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RichNYC1
Does Anyone Understand the
July 05, 2011 at 08:50PM View formatted
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What actually happens? Does the computer just let the other team win, does it just make the other team better? Ive heard the reasoning, and I think its ridiculous, but maybe I dont understand it, anyone?
KLKRTR
Feel the same way.
July 05, 2011 at 11:27PM View BBCode
Originally posted by tworoosters
Not sure what you are referring to .
Feel the same way.
RichNYC1
The first season I was here you guys were talking about 28% of games being affected by the "Any Given Day factor". Its an NFL stat that says any team can beat any team 28% of the time. I cant find the thread, do I remember that correctly??? :puzzled:
July 06, 2011 at 12:38AM View BBCode
Sorry not sure why that doesnt say "Any Given Day".The first season I was here you guys were talking about 28% of games being affected by the "Any Given Day factor". Its an NFL stat that says any team can beat any team 28% of the time. I cant find the thread, do I remember that correctly??? :puzzled:
Hamilton2
July 06, 2011 at 02:05AM View BBCode
I remember the thread he is talking about. I do not remember the exact %. I do not remember the thread title. Sorry.
Admin
This 28% figure is not coded into the game in any way, of course. But random chance has more of a role in the outcome here than in baseball. Case in point: A well-coached team gets the ball deep in their territor and puts together a slow, long drive that puts it into the red zone. The drive eventually falters and a field goal kick is attempted. At this range the chance for a successful block is, let's say, half of 1 percent (the normal average chance for a block is 2.5%). But the defense manages to block it and recover the ball. Now usually the return here is going to be short or non-existent, but let's say again that the chance of a long return is .2% (2 out of 1000). Lo and behold, the random number comes up right and the blocked FG is returned for a touchdown. So the whole drive has now been undone by random chance.
This is just a fact of life in football. On any given play, there is almost always at least some chance of each possible outcome happening. Although the play results generator can work on any scale, for most plays I use 1000 "balls" in the selector, so unusual outcomes often have a 1 or 2 in 1000 chance of happening.
Note: The 56% number from the original article stuick in my head but may not be exactly correct, so I'm not going to be surprised if one of us goes back to the original article and find that it's actually 58% or 54%.
--Chris
July 06, 2011 at 02:24PM View BBCode
The theory was (this was based on something from the excellent Advanced NFL Stats site) that 56% of NFL games turn on pure chance as opposed to strategy. Dividing this in half gives us a theoretical 28% chance of any given team winning on any given Sunday no matter how good either team is. With football having such a short season and the playoffs being one game per round that leaves a lot of leeway for upsets.This 28% figure is not coded into the game in any way, of course. But random chance has more of a role in the outcome here than in baseball. Case in point: A well-coached team gets the ball deep in their territor and puts together a slow, long drive that puts it into the red zone. The drive eventually falters and a field goal kick is attempted. At this range the chance for a successful block is, let's say, half of 1 percent (the normal average chance for a block is 2.5%). But the defense manages to block it and recover the ball. Now usually the return here is going to be short or non-existent, but let's say again that the chance of a long return is .2% (2 out of 1000). Lo and behold, the random number comes up right and the blocked FG is returned for a touchdown. So the whole drive has now been undone by random chance.
This is just a fact of life in football. On any given play, there is almost always at least some chance of each possible outcome happening. Although the play results generator can work on any scale, for most plays I use 1000 "balls" in the selector, so unusual outcomes often have a 1 or 2 in 1000 chance of happening.
Note: The 56% number from the original article stuick in my head but may not be exactly correct, so I'm not going to be surprised if one of us goes back to the original article and find that it's actually 58% or 54%.
--Chris
Admin
--Chris
July 06, 2011 at 02:25PM View BBCode
So to answer the original question more succinctly: No, the sim doesn't do anything to make it happen, it's just illustrative of how often random results CAN happen.--Chris
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