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cowboymatt43
Turns out they are both kind of right. According to [url=http://thebiglead.com/index.php/2011/04/22/nfl-career-length-and-average-age-versus-average-life-expectancy/]this very helpful analysis[/url], the terminology is a bit mixed up. The NFLPA was citing the average experience of a current NFL player, which is roughly 3.5 years, and the commish was citing that "life expectancy" of a current NFL player is 6 years. What this means is that NFL owners have found that some time between year 5 and year 7 a players value is no longer worth what he is being paid and the owner will go for a younger player. Thus, it seems that the average NFL player should start seeing diminishing skills at around age 26. I imagine that for some positions these declines are more pronounced (CB, WR, RB) and less so at others (QB, OL, DL).
I'm crunching some NFL age by position numbers right now and I'll post the results later.
Aging in the NFL
August 03, 2011 at 04:34PM View BBCode
During the labor negotiations the NFLPA said that the average NFL career is just over three years and the Commissioner said that it's closer to 6. This has some importance for us since we are interested in when to start having major declines hit players in our leagues. So, who was right? The NFLPA or the commish?Turns out they are both kind of right. According to [url=http://thebiglead.com/index.php/2011/04/22/nfl-career-length-and-average-age-versus-average-life-expectancy/]this very helpful analysis[/url], the terminology is a bit mixed up. The NFLPA was citing the average experience of a current NFL player, which is roughly 3.5 years, and the commish was citing that "life expectancy" of a current NFL player is 6 years. What this means is that NFL owners have found that some time between year 5 and year 7 a players value is no longer worth what he is being paid and the owner will go for a younger player. Thus, it seems that the average NFL player should start seeing diminishing skills at around age 26. I imagine that for some positions these declines are more pronounced (CB, WR, RB) and less so at others (QB, OL, DL).
I'm crunching some NFL age by position numbers right now and I'll post the results later.
cowboymatt43
Here's the first one: the average age of an NFL player in 2010 was 26.68. That's a bit older than I thought it would be!
Here's the second one and it's just a interesting factoid: In 2010 1945 players were on team rosters at some point. That's insane!
Coming up I'll post age numbers based on player position...
{{{Pro-Football-Reference.com had LB Reggie Walker listed at 110 years old! I fixed that and the average age droped by 4 hundredths! And I just found another guy that somehow found his way onto the Colts roster even though he would be 118 years old if he were still alive! Taking him off reduced the average age a bit more.}}}
[Edited on 8-3-2011 by cowboymatt43]
[Edited on 8-3-2011 by cowboymatt43]
August 03, 2011 at 05:36PM View BBCode
I just got all the roster data from Pro-Football-Reference.com and slapped it into a spreadsheet. Specifically I nabbed player names (so that I could eliminated duplicates [guys that were on more than one team in 2010], ages, and positions. I'll post my findings as I, well, find them.Here's the first one: the average age of an NFL player in 2010 was 26.68. That's a bit older than I thought it would be!
Here's the second one and it's just a interesting factoid: In 2010 1945 players were on team rosters at some point. That's insane!
Coming up I'll post age numbers based on player position...
{{{Pro-Football-Reference.com had LB Reggie Walker listed at 110 years old! I fixed that and the average age droped by 4 hundredths! And I just found another guy that somehow found his way onto the Colts roster even though he would be 118 years old if he were still alive! Taking him off reduced the average age a bit more.}}}
[Edited on 8-3-2011 by cowboymatt43]
[Edited on 8-3-2011 by cowboymatt43]
Hamilton2
August 03, 2011 at 05:45PM View BBCode
The average college draftee is 23, so a 3.5 year career, with certain longer ones, will of course raise the average to between 26 and 27. That's just about what I had expected from this data.
tworoosters
The average length of an NFL "starter" is much more than 3 years, and I would wager longer than six on average as well.
August 03, 2011 at 05:52PM View BBCode
The "average length" data is brutally skewed by the guys that have one year, or less, careers as it is in all sports.The average length of an NFL "starter" is much more than 3 years, and I would wager longer than six on average as well.
cowboymatt43
Here are the age breakdowns in number per age and percentage of the centers who were that certain age:
21 -- 1 -- 1.20%
22 -- 1 -- 1.20%
23 -- 7 -- 8.43%
24 -- 14 -- 16.87%
25 -- 7 -- 8.43%
26 -- 6 -- 7.22%
27 -- 5 -- 6.02%
28 -- 8 -- 9.63%
29 -- 7 -- 8.43%
30 -- 2 -- 2.41%
31 -- 3 -- 3.61%
32 -- 4 -- 4.82%
33 -- 11 -- 13.25%
34 -- 3 -- 3.61%
35 -- 1 -- 1.20%
36 -- 0 -- 0.00%
37 -- 1 -- 1.20%
38 -- 1 -- 1.20%
39 -- 1 -- 1.20%
It's odd that there were so many 33 year old centers...but what does seem to be the case here is that the centers in the NFL are pretty evenly distributed from 23-29 with a significant amount of players playing until 34. Perhaps, then, this data is saying something about center over 29 beginning to decline and centers over 34 declining sharply.
