
The average score for a team in 2010 in the NFL was 22 points. How close are we to that?
cowboymatt43
Is that difference liveable? I think it might be...what do others think?
August 11, 2011 at 01:39AM View BBCode
I just did the math: As of the end of the fourth quarter in week 8 the average Gamma League Team scores 17.89 points again. That number will go up slightly when the Calgary/NY game is completed, but that is a good 4 points lower than the NFL average in 2010.Is that difference liveable? I think it might be...what do others think?
blakjakshalak
August 11, 2011 at 02:26AM View BBCode
I think that the sim is playing more realisticly right now. I thought it was too easy to score. Defense always seemed to be more luck than the result of any plan I put in place. The defense is making plays now and it's forcing owners to scheme more on offense in order to move the ball. Scoring should be hard to do.....that's football!
redcped
Let's monitor it closely, and let's see what happens when players get better. We're going to have some really impressive units out there.
August 11, 2011 at 03:32AM View BBCode
I think until we have seen how talent inflation develops in this league over several seasons, it's premature to suggest changes.Let's monitor it closely, and let's see what happens when players get better. We're going to have some really impressive units out there.
tworoosters
I also don't see what talent inflation will accomplish, unless offensive talent inflates more than defensive.
August 11, 2011 at 04:26AM View BBCode
The lack of touchdowns isn't a new issue, the sim has never created as many TDs as the NFL as many of my other posts in this forum can attest.I also don't see what talent inflation will accomplish, unless offensive talent inflates more than defensive.
tworoosters
The average isn't as much an issue as the fact that only 4 of 16 SIM team are averaging 22 points per game.
August 11, 2011 at 04:29AM View BBCode
Originally posted by cowboymatt43
I just did the math: As of the end of the fourth quarter in week 8 the average Gamma League Team scores 17.89 points again.
The average isn't as much an issue as the fact that only 4 of 16 SIM team are averaging 22 points per game.
Goldambre
I am not seeing a significant increase in defense 'making plays'. To me, defense seems to be less of a factor than it should be.
August 11, 2011 at 05:44AM View BBCode
Originally posted by blakjakshalak
The defense is making plays now and it's forcing owners to scheme more on offense in order to move the ball. Scoring should be hard to do.....that's football!
I am not seeing a significant increase in defense 'making plays'. To me, defense seems to be less of a factor than it should be.
cowboymatt43
1960: 17.87 points per game average.
1961: 17.91 points per game average.
You have to hand it to FABE -- he's consistent!
Here are the numbers from the NFL:
1960: 21.6
1961: 21.5
1962: 22.3
1963: 22.0
1964: 22.0
1965: 23.1
1966: 21.7
1967: 21.8
1968: 20.5
1969: 20.9
1970: 19.3
1971: 19.4
1972: 20.3
1973: 19.5
1974: 18.2
1975: 20.6
1976: 19.2
1977: 17.2
1978: 18.3
1979: 20.1
1980: 20.5
1981: 20.7
1982: 20.2
1983: 21.8
1984: 21.2
1985: 21.5
1986: 20.5
1987: 21.6
1988: 20.3
1989: 20.6
1990: 20.1
1991: 19.0
1992: 18.7
1993: 18.7
1994: 20.3
1995: 21.5
1996: 20.4
1997: 20.7
1998: 21.3
1999: 20.8
2000: 20.7
2001: 20.2
2002: 21.7
2003: 20.8
2004: 21.5
2005: 20.6
2006: 20.7
2007: 21.7
2008: 22.0
2009: 21.5
2010: 22.0
So it seems rather clear that we are on the lower end of the scoring range in the NFL, with only 1977 presenting an average score lower than ours.
[Edited on 8-14-2011 by cowboymatt43]
August 11, 2011 at 11:34AM View BBCode
I fixed my numbers from this year now that all the week 8 games are completed and I averaged last year's scores as well:1960: 17.87 points per game average.
1961: 17.91 points per game average.
You have to hand it to FABE -- he's consistent!
