 |
View Old Forum Thread
Old Forum Index » Sim Forums » Latest News » Home Field Advantage update
Admin
In MLB, looking at the retrosheet data, teams are 41729-35750 from 1960-2009, which is a .538 winning percentage. From 1980-2009 that looks like 22549-19353 which is also .538. So I think .538 should be our target.
It is important to keep in mind that stadiums were not in effect for some leagues in January. I'm going to review this data in May and see where it goes.
Tyson
Home Field Advantage update
March 10, 2010 at 06:48PM View BBCode
I just took a look at data from the sim to see how we are doing on home field advantage. In games played since January 16, 2010 the home team has won 308018 and lost 269496, which is about a .533 winning percentage.In MLB, looking at the retrosheet data, teams are 41729-35750 from 1960-2009, which is a .538 winning percentage. From 1980-2009 that looks like 22549-19353 which is also .538. So I think .538 should be our target.
It is important to keep in mind that stadiums were not in effect for some leagues in January. I'm going to review this data in May and see where it goes.
Tyson
Jughead
March 13, 2010 at 05:08AM View BBCode
I don't have the numbers in front of me, but the difference in winning percentage for me at home vs away, since stadiums were put in, is definitely higher than .066 (the difference between .533 and .467). This tells me that building my stadiums the way that I have has been to my advantage. The average is around .090, and it's been that way for my playoff teams as well as my rebuilding ones.
BKCUBS13
March 13, 2010 at 08:53AM View BBCode
You should also take a look into homefield advantage in the playoffs. I think it is a higher percentage in the playoffs than in the regular season in the MLB, and I think it should also follow suit in SD.
Beringer
March 13, 2010 at 04:59PM View BBCode
Right now the home pitchers get +2/+2 on velocity and control, and the home batters get +1 in all categories, is that correct?
PIAZZA_444
Yeah, I think it is more of an issue in the playoffs where the atmosphere is more electric and teams seasons rest on a few games.
March 13, 2010 at 11:19PM View BBCode
Originally posted by BKCUBS13
You should also take a look into homefield advantage in the playoffs. I think it is a higher percentage in the playoffs than in the regular season in the MLB, and I think it should also follow suit in SD.
Yeah, I think it is more of an issue in the playoffs where the atmosphere is more electric and teams seasons rest on a few games.
albiez
March 16, 2010 at 10:12AM View formatted
You are viewing the raw post code; this allows you to copy a message with BBCode formatting intact.
is .005 a statistically significant difference? Since we're talking about one half of one percent, it seems like it's fine unless the May data shows a huge difference.
Admin
I didn't look at playoffs this time, but when we did that comprehensive study about MLB data a few months back there didn't seem to be a difference in home field advantage for the regular season vs. the playoffs.
Beringer, that is correct.
I believe .005 is significant in this case with the sample size.
Tyson
March 16, 2010 at 03:27PM View BBCode
Jughead - point well taken. I probably shouldn't react to this data even in May - it will take time for people to get the hang of stadiums and use them to their advantage.I didn't look at playoffs this time, but when we did that comprehensive study about MLB data a few months back there didn't seem to be a difference in home field advantage for the regular season vs. the playoffs.
Beringer, that is correct.
I believe .005 is significant in this case with the sample size.
Tyson
Admin
At some point, we will likely increase the amount of effect stadiums have on game play, so I'm going to leave home field advantage alone again. I'll revisit this in November.
Tyson
July 09, 2010 at 05:45PM View BBCode
Update on this. I just looked at all games in all leagues since March 15th. The home team's record in regular season games was 715,136 - 626,949. That is a winning pct of .5329. We haven't moved much since the last update.At some point, we will likely increase the amount of effect stadiums have on game play, so I'm going to leave home field advantage alone again. I'll revisit this in November.
Tyson
Jughead
July 09, 2010 at 08:23PM View BBCode
What is the timetable for the inclusion of foul territory into the mix? That will add another variable as well.