[Edited on 8-3-2011 by cowboymatt43]
[Edited on 8-3-2011 by cowboymatt43]
August 03, 2011 at 05:54PM View BBCode
There were 83 centers listed on NFL team rosters and their average age was 28.05.Here are the age breakdowns in number per age and percentage of the centers who were that certain age:
21 -- 1 -- 1.20%
22 -- 1 -- 1.20%
23 -- 7 -- 8.43%
24 -- 14 -- 16.87%
25 -- 7 -- 8.43%
26 -- 6 -- 7.22%
27 -- 5 -- 6.02%
28 -- 8 -- 9.63%
29 -- 7 -- 8.43%
30 -- 2 -- 2.41%
31 -- 3 -- 3.61%
32 -- 4 -- 4.82%
33 -- 11 -- 13.25%
34 -- 3 -- 3.61%
35 -- 1 -- 1.20%
36 -- 0 -- 0.00%
37 -- 1 -- 1.20%
38 -- 1 -- 1.20%
39 -- 1 -- 1.20%
It's odd that there were so many 33 year old centers...but what does seem to be the case here is that the centers in the NFL are pretty evenly distributed from 23-29 with a significant amount of players playing until 34. Perhaps, then, this data is saying something about center over 29 beginning to decline and centers over 34 declining sharply.
[Edited on 8-3-2011 by cowboymatt43]
[Edited on 8-3-2011 by cowboymatt43]
cowboymatt43
Here are the age breakdowns in number per age and percentage of the guards who were that certain age:
21 -- 0 -- 0.00%
22 -- 3 -- 2.44%
23 -- 9 -- 7.32%
24 -- 13 -- 10.57%
25 -- 10 -- 8.13%
26 -- 8 -- 6.50%
27 -- 13 -- 10.57%
28 -- 13 -- 10.57%
29 -- 12 -- 9.77%
30 -- 12 -- 9.77%
31 -- 6 -- 4.88%
32 -- 6 -- 4.88%
33 -- 11 -- 8.94%
34 -- 4 -- 3.25%
35 -- 1 -- 0.81%
36 -- 1 -- 0.81%
37 -- 0 -- 0.00%
38 -- 0 -- 0.00%
39 -- 1 -- 0.81%
The guards seem to be fairly evenly distributed all the way through age 33 (though some of those 33 year olds are the same ones from the center list due to being listed at multiple positions...I'll have to do a OL crunch too). It appears that there's a sharp drop off after 33, thus, perhaps the first set of declines would happen before 33, say 30 or 31, and then very sharp declines over 34.
[Edited on 8-3-2011 by cowboymatt43]
August 03, 2011 at 06:12PM View BBCode
There were 123 guards listed on NFL team rosters and their average age was 28.07.Here are the age breakdowns in number per age and percentage of the guards who were that certain age:
21 -- 0 -- 0.00%
22 -- 3 -- 2.44%
23 -- 9 -- 7.32%
24 -- 13 -- 10.57%
25 -- 10 -- 8.13%
26 -- 8 -- 6.50%
27 -- 13 -- 10.57%
28 -- 13 -- 10.57%
29 -- 12 -- 9.77%
30 -- 12 -- 9.77%
31 -- 6 -- 4.88%
32 -- 6 -- 4.88%
33 -- 11 -- 8.94%
34 -- 4 -- 3.25%
35 -- 1 -- 0.81%
36 -- 1 -- 0.81%
37 -- 0 -- 0.00%
38 -- 0 -- 0.00%
39 -- 1 -- 0.81%
The guards seem to be fairly evenly distributed all the way through age 33 (though some of those 33 year olds are the same ones from the center list due to being listed at multiple positions...I'll have to do a OL crunch too). It appears that there's a sharp drop off after 33, thus, perhaps the first set of declines would happen before 33, say 30 or 31, and then very sharp declines over 34.
[Edited on 8-3-2011 by cowboymatt43]
cowboymatt43
Here are the age breakdowns in number per age and percentage of the tackles who were that certain age:
21 -- 2 -- 1.34%
22 -- 5 -- 3.36%
23 -- 14 -- 9.40%
24 -- 12 -- 8.05%
25 -- 16 -- 10.74%
26 -- 19 -- 12.75%
27 -- 16 -- 10.74%
28 -- 18 -- 12.08%
29 -- 13 -- 8.72%
30 -- 9 -- 6.04%
31 -- 6 -- 4.03%
32 -- 6 -- 4.03%
33 -- 4 -- 2.68%
34 -- 5 -- 3.36%
35 -- 2 -- 1.34%
36 -- 1 -- 0.67%
37 -- 0 -- 0.00%
38 -- 0 -- 0.00%
39 -- 1 -- 0.67%
The bulk here are 23-30. Perhaps after 30 the first declines his and then very sharp declines at 34.
August 03, 2011 at 06:27PM View BBCode
There were 149 tackles listed on NFL team rosters and their average age was 27.28.Here are the age breakdowns in number per age and percentage of the tackles who were that certain age:
21 -- 2 -- 1.34%
22 -- 5 -- 3.36%
23 -- 14 -- 9.40%
24 -- 12 -- 8.05%
25 -- 16 -- 10.74%
26 -- 19 -- 12.75%
27 -- 16 -- 10.74%
28 -- 18 -- 12.08%
29 -- 13 -- 8.72%
30 -- 9 -- 6.04%
31 -- 6 -- 4.03%
32 -- 6 -- 4.03%
33 -- 4 -- 2.68%
34 -- 5 -- 3.36%
35 -- 2 -- 1.34%
36 -- 1 -- 0.67%
37 -- 0 -- 0.00%
38 -- 0 -- 0.00%
39 -- 1 -- 0.67%
The bulk here are 23-30. Perhaps after 30 the first declines his and then very sharp declines at 34.
cowboymatt43
There were 314 offensive linemen listed on NFL team rosters and their average age was 27.27.