Here are the numbers from the NFL:
1960: 21.6
1961: 21.5
1962: 22.3
1963: 22.0
1964: 22.0
1965: 23.1
1966: 21.7
1967: 21.8
1968: 20.5
1969: 20.9
1970: 19.3
1971: 19.4
1972: 20.3
1973: 19.5
1974: 18.2
1975: 20.6
1976: 19.2
1977: 17.2
1978: 18.3
1979: 20.1
1980: 20.5
1981: 20.7
1982: 20.2
1983: 21.8
1984: 21.2
1985: 21.5
1986: 20.5
1987: 21.6
1988: 20.3
1989: 20.6
1990: 20.1
1991: 19.0
1992: 18.7
1993: 18.7
1994: 20.3
1995: 21.5
1996: 20.4
1997: 20.7
1998: 21.3
1999: 20.8
2000: 20.7
2001: 20.2
2002: 21.7
2003: 20.8
2004: 21.5
2005: 20.6
2006: 20.7
2007: 21.7
2008: 22.0
2009: 21.5
2010: 22.0
So it seems rather clear that we are on the lower end of the scoring range in the NFL, with only 1977 presenting an average score lower than ours.
[Edited on 8-14-2011 by cowboymatt43]
cowboymatt43
In other words, we are, statistically speaking, significantly below the average NFL score.
August 11, 2011 at 11:44AM View BBCode
All of that information in my last post comes to this: right now a given team in Gamma is scoring, on average, 2.33 standard deviations fewer points than and NFL team, on average. (This was found by finding the standard deviation of the NFL average scores from 1960-2010; the mean score was 20.65 and the standard deviation was 1.18.)In other words, we are, statistically speaking, significantly below the average NFL score.
redcped
In 8 games, we've had 1 KR and 1 PR for TDs. All of last season we had 1 combined.
I would imagine there are more return TDs than that in the NFL on average, right?
Would those going up to proper levels be enough to make a difference?
August 11, 2011 at 02:16PM View BBCode
Let's look at one other element: Returns.In 8 games, we've had 1 KR and 1 PR for TDs. All of last season we had 1 combined.
I would imagine there are more return TDs than that in the NFL on average, right?
Would those going up to proper levels be enough to make a difference?
RichNYC1
TD Pass 121- INTīs 112
487 Passes 20-40 yards - Comp % 44.8
37 Passes 40+ yards - Comp % 18.9 (wow thats bad)
I do think part of this is that we as a group have become gun shy and that will change over time.
I also think that we are all very even in terms of talant and that untill some seperation occurs and we see skill players who are truely great (Manning/Brady or Rice/Moss types, overall 95 rating players) its going to be hard to throw it around deep. I do think when that evolution occurs weīll be able to do it. If thats true, than I think its likely the settings we are working with now could very well be correct for the long term.
August 11, 2011 at 03:30PM View BBCode
I agree that scoring is too low, I also think INTīs are still too high. Some other numbers that dont look right to me are;TD Pass 121- INTīs 112
487 Passes 20-40 yards - Comp % 44.8
37 Passes 40+ yards - Comp % 18.9 (wow thats bad)
I do think part of this is that we as a group have become gun shy and that will change over time.
I also think that we are all very even in terms of talant and that untill some seperation occurs and we see skill players who are truely great (Manning/Brady or Rice/Moss types, overall 95 rating players) its going to be hard to throw it around deep. I do think when that evolution occurs weīll be able to do it. If thats true, than I think its likely the settings we are working with now could very well be correct for the long term.
RichNYC1
The 2 min offense needs to either have greater intelligence or additional settings.
You need to have some runs in that offense, but they should be NOT used as the clock is running out and the offense is out of time-outs. Maybe we need a 2 Min Offense w/ No Time-Outs Setting that will know I dont want to run from the opponents 30 yard line with no times outs and 25 seconds to play. That happens way too often.
August 11, 2011 at 03:43PM View BBCode
I do see one other thing that I think could be adjusted.The 2 min offense needs to either have greater intelligence or additional settings.
You need to have some runs in that offense, but they should be NOT used as the clock is running out and the offense is out of time-outs. Maybe we need a 2 Min Offense w/ No Time-Outs Setting that will know I dont want to run from the opponents 30 yard line with no times outs and 25 seconds to play. That happens way too often.