Admin
Tyson
July 09, 2010 at 08:31PM View BBCode
No timetable as of yet. That is what I was alluding to above.Tyson
Kingturtle
July 10, 2010 at 03:21PM View BBCode
My stadium seems to be helping me. My Oakland Turtles of the Willie Stargell League went 39-42 (.481) at home and 26-55 (.321) on the road for the 1982 season.
KCLV
With customized stadiums, shouldn't owners be building the home field advantage into their teams?
It seems like customized stadiums would eliminate the need to bump the home team, since the home teams build their own advantage.
Just wondering.
July 10, 2010 at 09:32PM View BBCode
Is it necessary to have a fictional home field advantage bump?With customized stadiums, shouldn't owners be building the home field advantage into their teams?
It seems like customized stadiums would eliminate the need to bump the home team, since the home teams build their own advantage.
Just wondering.
Admin
Tyson
July 11, 2010 at 05:18PM View BBCode
Based on my data, it appears to be necessary. Based on studies I've read, it appears that home field advantage is due to batter's comfortability with the stadium.Tyson
celamantia
July 11, 2010 at 06:33PM View BBCode
I would think the defense's knowledge of the stadium helps too... there should be more outfield plus plays for the home team as they know exactly how to play the ball off the walls, etc.
KCLV
That's interesting. Why the pitching bump then, instead of hitters getting additions? Same thing--6 one way, half a dozen the other?
Also, what happens if a pitcher has maxed out in a category,such as velocity? Does he get an extra control bump, or nada?
That's a good point about outfield walls. But what if a guy played there 10 years and then got traded?
Maybe he should get a 'stadium bump' if he's played X numbers of games there. Now, we're getting complicated...:) ?
July 15, 2010 at 05:35AM View BBCode
Originally posted by Admin
Based on my data, it appears to be necessary. Based on studies I've read, it appears that home field advantage is due to batter's comfortability with the stadium.
Tyson
That's interesting. Why the pitching bump then, instead of hitters getting additions? Same thing--6 one way, half a dozen the other?
Also, what happens if a pitcher has maxed out in a category,such as velocity? Does he get an extra control bump, or nada?
That's a good point about outfield walls. But what if a guy played there 10 years and then got traded?
Maybe he should get a 'stadium bump' if he's played X numbers of games there. Now, we're getting complicated...:) ?
Admin
I could probably tweak a few things to make it more realistic. Like maybe the home field advantage is dependent on how many games a player has logged in your stadium as you have suggested.
Tyson
[Edited on 7-15-2010 by Admin]
July 15, 2010 at 04:36PM View BBCode
The study basically showed that batters who were familiar with a ballpark hit better. They tested different things and one of their methods was to look at players who played a lot in a stadium and got traded. They found that these guys still hit like they were at home. I think they also looked at how home batters did when they were playing in a brand new stadium (like the Mets or Yankees last year), they found there wasn't as great of a benefit. The other thing they looked at was same-city inter league play, to see whether "sleeping in your own bed" made a difference. It didn't seem to make a difference.I could probably tweak a few things to make it more realistic. Like maybe the home field advantage is dependent on how many games a player has logged in your stadium as you have suggested.
Tyson
[Edited on 7-15-2010 by Admin]
Admin
http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9854
Tyson
July 15, 2010 at 04:39PM View BBCode
Here's the study I was referring to:http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9854
Tyson
tjfla1
Gotta think anymore Home Field Advantage would be wiped out. Honestly if guys make a stadium and build the team to fit the stadium they should already be getting an advantage.
I play a team that has a stadium with 379 to Center Field and 298 down the lines. With my team of A+ Power Guys I hit about 4 HR a game
July 15, 2010 at 05:49PM View BBCode
What happens tho when u have a team that has a massive stadium and all there hitters are under A- Power??Gotta think anymore Home Field Advantage would be wiped out. Honestly if guys make a stadium and build the team to fit the stadium they should already be getting an advantage.
I play a team that has a stadium with 379 to Center Field and 298 down the lines. With my team of A+ Power Guys I hit about 4 HR a game
Admin
Tyson
July 15, 2010 at 06:08PM View BBCode
tjfla - based on the games I've been collecting data on, the stadium effect has been minimal to date. The winning percentage looks to be about what it was before.Tyson
Pages: 1