Here are the age breakdowns in number per age and percentage of the offensive linemen who were that certain age:
21 -- 3 -- 0.96%
22 -- 9 -- 2.87%
23 -- 29 -- 9.24%
24 -- 38 -- 12.10%
25 -- 31 -- 9.87%
26 -- 31 -- 9.87%
27 -- 33 -- 10.51%
28 -- 33 -- 10.51%
29 -- 25 -- 7.96%
30 -- 17 -- 5.41%
31 -- 11 -- 3.50%
32 -- 12 -- 3.82%
33 -- 17 -- 10.51%
34 -- 9 -- 2.87%
35 -- 3 -- 0.96%
36 -- 1 -- 0.32%
37 -- 1 -- 0.32%
38 -- 1 -- 0.32%
39 -- 1 -- 0.32%
23-30 represent the bulk of the offensive lineman. However, it is clear that players can play OL in the NFL until 33 with quite a bit of regularity. Thus, perhaps the first declines should begin at 29 for OL and sharp declines should hit at 33.
August 03, 2011 at 06:41PM View BBCode
Now I'll do all the OL together.There were 314 offensive linemen listed on NFL team rosters and their average age was 27.27.
Here are the age breakdowns in number per age and percentage of the offensive linemen who were that certain age:
21 -- 3 -- 0.96%
22 -- 9 -- 2.87%
23 -- 29 -- 9.24%
24 -- 38 -- 12.10%
25 -- 31 -- 9.87%
26 -- 31 -- 9.87%
27 -- 33 -- 10.51%
28 -- 33 -- 10.51%
29 -- 25 -- 7.96%
30 -- 17 -- 5.41%
31 -- 11 -- 3.50%
32 -- 12 -- 3.82%
33 -- 17 -- 10.51%
34 -- 9 -- 2.87%
35 -- 3 -- 0.96%
36 -- 1 -- 0.32%
37 -- 1 -- 0.32%
38 -- 1 -- 0.32%
39 -- 1 -- 0.32%
23-30 represent the bulk of the offensive lineman. However, it is clear that players can play OL in the NFL until 33 with quite a bit of regularity. Thus, perhaps the first declines should begin at 29 for OL and sharp declines should hit at 33.
cowboymatt43
There were 376 DBs listed on NFL team rosters and their average age was 25.97.
Here are the age breakdowns in number per age and percentage of the DBs who were that certain age:
21 -- 3 -- 0.80%
22 -- 28 -- 7.45%
23 -- 53 -- 14.10%
24 -- 48 -- 12.77%
25 -- 59 -- 15.69%
26 -- 38 -- 10.11%
27 -- 36 -- 9.57%
28 -- 35 -- 9.31%
29 -- 23 -- 6.12%
30 -- 14 -- 3.72%
31 -- 11 -- 2.93%
32 -- 8 -- 2.13%
33 -- 2 -- 0.53%
34 -- 2 -- 0.53%
35 -- 3 -- 0.80%
36 -- 1 -- 0.27%
37 -- 2 -- 0.53%
The bulk are ages 22-28 and there aren't many who play beyond 30. Thus, perhaps small declines should start at 27 and sharp declines should hit at 30.
August 03, 2011 at 06:54PM View BBCode
Next are DBs.There were 376 DBs listed on NFL team rosters and their average age was 25.97.
Here are the age breakdowns in number per age and percentage of the DBs who were that certain age:
21 -- 3 -- 0.80%
22 -- 28 -- 7.45%
23 -- 53 -- 14.10%
24 -- 48 -- 12.77%
25 -- 59 -- 15.69%
26 -- 38 -- 10.11%
27 -- 36 -- 9.57%
28 -- 35 -- 9.31%
29 -- 23 -- 6.12%
30 -- 14 -- 3.72%
31 -- 11 -- 2.93%
32 -- 8 -- 2.13%
33 -- 2 -- 0.53%
34 -- 2 -- 0.53%
35 -- 3 -- 0.80%
36 -- 1 -- 0.27%
37 -- 2 -- 0.53%
The bulk are ages 22-28 and there aren't many who play beyond 30. Thus, perhaps small declines should start at 27 and sharp declines should hit at 30.
cowboymatt43
There were 182 DEs listed on NFL team rosters and their average age was 27.05.
Here are the age breakdowns in number per age and percentage of the DEs who were that certain age:
21 -- 3 -- 1.64%
22 -- 7 -- 3.83%
23 -- 14 -- 7.65%
24 -- 23 -- 12.57%
25 -- 18 -- 9.84%
26 -- 20 -- 10.93%
27 -- 16 -- 8.74%
28 -- 14 -- 7.65%
29 -- 17 -- 9.29%
30 -- 10 -- 5.46%
31 -- 12 -- 6.56%
32 -- 7 -- 3.83%
33 -- 7 -- 3.83%
34 -- 1 -- 0.55%
35 -- 2 -- 1.09%
36 -- 2 -- 1.09%
37 -- 1 -- 0.55%
The bulk is between 23-29 and there's a sharp drop off at 33. Thus, small declines should begin at 28 and sharp ones at 33.