Admin
Interesting... rather than adding a whole separate 2-minute offense page I could theoretically just add a second "run more/pass more" slider for "no time-outs". Hmm.
--Chris
August 11, 2011 at 05:11PM View BBCode
Originally posted by RichNYC1
I do see one other thing that I think could be adjusted.
The 2 min offense needs to either have greater intelligence or additional settings.
You need to have some runs in that offense, but they should be NOT used as the clock is running out and the offense is out of time-outs. Maybe we need a 2 Min Offense w/ No Time-Outs Setting that will know I dont want to run from the opponents 30 yard line with no times outs and 25 seconds to play. That happens way too often.
Interesting... rather than adding a whole separate 2-minute offense page I could theoretically just add a second "run more/pass more" slider for "no time-outs". Hmm.
--Chris
Admin
I completely agree that is an issue, I don't want you to feel like I have been ignoring it... it's one of my top concerns after getting the multi-season leagues going.
--Chris
August 11, 2011 at 05:12PM View BBCode
Originally posted by tworoosters
[url=http://footballbeta.simdynasty.com/boxscore.jsp?boxscoreid=4029&thid=398]San Diego 16 Washington 13[/url], 891 yards of net offense and two touchdowns scored.
Seriously this issue has to be looked at, there are nowhere near enogh TDs scored in this sim as it currently stands.
I completely agree that is an issue, I don't want you to feel like I have been ignoring it... it's one of my top concerns after getting the multi-season leagues going.
--Chris
Admin
Remember that 40+ yards here refers specifically to the length the ball travels in the air, NOT 40+ yard plays. So if the guy catches the ball 30 yards downfield and gets 15 yards after the catch, that counts in the 20-40 yards column, not in the 40+ yards column. To count as 40+ yards, it has to be 40 or more yards from where the QB's feet were at the time the ball left his hand to where the targeted receiver's feet were at the time he made (or failed to make) the catch. So a 41 yard attempt that falls short and is intercepted 39 yards from the QB still counts as a missed 40+ yard attempt.
I think part of the reason we are seeing these passes having such low completion numbers is a tendency for people to draft QB's purely based on Accuracy and not looking at Throw Power. QB's with high Throw Power should be completing more of these 40+ yard passes.
--Chris
August 11, 2011 at 05:18PM View BBCode
Originally posted by RichNYC1
I agree that scoring is too low, I also think INTīs are still too high. Some other numbers that dont look right to me are;
TD Pass 121- INTīs 112
487 Passes 20-40 yards - Comp % 44.8
37 Passes 40+ yards - Comp % 18.9 (wow thats bad)
Remember that 40+ yards here refers specifically to the length the ball travels in the air, NOT 40+ yard plays. So if the guy catches the ball 30 yards downfield and gets 15 yards after the catch, that counts in the 20-40 yards column, not in the 40+ yards column. To count as 40+ yards, it has to be 40 or more yards from where the QB's feet were at the time the ball left his hand to where the targeted receiver's feet were at the time he made (or failed to make) the catch. So a 41 yard attempt that falls short and is intercepted 39 yards from the QB still counts as a missed 40+ yard attempt.
I think part of the reason we are seeing these passes having such low completion numbers is a tendency for people to draft QB's purely based on Accuracy and not looking at Throw Power. QB's with high Throw Power should be completing more of these 40+ yard passes.
--Chris
Admin
90-100: 764-2048 (37.3%)
80-89.9: 901-2791 (32.3%)
70-79.9: 540-2008 (26.9%)
60-69.9: 222-939 (23.6%)
50-59.9: 44-215 (20.5%)
40-49.9: 3-11 (27.3%) (Small sample size)
None of these are as low as the Gamma numbers, which implies that the Gamma numbers are suffering from both a small sample size and a really talent-poor initial draft (really, I should have regenerated the draft class when we saw how slim the pickings were).
For comparison the average throw power of a QB on an active roster on the production site is 76.5. In Gamma it's 73.8. For comparison the average throw power of a QB on an active roster on the production site is 76.5.
The changes I made to QB rating may actually hurt long pass numbers because for teams that don't have a QB depth chart set they are more likely to start a higher accuracy QB over a higher power QB now.