August 03, 2011 at 07:04PM View formatted
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Next are DEs.
There were 182 DEs listed on NFL team rosters and their average age was 27.05.
Here are the age breakdowns in number per age and percentage of the DEs who were that certain age:
21 -- 3 -- 1.64%
22 -- 7 -- 3.83%
23 -- 14 -- 7.65%
24 -- 23 -- 12.57%
25 -- 18 -- 9.84%
26 -- 20 -- 10.93%
27 -- 16 -- 8.74%
28 -- 14 -- 7.65%
29 -- 17 -- 9.29%
30 -- 10 -- 5.46%
31 -- 12 -- 6.56%
32 -- 7 -- 3.83%
33 -- 7 -- 3.83%
34 -- 1 -- 0.55%
35 -- 2 -- 1.09%
36 -- 2 -- 1.09%
37 -- 1 -- 0.55%
The bulk is between 23-29 and there's a sharp drop off at 33. Thus, small declines should begin at 28 and sharp ones at 33.
cowboymatt43
There were 172 DT/NTs listed on NFL team rosters and their average age was 26.72.
Here are the age breakdowns in number per age and percentage of the DT/NTs who were that certain age:
21 -- 1 -- 0.58%
22 -- 10 -- 5.81%
23 -- 22 -- 12.79%
24 -- 22 -- 12.79%
25 -- 22 -- 12.79%
26 -- 14 -- 8.14%
27 -- 23 -- 13.37%
28 -- 5 -- 2.91%
29 -- 14 -- 8.14%
30 -- 11 -- 6.34%
31 -- 13 -- 7.56%
32 -- 4 -- 2.33%
33 -- 3 -- 1.74%
34 -- 4 -- 2.33%
35 -- 2 -- 1.16%
36 -- 1 -- 0.58%
37 -- 0 -- 0.00%
38 -- 1 -- 0.58%
The bulk is between 23-29 and there's a sharp drop off after 31. Thus, small declines should begin at 28 and more pronounced one should begin at 31.
August 03, 2011 at 07:15PM View BBCode
Next are DT/NTs.There were 172 DT/NTs listed on NFL team rosters and their average age was 26.72.
Here are the age breakdowns in number per age and percentage of the DT/NTs who were that certain age:
21 -- 1 -- 0.58%
22 -- 10 -- 5.81%
23 -- 22 -- 12.79%
24 -- 22 -- 12.79%
25 -- 22 -- 12.79%
26 -- 14 -- 8.14%
27 -- 23 -- 13.37%
28 -- 5 -- 2.91%
29 -- 14 -- 8.14%
30 -- 11 -- 6.34%
31 -- 13 -- 7.56%
32 -- 4 -- 2.33%
33 -- 3 -- 1.74%
34 -- 4 -- 2.33%
35 -- 2 -- 1.16%
36 -- 1 -- 0.58%
37 -- 0 -- 0.00%
38 -- 1 -- 0.58%
The bulk is between 23-29 and there's a sharp drop off after 31. Thus, small declines should begin at 28 and more pronounced one should begin at 31.
Admin
The average age is 25.5. I expect a lot of owners dumped older players and drafted young so the 1 year lower average is sort of expected.
I started to pull together average ages by position and realized that for an initial draft pool this is meaningless. We won't be able to get meaningful data until the initial pool's all been retired or waived.
But I can use these numbers to perhaps create a more realistric age distribution in the initial pool. Right now only RB's and QB's get special age considerations, the rest are generated according to a distribution curve that matched all players in 2010, regardless of position. Then, however, players are generated as college freshmen and "aged" to their proper ages by going through years of simulated improves and declines, so this skews things somewhat: a player generated to be 35 but who's freshman taken level is a C- is going to hit retirement-level skills by 30 and would never have been in any reasonable draft pool at 35. Hm.
-Chris
August 03, 2011 at 07:30PM View BBCode
Looking at Gamma right now, looking only at players on teams:The average age is 25.5. I expect a lot of owners dumped older players and drafted young so the 1 year lower average is sort of expected.
I started to pull together average ages by position and realized that for an initial draft pool this is meaningless. We won't be able to get meaningful data until the initial pool's all been retired or waived.
But I can use these numbers to perhaps create a more realistric age distribution in the initial pool. Right now only RB's and QB's get special age considerations, the rest are generated according to a distribution curve that matched all players in 2010, regardless of position. Then, however, players are generated as college freshmen and "aged" to their proper ages by going through years of simulated improves and declines, so this skews things somewhat: a player generated to be 35 but who's freshman taken level is a C- is going to hit retirement-level skills by 30 and would never have been in any reasonable draft pool at 35. Hm.
-Chris
cowboymatt43
There were 266 LBs listed on NFL team rosters and their average age was 26.52.
Here are the age breakdowns in number per age and percentage of the LBs who were that certain age:
21 -- 1 -- 0.38%
22 -- 14 -- 5.26%
23 -- 31 -- 11.65%
24 -- 38 -- 14.29%
25 -- 34 -- 12.78%
26 -- 35 -- 13.16%
27 -- 26 -- 9.77%
28 -- 24 -- 9.02%
29 -- 15 -- 5.64%
30 -- 14 -- 5.26%
31 -- 10 -- 3.76%
32 -- 8 -- 3.01%
33 -- 7 -- 2.63%
34 -- 3 -- 1.13%
35 -- 5 -- 1.88%
36 -- 0 -- 0.00%
37 -- 0 -- 0.00%
38 -- 1 -- 0.38%
The bulk is clearly between 23-28 but lots of LBs play until they are 31 as well. Thus, small declines should begin at 27 and sharp ones at 31.
August 03, 2011 at 07:37PM View BBCode
Next are LBs.There were 266 LBs listed on NFL team rosters and their average age was 26.52.
Here are the age breakdowns in number per age and percentage of the LBs who were that certain age:
21 -- 1 -- 0.38%
22 -- 14 -- 5.26%
23 -- 31 -- 11.65%
24 -- 38 -- 14.29%
25 -- 34 -- 12.78%
26 -- 35 -- 13.16%
27 -- 26 -- 9.77%
28 -- 24 -- 9.02%
29 -- 15 -- 5.64%
30 -- 14 -- 5.26%
31 -- 10 -- 3.76%
32 -- 8 -- 3.01%
33 -- 7 -- 2.63%
34 -- 3 -- 1.13%
35 -- 5 -- 1.88%
36 -- 0 -- 0.00%
37 -- 0 -- 0.00%
38 -- 1 -- 0.38%
The bulk is clearly between 23-28 but lots of LBs play until they are 31 as well. Thus, small declines should begin at 27 and sharp ones at 31.
cowboymatt43
August 03, 2011 at 07:39PM View BBCode
Chris, I'm just throwing these numbers out there and giving my own take on how they might translate to this game. I thought that maybe it would be helpful!
cowboymatt43
There were 17 FBs listed on NFL team rosters (wow! the NFL sure has changed!) and their average age was 29.29.
Here are the age breakdowns in number per age and percentage of the FBs who were that certain age:
24 -- 1 -- 5.88%
25 -- 1 -- 5.88%
26 -- 1 -- 5.88%
27 -- 3 -- 17.65%
28 -- 2 -- 11.77%
29 -- 2 -- 11.77%
30 -- 1 -- 5.88%
31 -- 2 -- 11.77%
32 -- 2 -- 11.77%
33 -- 1 -- 5.88%
39 -- 1 -- 5.88%
Not much of anything can be extrapolated from this data because it is so limited. Besides, many teams use their TEs as FBs these days anyway, freeing up a roster spot.
[Edited on 8-3-2011 by cowboymatt43]
August 03, 2011 at 07:52PM View BBCode
Next are FBs.There were 17 FBs listed on NFL team rosters (wow! the NFL sure has changed!) and their average age was 29.29.
Here are the age breakdowns in number per age and percentage of the FBs who were that certain age:
24 -- 1 -- 5.88%
25 -- 1 -- 5.88%
26 -- 1 -- 5.88%
27 -- 3 -- 17.65%
28 -- 2 -- 11.77%
29 -- 2 -- 11.77%
30 -- 1 -- 5.88%
31 -- 2 -- 11.77%
32 -- 2 -- 11.77%
33 -- 1 -- 5.88%
39 -- 1 -- 5.88%
Not much of anything can be extrapolated from this data because it is so limited. Besides, many teams use their TEs as FBs these days anyway, freeing up a roster spot.
[Edited on 8-3-2011 by cowboymatt43]
cowboymatt43
There were 122 Tes listed on NFL team rosters and their average age was 26.69.
Here are the age breakdowns in number per age and percentage of the TEs who were that certain age:
21 -- 2 -- 1.64%
22 -- 7 -- 5.74%
23 -- 15 -- 12.30%
24 -- 11 -- 9.02%
25 -- 21 -- 17.21%
26 -- 15 -- 12.30%
27 -- 9 -- 7.38%
28 -- 9 -- 7.38%
29 -- 4 -- 3.28%
30 -- 8 -- 6.56%
31 -- 8 -- 6.56%
32 -- 1 -- 0.82%
33 -- 5 -- 4.10%
34 -- 5 -- 4.10%
35 -- 2 -- 1.64%
23-28 is clearly the bulk, but 29-31 are pretty populated too. Perhaps for TEs small declines should begin at 29 or 30 and then more significant ones at 32 or so.
[Edited on 8-3-2011 by cowboymatt43]
August 03, 2011 at 08:54PM View BBCode
Now for TEs.There were 122 Tes listed on NFL team rosters and their average age was 26.69.
Here are the age breakdowns in number per age and percentage of the TEs who were that certain age:
21 -- 2 -- 1.64%
22 -- 7 -- 5.74%
23 -- 15 -- 12.30%
24 -- 11 -- 9.02%
25 -- 21 -- 17.21%
26 -- 15 -- 12.30%
27 -- 9 -- 7.38%
28 -- 9 -- 7.38%
29 -- 4 -- 3.28%
30 -- 8 -- 6.56%
31 -- 8 -- 6.56%
32 -- 1 -- 0.82%
33 -- 5 -- 4.10%
34 -- 5 -- 4.10%
35 -- 2 -- 1.64%
23-28 is clearly the bulk, but 29-31 are pretty populated too. Perhaps for TEs small declines should begin at 29 or 30 and then more significant ones at 32 or so.