--Chris
August 11, 2011 at 05:45PM View BBCode
Here's all the data for 40+ yard passes from the live game (all leagues) broken down by throw power:90-100: 764-2048 (37.3%)
80-89.9: 901-2791 (32.3%)
70-79.9: 540-2008 (26.9%)
60-69.9: 222-939 (23.6%)
50-59.9: 44-215 (20.5%)
40-49.9: 3-11 (27.3%) (Small sample size)
None of these are as low as the Gamma numbers, which implies that the Gamma numbers are suffering from both a small sample size and a really talent-poor initial draft (really, I should have regenerated the draft class when we saw how slim the pickings were).
For comparison the average throw power of a QB on an active roster on the production site is 76.5. In Gamma it's 73.8. For comparison the average throw power of a QB on an active roster on the production site is 76.5.
The changes I made to QB rating may actually hurt long pass numbers because for teams that don't have a QB depth chart set they are more likely to start a higher accuracy QB over a higher power QB now.
--Chris
Admin
[Edited on 8-11-2011 by Admin]
August 11, 2011 at 05:48PM View BBCode
(Note on "talent": That may not be the issue as much as I think; the average QB in Gamma has 2 points higher Accuracy than the average in production, and the average Gamma receiver is 3 points higher in Catching. Hmm.)[Edited on 8-11-2011 by Admin]
RichNYC1
I may not have explained myself correctly. I was trying to say we are not throwing long because we are gun shy from the increased INTīs and low sucess rates. But 18% completion percentage will do that. As for the long balls, I understand what youre saying, but the number of 20+ yard throws are really low too.
As for the talent comment. Not every QB can make the long throws in the NFL and the few guys that can really raise the average because they do it a lot. My QB is rated 76, the top guy is 83. I cant speak for all the QBīs in the league, but honestly, my guy sucks. He is horrible and when heīs not throwing incompletions heīs being strip sacked or throwing picks for TDīs. Based on the other guyīs ratings, I cant believe they are much better than my guy. But once we start to see some 90 overall rated players I think that might change
August 11, 2011 at 08:38PM View BBCode
Originally posted by Admin
Here's all the data for 40+ yard passes from the live game (all leagues) broken down by throw power:
90-100: 764-2048 (37.3%)
80-89.9: 901-2791 (32.3%)
70-79.9: 540-2008 (26.9%)
60-69.9: 222-939 (23.6%)
50-59.9: 44-215 (20.5%)
40-49.9: 3-11 (27.3%) (Small sample size)
None of these are as low as the Gamma numbers, which implies that the Gamma numbers are suffering from both a small sample size and a really talent-poor initial draft (really, I should have regenerated the draft class when we saw how slim the pickings were).
For comparison the average throw power of a QB on an active roster on the production site is 76.5. In Gamma it's 73.8. For comparison the average throw power of a QB on an active roster on the production site is 76.5.
The changes I made to QB rating may actually hurt long pass numbers because for teams that don't have a QB depth chart set they are more likely to start a higher accuracy QB over a higher power QB now.
--Chris
I may not have explained myself correctly. I was trying to say we are not throwing long because we are gun shy from the increased INTīs and low sucess rates. But 18% completion percentage will do that. As for the long balls, I understand what youre saying, but the number of 20+ yard throws are really low too.
As for the talent comment. Not every QB can make the long throws in the NFL and the few guys that can really raise the average because they do it a lot. My QB is rated 76, the top guy is 83. I cant speak for all the QBīs in the league, but honestly, my guy sucks. He is horrible and when heīs not throwing incompletions heīs being strip sacked or throwing picks for TDīs. Based on the other guyīs ratings, I cant believe they are much better than my guy. But once we start to see some 90 overall rated players I think that might change
cowboymatt43
1960 -- 19.87
1961 -- 18.46
We're still a little low...but we are on the right track. Twice in NFL history has the league average fewer points per team per game. So we're on the low end but we're at least within the range of the real scoring averages.
August 14, 2011 at 04:08AM View BBCode
Here's an update on scoring in Gamma:1960 -- 19.87
1961 -- 18.46
We're still a little low...but we are on the right track. Twice in NFL history has the league average fewer points per team per game. So we're on the low end but we're at least within the range of the real scoring averages.
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