[Edited on 8-3-2011 by cowboymatt43]
cowboymatt43
There were 83 QBs listed on NFL team rosters and their average age was 28.35.
Here are the age breakdowns in number per age and percentage of the QBs who were that certain age:
22 -- 4 -- 4.82%
23 -- 6 -- 7.23%
24 -- 5 -- 6.02%
25 -- 10 -- 12.05%
26 -- 7 -- 8.43%
27 -- 13 -- 15.66%
28 -- 5 -- 6.02%
29 -- 6 -- 7.23%
30 -- 6 -- 7.23%
31 -- 4 -- 4.82%
32 -- 2 -- 2.41%
33 -- 2 -- 2.41%
34 -- 4 -- 4.82%
35 -- 2 -- 2.41%
36 -- 1 -- 1.21%
37 -- 0 -- 0.00%
38 -- 3 -- 3.61%
39 -- 1 -- 1.21%
40 -- 1 -- 1.21%
41 -- 1 -- 1.21%
The ages from 23-30 contain the bulk of the QBs in the NFL, though, clearly, some guys can play much further into their 30s. Perhaps small declines should start after 29 and much larger ones at around 34.
[Edited on 8-3-2011 by cowboymatt43]
August 03, 2011 at 09:05PM View BBCode
Next are QBs.There were 83 QBs listed on NFL team rosters and their average age was 28.35.
Here are the age breakdowns in number per age and percentage of the QBs who were that certain age:
22 -- 4 -- 4.82%
23 -- 6 -- 7.23%
24 -- 5 -- 6.02%
25 -- 10 -- 12.05%
26 -- 7 -- 8.43%
27 -- 13 -- 15.66%
28 -- 5 -- 6.02%
29 -- 6 -- 7.23%
30 -- 6 -- 7.23%
31 -- 4 -- 4.82%
32 -- 2 -- 2.41%
33 -- 2 -- 2.41%
34 -- 4 -- 4.82%
35 -- 2 -- 2.41%
36 -- 1 -- 1.21%
37 -- 0 -- 0.00%
38 -- 3 -- 3.61%
39 -- 1 -- 1.21%
40 -- 1 -- 1.21%
41 -- 1 -- 1.21%
The ages from 23-30 contain the bulk of the QBs in the NFL, though, clearly, some guys can play much further into their 30s. Perhaps small declines should start after 29 and much larger ones at around 34.
[Edited on 8-3-2011 by cowboymatt43]
cowboymatt43
There were 209 WRs listed on NFL team rosters and their average age was 26.04.
Here are the age breakdowns in number per age and percentage of the WRs who were that certain age:
21 -- 2 -- 0.96%
22 -- 14 -- 6.70%
23 -- 34 -- 16.27%
24 -- 33 -- 15.80%
25 -- 28 -- 13.40%
26 -- 18 -- 8.61%
27 -- 26 -- 12.44%
28 -- 11 -- 5.26%
29 -- 14 -- 6.70%
30 -- 8 -- 3.83%
31 -- 7 -- 3.49%
32 -- 4 -- 1.91%
33 -- 2 -- 0.96%
34 -- 3 -- 1.44%
35 -- 2 -- 0.96%
36 -- 1 -- 0.48%
37 -- 1 -- 0.48%
38 -- 0 -- 0.00%
39 -- 1 -- 0.48%
The bulk of these players are 23-27 with a good number of WRs staying around until 29. Thus, small declines should come in at 27 and larger ones at 30.
[Edited on 8-3-2011 by cowboymatt43]
August 03, 2011 at 09:17PM View BBCode
WRs are next!There were 209 WRs listed on NFL team rosters and their average age was 26.04.
Here are the age breakdowns in number per age and percentage of the WRs who were that certain age:
21 -- 2 -- 0.96%
22 -- 14 -- 6.70%
23 -- 34 -- 16.27%
24 -- 33 -- 15.80%
25 -- 28 -- 13.40%
26 -- 18 -- 8.61%
27 -- 26 -- 12.44%
28 -- 11 -- 5.26%
29 -- 14 -- 6.70%
30 -- 8 -- 3.83%
31 -- 7 -- 3.49%
32 -- 4 -- 1.91%
33 -- 2 -- 0.96%
34 -- 3 -- 1.44%
35 -- 2 -- 0.96%
36 -- 1 -- 0.48%
37 -- 1 -- 0.48%
38 -- 0 -- 0.00%
39 -- 1 -- 0.48%
The bulk of these players are 23-27 with a good number of WRs staying around until 29. Thus, small declines should come in at 27 and larger ones at 30.
[Edited on 8-3-2011 by cowboymatt43]
cowboymatt43
There were 155 RBs listed on NFL team rosters and their average age was 25.90.
Here are the age breakdowns in number per age and percentage of the RBs who were that certain age:
21 -- 2 -- 1.29%
22 -- 7 -- 4.52%
23 -- 19 -- 12.26%
24 -- 28 -- 18.06%
25 -- 31 -- 20.00%
26 -- 17 -- 10.97%
27 -- 14 -- 9.03%
28 -- 10 -- 6.45%
29 -- 10 -- 6.45%
30 -- 2 -- 1.29%
31 -- 9 -- 5.81%
32 -- 3 -- 1.94%
33 -- 2 -- 1.29%
34 -- 2 -- 1.29%
The bulk of these are 23-27, though 24-25 make up a huge percentage of the overall RBs. A few guys play beyond 30, but not many. Thus, small declines should begin at 27 and very large declines should hit after 30.
[Edited on 8-3-2011 by cowboymatt43]
August 03, 2011 at 09:26PM View BBCode
Second to last are RBs!There were 155 RBs listed on NFL team rosters and their average age was 25.90.
Here are the age breakdowns in number per age and percentage of the RBs who were that certain age:
21 -- 2 -- 1.29%
22 -- 7 -- 4.52%
23 -- 19 -- 12.26%
24 -- 28 -- 18.06%
25 -- 31 -- 20.00%
26 -- 17 -- 10.97%
27 -- 14 -- 9.03%
28 -- 10 -- 6.45%
29 -- 10 -- 6.45%
30 -- 2 -- 1.29%
31 -- 9 -- 5.81%
32 -- 3 -- 1.94%
33 -- 2 -- 1.29%
34 -- 2 -- 1.29%
The bulk of these are 23-27, though 24-25 make up a huge percentage of the overall RBs. A few guys play beyond 30, but not many. Thus, small declines should begin at 27 and very large declines should hit after 30.
[Edited on 8-3-2011 by cowboymatt43]
cowboymatt43
There were 80 K/Ps listed on NFL team rosters and their average age was 29.74.
Here are the age breakdowns in number per age and percentage of the K/Ps who were that certain age:
22 -- 1 -- 1.25%
23 -- 6 -- 7.50%
24 -- 7 -- 8.75%
25 -- 5 -- 6.25%
26 -- 8 -- 10.00%
27 -- 1 -- 1.25%
28 -- 13 -- 16.25%
29 -- 3 -- 3.75%
30 -- 4 -- 5.00%
31 -- 4 -- 5.00%
32 -- 5 -- 6.25%
33 -- 3 -- 3.75%
34 -- 6 -- 7.50%
35 -- 2 -- 2.50%
36 -- 3 -- 3.75%
37 -- 4 -- 5.00%
38 -- 1 -- 1.25%
39 -- 0 -- 0.00%
40 -- 1 -- 1.25%
41 -- 1 -- 1.25%
42 -- 1 -- 1.25%
43 -- 0 -- 0.00%
44 -- 0 -- 0.00%
45 -- 1 -- 1.25%
This data is kind of hard to interpret since K/Ps play so long. If we split the data into four age ranges of six years each, that may help.
22-27 -- 28 -- 35.00%
28-33 -- 32 -- 40.00%
34-39 -- 16 -- 20.00%
40-45 -- 4 -- 5.00%
Looking at the data this way we could say that small declines need to happen at age 33 and large declines somewhere in the 34-39 age range (I would say after 35).
August 03, 2011 at 09:44PM View BBCode
Last are kickers and punters.There were 80 K/Ps listed on NFL team rosters and their average age was 29.74.
Here are the age breakdowns in number per age and percentage of the K/Ps who were that certain age:
22 -- 1 -- 1.25%
23 -- 6 -- 7.50%
24 -- 7 -- 8.75%
25 -- 5 -- 6.25%
26 -- 8 -- 10.00%
27 -- 1 -- 1.25%
28 -- 13 -- 16.25%
29 -- 3 -- 3.75%
30 -- 4 -- 5.00%
31 -- 4 -- 5.00%
32 -- 5 -- 6.25%
33 -- 3 -- 3.75%
34 -- 6 -- 7.50%
35 -- 2 -- 2.50%
36 -- 3 -- 3.75%
37 -- 4 -- 5.00%
38 -- 1 -- 1.25%
39 -- 0 -- 0.00%
40 -- 1 -- 1.25%
41 -- 1 -- 1.25%
42 -- 1 -- 1.25%
43 -- 0 -- 0.00%
44 -- 0 -- 0.00%
45 -- 1 -- 1.25%
This data is kind of hard to interpret since K/Ps play so long. If we split the data into four age ranges of six years each, that may help.
22-27 -- 28 -- 35.00%
28-33 -- 32 -- 40.00%
34-39 -- 16 -- 20.00%
40-45 -- 4 -- 5.00%
Looking at the data this way we could say that small declines need to happen at age 33 and large declines somewhere in the 34-39 age range (I would say after 35).
cowboymatt43
I think that this data could be used to think about when to start players on their serious declines, which is something that should probably vary from position to position.
August 03, 2011 at 09:45PM View BBCode
Originally posted by Admin
Looking at Gamma right now, looking only at players on teams:
The average age is 25.5. I expect a lot of owners dumped older players and drafted young so the 1 year lower average is sort of expected.
I started to pull together average ages by position and realized that for an initial draft pool this is meaningless. We won't be able to get meaningful data until the initial pool's all been retired or waived.
But I can use these numbers to perhaps create a more realistric age distribution in the initial pool. Right now only RB's and QB's get special age considerations, the rest are generated according to a distribution curve that matched all players in 2010, regardless of position. Then, however, players are generated as college freshmen and "aged" to their proper ages by going through years of simulated improves and declines, so this skews things somewhat: a player generated to be 35 but who's freshman taken level is a C- is going to hit retirement-level skills by 30 and would never have been in any reasonable draft pool at 35. Hm.
-Chris
I think that this data could be used to think about when to start players on their serious declines, which is something that should probably vary from position to position.
redcped
Yes, clearly some guys lose key skills rapidly at those positions, but what that veteran QB lacks in speed, he makes up for in Execution - generally. Why do teams keep signing a guy like Favre? Not because he throws as hard or runs as well as he used to, but he still (occasionally anyway) could do that intangible thing called "making plays."
Kurt Warner was still throwing the ball really well when he retired, too.
And there's also the mentoring factor, which we don't have in play here. But there aren't many teams in the NFL with three young QBs. There's always one veteran who plays a key role in helping the young guy learn the position.
And old kickers seem to be excellent in execution and accuracy, even if they lose a little power.
So we should think about what skills might go up as a player ages, too.
August 03, 2011 at 10:17PM View BBCode
It's worth giving some thought to why some guys at positions like QB/K/P are still common in their late 30s and early 40s and not be so quick to send them into decline.Yes, clearly some guys lose key skills rapidly at those positions, but what that veteran QB lacks in speed, he makes up for in Execution - generally. Why do teams keep signing a guy like Favre? Not because he throws as hard or runs as well as he used to, but he still (occasionally anyway) could do that intangible thing called "making plays."
Kurt Warner was still throwing the ball really well when he retired, too.
And there's also the mentoring factor, which we don't have in play here. But there aren't many teams in the NFL with three young QBs. There's always one veteran who plays a key role in helping the young guy learn the position.
And old kickers seem to be excellent in execution and accuracy, even if they lose a little power.
So we should think about what skills might go up as a player ages, too.
cowboymatt43
I think in both of their cases, speaking in sim football language, their execution, accuracy, and attitude skills were high enough to begin with that their declines in power, speed, agility, etc were mitigated. Favre peaked years ago and he's been playing off of fumes ever since. Granted, Favre fumes are better than the liquid gas most guys use...but still, Favre hasn't been what he used to be for a long time. Why? He's not as moble and his arm isn't as strong. Sure, he can make up for this to some degree with his fantastic throwing accuracy and execution...but the reaper comes for us all eventually.
To put it simply: Guys who play for a long time in the NFL decline just like everyone else. However, they have other important very high level skills (like accuracy, attitude, execution, etc) which don't necessarily decline at the same rate if at all that help soften the impact of their diminishing physical abilities.
August 03, 2011 at 10:29PM View BBCode
I'm not sure if Favre's throwing accuracy or his execution have actually gotten better over the years. And I don't think that Matt Turk's kicking accuracy and execution have gotten better as a punter either.I think in both of their cases, speaking in sim football language, their execution, accuracy, and attitude skills were high enough to begin with that their declines in power, speed, agility, etc were mitigated. Favre peaked years ago and he's been playing off of fumes ever since. Granted, Favre fumes are better than the liquid gas most guys use...but still, Favre hasn't been what he used to be for a long time. Why? He's not as moble and his arm isn't as strong. Sure, he can make up for this to some degree with his fantastic throwing accuracy and execution...but the reaper comes for us all eventually.
To put it simply: Guys who play for a long time in the NFL decline just like everyone else. However, they have other important very high level skills (like accuracy, attitude, execution, etc) which don't necessarily decline at the same rate if at all that help soften the impact of their diminishing physical abilities.
cowboymatt43
We can't make rules in our sim based on a few outliers.
August 03, 2011 at 10:30PM View BBCode
Besides, guys like Joey Galloway, Brett Favre, Matt Turk, Mark Brunell, and other old players are the exceptions to the rule. Very few guys get to the places where those guys are now. Very few.We can't make rules in our sim based on a few outliers.
redcped
I agree, but that doesn't mean we do it all off averages either.
We don't really care too much about the guys who are cut the first week of camp, nor do we want to overlook the guys who play well into their late 30s and 40s.
This is where the variable development equations come in, and I think Chris is already working along those lines.
My point is simply this: There should, now and then, be players who are outliers. They should maintain key skills that allow them to be effective, even preferable to a much younger player. Occasionally. A few guys across the league. If that's possible.
August 03, 2011 at 11:55PM View BBCode
Originally posted by cowboymatt43
Besides, guys like Joey Galloway, Brett Favre, Matt Turk, Mark Brunell, and other old players are the exceptions to the rule. Very few guys get to the places where those guys are now. Very few.
We can't make rules in our sim based on a few outliers.
I agree, but that doesn't mean we do it all off averages either.
We don't really care too much about the guys who are cut the first week of camp, nor do we want to overlook the guys who play well into their late 30s and 40s.
This is where the variable development equations come in, and I think Chris is already working along those lines.
My point is simply this: There should, now and then, be players who are outliers. They should maintain key skills that allow them to be effective, even preferable to a much younger player. Occasionally. A few guys across the league. If that's possible.
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